BobChalmers Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) The best or nearly the best at 21/22 positions?? You probably read that here at TBD. Multiple national sources? The O-line alone makes that a silly statement. The DBs (even before injury) as well. We have, maybe, 1 top 10 WR. Barnwell is a bright guy, writes well. Posters here calling him an idiot are funny. No I didn't read it here on TBD - so please edit your post. MULTIPLE talking heads on NFLN (not that they are terribly bright either) have said that. AND NOT the BEST at EACH of 21/22 - the best/among the best in TOTAL 21/22, obviously. Just one link easy to Google - http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000493967/article/seahawks-jets-and-eagles-among-nfls-most-talented-teams Bills #2. Edited September 7, 2015 by BobChalmers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 I thought the article was more on point than others here think, but also remember that he says that the best case scenario has them going 10-6. So he's not saying it's impossible for them to be good. Also bear in mind that you're not going to go broke if you make predictions on simply who the qb is. It's usually an accurate predictor, and Barnwell says as much at the beginning. I say 10-6, but I also think that our qbs are going to take us on a rocky ride. I agree. And Barnwell is one of the better writer-analysts out there. His in-season analyses are pretty great. As I've said elsewhere - we'll know more about Tyrod after Belichick's halftime adjustments week 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Betting lines are not informed predictions. They reflect the prejudice of bettors. Take the Colts game. That line is driven by Luck, period. If you look at matchups, the Bills are arguably better than the Colts at every position outside of QB. But a lot of people just bet the QB. And those uniformed betting fools would have gone 33-15 straight up betting on Luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 And those uniformed betting fools would have gone 33-15 straight up betting on Luck. Morons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 You know what's really hilarious? We spend a year agonizing over draft picks, free agents and coaching hires, and no matter what happens the net result is "we suck." Have no idea the point you are trying to make. Barnell is making the argument that as of right now, the Bils are starting a 6th round QB who was not great in college( and yes I see the majority of Tech games) , in a league that everyone knows is QB driven. Also in a league where turnover differential can be very fickle, and where it is proven much tougher to stay as a premier D than a premiere Offence. Barnwell is a stat and analytic guy..this is what the analytics will tell you. If Tyrod is the real deal, and more importantly Roman is the real deal , this will all change, and that is what he writes. But the analytics don't point to that right now. Jeez, you all carry this woe is me Buffalo chit to extremes ....same guys whining bout Barnwell here will whine bout the refs as reason Bills have not made playoffs in 15 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Morons! Look, if the betting lines are right and (heaven forbid) the Bills start 0-3, everyone will be in the depths of despair around here. I'll be saying: don't panic. They project at 8-5 the rest of the year, if Tyrod develops a bit better, if Darby doesn't get burned at corner once or twice a game, if LeSean finally comes back healthy, if the line starts to gel ... the playoffs are still in sight. Have no idea the point you are trying to make. Barnell is making the argument that as of right now, the Bils are starting a 6th round QB who was not great in college( and yes I see the majority of Tech games) , in a league that everyone knows is QB driven. Also in a league where turnover differential can be very fickle, and where it is proven much tougher to stay as a premier D than a premiere Offence. Barnwell is a stat and analytic guy..this is what the analytics will tell you. If Tyrod is the real deal, and more importantly Roman is the real deal , this will all change, and that is what he writes. But the analytics don't point to that right now. Jeez, you all carry this woe is me Buffalo chit to extremes ....same guys whining bout Barnwell here will whine bout the refs as reason Bills have not made playoffs in 15 years I think that's the key. Roman no doubt made (or had the most influence in) the key offensive personnel decisions (and non-decisions), including acquiring Tyrod, I actually like Alex Smith as a QB on a team with a good running game and a dominant defense, so I was skeptical of the move to Kaepernick -- why gamble when you're headed to the playoffs? I was wrong, he was right. Maybe he really is that good ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Morons! And just for good measure, guys making the lines also make a living at betting football..but they are uninformed. As much as I hate it though, the guys making the lines know the public will bet the favorite...so on a national betting team like the Colts expect a 1/2 difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Look, if the betting lines are right and (heaven forbid) the Bills start 0-3, everyone will be in the depths of despair around here. I'll be saying: don't panic. They project at 8-5 the rest of the year, if Tyrod develops a bit better, if Darby doesn't get burned at corner once or twice a game, if LeSean finally comes back healthy, if the line starts to gel ... the playoffs are still in sight. I think that's the key. Roman no doubt made (or had the most influence in) the key offensive personnel decisions (and non-decisions), including acquiring Tyrod, I actually like Alex Smith as a QB on a team with a good running game and a dominant defense, so I was skeptical of the move to Kaepernick -- why gamble when you're headed to the playoffs? I was wrong, he was right. Maybe he really is that good ... I was agreeing with your point about betting on QB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HamSandwhich Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) His "points" aren't even logical points. They will do worse than last year - because they cut Fred Jackson? - because 2 1st round picks was too much for Watkins? - because EJ is a bust? - because 2 seasons ago they were going to start Kolb? How does any of that drop them from 2nd to 4th in a year? His argument wasn't based in anything real - ultimately it was really more an argument of "I don't like the Bills' decisions lately"... Not really the same thing at all, particularly since all but the cutting of Fred were true already last year. To say this guy made no sense is generous. How in Hades does the "best defense in football" and a "competent offense" equal only 10-6??? This is what is bugging me about the intellectual inconsistency (dishonesty, flat-out laziness?) of nearly every national media buffoon. All pre-season we heard from multiple national sources "the Bills have the best or nearly the best team 21/22 positions - if only they had decent QB play they'd be a playoff team looking to go deep. Now they have a QB solution that's almost certainly better than what they were expected to have when those comments were made, and somehow they're back to be 9-7 or worse? This is EXACTLY what I was going to post. He just needs someone to be in the cellar I guess. The Bills and their past are easy targets. Unfortunately, those outside of WNY are not going to disagree. Edited September 7, 2015 by HamSandwhich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luxy312 Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) Barnwell's "analysis", if you can even call it that, is a complete joke. At the onset, his premise is that the bills will "bounce back and forth between Taylor and Manuel". Based on what exactly, no one knows. All we know right now is that Taylor will be the starter. He's been the most consistent on the practice field and in the preseason. Based on actual information, Taylor is the guy. So that's fail #1. Sammy Watkins costed two first round picks when he may be the third best receiver in that draft. Possibly true, but doesn't take into account that this was the best WR draft in at least 20 years. Hindsight is great, but Watkins was the consensus #1 guy at his position. Had Evans and Beckham not performed as well as they did, writers would be swooning over how well Watkins did in his rookie season. Fail #2. Now we get to the decision to trade for McCoy. Barnwell calls it "baffling". Never mind that Fred Jackson was the oldest running back in the NFL. Never mind that CJ Spiller has been hurt every year except one and can't stay on the field. According to Barnwell, it makes no sense to trade almost nothing for who's been one of the NFL's most productive RB's as a runner and receiver over the last 3 years. Fail #3. At the end of the day, they were 9-7 with a mediocre Kyle Orton last season WITHOUT the cadre of weapons they added on offense. They were 9-7 with a shoddy offensive line. Now, according to this idiot, their upside is one more win. Their downside of course is losing 5 more games. I can't believe I actually wasted 4 minutes of my life reading his crap. Edited September 7, 2015 by Luxy312 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 And just for good measure, guys making the lines also make a living at betting football..but they are uninformed. As much as I hate it though, the guys making the lines know the public will bet the favorite...so on a national betting team like the Colts expect a 1/2 difference. The betting public ultimately makes the line (not the opening line, but the final line), and until someone convinces me that individuals like us are better than the "wisdom of the crowd", I'll go with the latter. Besides, ask 100 NFL experts and I think you'd get exactly the same prediction: 8-8. I was agreeing with your point about betting on QB's. Yep, I got that ... sorry, too caught up with arguing with the other side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) The betting public ultimately makes the line (not the opening line, but the final line), and until someone convinces me that individuals like us are better than the "wisdom of the crowd", I'll go with the latter ! Not to derail this thread, but books routinely set lines where they think they will get the majority of the betting public money on one side of the line....the side they don't like. Saturday/Sunday Bettors, squares, whatever you want to call them consistently bet favorites and consistently lose...the books know this and if favorites cover consistently, mother they get crushed. They will not move the line unless they see big money coming in from the sharps on Saturday....that scares them. That money usually comes in on Monday/Tuesady. That whole they make 10 % either way is hogwash. The " wisdom of the crowd" would almost assuredly guarantee a losing season at the windows. Edited September 7, 2015 by plenzmd1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Barnwell's "analysis", if you can even call it that, is a complete joke. At the onset, his premise is that the bills will "bounce back and forth between Taylor and Manuel". Based on what exactly, no one knows. All we know right now is that Taylor will be the starter. He's been the most consistent on the practice field and in the preseason. Based on actual information, Taylor is the guy. So that's fail #1. Sammy Watkins costed two first round picks when he may be the third best receiver in that draft. Possibly true, but doesn't take into account that this was the best WR draft in at least 20 years. Hindsight is great, but Watkins was the consensus #1 guy at his position. Had Evans and Beckham not performed as well as they did, writers would be swooning over how well Watkins did in his rookie season. Fail #2. Now we get to the decision to trade for McCoy. Barnwell calls it "baffling". Never mind that Fred Jackson was the oldest running back in the NFL. Never mind that CJ Spiller has been hurt every year except one and can't stay on the field. According to Barnwell, it makes no sense to trade almost nothing for who's been one of the NFL's most productive RB's as a runner and receiver over the last 3 years. Fail #3. At the end of the day, they were 9-7 with a mediocre Kyle Orton last season WITHOUT the cadre of weapons they added on offense. They were 9-7 with a shoddy offensive line. Now, according to this idiot, their upside is one more win. Their downside of course is losing 5 more games. I can't believe I actually wasted 4 minutes of my life reading his crap. And you know that Taylor, an undersized running QB, will survive 16 starts in a row in the NFL? And the money spent on McCoy is irrelevant because, after all, they only traded an injured Kiko for him? And you know that Tyrod Taylor, he of zero NFL starts and zero meaningful NFL action, will be superior to the "mediocre" Kyle Orton? And you know that the defense necessarily got better, instead of very possibly regressing this year? And you know that Dan Carpenter will have a career season two years in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 And just for good measure, guys making the lines also make a living at betting football..but they are uninformed. As much as I hate it though, the guys making the lines know the public will bet the favorite...so on a national betting team like the Colts expect a 1/2 difference. IE the betting lines are based on the national collective group-think. Not based on any analysis of the relevant facts to winning and losing. The books don't care if they are right on the outcome - they only need to be at the 50/50 point of the bettors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Fong Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 I really take issue with his floor for this team. 4-12 I feel is ridiculous. If this team goes 4-12 it's an unmitigated disaster. Maybe I'm looking at it with rose colored glasses, but I just don't see a way that this team does that poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Not to derail this thread, but books routinely set lines where they think they will get the majority of the betting public money on one side of the line....the side they don't like. Saturday/Sunday Bettors, squares, whatever you want to call them consistently bet favorites and consistently lose...the books know this and if favorites win,mother get crushed. That whole they make 10 % either way is hogwash. The " wisdom of the crowd" would almost assuredly guarantee a losing season at the windows. Say what? The books win the ties - they are all about getting the line splitting the public evenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Luck vs. the spread in his 3 NFL seasons: 11-6, 12-6, 13-6. Methinks perhaps the betting public is underestimating (not overestimating) his value ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) And you know that Taylor, an undersized running QB, will survive 16 starts in a row in the NFL? And the money spent on McCoy is irrelevant because, after all, they only traded an injured Kiko for him? And you know that Tyrod Taylor, he of zero NFL starts and zero meaningful NFL action, will be superior to the "mediocre" Kyle Orton? And you know that the defense necessarily got better, instead of very possibly regressing this year? And you know that Dan Carpenter will have a career season two years in a row? What I know is that if ALL of that happens, they will do much better that 10-6. That's the dumb part of these articles - they are refusing to project the playoff turnover that happens everywhere else in the NFL on to the Bills and for essentially emotional reasons. Edited September 7, 2015 by BobChalmers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) Say what? The books win the ties - they are all about getting the line splitting the public evenly. Not to be a real jerk here...this could not be further form the truth. Look any Sunday at what's called money flow ....every week you will see a lot of games where 65-85 % of the money is on one side....usually the favorite. Books make their money on betting against the public....do some quick googling you will find plenty to support. The theory we grew up with is massively outdated in the last 20 years. Edited September 7, 2015 by plenzmd1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Meanwhile, FWIW, the Bills vs the spread last 3 seasons: 6-10, 6-10, 9-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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