NoSaint Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Except that I don't buy it. Someone as prepared as he does not kick in a possible one possession game. He's covering for his player, or he's covering his own ignorance of the OT rules. I enjoy you saying he's too prepared but could be he didn't know the rules. I'm guessing he weighed the percentage of first drive tds vs the benefit of knowing what you need to get and found it better to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Maybe he has no respect for FitzChan and assumed they wouldn't score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I enjoy you saying he's too prepared but could be he didn't know the rules. I'm guessing he weighed the percentage of first drive tds vs the benefit of knowing what you need to get and found it better to know. I find that crazy to believe, but, if it's the case it finally proves his fallibility. The emperor has no clothes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fridge Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Maybe he has no respect for FitzChan and assumed they wouldn't score I think it's a combination of this, and the fact that they just stopped them at the end of the 4th quarter. Maybe he thought the D would get a quick 3-and-out and he would just need a field goal to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Maybe he has no respect for FitzChan and assumed they wouldn't score Or figured the gain of knowing you go for it on 4th if they get a fg, and a fg wins without a score was beneficial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Anyone have a more recent source? https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/early-returns-on-the-nfls-new-ot-rules/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'd venture he did it based on stats. Which doesn't mean you always win, even if statistically speaking it's the right choice I think the hoodie thought Fitz would be the Fitz of old. This is the new improved Fitz. Except that I don't buy it. Someone as prepared as he does not kick in a possible one possession game. He's covering for his player, or he's covering his own ignorance of the OT rules. Nobody knows the rules (particularly to manipulate them) better than the cheat. Maybe he has no respect for FitzChan and assumed they wouldn't score yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Who cares, he has been clever enough to lead the Patriots to massive success, so a mistake now and then is no big deal. Considering the bumbling of Wrex Ryan, it's laughable to see any Bills fans gloating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Was there significant wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I enjoy you saying he's too prepared but could be he didn't know the rules. I'm guessing he weighed the percentage of first drive tds vs the benefit of knowing what you need to get and found it better to know. His decision, IMO, was based on a lack of respect to Fitz and the Jets being the Jets. WHy the lack of urgency at the end of the first half? Who cares, he has been clever enough to lead the Patriots to massive success, so a mistake now and then is no big deal. Considering the bumbling of Wrex Ryan, it's laughable to see any Bills fans gloating. All we have are small, indirect victories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Interesting thought. I would certainly rather play the Jets than the Steelers despite their loss to the Ravens somehow. Especially when they're coming off a week 17 loss at Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Anyone have a more recent source? https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/early-returns-on-the-nfls-new-ot-rules/ interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 @Trags Bill Belichick "There wasn't any confusion" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Doug Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think there is more to this story. Anyone with half of a brain knows that if you give Brady the first possession in OT, he'll win you that game 99 of 100 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sig1Hunter Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Was there significant wind? I don't think it mattered. Since the Pats made their choice to kick, the Jets got the choice to in the direction they go. There is no defer option in OT. Or, at least that's how I understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Who cares, he has been clever enough to lead the Patriots to massive success, so a mistake now and then is no big deal. Considering the bumbling of Wrex Ryan, it's laughable to see any Bills fans gloating. Don't you ever tire of your own nonsense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think there is more to this story. Anyone with half of a brain knows that if you give Brady the first possession in OT, he'll win you that game 99 of 100 times. That seems rather exaggerated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffalothruMyVeins Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Ok, we've finally found the chink in the Patriots' armor... Get them to overtime, and it all falls apart... YES!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 (edited) I'd venture he did it based on stats. Which doesn't mean you always win, even if statistically speaking it's the right choice I imagine 538 or someone else will do a statistical analysis of this. My gut impression: electing to kick is probably the best choice even though it's counterintuitive. Why? Well, think about it: - Jets scored TDs on 2 of 9 previous possessions. Not a great ratio. Plus they had the following drives on prior possessions: 5 plays, 16 yards; 3 plays, 5 yards; 3 plays, 7 yards; 6 plays, 26 yards. In other words, in 4 of 9 drives they gained 26 yards or less. That means double the chance of a punt (putting NE in the driver's seat) than of a sudden-death Jets TD. - if the Jets kick a FG on their initial possession, NE still has a strategic advantage: the know they can continue OT with their own FG, or they can go for the kill by shooting for the end zone. So I don't think there was any mistake here at all. I think Belichick and Ernie Adams had this figured out from a statistical and game theory perspective, but (as noted in the comment above) sometimes the best strategy backfires. That doesn't mean it wasn't a sound strategy. Edited December 27, 2015 by The Frankish Reich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 (edited) Don't you ever tire of your own nonsense? The Bills are out of it again. We have a clown for a coach, but people want to gloat over a minor mistake by what might be the greatest coach of all time. I realize that the Bills crappiness is a disappointment to all here, and maybe particularly a moderator, but don't take it out on me. Thanks so much. Edited December 27, 2015 by HoF Watkins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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