WEEK 7 - ALL 22 O-LINE/ QB UNFORCED ERROR REVIEW

[Bocephuz]

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not?

I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did /
How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate)

Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field.

DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play)


_______ ______________________

TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 40 - (last week was 31 total pass plays for reference)

LINE BREAKDOWNS: 12/40 snaps - or 30% of snaps. (last week was 16%. Essentially the line was twice as bad this week as they were last week). In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 30% of his drop backs. Looking back through the history of my doing this analysis.. 30% is the worst breakdown percentage since the 2015 Texans game which was a 28% breakdown rate.. and is the worst percentage I have seen.. which is saying a lot based on some of the O Line train wreck performances from last year. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 28/40 snaps or 70% - (last week was 84%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 70% of the time

UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 5/28 snaps or 18% (last week was 12%). Based on my 2015 studies if you have 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game your odds of winning are solid. TT had 5 unforced errors by my count.. so he was right on the borderline.

Bottom Line:

1ST HALF PASS PROTECT WAS OK - The O Line held up reasonably well in the 1st half other than Jordan Mills getting beaten a couple of times by Wake

2ND HALF PASS PROTECT WAS SCARY BAD - 10 of the 12 pass protect breakdowns occurred in the 2nd half. There were multiple offenders. Mills continued to struggle, with Miller being the next worst offender. Wood, Incognito and even the usually solid Cordy Glenn all had moments when they struggled with pass protection.

.

MILLS AND SPEED RUSH - Last week against the 49ers I mentioned how Mills was never really cleanly beaten by his man but he was making me nervous giving up a lot of ground on outside speed rushes. This week it caught up to him. Cameron Wake consistently beat him around the outside with speed rushes and Mills was pretty much a tire fire for most of the day. I'm hoping it's just a one off matchup issue as Wake is a premier talent who can get low and bend around the edge with the best of them. Either way.. I do think the book is out on Mills now unfortunately.. he can be beat with speed.

 

 

 

MILLER STRUGGLES IN 2ND HALF - John Miller has been playing exceptionally well this year but last Sunday he was overmatched by Suh on several plays.. and looked somewhat lost or confused on some others. The play below shows him getting beaten by Suh ..forcing a TT scramble.

 

 

TYROD HAS A COMPLETE GAME.. BUT COMMITS ONE CRITICAL UNFORCED ERROR - Last week I talked about how we were all waiting for a single game where TT puts it all together and displays all the types of throws he is capable of making in one game. This week it all came together. When I say "complete" game I don't mean a perfect game. What I mean by "complete" is a game where TT executes a variety of different throws that illustrate his work towards addressing his issues.

 

Many have criticized him for not attacking the deep middle. There were several examples of him showing great footwork, pocket presence and executing tough intermediate throws over the middle last Sunday in Miami.

 

There are many things to like about this play directly below. TT calmly side stepping right to avoid the pressure coming up the middle from Incognito's man. TT .stepping into the throw.. throwing over top of the safety 47.. throwing deep down the middle of the field in the red zone. This is the type of aggressive throw we need to see more of from TT.

 

 

Poor footwork, lack of anticipation, not throwing into tight windows, and not utilizing Clay have been legitimate criticisms of TT up to this point. Below is an example where he demonstrates progress on all 4 of these issues in one throw

 

 

TT has rarely demonstrated a willingness to attempt... or the ability to hit deep seam routes. See the example below of him hitting a deep seam route to Clay. Again.. an example of TT stepping up in a messy pocket.. getting hit.. and making an aggressive completion.

 

 

 

The one glaring missing throw type has been the deep sideline "Go" route that he has historically been so good at throwing. Last week he missed Goodwin due to the line not holding up. Not this week.

 

Note Taylor takes a 3 step drop, steps up..hangs tough in the pocket and takes a hit right after delivering the perfect strike to Goodwin.

 

 

With all the good shown previously TT unfortunately committed an Unforced Error at the worst time. 3rd and short at the Dolphins 40 yd line with 1:04 left in 1st half. If TT executes here the Bills at least get a FG attempt.. at best they get a chance to score a TD and pad the lead at the half. Unfortunately TT just flat out misses this relatively routine slant throw to Goodwin.. no excuses here. Huge missed opportunity on TT's part.

 

 

 

SUMMARY - Most of the offensive passing game struggles can be attributed to Jordan Mills having a really... really bad day against Cameron Wake. Couple that with an overall disastrous Q4 for the OLine and you have a situation where 25 points is not enough to win this one. Tyrod had a very solid game with relatively few unforced errors considering they had 40 pass attempts. Unfortunately one of TT's unforced errors came on a crucial 3rd down in Miami territory at the end of the 1st half costing them a likely 3 or more points that they could have used.

 

I come away from this game happy with TT's progress and very nervous about Jordan Mills as he has been slipping the last few weeks. Hopefully Anthony Lynn will know to give Mills some tight end or RB help against future speed rushers.

 

Have faith Bills fans...In my opinion our QB showed much progress against Miami. He's certainly not there yet.. but I think he is very close to performing like the mid level NFL starter we are paying him to be.

 

O Line Pass block grades

GLENN - B
INCOGNITO - C
WOOD - B
MILLER - C-
MILLS- D-

 

PLAYS OF NOTE

Q1: TT executes accurate roll out throw to Hunter

Q1: 6:18 - Jordan Mills is beaten around the edge by Wake forcing TT to scramble

 

Q1: 5:48 - UNFORCED ERROR - Delay of game on TT

 

Q1 5:14 - Mills beaten again by Wake.. gives up a sack

 

Q1 :58 - UNFORCED ERROR - Poorly thrown fade route to Hunter

 

Q2: - TT executes nice completion over the deep middle

 

Q2 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT bails out of pocket early and doesn't see open Hunter on hitch route

 

Q2: 3:12 - Excellent intermediate seam pass to Clay

 

Q2: 2:35 - Great execution on timing route fitting ball into tight window between two defenders to Clay

 

Q2: 1:04 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws behind Goodwin on critical 3rd down slant

 

Q3 - 6:00 - Bomb to Goodwin.. a thing of beauty

 

Q4 - 15:00 - Incognito beaten to the inside.. TT still makes solid throw with guy in his face

 

Q4: UNFORCED ERROR - Sack.. TT locks onto #1 read too long and takes sack because he doesn't look for other options soon enough

 

Q4 : 8: 02 - Mills blows assignment causing pressure

 

Q4: 3:56 - Mills and Miller allow Suh to get through untouched allowing him to blow up called screen play. Should have at least chipped him

 

Q4: Mills beaten by Wake again

 

Q4: 2:20 - Cordy Glenn is pushed back into TT causing sack

 

Q4 1:43 - Suh blows by John Miller

 

Q4 1:37 - Holding on Jordan Mills

 

Q4 1:05 - Wake breaks through a double team of Mills and Miller and gets pressure

 

Q4: 51 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT doesn't trust protection and throws ball out of back of end zone unnecessarily

 

Q4: - Excellent deep middle throw to Tate at goal line setting up TD

Edited October 27, 2016 by Bocephuz

[Mr. WEO]

Great job as usual, Bo.

 

Be prepared to take some shots for your analysis of TTs play.

[Virgil]

Nice break down. I like these a lot.

 

The slant throw to Goodwin was definitely catchable. The throw aways, I see those as smart and not errors.

 

Overall, what most of us have been saying, didn't lose and didn't win the game.

[eball]

Thanks as usual...I always look forward to these.

[Bocephuz]

Great job as usual, Bo.

 

Be prepared to take some shots for your analysis of TTs play.

hah.. I have my helmet on and am ready to take flak

Thanks as usual...I always look forward to these.

[dave mcbride]

Thanks for this - really great stuff.

Nice break down. I like these a lot.

The slant throw to Goodwin was definitely catchable. The throw aways, I see those as smart and not errors.

Overall, what most of us have been saying, didn't lose and didn't win the game.

It was not catchable. It was just a bad throw.

[PolishDave]

You obviously put a lot of time into that Bocephuz.

 

Thanks for the effort. Nice summary.

 

I noticed opportunities for shovel passes that look like they would have worked extremely well. Those are also a useful way to attack a strong pass rush depending on where the pressure is coming from. Thurman Thomas made a lot of hay from them back in the day.

Edited October 25, 2016 by PolishDave

[CommonCents]

You obviously put a lot of time into that Bocephuz.

 

Thanks for the effort. Nice summary.

 

I noticed opportunities for shovel passes that look like they would have worked extremely well. Those are also a useful way to attack a strong pass rush depending on where the pressure is coming from. Thurman Thomas made a lot of hay from them back in the day.

Did they run anymore read option after TT gashed Miami for the touchdown? I don't remember them doing it.

[Bocephuz]

Thanks for this - really great stuff.

It was not catchable. It was just a bad throw.

 

gracias

[CommonCents]

 

gracias

Yeah this is very well done, your spoiling us folks who don't pay for the all 22. Thanks.

[Bocephuz]

You obviously put a lot of time into that Bocephuz.

 

Thanks for the effort. Nice summary.

 

I noticed opportunities for shovel passes that look like they would have worked extremely well. Those are also a useful way to attack a strong pass rush depending on where the pressure is coming from. Thurman Thomas made a lot of hay from them back in the day.

 

Good point. I think some called screens or shovel passes toward Wake may have helped to take advantage of his aggressiveness.. maybe would have slowed him down a little.

[r00tabaga]

1,000 thank you's. As someone who doesn't get ALL-22, this is greatly appreciated.

[Bocephuz]

Did they run anymore read option after TT gashed Miami for the touchdown? I don't remember them doing it.

 

I only looked at the pass attempts.. so if there was read option then they must have taken the option to keep it and run.

[Kirby Jackson]

Great, great stuff BO!! Your grades confirmed one thing that I thought that I saw live and that was a terrible performance from Mills. I thought that he has been okay up to this point but was just brutal Sunday.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

The goodwin one looked vastly different from this angle - i thought it was high when i watched it live, but the gif looks like its a bit more behind than high.

And CBS so... no replays.

Edited October 25, 2016 by dneveu

[Bocephuz]

Great, great stuff BO!! Your grades confirmed one thing that I thought that I saw live and that was a terrible performance from Mills. I thought that he has been okay up to this point but was just brutal Sunday.

 

He has indeed been ok up to this point... doing just enough in pass protect to hold the line. He is actually quite stout at handling power rushers but when you get a guy with speed across from him he can be exposed like he was Sunday.

 

That being said Wake is an elite pass rusher who has embarrassed many RTs. I just wish Mills or the coaches could have made some sort of adjustment to force Wake inside rather than just giving him the edge most times... or at least give Mills some TE or RB help. It was obvious after q1 he was in way over his head.

[MAJBobby]

Good job. I agree I liked the throw to clay in the seam. Throw seemed late and that is why he had to step up in the pocket in the mess, but hey I am OK with that, also if it was thrown earlier like I think it should have Clay may score there.

 

If I may make a suggestion, in future talk about ball placement a little more. because there are routes that are completed, but have 0 YAC because of poor or improper ball placement, you touch on it with the slant a bit, but that would be an example of look a completed pass good, could have been better though with proper ball placement.

 

Or vice versa, this looked like a bad throw however that is the only place that the ball could be placed IE my guy makes the catch or no one.

 

 

Some of my comments

[Mike in Horseheads]

Great stuff bo! I've been saying all week long the slant to Goodwin was TT's fault not Goodwin but Church of TT members will have nothing to do with that thought. Thanks for what u do!

[Herb62]

I don't have all 22 but I did see a few times he checked down when he had a wide open down field target. I said in an earlier post he seems very afraid of throwing a pick. He has to let it fly sometimes even Montana got picked off once in a while. Playing in fear is never good.

[Bocephuz]

Great stuff bo! I've been saying all week long the slant to Goodwin was TT's fault not Goodwin but Church of TT members will have nothing to do with that thought. Thanks for what u do!

 

That was a killer. TT has to make that throw.