Boatdrinks Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Or go the XFL route and not allow the touchback, you must run it out. Good point, and I think I'd like that better. Many KOs just go deep into EZ, not out. Of course, if the goal is reducing injuries, I doubt they would mandate more kick returns. I like it though. The play sucks as it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eSJayDee Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 You make a valid point, and with our frequency of penalties, you think you might actually be right. However, I tend to think it's still worth the chance. There's not much difference between the 15 & 25 for field position and there is a small chance that break one either all the way, or at least yielding significantly better field position. Hopefully, the expected Utility (economic concept) of returning it when there's some chance, albeit likely small, of yielding far favorable results exceeds the minimal extra Utility you'd get from taking it at the 20 relative to say about the 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That's No Moon Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 You make a valid point, and with our frequency of penalties, you think you might actually be right. However, I tend to think it's still worth the chance. There's not much difference between the 15 & 25 for field position and there is a small chance that break one either all the way, or at least yielding significantly better field position. Hopefully, the expected Utility (economic concept) of returning it when there's some chance, albeit likely small, of yielding far favorable results exceeds the minimal extra Utility you'd get from taking it at the 20 relative to say about the 17. Last season the highest average yards gained per drive was just under 40 yards (AZ). The difference between the 15 and the 25 as a starting point is the difference between the opposing 35 (FG attempt) and the opposing 45 (punt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 But if it puts you in a worse position than simply taking a knee nearly 50 percent of the time, at the 20 or so another near-50 percent of the time, and in a much better position a minuscule percentage of the time? I distinctly remember watching the Bills run a kickoff out from deep in the end zone and thinking "Probably not a great idea, but I don't blame him. With EJ the offense is t doing anything right now and he's just trying to make something happen." Sometimes you just have to take the chance. Besides, if they think the unit is improving or they see something on film or during the play they might have reason to think they can do better. I get what you're saying, but I don't blame them for trying in most instances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That's No Moon Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I distinctly remember watching the Bills run a kickoff out from deep in the end zone and thinking "Probably not a great idea, but I don't blame him. With EJ the offense is t doing anything right now and he's just trying to make something happen." Sometimes you just have to take the chance. Besides, if they think the unit is improving or they see something on film or during the play they might have reason to think they can do better. I get what you're saying, but I don't blame them for trying in most instances. I look at it more as controlling variables. The biggest variable in any game is the officiating. They can call holding basically any play. There is an illegal block of some sort on every kick it's just a matter of when it is called or not. Not taking the ball out eliminates penalties and turnovers entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Not taking the ball out eliminates penalties and turnovers entirely. You hope. But with these officials? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 As sad as it is, we get penalized even when we don't run it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonborn10 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 18, 20, 10 --- who cares. Take a chance for a big play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Or, how about: obtain an NFL-quality special teams coach, then devote a meaningful portion of the practice week to teaching returns, coverage and technique. The starting position is frustrating enough - but Rex's clowns manage to get flagged on nearly every special teams play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Risk is starting inside the 10 because of a penalty or fumbling the ball away. The most KO returns for TD by one player in any season is 4. The career record for KO returns is 6. The best KO returner we've had in recent memory was Terrence McGee. He had 5 in his 7 year kick returning career. So if you have a really good return man, you might pop one per season. How many times will you screw yourself with field position? McGee also had 5 fumbles during his KO return career. Fortunately he only lost 1. We are (roughly) halfway through and have 1 start at the 10. If you told me the options were an average start at the 18 before getting a touchdown (but getting one eventually), vs 20..... I'd probably go with run it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 We are (roughly) halfway through and have 1 start at the 10. If you told me the options were an average start at the 18 before getting a touchdown (but getting one eventually), vs 20..... I'd probably go with run it out I think a turnover is more likely than a td return with this group. I don't really trust denarius moore with the ball, truth be told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I think a turnover is more likely than a td return with this group. I don't really trust denarius moore with the ball, truth be told. Forget Denarius, Randell is good for 1 hold/bad block per game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 The real question is what happened to the special teams? Why the precipitous drop? Two of the three units were quite good last year. Now, none of them are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fridge Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 We had Boom Herron returning kickoffs last week. It's like...are we even trying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Forget Denarius, Randell is good for 1 hold/bad block per game. Which is already built into the drive start numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 (edited) The Bills have returned 13 kickoffs from the end zone/goal line area this season.Their average starting point when they do return kicks from that area is the 18 yard line. The farthest they have gotten is the 24, and on those returns it has never looked like there was ever anything approaching a real seam. To me, they look like exercises in utter futility, with a higher-than-negligible chance of three negative outcomes occurring, either alone or in combination: penalty (twice), injury (Goodwin), and fumble (not yet, but we're due). So far, they haven't come remotely close to breaking one. (There have also been 21 touchbacks, one onside kick, and two pooch kicks to the 20 yard line. One of those pooch kicks saw no return, and they started from the 20. Against the Giants, they returned one 15 yards and started from the 35.) Their drive starts on returned deep kicks are as follows: 20, 10, 22, 15, 17, 14, 14, 22, 24, 20, 20, 16, and 20. Pretty sad. My question is, why are we ever returning kicks to the goal line given these results and the fact that we're so penalized on ST? I really think that should take a knee on every kick for which they can in order to avoid poor drive starts and prevent injuries as well as turnovers. take a knee unless all of the other team players fell down Edited October 30, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I think a turnover is more likely than a td return with this group. I don't really trust denarius moore with the ball, truth be told. And either way you lay the probabilities you also have the fact that those probably aren't great to trade 1-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnearlysghost88 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 The Bills have returned 13 kickoffs from the end zone/goal line area this season.Their average starting point when they do return kicks from that area is the 18 yard line. The farthest they have gotten is the 24, and on those returns it has never looked like there was ever anything approaching a real seam. To me, they look like exercises in utter futility, with a higher-than-negligible chance of three negative outcomes occurring, either alone or in combination: penalty (twice), injury (Goodwin), and fumble (not yet, but we're due). So far, they haven't come remotely close to breaking one. (There have also been 21 touchbacks, one onside kick, and two pooch kicks to the 20 yard line. One of those pooch kicks saw no return, and they started from the 20. Against the Giants, they returned one 15 yards and started from the 35.) Their drive starts on returned deep kicks are as follows: 20, 10, 22, 15, 17, 14, 14, 22, 24, 20, 20, 16, and 20. Pretty sad. My question is, why are we ever returning kicks to the goal line given these results and the fact that we're so penalized on ST? I really think that should take a knee on every kick for which they can in order to avoid poor drive starts and prevent injuries as well as turnovers. This is good work. I'm for them returning a kick when the situation warrants (end of a half, down by two scores late, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Really the worst of this thread is that we have so many special teams guys and just plan ways to hide the units.... Crossman.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 (edited) Good teams play the percentages and don't succumb to the triumph of hope over experience. Good point. Given the facts, I'd have the returner down the ball. A start at the 20 is better than a start at the 18. But I believe in situational football. If we're desperate for a big play (down by a lot late in the game), I'd encourage the returner to bring it out. A start at the 20 isn't likely to help us while a good return - although unlikely - could spark a comeback. Since we're unlikely to win anyway, a start at the 18 (or whatever) won't hurt us. Of course the OP's research begs the question (as MDH brings up): why is our return game so impotent? Edited October 30, 2015 by hondo in seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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