Wayne Arnold Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Only 1 out of 40 experts polled by newyorkupstate.com predict the Bills will make the playoffs. 98% of NFL writers/experts from NFL.com, PFF, ProFootballTalk, USA Today, CBS, ESPN, etc. who do this for a living do not think the Bills are a Top 6 team in the AFC. Amazing. http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2016/09/2016_nfl_predictions_only_1_of_40_national_experts_say_bills_make_playoffs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Only 1 out of 40 experts polled by newyorkupstate.com predict the Bills will make the playoffs. 98% of NFL writers/experts from NFL.com, PFF, ProFootballTalk, USA Today, CBS, ESPN, etc. who do this for a living do not think the Bills are a Top 6 team in the AFC. Amazing. http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2016/09/2016_nfl_predictions_only_1_of_40_national_experts_say_bills_make_playoffs.html Why is that amazing to people? You're all acting like this team has done ANYTHING to merit people believing they should be listed among the top 6 in the AFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 What makes some dude who reports on the league an expert? Most of these dudes have no idea about the nuances of football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted September 9, 2016 Author Share Posted September 9, 2016 Why is that amazing to people? You're all acting like this team has done ANYTHING to merit people believing they should be listed among the top 6 in the AFC. Because that's quite the percentage. I would think an average team would get 75-80% tops. I didn't think anyone aside from the worst team in the league would get a prediction that poor from NFL writers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Damn. Now I believe we will make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Exactly. While I love the Bills and want them to win every game, this needs to be looked at realistically. These writers eyc are at least as well versed in the " nuances" of the NFL as every poster on this board. The Bills play in the AFC East. Does anyone believe that the Pats will not win the division yet again, even with Brady suspended for 4 games? That mean the Bills, Jets , Phins are fighting for a WC spot. That's a tougher go than teams in other divisions that have more than one way in. The Bills also have to play NE twice and have a Mon night @ Seattle. That leaves them 13 games to get what is likely the required 10 wins to make the AFC playoffs. They also have two games in CAL where they historically almost never win. Perhaps 9 wins does it in the NFC, but the AFC will take 10. Injuries, suspensions, FA leave the Bills with less talent and ability to absorb more injuries when the real games start. No playoffs is a pretty good bet for them. I hope they can beat the odds, but they are up against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthBuffaloKid Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 YAWN! What did they say last year? were they right? If so, why didn't we make the playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Well, 100% of Johnny Hammersticks thinks these "experts" are stupid idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 (edited) One team no one picks usually sneaks in every year, and one trendy pick usually bottoms out. It could be us - but the top 3/4 are usually set so were battling like 6 or 7 teams for 1 or 2 open spots. Its tough. Not to mention we're in a division with a powerhouse team- usually puts an extra 2 L's on your record, and takes away the possibility of winning the division. 2 extra AFC losses and a worse divisional record - all tiebreakers that get harmed by playing new england twice a year during their run of winning an average of 12 per year for 15 years. Certainly doesn't make it easy. Edited September 9, 2016 by dneveu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Because that's quite the percentage. I would think an average team would get 75-80% tops. I didn't think anyone aside from the worst team in the league would get a prediction that poor from NFL writers. The question doesn't appear to have been if the Bills were one of the worst teams in the league. It was if they would make the playoffs. There are several factors that could keep the Bills out of the AFC playoffs including the relative strength of the competition and that they play in the AFC east with the Patriots. It's likely that the Bills would not be on a 16 year non playoff streak if they played in another division or in the NFC. The writers are likely looking at the big picture away from the Bills , not just the relative quality of their roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 (edited) I think what happens is if the perception that the Bills will make the playoffs is say(for example), 25% or 33%, then that means it's 67%-75% that they won't. So if 39 out of 40 sportswriters simply 'play the odds' in their predictions, they won't pick the Bills to make the playoffs. But that doesn't mean the Bills are 97.5% likely to miss the playoffs with only 2.5% chance to make them. The underlying probabilities are still 25%-33% chance to make the playoffs. Same argument for teams considered likely to make the playoffs - even if the underlying odds are 80% likely, close to 100% of sportswriters will pick them to make it. Edited September 9, 2016 by Sakman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cugalabanza Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Only 1 out of 40 experts polled by newyorkupstate.com predict the Bills will make the playoffs. So, you're saying there's a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Exactly. While I love the Bills and want them to win every game, this needs to be looked at realistically. These writers eyc are at least as well versed in the " nuances" of the NFL as every poster on this board. The Bills play in the AFC East. Does anyone believe that the Pats will not win the division yet again, even with Brady suspended for 4 games? That mean the Bills, Jets , Phins are fighting for a WC spot. That's a tougher go than teams in other divisions that have more than one way in. The Bills also have to play NE twice and have a Mon night @ Seattle. That leaves them 13 games to get what is likely the required 10 wins to make the AFC playoffs. They also have two games in CAL where they historically almost never win. Perhaps 9 wins does it in the NFC, but the AFC will take 10. Injuries, suspensions, FA leave the Bills with less talent and ability to absorb more injuries when the real games start. No playoffs is a pretty good bet for them. I hope they can beat the odds, but they are up against it. Let's see what they say in week 8 when we have a top 10 Defense and people act all shocked across the country... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Last year we were one of the trendy teams. We made anyone who believed look dumb. The "who is next" crowd has moved on the Oakland and Jacksonville, one or both is very likely to fall flat on their faces while someone is going to surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Last year we were one of the trendy teams. We made anyone who believed look dumb. Most thought Rex could coach defense and with the talent that was on that defense last season it was going to be lights out for most of the teams playing the Bills. It didn't turn out quite that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 With my NFL conspiracy hat on, this is the perfect story to fuel the narrative. You see, the ideal narrative is for the Bills to have a 2015 Carolina Panthers season. Be so surprising, be so convincing, be so dominating that it is an amazing, feel good, uplifting story that is impossible not to like. Redemption for the Ryans. They stay in the league. Playoffs for sure. Invigorated fan base. Tons of pressure ratcheted up on the Pegulas and the state for that new stadium. And nothing else matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cugalabanza Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 With my NFL conspiracy hat on, this is the perfect story to fuel the narrative. You see, the ideal narrative is for the Bills to have a 2015 Carolina Panthers season. Be so surprising, be so convincing, be so dominating that it is an amazing, feel good, uplifting story that is impossible not to like. Redemption for the Ryans. They stay in the league. Playoffs for sure. Invigorated fan base. Tons of pressure ratcheted up on the Pegulas and the state for that new stadium. And nothing else matters. Ok, I guess I'm ready to lose another super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 so yur saying there is a chance? SWEET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 So these experts don't trust Rex to get a team into the post-season? I guess if you throw the last 5 seasons of Rex's coaching career out the window then they're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 (edited) Ok, I guess I'm ready to lose another super bowl. Two schools of thought Owners want the Bills as Super Bowl winners. Apex of success and the Pegulas would be in a poor position to be cheap after finally getting to the top of the mountain. Flip side - Owners want the team super competitive but not win it all. Keeps the Pegulas from saying "well we won, box checked" and get complacent about the definition of success going forward in a stadium that doesn't make money. While 90% of this is tongue in cheek, the other 10% of me wouldn't be surprised in the least to see the Bills amazingly successful this year. Why? The NFL is a private enterprise in the entertainment business. It can tell whatever story it wants to. Edited September 9, 2016 by dpberr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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