thebandit27 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 (edited) People always seem to overestimate the trade value of their own team's players. At this point in his career, with his history of antics and injuries, we'd be lucky to get a 5th for him. Maybe, maybe, a 4th. But I doubt that. Even considering trading our #9 + Stevie to move up is foolish. It would take our #9, Stevie, and considerably more. But we're not trading him anyway. You're right that we're probably not trading him. As for what he's worth, again I'll make the Percy Harvin comparison. Yes, I know, Stevie's not Harvin; they are different players. However, compare their production over the course of their careers, and you'll notice is very, very similar. http://espn.go.com/n...8/steve-johnson http://espn.go.com/n...69/percy-harvin Harvin netted 1st, 4th, and 7th round picks in a trade last year...I'm not saying Stevie is worth that much, as he is a different player, but let's not confuse the issue here: they've both been starters for 4 years, and in that time, Stevie has more catches, more yards, a higher yard-per-reception average, more receiving TDs (Harvin has 1 more total TD thanks to rushing TDs and KRs), and fewer fumbles. Harvin holds a slight (and I mean slight) edge in yards from scrimmage, but does have added value as a kick returner. Harvin is 2 years younger, so I understand if he fetches a greater haul, but let's not pretend that their productivity on the field isn't very, very similar. Stevie is worth far more than a 5th round pick. EDIT: I realized after reading it that this post may have come off sounding adversarial...that was not my intent...just wanted to lay out the facts. Edited April 24, 2014 by thebandit27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Again, if the objective is winning, you don't let your best Safety walk, and then draft a replacement for him in the 1st round, and you don't get rid of your best receiver, and draft a replacement for him in the 1st round. All you're doing is spinning the wheels. It makes absolutely no sense for the Bills to trade Stevie Johnson and then look to draft someone to replace him. agreed. But they did this w/ RB's for quite a while. Bills MO! I don't see them trading S. Johnson unless the return is huge. I mean, there is no player on the Bills not worth trading if the return is huge. It would have to be a move up in this draft and an instant HR type player. Quite a gamble, given that Stevie and EJ have been working together. And Stevie + Williams + Woods is a good trio, add in a TE from the draft and Chandler, plus another WR (deep draft at the position) and Goodwin, I'm not seeing a reason to trade. You're right that we're probably not trading him. As for what he's worth, again I'll make the Percy Harvin comparison. Yes, I know, Stevie's not Harvin; they are different players. However, compare their production over the course of their careers, and you'll notice is very, very similar. http://espn.go.com/n...8/steve-johnson http://espn.go.com/n...69/percy-harvin Harvin netted 1st, 4th, and 7th round picks in a trade last year...I'm not saying Stevie is worth that much, as he is a different player, but let's not confuse the issue here: they've both been starters for 4 years, and in that time, Stevie has more catches, more yards, a higher yard-per-reception average, more receiving TDs (Harvin has 1 more total TD thanks to rushing TDs and KRs), and fewer fumbles. Harvin holds a slight (and I mean slight) edge in yards from scrimmage, but does have added value as a kick returner. Harvin is 2 years younger, so I understand if he fetches a greater haul, but let's not pretend that their productivity on the field isn't very, very similar. Stevie is worth far more than a 5th round pick. I would trade Stevie only if we could get a Harvin type return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 (edited) You're right that we're probably not trading him. As for what he's worth, again I'll make the Percy Harvin comparison. Yes, I know, Stevie's not Harvin; they are different players. However, compare their production over the course of their careers, and you'll notice is very, very similar. http://espn.go.com/n...8/steve-johnson http://espn.go.com/n...69/percy-harvin Harvin netted 1st, 4th, and 7th round picks in a trade last year...I'm not saying Stevie is worth that much, as he is a different player, but let's not confuse the issue here: they've both been starters for 4 years, and in that time, Stevie has more catches, more yards, a higher yard-per-reception average, more receiving TDs (Harvin has 1 more total TD thanks to rushing TDs and KRs), and fewer fumbles. Harvin holds a slight (and I mean slight) edge in yards from scrimmage, but does have added value as a kick returner. Harvin is 2 years younger, so I understand if he fetches a greater haul, but let's not pretend that their productivity on the field isn't very, very similar. Stevie is worth far more than a 5th round pick. EDIT: I realized after reading it that this post may have come off sounding adversarial...that was not my intent...just wanted to lay out the facts. Harvin has WAY more value as a return man. 3k yards in a little over 3 years is incredible. He basically ended the SB after halftime by returning a kick. A return man AND WR is way more valuable than a single WR. Seattle basically gave up a starter, a depth player and a training camp cut for a guy who starts at two positions. You could argue he has double the value of SJ13. And he's only 25. I agree that Stevie is worth more than a 5th but I wouldn't go higher than a 2nd or a 3rd + 6th. Edited April 24, 2014 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 (edited) You're right that we're probably not trading him. As for what he's worth, again I'll make the Percy Harvin comparison. Yes, I know, Stevie's not Harvin; they are different players. However, compare their production over the course of their careers, and you'll notice is very, very similar. http://espn.go.com/n...8/steve-johnson http://espn.go.com/n...69/percy-harvin Harvin netted 1st, 4th, and 7th round picks in a trade last year...I'm not saying Stevie is worth that much, as he is a different player, but let's not confuse the issue here: they've both been starters for 4 years, and in that time, Stevie has more catches, more yards, a higher yard-per-reception average, more receiving TDs (Harvin has 1 more total TD thanks to rushing TDs and KRs), and fewer fumbles. Harvin holds a slight (and I mean slight) edge in yards from scrimmage, but does have added value as a kick returner. Harvin is 2 years younger, so I understand if he fetches a greater haul, but let's not pretend that their productivity on the field isn't very, very similar. Stevie is worth far more than a 5th round pick. EDIT: I realized after reading it that this post may have come off sounding adversarial...that was not my intent...just wanted to lay out the facts. Good post, but the thing about Harvin has always been the huge potential -- athletic potential that Stevie just doesn't have. That is, you're not trading for past production, but for projected future production. Harvin is an incredible talent, and I think teams look at what he could do in the right system and if he's not hampered by injuries. Edited April 24, 2014 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Harvin has WAY more value as a return man. 3k yards in a little over 3 years is incredible. He basically ended the SB after halftime by returning a kick. A return man AND WR is way more valuable than a single WR. Seattle basically gave up a starter, a depth player and a training camp cut for a guy who starts at two positions. You could argue he has double the value of SJ13. And he's only 25. I agree that Stevie is worth more than a 5th but I wouldn't go higher than a 2nd or a 3rd + 6th. I realize all of that...your second statement is what I was getting at...I agree something like a 2nd or a 3rd + late-rounder makes sense. Good post, but the thing about Harvin has always been the huge potential -- athletic potential that Stevie just doesn't have. That is, you're not trading for past production, but for projected future production. Harvin is an incredible talent, and I think teams look at what he could do in the right system and if he's not hampered by injuries. See my response above...those are all fair points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purple haze Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 (edited) Again, if the objective is winning, you don't let your best Safety walk, and then draft a replacement for him in the 1st round, and you don't get rid of your best receiver, and draft a replacement for him in the 1st round. All you're doing is spinning the wheels. It makes absolutely no sense for the Bills to trade Stevie Johnson and then look to draft someone to replace him. I would hate to see Stevie go. However, if they drafted a WR it wouldn't be to replace him. Mike Williams would be the player they acquired to replace him, who they acquired for pennies on the dollar. If they drafted Watkins or Evans it is to be the man on the WR core. If Stevie did get dealt I believe it would be as part of a package to move up into the top three of the draft. Edited April 24, 2014 by purple haze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronc24 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Could he get us a 2nd? If Mike Evans is there we grab him and go with a evans, williams, woods goodwin combo. I love mike evans as a player but we better be able to upgrade another position with that 2nd rounder. Stevie put up 600 yards in 12 games with multiple qb's...what would happen if ej stays healthy the whole season? Nobody trades a 2nd for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 I would hate to see Stevie go. However, if they drafted a WR it wouldn't be to replace him. Mike Williams would be the player they acquired to replace him, who they acquired for pennies on the dollar. If they drafted Watkins or Evans it is to be the man on the WR core. If Stevie did get dealt I believe it would be as part of a package to move up into the top three of the draft. Counting on Williams is very, very risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Can we stop with the "Stevie is paid like a top WR" nonsense? Top WRs are getting $11-12+ million per year on average. Stevies deal averages 7.5 mil per year. Not in the same ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 CEOs and business elite are not one in the same...and as I said, the vast majority of the multi-millionaire business people with whom I deal are nothing like that. In fact, it's been my experience that they bend over backwards to help the people around them become successful. I'm sorry if your experiences have shown you differently. I do think that you're incorrect in painting the majority that way, and as a side note, I've read MANY bios (and autobios) of the Forbes 400...they don't speak to any of that. Anyway, we're well outside the bounds of the discussion topic at hand, so if you want to discuss further, feel free to PM...I'm gonna leave my comments at this... I'm talking about elite businessmen you are talking about rich people. Our sample populations are clearly different. So it makes sense we have disparate perceptions. Reeling it back in.... Stevie has been loyal to the team, not quite JP Losman loyal, but maybe author moats or George Wilson loyal. Let's see what that gets him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnwalter Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Guys.....Marrone has already told Stevie they arent trading him.... This is much adooo about nothing just like chip kelly told desean jackson that he'd be an eagle in 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyC81 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Yeah - and for whatever reason it was pretty clear that Manuel and Stevie didn't seem to have any chemistry. I love Stevie too, but I wouldn't be shocked by this sort of move. Does anyone know if Stevie was one of the players working out with EJ in California, being that he lives in SF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Does anyone know if Stevie was one of the players working out with EJ in California, being that he lives in SF? He worked out with him in Miami... not sure if he went to the Cali session too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie Nails Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 just like chip kelly told desean jackson that he'd be an eagle in 2014? 110% sure of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 just like chip kelly told desean jackson that he'd be an eagle in 2014? If Stevie was thought to be hanging out with the Bailey boys and blowing off team meetings, you might have a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Again, if the objective is winning, you don't let your best Safety walk, and then draft a replacement for him in the 1st round, and you don't get rid of your best receiver, and draft a replacement for him in the 1st round. All you're doing is spinning the wheels. It makes absolutely no sense for the Bills to trade Stevie Johnson and then look to draft someone to replace him. I agree with this. Also keep in mind rookie WR's are not as productive as those with 2 or more years. Yes, there are exceptions but pulling your most experienced receiver doesn't seem to help EJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oman128 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 (edited) Stevie had plenty of years to prove himself, aside from his game winning catch vs the Panthers last year his career has been unspectacular. Edited April 24, 2014 by oman128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snamsnoops Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 In Brazil the town talks about Stevie and Mike Williams ? That's pretty cool. Ditto....and hope Stevie crushes it for his new team. As long as the team isn't in the AFCE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optometric Insight Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Stevie had plenty of years to prove himself, aside from his game winning catch vs the Panthers last year his career has been unspectacular. Are wide open game winning catches the only impressive thing that a wide receiver can do? If that's the case, a lot of receivers in the league have been under-performing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lt. Dan's Revenge Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 If it somehow leads to us trading up for Watkins, then I'm all for it. I'm all for almost anything that lands Watkins. He is going to be SPECIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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