Grantland predicts Bills to be a cellar dweller in 2015

[YoloinOhio]

@Grantland33: NFL 2015 Season Predictions, Part 1: The Cellar Dwellers, by @billbarnwell http://t.co/lzINEWRCNn

[Tyrod's Tailor]

Barnwell said the same thing last year too

[Doc]

Opinions are like...

[26CornerBlitz]

Opinions are like...

Ding!

[YoloinOhio]

Barnwell said the same thing last year too

i know we are a little obsessed on here and rag on the national writers who are uninformed about every little detail... But I found a lot of inaccuracies in the article. Mostly that they did little to improve the OL. Two new guards and all new coaches?

[Lurker]

@Grantland33: NFL 2015 Season Predictions, Part 1: The Cellar Dwellers, by @billbarnwell http://t.co/lzINEWRCNn

Horrible analysis. Another guy who sat in his basement and wrote something without watching any camp or exhibition games....

[Cugalabanza]

Wow, the writing by this guy is embarrassingly bad.

[Tyrod's Tailor]

i know we are a little obsessed on here and rag on the national writers who are uninformed about every little detail... But I found a lot of inaccuracies in the article. Mostly that they did little to improve the OL. Two new guards and all new coaches?

I work in the media (don't cover sports) and generally people give reporters too hard a time on here. But this story is just really bad.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

He makes fair points about the QB situation, though I don't think Taylor playing at least reasonably well is that much of a lottery long-shot.

 

But he makes no sense about the OL. Very lazy POV. The guards are way better. Wood is the same. Cordy had a down year - so using Barnwell's pseudo-statistical approach, he should see some reversion to form, especially given his off field struggles last year and the fact that he showed up in great shape this year and has played well in the pre-season. And Henderson was a rookie. He is likely to be at least somewhat better (most second-year players are), especially given his physical talent. I think this O-Line is going to sneak up on people and be one of the better ones in the NFL by season's end. That's the view through my rose-colored fan glasses, sure, but even an objective, "logical" observer - which Barnwell pretends to be - should conclude that the Bills' OLine is likely to improve significantly, barring injury.

Edited September 7, 2015 by Last Guy on the Bench

[jester43]

i know we are a little obsessed on here and rag on the national writers who are uninformed about every little detail... But I found a lot of inaccuracies in the article. Mostly that they did little to improve the OL. Two new guards and all new coaches?

Yes, two new guards: a journeyman and a rookie.

 

Hopefully the coaches can coax more out of this crew, and I am not saying they can't, but it is a fair criticism. The Bills OL was horrible last year, and the suddenly-shaky kicker was a huge reason we eked out 9 wins. if Carpenter goes back to being the guy Miami cut we have a big problem. There is just no margin for error without at least a top-10 (or so) passer. And until proven otherwise, we don't have one!

[26CornerBlitz]

Yes, two new guards: a journeyman and a rookie.

 

Hopefully the coaches can coax more out of this crew, and I am not saying they can't, but it is a fair criticism. The Bills OL was horrible last year, and the suddenly-shaky kicker was a huge reason we eked out 9 wins. if Carpenter goes back to being the guy Miami cut we have a big problem. There is just no margin for error without at least a top-10 (or so) passer. And until proven otherwise, we don't have one!

 

Sounds like you have ingrained negative expectations based on the past seasons of futility.

[Wayne Cubed]

Surprising that on that list the Buffalo Bills are the only team to have a winning record in 2014. A team like Tampa Bay, who's starting a rookie QB and has a suspect defense, isn't on the list. There are some teams that were bottom dwellers in 2014 who could end up being bottom dwellers again. The NY Giants, Atlanta Falcons, St. Louis Rams and Chicago Bears were all pretty bad. What proof is there that they have improved? I think the Bills are an easy/lazy choice for the author as they have been bad previously.

[YoloinOhio]

Yes, two new guards: a journeyman and a rookie.

 

Hopefully the coaches can coax more out of this crew, and I am not saying they can't, but it is a fair criticism. The Bills OL was horrible last year, and the suddenly-shaky kicker was a huge reason we eked out 9 wins. if Carpenter goes back to being the guy Miami cut we have a big problem. There is just no margin for error without at least a top-10 (or so) passer. And until proven otherwise, we don't have one!

i disagree considering how legendarily bad the guards were from last year, and that the journeyman is a journeyman mainly due to personality issues and not play, and the rookie has looked really good. It's not like he's a low round pick. They were SO bad last year at G that they are likely to be much improved with who is starting this year. Oh and the coaching piece?

 

Btw I didn't say they were inaccurate about the kicking situation.

Edited September 7, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[truth on hold]

Agree he missed on the better oline due to upgrade at guard, however rest is pretty much spot on. The defense was already one of the best and lead the league in sacks. Can't expect much upside, if any, there. So its mostly rests how the offense does under him. And while the better oline play is a given IMO, the talent positions have many questions marks

Edited September 7, 2015 by JTSP

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

come on guys stop bashing the inept media!!!

 

 

/sarc

[Solomon Grundy]

@Grantland33: NFL 2015 Season Predictions, Part 1: The Cellar Dwellers, by @billbarnwell http://t.co/lzINEWRCNn

I bet this article was a reaction to the cutting of Matt Cassel!! You know the "experts" hate to be wrong!!

 

Could be GREAT locker room fodder!!

Edited September 7, 2015 by the skycap

[dave mcbride]

Sounds like you have ingrained negative expectations based on the past seasons of futility.

I thought the article was more on point than others here think, but also remember that he says that the best case scenario has them going 10-6. So he's not saying it's impossible for them to be good. Also bear in mind that you're not going to go broke if you make predictions on simply who the qb is. It's usually an accurate predictor, and Barnwell says as much at the beginning.

 

I say 10-6, but I also think that our qbs are going to take us on a rocky ride.

[The Frankish Reich]

Horrible analysis. Another guy who sat in his basement and wrote something without watching any camp or exhibition games....

To the contrary, Barnwell's analysis is usually spot on. Here's his 2014 summary - I'd say he hit the nail on the head as the Bills achieved their best-case scenario prediction, setting aside the Spiller comments ...

 

Best-Case Scenario: Orton takes over for Manuel after learning the playbook and plays like a perfectly average starting quarterback, while Watkins and C.J. Spiller form a pair of devastating big-play specialists. Schwartz gets enough out of the pass rush for Buffalo to go 9-7 and produce its first winning season since 2004.

 

Look, this team is interesting, this season is interesting and will definitely have me watching every game, and "interesting" is something kind of unusual in the Mularkey-Jauron-Gailey-Marrone era. And there's a real, legitimate theory -- call it a planet alignment theory -- in which almost everything works, at least to some degree, and we've got a contender. Barnwell's best case scenario for 2015:

 

Best-Case Scenario: New offensive coordinator Greg Roman pieces together a competent offense out of a few luxury parts and Taylor, who exceeds expectations and resembles a poor man’s Colin Kaepernick. The defense is the best in football, and the Bills make it to the playoffs at 10-6.

Edited September 7, 2015 by The Frankish Reich

[Acantha]

Yes, two new guards: a journeyman and a rookie.

 

Hopefully the coaches can coax more out of this crew, and I am not saying they can't, but it is a fair criticism. The Bills OL was horrible last year, and the suddenly-shaky kicker was a huge reason we eked out 9 wins. if Carpenter goes back to being the guy Miami cut we have a big problem. There is just no margin for error without at least a top-10 (or so) passer. And until proven otherwise, we don't have one!

I think that's just too simplistic of a look at the whole offense. That journeyman and rookie are both better than what was there before, meaning 40% of the line was upgraded. If we downgraded 2 positions on the line, people would be acting like the world was coming to an end. Also, while I know it's popular opinion (not saying it's yours) that rookies should basically be at full talent right out of the gate, I don't think people should discount the potential upgrade that Henderson could show being in his 2nd year.

 

That goes double for Watkins. Yes, he was good last year, but he was still a rookie playing in a historically tough position for rookies. How much better will he be? How much does it help to have a guy like Harvin on the field? And an actual NFL level tight end??

 

We all know the QB situation is up in air, but that article puts just as much negative spin on everything as the biggest Bills homer's positive spin.

 

I do agree that Carpenter has me scared.

[The Frankish Reich]

But there's also the obvious truth of this comment:

 

As the league zigs in one direction — treating first-round picks like precious manna and running backs like relatively replaceable assets — the Bills are zagging the other way with little evidence that they’re wise to do so.

 

The GMs and coaches who zag when everyone else zigs sometimes turn out to be prophetic, ahead of their time. But most of the time they turn out to be fools. Time will tell. But don't blame the messenger -- there's a lot of carefully considered analysis here of the standard analytical wisdom variety. I hope he's wrong, but he's not an idiot ...

[BobChalmers]

His "points" aren't even logical points.

 

They will do worse than last year

 

- because they cut Fred Jackson?

- because 2 1st round picks was too much for Watkins?

- because EJ is a bust?

- because 2 seasons ago they were going to start Kolb?

 

How does any of that drop them from 2nd to 4th in a year?

 

His argument wasn't based in anything real - ultimately it was really more an argument of "I don't like the Bills' decisions lately"... Not really the same thing at all, particularly since all but the cutting of Fred were true already last year.

 

To say this guy made no sense is generous.

 

 

 

Best-Case Scenario: New offensive coordinator Greg Roman pieces together a competent offense out of a few luxury parts and Taylor, who exceeds expectations and resembles a poor man’s Colin Kaepernick. The defense is the best in football, and the Bills make it to the playoffs at 10-6.

 

How in Hades does the "best defense in football" and a "competent offense" equal only 10-6???

 

This is what is bugging me about the intellectual inconsistency (dishonesty, flat-out laziness?) of nearly every national media buffoon.

 

All pre-season we heard from multiple national sources "the Bills have the best or nearly the best team 21/22 positions - if only they had decent QB play they'd be a playoff team looking to go deep. Now they have a QB solution that's almost certainly better than what they were expected to have when those comments were made, and somehow they're back to be 9-7 or worse?

Edited September 7, 2015 by BobChalmers

[Dibs]

"The problem, of course, is that those moves came at a prohibitive cost...."

I wonder how many extra games we lose this season due to that prohibative cost? With logic like that he would fit right in around here.

[The Frankish Reich]

His "points" aren't even logical points.

 

They will do worse than last year

 

- because they cut Fred Jackson?

- because 2 1st round picks was too much for Watkins?

- because EJ is a bust?

- because 2 seasons ago they were going to start Kolb?

 

How does any of that drop them from 2nd to 4th in a year?

 

His argument wasn't based in anything real - ultimately it was really more an argument of "I don't like the Bills' decisions lately"... Not really the same thing at all, particularly since all but the cutting of Fred were true already last year.

 

To say this guy made no sense is generous.

The individual points are taken out of context. Barnwell says that each of these made some sense in isolation -- for example, using a first round pick on the guy they thought was the best QB in the draft made sense when the alternative was Kevin Kolb. But Barnwell also notes that the doubling down on decisions that haven't panned out is the problem. EJ struggled as a rookie? Trade consecutive first round picks to get him a real weapon in Sammy! Offensive line terrible? Bring back 3 of the 5 starters, supplementing with an aging guard who was out of football for a year and a second round rookie, then try to make the running game better by putting all your eggs in the LeSean basket. Again, I hope this works. But objectively, without Bills-shaded glasses, the overall assessment of all the moves on the offense has to leave analysts scratching their heads.

[YoloinOhio]

"The problem, of course, is that those moves came at a prohibitive cost...."

I wonder how many extra games we lose this season due to that prohibative cost? With logic like that he would fit right in around here.

prohibitive of what? Lol

[PromoTheRobot]

Horrible analysis. Another guy who sat in his basement and wrote something without watching any camp or exhibition games....

It's Buffalo, so.....

[Dibs]

prohibitive of what? Lol

Hehe....you know. Prohibitive of the cap. That money we spent on star players could have been spent on, um, well, other star players.

[Wayne Cubed]

prohibitive of what? Lol

 

Wins. Obviously.

 

Didn't get that memo that when you acquire players like Harvin and McCoy said team must forfeit 2 wins.

[The Frankish Reich]

His "points" aren't even logical points.

 

They will do worse than last year

 

- because they cut Fred Jackson?

- because 2 1st round picks was too much for Watkins?

- because EJ is a bust?

- because 2 seasons ago they were going to start Kolb?

 

How does any of that drop them from 2nd to 4th in a year?

 

His argument wasn't based in anything real - ultimately it was really more an argument of "I don't like the Bills' decisions lately"... Not really the same thing at all, particularly since all but the cutting of Fred were true already last year.

 

To say this guy made no sense is generous.

 

 

How in Hades does the "best defense in football" and a "competent offense" equal only 10-6???

 

This is what is bugging me about the intellectual inconsistency (dishonesty, flat-out laziness?) of nearly every national media buffoon.

 

All pre-season we heard from multiple national sources "the Bills have the best or nearly the best team 21/22 positions - if only they had decent QB play they'd be a playoff team looking to go deep. Now they have a QB solution that's almost certainly better than what they were expected to have when those comments were made, and somehow they're back to be 9-7 or worse?

Doesn't this amount to "what if Tyrod really is Russell Wilson 2.0." If he overacheives -- but realistically overachieves -- and becomes a mid-tier starting QB, how many teams with mid-tier starting QBs go better than 10-6? That's kind of the Alex Smith (or Matt Cassel?) Chiefs, which is pretty good for a team that hasn't made the playoffs in a decade and a half. I'll take it ... for now.

[PromoTheRobot]

Agree he missed on the better oline due to upgrade at guard, however rest is pretty much spot on. The defense was already one of the best and lead the league in sacks. Can't expect much upside, if any, there. So its mostly rests how the offense does under him. And while the better oline play is a given IMO, the talent positions have many questions marks

Ha ha, we have the best defense which means it can't get better so that's a strike against the Bills? Since Tom Brady can't get better I guess the Pats** are doomed as well.

[vegas55]

Wow let me just point on two very obvious misstatements in this "analysis", blunders so bad that it destroys this guys credibility. He states moves such as obtaining Mccoy and Watkins came at a "prohibitive cost". Well superstar McCoy costs us a linebacker with a bum knee, a good player but not anything close to prohibitive cost.

 

Much worse is his idiotic assertion that Bills gave up two first round picks to obtain Watkins, in effect he says, costing the Bills three first round picks to obtain Watkins. That's nonsense, but often repeated nonsense ( see WGR and Buffalo News). So one last time folks lets do the math. At the time of the 2014 NFL draft, the Bills had ONE first round pick in 2014, and ONE first round pick in 2015. After the Watkins deal, the Bills still had ONE first round pick in 2014 ( which they used to take Watkins) and no first round pick in 2015. No matter how desperate you are to criticize Bills, 2 minus 1 still and will always equal one. The Watkins trade cost the Bills ONE first round pick, not two or three.

[Dibs]

Ha ha, we have the best defense which means it can't get better so that's a strike against the Bills? Since Tom Brady can't get better I guess the Pats** are doomed as well.

Well no.....they cheat.

[dave mcbride]

If people read this piece to the end, they'll see that the Jets are on the list too. So he's really only predicting that Miami and NE will finish ahead of the Bills. One may disagree with that, but it's a plausible argument given Tannehill's upward trajectory and Miami's addition of the best defensive lineman in football this offseason.

[YoloinOhio]

 

Wins. Obviously.

 

Didn't get that memo that when you acquire players like Harvin and McCoy said team must forfeit 2 wins.

oh that's right! Winning the salary cap bowl!

[Packerland Bills Fan]

Horrible analysis. Another guy who sat in his basement and wrote something without watching any camp or exhibition games....

 

Exactly! The preseason was going to be all about finding a quarterback. They all played much better than expected. 4-12? No way.

[Wayne Cubed]

If people read this piece to the end, they'll see that the Jets are on the list too. So he's really only predicting that Miami and NE will finish ahead of the Bills. One may disagree with that, but it's a plausible argument given Tannehill's upward trajectory and Miami's addition of the best defensive lineman in football this offseason.

 

He picked the Bills because it's an easy pick, "they've been bad for 15 years". Why not pick the Bucs, Falcons, Giants, Bears or Rams? They were all pretty bad in 2015.

[Dibs]

.....

Much worse is his idiotic assertion that Bills gave up two first round picks to obtain Watkins, in effect he says, costing the Bills three first round picks to obtain Watkins....

It is a dunmb-arse article, no doubts....but he never said that. He said "Watkins cost the Bills 2 1st round picks"...which is true.

[PromoTheRobot]

If people read this piece to the end, they'll see that the Jets are on the list too. So he's really only predicting that Miami and NE will finish ahead of the Bills. One may disagree with that, but it's a plausible argument given Tannehill's upward trajectory and Miami's addition of the best defensive lineman in football this offseason.

I guarantee if Tyrod Taylor were the starting QB for any other team in the NFL the media would be giving him a daily tongue bath. There is bias against Buffalo that is entrenched. If we start 8-0 there will still be people who say the Bills are pretenders.

[YoloinOhio]

 

He picked the Bills because it's an easy pick, "they've been bad for 15 years". Why not pick the Bucs, Falcons, Giants, Bears or Rams? They were all pretty bad in 2015.

right, though they weren't bad at all last year, and have improved in many key areas. IMO of course. Edited September 7, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[The Frankish Reich]

 

How in Hades does the "best defense in football" and a "competent offense" equal only 10-6???

 

 

 

Wow, let me go back into the depths of my memory, all the way back to ... 2009! Rex Ryan's NY Jets. # 1 defense in the NFL. # 17 offense (a "competent offense?").

And they finished ... 9-7! And guess what, they sneaked into the playoffs and made it all the way to the conference championship game. Sounds like a perfectly fine best-case scenario to me ...

[1B4IDie]

@Grantland33: NFL 2015 Season Predictions, Part 1: The Cellar Dwellers, by @billbarnwell http://t.co/lzINEWRCNn

Their pod cast is just as clueless. They got bolstered by the Grantland name.

 

They have zero qualifications for the opinion other than being Grantland employees.