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Updated: The AFC Playoff Picture


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Seen arguments both ways when it comes to rooting interests in tonight's KC/Denver game. I'm yet to be convinced either way.

 

Even with Denver losing to KC and us hypothetically beating them next week, we would only unseat them temporarily, unless you think they can lose @San Diego and @Cincy. I mean, it's possible but I don't see how this Broncos team misses the playoffs. Meanwhile the Chiefs have @Arizona, @Pitt and San Diego down the stretch and those could go either way. Both play the Raiders and I'll chalk those up as wins.

 

I'm going to take Denver here and hope KC drops at least two of their other games. That loss for us, above all, is going to hurt us the most, methinks.

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As I mention on the other thread.....

 

Buffalo loses H2H with KC and SD and HOU. They have H2H on Cleveland

 

With Pittsburgh they lose because of conference record with pit right now 1-2 and buffalo 3-0

 

Baltimore if buffalo lose to Green Bay they will have a better conference record with Balt going 4-0. If buffalo beats GB going 4-0 then common opponent comes into play with Baltimore likely winning because buffalo has played CZlE, MIA, HOU, and SD. Buffalo is done at 2-3 while Baltimore is 2-1.

 

I don't see Indy losing the division. Cincy kissed their sister so there won't be ties factored with them.

 

Best scenario for buffalo...

 

Buffalo beat Denver

Denver finished in 2nd with KC or SD winning it

Cleveland finishes in 2nd

 

Buffalo has H2H on both teams.

 

Buffalo can still win the division if they can

 

Gain 2 games on New England before week 17 thus being one game out then it's potentially winner take all week 17 game.

Miami could have the 3 team tiebreaker if the sweep New England.

Buffalo has the 3rd tie breaker on New England if tied by them going 1-1 in noncommon games vs New England going 2-0. They have the same edge on Miami if they beat Baltimore next week.

 

If Miami lose to Baltimore Aldo going 1-1 then Miami will have the 4th tiebreaker of conference record with them going 1-2 vs buffalo 3-0 against NFC.

 

They need Miami to lose a game. If buffalo and Miami win out Miami is ahead of buffalo by division record tiebreaker. The person who showed those standings are incorrect. Technically Miami is in 2nd right now because of the potential to be better in division record.

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As I mention on the other thread.....

 

Buffalo loses H2H with KC and SD and HOU. They have H2H on Cleveland

 

With Pittsburgh they lose because of conference record with pit right now 1-2 and buffalo 3-0

 

Baltimore if buffalo lose to Green Bay they will have a better conference record with Balt going 4-0. If buffalo beats GB going 4-0 then common opponent comes into play with Baltimore likely winning because buffalo has played CZlE, MIA, HOU, and SD. Buffalo is done at 2-3 while Baltimore is 2-1.

 

I don't see Indy losing the division. Cincy kissed their sister so there won't be ties factored with them.

 

Best scenario for buffalo...

 

Buffalo beat Denver

Denver finished in 2nd with KC or SD winning it

Cleveland finishes in 2nd

 

Buffalo has H2H on both teams.

 

Buffalo can still win the division if they can

 

Gain 2 games on New England before week 17 thus being one game out then it's potentially winner take all week 17 game.

Miami could have the 3 team tiebreaker if the sweep New England.

Buffalo has the 3rd tie breaker on New England if tied by them going 1-1 in noncommon games vs New England going 2-0. They have the same edge on Miami if they beat Baltimore next week.

 

If Miami lose to Baltimore Aldo going 1-1 then Miami will have the 4th tiebreaker of conference record with them going 1-2 vs buffalo 3-0 against NFC.

 

They need Miami to lose a game. If buffalo and Miami win out Miami is ahead of buffalo by division record tiebreaker. The person who showed those standings are incorrect. Technically Miami is in 2nd right now because of the potential to be better in division record.

so we want Denver to lose tonight? Edited by YoloinOhio
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bills would be 11-1 with a franchise QB (top 10).

 

bills would be 10-2 with a very good QB (top 10-15).

 

bills would be 9-3 with a good QB (top 15-20).

 

bills would be 8-4 with a mediocre QB (top 20-25)

 

bills are 7-5 in spite of a bad QB (top 25-30).

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so we want Denver to lose tonight?

 

I get the argument that loses this week and next will put us over Denver, but I just can't see them losing so many down the stretch. KC, on the other hand, would be tied with us this week and has a handful of toss ups they can certaintly lose.

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Only for now. Miami goes ahead with a win on Monday.

 

Miami would be ahead of them because buffalo is 3-2 in division vs Miami 3-1.. Better win pct and better record potential.

 

If buffalo and Baltimore win out Baltimore would be ahead of buffalo due to common games.

 

 

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I get the argument that loses this week and next will put us over Denver, but I just can't see them losing so many down the stretch. KC, on the other hand, would be tied with us this week and has a handful of toss ups they can certaintly lose.

 

I kind of agree with this without looking at the actual numbers. Seems like we'd rather see Denver pull away with it (with a loss to the Bills notwithstanding) and watch the Chefs nosedive to the finish. I don't see the Broncos missing the playoffs.

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I kind of agree with this without looking at the actual numbers. Seems like we'd rather see Denver pull away with it (with a loss to the Bills notwithstanding) and watch the Chefs nosedive to the finish. I don't see the Broncos missing the playoffs.

i also think, if there is a chance the Bills can beat them next week, it's better if they aren't coming off a loss
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so we want Denver to lose tonight?

 

It doesn't matter as much.

 

If they beat KC it's a season sweep thus a 3 game edge on KC which could keep Denver not falling to 3rd. Then we need to root fir SD. Bills bear Denver...Denver at San Diego in a few weeks would give Denver the other loss.

 

If they lose that gives them the 1st loss then KC is tied with them then you need to root fir KC to take the division then hope Denver beats SD to sweep season series which could make it for Denver to be 2nd.

 

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As I mention on the other thread.....

 

Buffalo loses H2H with KC and SD and HOU. They have H2H on Cleveland

 

With Pittsburgh they lose because of conference record with pit right now 1-2 and buffalo 3-0

 

Baltimore if buffalo lose to Green Bay they will have a better conference record with Balt going 4-0. If buffalo beats GB going 4-0 then common opponent comes into play with Baltimore likely winning because buffalo has played CZlE, MIA, HOU, and SD. Buffalo is done at 2-3 while Baltimore is 2-1.

 

I don't see Indy losing the division. Cincy kissed their sister so there won't be ties factored with them.

 

Best scenario for buffalo...

 

Buffalo beat Denver

Denver finished in 2nd with KC or SD winning it

Cleveland finishes in 2nd

 

Buffalo has H2H on both teams.

 

Buffalo can still win the division if they can

 

Gain 2 games on New England before week 17 thus being one game out then it's potentially winner take all week 17 game.

Miami could have the 3 team tiebreaker if the sweep New England.

Buffalo has the 3rd tie breaker on New England if tied by them going 1-1 in noncommon games vs New England going 2-0. They have the same edge on Miami if they beat Baltimore next week.

 

If Miami lose to Baltimore Aldo going 1-1 then Miami will have the 4th tiebreaker of conference record with them going 1-2 vs buffalo 3-0 against NFC.

 

They need Miami to lose a game. If buffalo and Miami win out Miami is ahead of buffalo by division record tiebreaker. The person who showed those standings are incorrect. Technically Miami is in 2nd right now because of the potential to be better in division record.

 

Go KC? That will make work unbearable

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Only for now. Miami goes ahead with a win on Monday.

 

Miami would be ahead of them because buffalo is 3-2 in division vs Miami 3-1.. Better win pct and better record potential.

 

If buffalo and Baltimore win out Baltimore would be ahead of buffalo due to common games.

 

I'm really hoping Geno and the Jets play for pride tomorrow.

 

The siuation with Baltimore also depends on where they stack in the division. Also it's important to note that if Baltimore wins out and we win out, Miami and Cleveland are out of the playoffs. San Diego and KC seem unlikely to get to 11-5 at this point also. I'd assume that winning out means we're in somehow. That's still asking a lot.

Edited by Big C
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I kind of agree with this without looking at the actual numbers. Seems like we'd rather see Denver pull away with it (with a loss to the Bills notwithstanding) and watch the Chefs nosedive to the finish. I don't see the Broncos missing the playoffs.

 

 

Denver. At KC, buffalo, at San Diego, at cincinati, Oakland

San Diego New England, Denver, at Sf, At KC

KC. Denver, at AZ, Oakland, at Pittsburgh, San Diego

 

You want SD to beat NE

 

 

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i also think, if there is a chance the Bills can beat them next week, it's better if they aren't coming off a loss

 

Also a point to consider.

 

Well...at the very least, it will be December tomorrow, and the Bills will still (temporaraily) be in the discussion for a playoff spot. Progress!!

 

One spot out! Love it!

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i also think, if there is a chance the Bills can beat them next week, it's better if they aren't coming off a loss

This is all I'm thinking of right now. I don't want to see the Bills play in Denver while they're coming off a loss. I hope Manning lights it up tonight and the team relaxes a bit.

Edited by Acantha
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