EJ benched, Orton to start.

[hondo in seattle]

What can we expect from Kyle Orton?

 

I thought it might be interesting to look at his productivity with Denver. He was still young and immature when starting for Chicago and the Bears didn't give him enough weapons to work with.

 

So on to the Mile High city... In Orton's two years as Denver's starter, he averaged 256 yards per game. Let's assume Orton hasn't gotten worse since then - he may have gotten better. Let's also assume Hackett is a competent OC who can design a competent passing attack and the Bills wideouts and O Line are as more-or-less proficient as the Broncos of 2009-2010. It's a lot of assumptions, I know, but I'm going to say Orton is capable of passing for 256 yards per game as a Bill.

 

Last year our rushing attack chipped in 144 yards per game. Let's assume they have the ability to repeat that performance especially if we have a QB that can challenge and stretch defenses.

 

The Bills would then be rolling up 400 yards per game!

 

My assumptions aren't overly ambitious, I don't think. I'm only expecting the Bills backs to do what they've done and Kyle to do what he's done.

 

Even if 400 yards per game is exaggerated, I do believe a Kyle led offense can produce more than 320 yards per game which is what we're averaging now.

[Orton's Arm]

See stats above (I modified my post). They were not a good pass defense. Against the Rams, that great pass D allowed Warner to win the Super Bowl MVP with a 99.7 rating for the game. The only reason they were in it is because they shut down the run (which they were good at during the regular season).

 

 

It wasn't one play; it was a few. And I do agree he played badly in that game. The thing is, that defense was great and no one knew it yet. As for Johnson, he left the field with a lead, but the Bills had only scored 16 points against a mediocre pass D and a D that was 15th in points allowed (out of 30 teams) and 17th in yards allowed. There are a lot myths floating around about how good that Titans D was. The Rams put up 436 yards against them, which was 35 yards above their season average of 401.

 

And I'm not even really speaking as a Flutie fan - I was open at the time to the move. It was in 2000 that I realized that Flutie was simply a better player than Johnson. Basically, the facts (as I understand them) have shaped my perspective. If nothing else, the Flutie-Johnson debate opened my eyes to how important sack avoidance is for a QB. Far more often than I realized at the time, sacks fall on the QB's shoulders.

 

The statistics you've provided bear out your argument. Granted, statistics can sometimes lead themselves to distortions. For example, people cite Manuel's decent completion percentage as an indicator of competent play. When in reality, that completion percentage is decent mostly because of his tendency to avoid nearly all passes more than five yards past the line of scrimmage.

 

In this case however, I can't think of any obvious statistical distortions. That doesn't mean there aren't any. If stats like QBR or air yards per attempt were available for the performances in question, I'd certainly like to look at those as well. But given the data you've provided, it does seem as though Flutie was playing at a higher level than Johnson during the time frame in question.

 

Flutie's statistical drop-off during the 1999 season has sometimes been blamed on the Moulds injury. You mentioned that during Flutie's final four games played of that season, he averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. How many of those games (if any) was Moulds present for?

[GG]

I've read that the Bills haven't won a playoff game since Bill Clinton was president. While that's certainly true, it didn't seem to state things emphatically enough. There's been enough time since the Bills' last playoff win for someone to be conceived, born, grow up, and become famous.

 

So I started thinking of examples of young celebrities. I'm not great at keeping track of celebrities; so if you have better examples than the ones I've given, please share them. The Bills' last playoff win was in 1995; so you're looking for celebrities born around that time.

 

Since this is a thread about Bills' QBs there should at least have been a mention of Dakota Fanning.

[PromoTheRobot]

See stats above (I modified my post). They were not a good pass defense. Against the Rams, that great pass D allowed Warner to win the Super Bowl MVP with a 99.7 rating for the game. The only reason they were in it is because they shut down the run (which they were good at during the regular season).

 

 

It wasn't one play; it was a few. And I do agree he played badly in that game. The thing is, that defense was great and no one knew it yet. As for Johnson, he left the field with a lead, but the Bills had only scored 16 points against a mediocre pass D and a D that was 15th in points allowed (out of 30 teams) and 17th in yards allowed. There are a lot myths floating around about how good that Titans D was. The Rams put up 436 yards against them, which was 35 yards above their season average of 401.

 

And I'm not even really speaking as a Flutie fan - I was open at the time to the move. It was in 2000 that I realized that Flutie was simply a better player than Johnson. Basically, the facts (as I understand them) have shaped my perspective. If nothing else, the Flutie-Johnson debate opened my eyes to how important sack avoidance is for a QB. Far more often than I realized at the time, sacks fall on the QB's shoulders.

You are arguing shoulda, coulda, woulda here. You are making the leap that Flutie would have been better than RJ since the Titans were ranked so low. That is totally bogus. Ever hear the phrase "any given Sunday?" Teams get up for games, especially playoff games. Toss the stats out the window. They are meaningless. The only stat that matters is the scoreboard and we were winning until that kickoff. Any attempt to argue Flutie would have done better is specious.

[dave mcbride]

The statistics you've provided bear out your argument. Granted, statistics can sometimes lead themselves to distortions. For example, people cite Manuel's decent completion percentage as an indicator of competent play. When in reality, that completion percentage is decent mostly because of his tendency to avoid nearly all passes more than five yards past the line of scrimmage.

 

In this case however, I can't think of any obvious statistical distortions. That doesn't mean there aren't any. If stats like QBR or air yards per attempt were available for the performances in question, I'd certainly like to look at those as well. But given the data you've provided, it does seem as though Flutie was playing at a higher level than Johnson during the time frame in question.

 

Flutie's statistical drop-off during the 1999 season has sometimes been blamed on the Moulds injury. You mentioned that during Flutie's final four games played of that season, he averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. How many of those games (if any) was Moulds present for?

 

I've brought up Moulds' absence before. In the two games Moulds missed in full (he missed most of the final quarter of a third game too, a game in which the Bills beat the Raiders), Flutie had a 46.7 completion rate, 5.0 ypa average, and a rating of 49.2. In the third game in which Moulds went out with a hamstring injury (the Raiders game), Flutie had a rating of 39.7 - 19/41 for 210 yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs.

 

Moulds was present for the final four games. He missed the Seahawks and Ravens games in full. The Bills lost both.

 

You are arguing shoulda, coulda, woulda here. You are making the leap that Flutie would have been better than RJ since the Titans were ranked so low. That is totally bogus. Ever hear the phrase "any given Sunday?" Teams get up for games, especially playoff games. Toss the stats out the window. They are meaningless. The only stat that matters is the scoreboard and we were winning until that kickoff. Any attempt to argue Flutie would have done better is specious.

You can believe what you want to believe. The coach and virtually all of the players favored starting Flutie.

Edited October 3, 2014 by dave mcbride

[Augie]

Maybe a stupid question, and probably already addressed, but how exactly did Orton "convince" the Cowboys to cut him thereby allowing him to keep all of his signing bonus? If he was threatening to retire... let him. Get part of the signing bonus back and, more importantly, retain his rights. What would we have paid in terms of draft choices when we basically had no other options? If I'm a Cowboys fan I'd be ticked!

[reddogblitz]

It wasn't one play; it was a few. And I do agree he played badly in that game. The thing is, that defense was great and no one knew it yet. As for Johnson, he left the field with a lead, but the Bills had only scored 16 points against a mediocre pass D and a D that was 15th in points allowed (out of 30 teams) and 17th in yards allowed.

 

Let's not forget also that the Titans got 2 points when Rob Johnson fumbled the football out of the back of the EZ. Nothing fires up a team like a safety and as often happens they take the punt and score at least 3 if not 7. Titans got 7 for a total of 9 It was their only TD of the game.

 

So Rob Johnson even with the shoeless comeback FG, screwed the pooch that day.

 

Johnson over RJ in the playoffs goes down as one of the most bone-headed decisions EVER by an NFL team.

Edited October 4, 2014 by reddogblitz

[KDIGGZ]

Tomorrow is the day...

 

I had a bad dream that Kyle Orton stunk up the field (he looked like Matt Leinart or Jordan Palmer in preseason). So what happens if he's terrible? Let's say 15-35 for 150 yards and 0 TD and 3 INT bad? Do we go right back to EJ or does Orton get another shot vs the Pats (a team EJ has played well against in the past)? The Lions have a great D-Line (like us) and they know we want to run the ball so they are just going to put 8 in the box. Orton is going to have to show that he can make some throws early or it's going to be over before it even started. He didn't play in the preseason so nobody has seen this guy play yet. Things could get real bad if he gets off to a slow start. If I'm OC for the week, I'm calling some play action quick short throws to start the game to get him in the groove and a few screen plays are good for confidence and stats boosting. If play #1 is CJ on the shotgun handoff up the middle it's going to be a looooong day

[K-9]

Tomorrow is the day...

 

I had a bad dream that Kyle Orton stunk up the field (he looked like Matt Leinart or Jordan Palmer in preseason). So what happens if he's terrible? Let's say 15-35 for 150 yards and 0 TD and 3 INT bad? Do we go right back to EJ or does Orton get another shot vs the Pats (a team EJ has played well against in the past)? The Lions have a great D-Line (like us) and they know we want to run the ball so they are just going to put 8 in the box. Orton is going to have to show that he can make some throws early or it's going to be over before it even started. He didn't play in the preseason so nobody has seen this guy play yet. Things could get real bad if he gets off to a slow start. If I'm OC for the week, I'm calling some play action quick short throws to start the game to get him in the groove and a few screen plays are good for confidence and stats boosting. If play #1 is CJ on the shotgun handoff up the middle it's going to be a looooong day

 

There are some things I'd like to see Hackett do from a formation standpoint to mitigate 8 in the box, chiefly, get away from his preference for running the ball out of tight/bunched formations by spreading the D out. I don't think he trusts his OLine enough. That said, Orton won't be timid about attacking an 8 man look, either. Chandler could be huge tomorrow. And I think we'll see Orton take some shots downfield vs. 8 man fronts, too. We make them pay like that, they'll get out of that quickly enough. I'm just concerned about the rust Orton must have since he last laced them up. The speed he'll see tomorrow is not like what he's seen in practice settings. That takes some getting used to.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[FluffHead]

@RapSheet: True RT @AroundTheNFL: The relationship in Dallas between Kyle Orton and Tony Romo was 'untenable,' per @RapSheet.

 

@RapSheet: #Bills coach Doug Marrone initially worried Kyle Orton's arrival & salary would damage EJ Manuel's confidence. He came around very quickly.

 

@RapSheet: When did #Bills coach Doug Marrone decide to make a QB change? In the locker room Sunday. Checked with team vets who offered no resistance

[Nanker]

Maybe a stupid question, and probably already addressed, but how exactly did Orton "convince" the Cowboys to cut him thereby allowing him to keep all of his signing bonus? If he was threatening to retire... let him. Get part of the signing bonus back and, more importantly, retain his rights. What would we have paid in terms of draft choices when we basically had no other options? If I'm a Cowboys fan I'd be ticked!

 

The information you seek is here. In short, they released him.

[26CornerBlitz]

Orton, Romo relationship was 'untenable' on Cowboys

NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport told NFL GameDay Morning that Orton's decision to walk out on the Cowboys and sign with the Bills this summer was heavily fueled by the veteran quarterback's poor relationship with Dallas starter Tony Romo.

[Sisyphean Bills]

There are some things I'd like to see Hackett do from a formation standpoint to mitigate 8 in the box, chiefly, get away from his preference for running the ball out of tight/bunched formations by spreading the D out. I don't think he trusts his OLine enough. That said, Orton won't be timid about attacking an 8 man look, either. Chandler could be huge tomorrow. And I think we'll see Orton take some shots downfield vs. 8 man fronts, too. We make them pay like that, they'll get out of that quickly enough. I'm just concerned about the rust Orton must have since he last laced them up. The speed he'll see tomorrow is not like what he's seen in practice settings. That takes some getting used to.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I wouldn't trust his OL either, if I was him.

 

Hopefully, Orton brings a lot more "Fitz" under center than "Manuel". For all of Fitzpick's faults, pre-snap reads and getting the ball out is not on the list.

[Beerball]

Orton, Romo relationship was 'untenable' on Cowboys

Sorry, you were 26CornerBlitzed by FluffHead.

[26CornerBlitz]

Sorry, you were 26CornerBlitzed by FluffHead.

 

No link means it doesn't count.

[MDH]

Over a decade later and the Bills have done nothing to excite the fans so we're still reduced to arguing over two crappy QBs that couldn't get the job done back in the day. Ugh.

[26CornerBlitz]

Jaws thinks benching EJ is the right move for win now: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11646532/jimbo-fisher-florida-state-seminoles-told-nfl-teams-ej-manuel-backup