Should the Bills move on from Dareus?

[abc]

The NFL's best teams have a bunch of solid starters and then a few superstars who put them over the top.

 

We don't have enough superstars to be one of the league's best teams. So I can't be in favor of giving up one of the few we have unless we get a guaranteed superstar in return.

 

I wouldn't even trade Marcel away for a #1. I think the chances of Marcel learning from his mistakes are greater than a first round pick becoming as good as him.

I agree with the first half of this but the right comparison isn't the chance of him smoking dube again vs. a first rounder being as good a player as Dareus, rather it's the weighted average comparison of:

(% Chance Dareus turns the corner in his life x How good he is) + (% Chance he bombs out x ZERO )

vs.

(% Chance a 1st Rounder stays straight x How good he might be) + (% Chance 1st rounder bombs out x ZERO)

 

So assuming the 1st rounder can stay off the wacky weed, avoid street racing cars in Cheektowaga, etc we are just getting a player who may be between bust and superstar, most likely a contributor.

Whereas keeping Dareus is a binomial distribution...either we have a super star player or we have literally nothing as he won't be on the field.

The key variable is % Chance Dareus turns his life around. Is it 10%, 50%, 90%? No one knows.

My take is just that if it's even close to 50/50 I'd rather not make that bet if someone offered even a late first round pick and we could handle the cap consequences.

 

(BTW opening up cap space is another benefit of moving on from Dareus; i.e. get a player and have more flexibility sign FA's).

 

I sure as heck hope the guy can walk the line for his own sake and the team. I'll be rooting for him to do so.

[Gugny]

He is a sinner and the marijuana joints will only lead to heroin. Cut him.

[Mr. WEO]

Actually, it sounds very much like you think he should have to give answers and explanations about what he did or didn't do over the last month - or you wouldn't go on about the media not getting them. As I previously said, you have the right/prerogative to any opinion you desire - it doesn't mean anything to me one way or the other. I was simply pointing out that neither you nor the media are entitled to any explanation/clarification of what he did or didn't do. If your only concern is results, then why not wait and see what the results are.

 

Well.... Dareus is the one who told us that he was "entering rehab". The he told us he never entered rehab. He told us he saw a specialist for ADHD, a life coach, and mainly hung out at Bruce Smith's waterfront palace and shot the breeze with a HOF Bill.

 

So it's your position that no one is allowed to comment on Dareus's own explanation of what he was up to?

[Freddie's Dead]

The problem I have with Mr. Big Puff is that you can tell he's lying because his lips are moving. I wouldn't believe him if his tongue came notarized. He stood there all contrite a month ago, talking about going to rehab to get his life together, actions speak louder than words, yada yada @#$%ing yada. Now we find out "Just kidding, I didn't really do anything during my time off to deal with my addictions". Because we've been burned by Least Mode, we need to give this jerk another chance. But he needs to pray at St. Fu, ball his a$$ off, and just stay clean. Not really interested in hearing any more of his bullschitt.

[26CornerBlitz]

The problem I have with Mr. Big Puff is that you can tell he's lying because his lips are moving. I wouldn't believe him if his tongue came notarized. He stood there all contrite a month ago, talking about going to rehab to get his life together, actions speak louder than words, yada yada @#$%ing yada. Now we find out "Just kidding, I didn't really do anything during my time off to deal with my addictions". Because we've been burned by Least Mode, we need to give this jerk another chance. But he needs to pray at St. Fu, ball his a$$ off, and just stay clean. Not really interested in hearing any more of his bullschitt.

 

It seems to me that he sought help to deal with the underlying problems the led to him being suspended for violations of the substances of abuse policy. That could be much more of a benefit to him in the long run.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Kind of surprised by all of the NO's. Do you guys really thing he won't smoke again?

 

If I could get a 1st I would make the deal.

 

RiddleMeThis, @HeHateMe: if you are another team's GM, why do you give up a 1st and take on a $9.7M 2017 guaranteed salary, rising to $9.9M in 2010, for a player whose services will be lost to you for a year if he does smoke again?

 

Answer: other GMs will share your concern, will think that he will smoke again or will go beyond his Adderall TUE (if that's what he's got now), and will be disinterested in sacrificing a 1st for that situation.

[PromoTheRobot]

Promo - I generally agree with you. Don't give up elite talent. I was also very much of the view that Dareus deserved another chance after the last incident. I am nervous about him now. The presser was bad. It was just a bad look.

 

I really don't want to lose Marcell but I think it is getting to the point where if someone was mad enough to offer you a 1st you would have to consider it.

I'm of a mind of just getting through this season with Dareus. Hire a 24/7 handler if you must.

[Tipster19]

Actually, it sounds very much like you think he should have to give answers and explanations about what he did or didn't do over the last month - or you wouldn't go on about the media not getting them. As I previously said, you have the right/prerogative to any opinion you desire - it doesn't mean anything to me one way or the other. I was simply pointing out that neither you nor the media are entitled to any explanation/clarification of what he did or didn't do. If your only concern is results, then why not wait and see what the results are.

 

What do you mean that it sounds very much like I think??! I'm coming right out and openly stating that I don't care about his personal life, I care about his professional life. When his personal life interferes with his professional life then I care. I don't want or need the specifics but when he offers up all his fake bs then he deserves to be called out. As far as the media goes that's THEIR job to ask questions. Dareus didn't like to be questioned about his responsibility to his profession but it's the media's responsibility to their profession to ask these questions, right, wrong or indifferent. I don't usually agree with the media but this time I don't fault them. Once again I don't care about Dareus and his personal life but I do care if he can't keep his irresponsible ass on the field so quit trying to put words in my mouth.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Tipster19

[Hapless Bills Fan]

My take is just that if it's even close to 50/50 I'd rather not make that bet if someone offered even a late first round pick and we could handle the cap consequences.

(BTW opening up cap space is another benefit of moving on from Dareus; i.e. get a player and have more flexibility sign FA's).

 

1) Why do you think another GM would offer a first round pick? If random fans think Dareus is now a "risky business" proposition, why would you believe other GMs would be blind to that chance?

2) What cap space do you think the Bills open up by cutting or trading Dareus? Hint: here's his contract. The Bills eat $44.65M in dead cap if they cut him, and $27M in dead cap if they trade him, this year.

Next year, they eat $30.35M in dead cap if they cut him, and $20.6M in dead cap if they trade him.

 

$20.6M or $27M is a lot of dead cap money to eat for a late 1st round pick that historically, will have something like a 50% chance of being a solid contributor and maybe <25% chance of being a pro-bowler.

 

OTOH, if the Bills keep him and he gets nailed again and is gone for a year, Dareus will have to repay his amortized signing bonus for that year and the Bills won't have to pay him; in addition, his contract probably has language that allows the Bills to cut him and recoup at least part of the signing bonus amortized to future years if that happens (then again, this is the Bills business office we're talking about so maybe it doesn't).

 

In other words, cutting or trading Dareus is an option that makes no business sense and actually costs the Bills significant cap money and cap flexibility. Whereas keeping him is an option that allows the Bills to recoup at least 1 years worth of signing bonus and salary if he does smoke again and gets suspended for a year, and possibly more depending upon specifics in his contract.

I'm of a mind of just getting through this season with Dareus. Hire a 24/7 handler if you must.

 

I kind of had the impression that might be what they did, ie "life coach"

Anyone have a link to the PC? I haven't seen it

 

http://www.buffalobills.com/video/videos/Marcell_Dareus_Im_happy_to_be_back/a4febdae-0962-4fb2-ac93-2b6f179b8f3a

Edited October 7, 2016 by Hapless Bills Fan

[billsfan1959]

 

Well.... Dareus is the one who told us that he was "entering rehab". The he told us he never entered rehab. He told us he saw a specialist for ADHD, a life coach, and mainly hung out at Bruce Smith's waterfront palace and shot the breeze with a HOF Bill.

 

So it's your position that no one is allowed to comment on Dareus's own explanation of what he was up to?

No, my position is twofold:

 

First, you can ask him about what he did and you can comment on what he said or did. However, it is his choice whether or not he wants to provide any specifics. if he chooses not to, then his choice should be respected.

 

Second, It seems to me that commenting on anything, in which you do not know all of the specifics, generally leads to inaccurate assumptions and conclusions. How in the world do you know whether or not he actually sought out rehab and was referred to a specialist for ADHD? How do you know whether or not the specific path he chose to take over the last month isn't the right one for him? How do you know whether or not this particular incident had more or less of an impact on him than his previous incidents? You don't. Nobody does.

 

We will only know based on how he conducts himself from this point forward.

Edited October 7, 2016 by billsfan1959

[Tipster19]

No, my position is twofold:

 

First, you can ask him about what he did and you can comment on what he said or did. However, it is his choice whether or not he wants to provide any specifics. if he chooses not to, then his choice should be respected.

 

Second, It seems to me that commenting on anything, in which you do not know all of the specifics, generally leads to inaccurate assumptions and conclusions. How in the world do you know whether or not he actually sought out rehab and was referred to a specialist for ADHD? How do you know whether or not the specific path he chose to take over the last month isn't the right one for him? How do you know whether or not this particular incident had more or less of an impact on him than his previous incidents? You don't. Nobody does.

 

We will only know based on how he conducts himself from this point forward.

Isn't THAT the whole point of the media asking him questions??!!!

[Freddie's Dead]

 

It seems to me that he sought help to deal with the underlying problems the led to him being suspended for violations of the substances of abuse policy. That could be much more of a benefit to him in the long run.

You're so fluffy. Rehab would have been help. Or maybe the ADHD was what made him lie a month ago, who knows? Let's hope whatever he did actually helped him. The waffling explanations do not inspire confidence.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

The problem I have with Mr. Big Puff is that you can tell he's lying because his lips are moving. I wouldn't believe him if his tongue came notarized. He stood there all contrite a month ago, talking about going to rehab to get his life together, actions speak louder than words, yada yada @#$%ing yada. Now we find out "Just kidding, I didn't really do anything during my time off to deal with my addictions". Because we've been burned by Least Mode, we need to give this jerk another chance. But he needs to pray at St. Fu, ball his a$$ off, and just stay clean. Not really interested in hearing any more of his bullschitt.

 

I'd just like to point out that objectively, give the info reported by Ty Dunne in June that Dareus has an established clinical relationship with a local psychologist and psychiatrist, it is not intrinsically unreasonable that he and the team might reach a joint (HA!) decision that the optimal choice would be for him to step up his sessions with them, add some pieces they identified as potentially helpful (ADHD therapist, life coach), and continue to work out and train at the Bills facility.

 

It's not going to rehab, but it's not necessarily "just kidding, I didn't really do anything during my time off to deal with my addictions" either, and it does have a couple of points that might make it a better option from the viewpoint of both effective treatment and effective continued physical training:

1) existing relationship with competent clinicians Dareus trusts >> needing to start from ground Zero to establish clinical relationship at new rehab facility

2) at rehab, by definition Dareus would be surrounded 24/7 by people who are there for the same problems he has or worse - this is NOT necessarily the best way to model changed behaviors. In fact there is some evidence that putting troubled children and youth in special programs full of other troubled children and youth may be....wait for it...ineffective as an intervention

3) concern was expressed on this board about whether a rehab facility would have NFL-caliber workout facilities, trainers, and diet. being able to work out at OBD = yes to all 3.

4) some of the benefits of a rehab facility such as peers going through the same stuff, could in theory be supplied by local peer support groups

5) a problem with any out-of-town or isolated rehab facility is that the new habits and patterns established there, then have to be translated back into the patient's "normal" life and that isn't at all a sure bet (ie the reason "biggest loser" contestants fear "leaving the ranch" and tend to gain weight back, the reason drug and alcohol rehab have a high relapse rate - maybe 70-80% etcetera)

Edited October 7, 2016 by Hapless Bills Fan

[billsfan1959]

Isn't THAT the whole point of the media asking him questions??!!!

My WHOLE POINT Is that the media can ask questions; however it is his choice whether or not he wants to provide any specific information. If he chooses not to, then his choice should be respected. It is not really a complicated concept.

[HeHateMe]

 

RiddleMeThis, @HeHateMe: if you are another team's GM, why do you give up a 1st and take on a $9.7M 2017 guaranteed salary, rising to $9.9M in 2010, for a player whose services will be lost to you for a year if he does smoke again?

 

Answer: other GMs will share your concern, will think that he will smoke again or will go beyond his Adderall TUE (if that's what he's got now), and will be disinterested in sacrificing a 1st for that situation.

 

I don't think that it is likely that they would be able to get a 1st for him. But stranger things have happened in this league. The guy is still extremely talented and pretty young still.

[Mr. WEO]

No, my position is twofold:

 

First, you can ask him about what he did and you can comment on what he said or did. However, it is his choice whether or not he wants to provide any specifics. if he chooses not to, then his choice should be respected.

 

Second, It seems to me that commenting on anything, in which you do not know all of the specifics, generally leads to inaccurate assumptions and conclusions. How in the world do you know whether or not he actually sought out rehab and was referred to a specialist for ADHD? How do you know whether or not the specific path he chose to take over the last month isn't the right one for him? How do you know whether or not this particular incident had more or less of an impact on him than his previous incidents? You don't. Nobody does.

 

We will only know based on how he conducts himself from this point forward.

 

 

Again, I'm going based on what he has said. I can conclude (if I choose, based on what we do know) that he most likely did not seek out rehab when he announced he actually was entering rehab. If his problem is ADHD (and I am not commenting on that at all--I know what I'm talking about), then I think this whole rehab thing was a PR stunt.

 

As for "we will only know based on how he conducts himself from this point forward", don't we already know from his two arrests and suspension only 2 years ago? Didn';t he say these same things 2 years ago?

[ChanOverChin]

A resounding NO.

 

You don't give up that easily on an impact player like Dareus.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

You're so fluffy. Rehab would have been help. Or maybe the ADHD was what made him lie a month ago, who knows? Let's hope whatever he did actually helped him. The waffling explanations do not inspire confidence.

 

 

I agree with you that from a PR point of view, a Bills update saying that Dareus had decided to remain in town and seek focused, individualized treatment while continuing to train at the Bills facilities would have inspired more confidence from the fans than leaving it at "I made a decision to enter rehab" out of Dareus mouth, and then "Surprise! Didn't go!" a month later.

 

Only rehab = help and No rehab = lie strike me as somewhat naive positions

 

Sounds like you are becoming Hopeful again.

 

I wont look at PCs to form an opinion of a man who I dont know personally. His on-field play and dedication to the game will go a long way in showing us if he is capable of turning his life around. Clearly, as is obvious, he is a fantastic talent and can be a totally dominating and disrupting force in the middle. Unfortunately, he has been off the field quite frequently. In a few players, past history is surely a predictor of their future. But others have reformed and led productive careers. It will be a tough decision for a front office considering moving him and frankly I wouldnt fault them for whatever decision they make. He did come into the league at a young age and perhaps never matured enough to put his health and career above recreation. Compound that with the personal events that happened and its easy to see why he ended up where he is.

Lets see. I say a decision needs to be made in the offseason when he doesnt have the games to prepare for. His play this season and what he does in his idle time during the offseason will be an excellent pointer to the future.

 

Hope springs eternal

 

Just a note that in Dareus 5 seasons prior to this, he missed one (1) game due to suspension and one (1) game due to injury. In 5 seasons.

You can call that "he has been off the field quite frequently" but for an NFL DLman, that's actually an unusual definition of "quite frequently".

 

What is true is that starting this season and the last with substance-abuse suspensions is a very troubling pattern.

[Big Turk]

Dareus with a hamstring today in practice...

[Best Player Available]

RiddleMeThis, @HeHateMe: if you are another team's GM, why do you give up a 1st and take on a $9.7M 2017 guaranteed salary, rising to $9.9M in 2010, for a player whose services will be lost to you for a year if he does smoke again?

 

Answer: other GMs will share your concern, will think that he will smoke again or will go beyond his Adderall TUE (if that's what he's got now), and will be disinterested in sacrificing a 1st for that situation.

not too pick nits. But isn't his next suspension 10 games. Not a season?