Grantland predicts Bills to be a cellar dweller in 2015

[PromoTheRobot]

It is a dunmb-arse article, no doubts....but he never said that. He said "Watkins cost the Bills 2 1st round picks"...which is true.

If you ignore the 1st round pick we got in trade then sure, it's true. Just like the sky is purple if you ignore that it's blue. Edited September 7, 2015 by PromoTheRobot

[Bill from NYC]

If you ignore the 1st round pick we got in trade then sure, it's true. Just like the sky is purple if you ignore that it's blue.

Good point. So as it turns out the trade didn't cost anything.

[BillsVet]

Wait, Barnwell's not a Bills fan?

[Dibs]

If you ignore the 1st round pick we got in trade then sure, it's true. Just like the sky is purple if you ignore that it's blue.

Huh? Dareus cost us one 1st round pick. Darby cost us one 2nd round pick. Watkins cost us two 1st round picks.

 

Just because someone uses sleightly different termanology that somebody else does not mean they have some sort of agenda.

[Wayne Cubed]

right, though they weren't bad at all last year, and have improved in many key areas. IMO of course.

 

Of course, I think they've improved in a lot of areas as well. It's just an easy pick for national reporters because for the last 15 years Buffalo has been pretty much a cellar dweller. No surprise the other "cellar dwellers" are in the article as well(Browns, Jest, Washington, Jaguars, Raiders). He picked the Bills to be cellar dwellers in 2013 and 2014. If you look at 2013 and 2014 he picked pretty much the same teams.

 

Anyways, winning cures all.

[JohnC]

I thought the article was more on point than others here think, but also remember that he says that the best case scenario has them going 10-6. So he's not saying it's impossible for them to be good. Also bear in mind that you're not going to go broke if you make predictions on simply who the qb is. It's usually an accurate predictor, and Barnwell says as much at the beginning.

 

I say 10-6, but I also think that our qbs are going to take us on a rocky ride.

What it comes down to for us (as you pointed out) is the qb play. The organization isn't expecting dazzling qb play that elite teams have. If the team can get solid and smart qb play then this team will fall within the borderline playoff (wildcard) range.

 

The Bills have a group off offensive playmakers composed of Watkins, Woods, Clay, Shady and Harvin. Can the starting qb get the ball in their hands on a sustained basis? While many people want TT to make plays with his feet I don't, other than to mostly buy time to keep the play alive.

 

From what I have seen from TT this preseason he has demonstrated passing and running talents that we haven't seen from our qbs in a long time. If he can play smart by not needlessly exposing his body then there is a good chance that the team can make the jump into relevancy and late season seriousness.

[PromoTheRobot]

Good point. So as it turns out the trade didn't cost anything.

It cost one 1st round pick (and a fourth.) Not two or three, as is being argued. It's math.

[jester43]

 

Sounds like you have ingrained negative expectations based on the past seasons of futility.

it's not ingrained anything...it's called objectivity!

 

For the record, i want 19-0! But i can't just dismiss people who have reasonable reasons to be skeptical...and Barnwell's are.

 

Year after year these guys mostly predict bad things about our team, and year after year they are proven right. So now he doesn't know what he's talking about because Bills fans are optimistic?

 

No one asked my what my expectations are. I'll be disappointed if we don't win 11. But I can't fault someone who doesn't agree...at least for the reasons he listed in that story.

[PromoTheRobot]

Huh? Dareus cost us one 1st round pick. Darby cost us one 2nd round pick. Watkins cost us two 1st round picks.

 

Just because someone uses sleightly different termanology that somebody else does not mean they have some sort of agenda.

Oh really?

[plenzmd1]

Dave, I am with you. I like Barnwell, like his analysis. Great to point out he hit last year on the money. And if any other team had Tyrod starting, we would think they were not going to be very good either...great D or no great D.

 

 

Jeez, with the amount of bashing of GR, ESPN, SI, Grantland....do all writers/ media suck if they say anything other than " Bills win the East" .

[Mr. WEO]

 

 

All pre-season we heard from multiple national sources "the Bills have the best or nearly the best team 21/22 positions -

 

The best or nearly the best at 21/22 positions??

 

You probably read that here at TBD. Multiple national sources? The O-line alone makes that a silly statement. The DBs (even before injury) as well. We have, maybe, 1 top 10 WR.

 

Barnwell is a bright guy, writes well. Posters here calling him an idiot are funny.

[QB Bills]

This place is hilarious. If Barnwell had predicted the Bills to win the division, everyone here would be praising him for being an intelligently informed analyst who always digs deeper than his lazy peers.

[PromoTheRobot]

You know what's really hilarious? We spend a year agonizing over draft picks, free agents and coaching hires, and no matter what happens the net result is "we suck."

[The Frankish Reich]

it's not ingrained anything...it's called objectivity!

 

For the record, i want 19-0! But i can't just dismiss people who have reasonable reasons to be skeptical...and Barnwell's are.

 

Year after year these guys mostly predict bad things about our team, and year after year they are proven right. So now he doesn't know what he's talking about because Bills fans are optimistic?

 

No one asked my what my expectations are. I'll be disappointed if we don't win 11. But I can't fault someone who doesn't agree...at least for the reasons he listed in that story.

Exactly. I haven't checked the predictions threads lately, but as things stand right now, can anyone argue with this? Which team will be favored as of today:

 

vs. Indy: L (early line is about Indy -3)

vs. Pats: L (the judge just cost us a predicted win)

at Miami: L (home team; otherwise probably about even)

vs. NYG: W

at Tenn: W

vs Cincy: L

Jax in London: W

vs. Miami: W (home team again)

at Jets: W (but this one, right now, would probably be about even with Jets at home)

at Pats: L

at KC: L

vs. Hou: W

at Philly: L

at Wash: W

vs. Dallas: L

vs. Jets: W

 

That's 8-8. That's not my prediction, or Barnwell's, or any other individual's. That's what the betting lines would no doubt show. I don't see any real argument with this. So 10-6? Obviously within reach. That's a few lucky bounces. 6-10? Also obviously realistic. A key injury or two, a few bad bounces. So about all I can say is Barnwell's worst case scenario is a bit low, but his best case scenario seems right on point. To get there the Bills would still need to steal a win or two and avoid losing to a team they should beat. I'm a Bills fan - have been for 45 years - but I live in the real world.

One fair anti-Barnwell point: although his best/worst case scenarios make sense, I'm not sure why a team that fairly projects at 8-8 (the definition of average) is in his lowest tier ("The Cellar Dwellers"). I'm not sure his analysis agrees with his own categorization of the Bills as a 4th tier team ...

[Dibs]

Oh really?

Well, yes. It doesn't mean that they don't....but it certainly doesn't mean that they do. Why question something so obvious?

 

And re: the maths... The trade cost the Bills one 1st round pick. The player cost the Bills two 1st round picks. Do you honestly think that people who word it that way (myself included) are somehow tŕying to say that the trade cost us two first round picks? Even though every Bills fan(and anyone else who was interestdd on draft day) knows exactly what the trade was?

 

For the record, I liked the trade at the time of the draft....liked it all last year....and still like it now. Two picks IMO is well worth it for one of the premium prospects in the draft....particularly for a character like Watkins.

[BobChalmers]

Doesn't this amount to "what if Tyrod really is Russell Wilson 2.0." If he overacheives -- but realistically overachieves -- and becomes a mid-tier starting QB, how many teams with mid-tier starting QBs go better than 10-6? That's kind of the Alex Smith (or Matt Cassel?) Chiefs, which is pretty good for a team that hasn't made the playoffs in a decade and a half. I'll take it ... for now.

 

The same teams that "have the best defense in football".

[FireChan]

It cost one 1st round pick (and a fourth.) Not two or three, as is being argued. It's math.

Getting Watkins on this roster meant using or losing 2 firsts.

[The Frankish Reich]

 

The same teams that "have the best defense in football".

Well, close -- the 2014 Chiefs had the 2nd best defense in football. They went 9-7. As I mentioned above, Rex's 2009 Jets had the best defense in football, and they finished 9-7. And the answer is: A. Alex Smith. B. Mark Sanchez.

[PromoTheRobot]

Exactly. I haven't checked the predictions threads lately, but as things stand right now, can anyone argue with this? Which team will be favored as of today:

 

vs. Indy: L (early line is about Indy -3)

vs. Pats: L (the judge just cost us a predicted win)

at Miami: L (home team; otherwise probably about even)

vs. NYG: W

at Tenn: W

vs Cincy: L

Jax in London: W

vs. Miami: W (home team again)

at Jets: W (but this one, right now, would probably be about even with Jets at home)

at Pats: L

at KC: L

vs. Hou: W

at Philly: L

at Wash: W

vs. Dallas: L

vs. Jets: W

 

That's 8-8. That's not my prediction, or Barnwell's, or any other individual's. That's what the betting lines would no doubt show. I don't see any real argument with this. So 10-6? Obviously within reach. That's a few lucky bounces. 6-10? Also obviously realistic. A key injury or two, a few bad bounces. So about all I can say is Barnwell's worst case scenario is a bit low, but his best case scenario seems right on point. To get there the Bills would still need to steal a win or two and avoid losing to a team they should beat. I'm a Bills fan - have been for 45 years - but I live in the real world.

 

One fair anti-Barnwell point: although his best/worst case scenarios make sense, I'm not sure why a team that fairly projects at 8-8 (the definition of average) is in his lowest tier ("The Cellar Dwellers"). I'm not sure his analysis agrees with his own categorization of the Bills as a 4th tier team ...

Betting lines are not informed predictions. They reflect the prejudice of bettors.

 

Take the Colts game. That line is driven by Luck, period. If you look at matchups, the Bills are arguably better than the Colts at every position outside of QB. But a lot of people just bet the QB.

[Ohiostyle]

This is just a classic case of serving content up on a platter.... quality suffers at the expense of quantity. This time of year they're taking advantage of our ferver, thinking no one will notice.