dorquemada Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Interesting that the 538 site has the Pats favored 52% to 48% and the Elo spread is only 1/2 point. When you have a data driven prediction mechanism, that's devoid of context, the blowouts against terrible teams make the Bills seem better than they are. I used to dabble in this, and ended up writing a routine that would only consider the first 13 points in a victory to try to control for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 They went 3-1 without their 2 BEST playersWe went 4-1 without our 2 BEST players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 We went 4-1 without our 2 BEST players Shady isn't the Bills best player in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Another crazy idea - Bring in Duke Williams and have him play MLB in place of Preston Brown. I like Preston Brown but I think he normally gets torched against those middle passes that the Patriots like to throw. Let Lorenzo or Zach Brown make the D calls on the field. And have Duke play aggressive and really attack the ball in the passing game. He also might make a better/faster "A" gap blitzer than Preston Brown. No idea if Duke would understand Preston's position well enough to be able to play it for a game though - probably not. I know it will never happen. Just a crazy idea. Trying to throw things against the wall to see what sticks when playing against the Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 (edited) Shady isn't the Bills best player in your opinion?no, Watkins is the most talented player on offense and is a total game changer when he is in there. McCoy is a stud and can be 1B. The dropoff between Watkins and the other WRs on this team is startling. Without Watkins it makes the offense predictable and one dimensional to game plan for. Fwiw they had neither last week. Edited October 28, 2016 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan2313 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Shady isn't the Bills best player in your opinion? Oh alright. Our 2nd and 3rd best player and our 1st and 2nd rd pick. Yea, lets nitpick on player rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TC in St. Louis Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Pretty much every person in America is picking the Pats. There are two guys at work picking the Bills, but one of them is Bosnian and thinks soccer is football. The other guy is the kind of guy who always gets it wrong. Whenever everybody picks one way, it goes the other way. Think back to the Arizona game. We had just been humiliated by the Jets and we were going to get lambasted by the Cardinals. But we beat the hell out of them. bottom line: I'll be at the Fox and Hounds in Chesterfield, watching the game with the same dedicated Bills fans that watched last week's debacle. We never give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarRifleman Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 I'm watching. To hell with the wuss talk. Hope the Bills kick the snot out of NE so we put this garbage talk to bed. Agree. On any given Sunday. stuff can happen. I don't want to hear who we don't have in the lineup. Who they have in the lineup. The Bills are capable of playing great football too. Go Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Another crazy idea - Bring in Duke Williams and have him play MLB in place of Preston Brown. I like Preston Brown but I think he normally gets torched against those middle passes that the Patriots like to throw. Let Lorenzo or Zach Brown make the D calls on the field. And have Duke play aggressive and really attack the ball in the passing game. He also might make a better/faster "A" gap blitzer than Preston Brown. No idea if Duke would understand Preston's position well enough to be able to play it for a game though - probably not. I know it will never happen. Just a crazy idea. Trying to throw things against the wall to see what sticks when playing against the Patriots. you lost me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted October 28, 2016 Author Share Posted October 28, 2016 What's weird about that? Vegas adjusts to keep the betting fairly even. Just means John Q. Betting Public was betting on the Bills a little more than expected. John Q Betting Public doesn't change the line. Big money does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 no, Watkins is the most talented player on offense and is a total game changer when he is in there. McCoy is a stud and can be 1B. The dropoff between Watkins and the other WRs on this team is startling. Without Watkins it makes the offense predictable and one dimensional to game plan for. Fwiw they had neither last week. I think Shady would be 1A in your scenario, but I can see the other way as well. Look at the difference between the first half last week with Shady and the 2nd half without if you want to see what difference he makes. Shady was in last week, but also a good point that he was not himself in the first half and missed pretty much the entire second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Another crazy idea - Bring in Duke Williams and have him play MLB in place of Preston Brown. I like Preston Brown but I think he normally gets torched against those middle passes that the Patriots like to throw. Let Lorenzo or Zach Brown make the D calls on the field. And have Duke play aggressive and really attack the ball in the passing game. He also might make a better/faster "A" gap blitzer than Preston Brown. No idea if Duke would understand Preston's position well enough to be able to play it for a game though - probably not. I know it will never happen. Just a crazy idea. Trying to throw things against the wall to see what sticks when playing against the Patriots. I was reading this and thinking, that might be the best use of him yet! Crazy Dave at it again !! you lost me Down in the box 4-2-5 he means Agree. On any given Sunday. stuff can happen. I don't want to hear who we don't have in the lineup. Who they have in the lineup. The Bills are capable of playing great football too. Go Bills. GO BILLS !!!!!! Heck YES. Great FAN post RWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloMatt Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 From what they are saying the PLAYERS believe they can win. It starts there. Go Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 They went 3-1 without their 2 BEST players 3 -- Ninkovich was out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarRifleman Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 I was reading this and thinking, that might be the best use of him yet! Crazy Dave at it again !! Down in the box 4-2-5 he means GO BILLS !!!!!! Heck YES. Great FAN post RWR Thanks 3rd & 12. Game at the Ralph, oops, New Era, players feeding off of the fan frenzy, David home against Goliath. Anything can happen if you put out the good ju ju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Mud Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 This game will seem like DejaVu when all is said and done. The Patriots haven't been swept by a division opponent in years, and they are averaging a 24 pt margin of victory in the decisive game to avoid a season sweep. Going by the numbers, key injuries and recent history. A 37-13 victory by the Patriots seems inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Shady looks to be out. We win this game, we need to figure out where the Rex statue goes. It's gonna be bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 From what they are saying the PLAYERS believe they can win. It starts there. Go Buffalo! I always chuckle at this. Have you seen a professional sports team where the players didn't believe they can win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 I always chuckle at this. Have you seen a professional sports team where the players didn't believe they can win? i just watched one last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 i just watched one last night. The players came out and said they couldn't win? I've never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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