boyst Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The signing of Mark Anderson proves that the Bills are not following the philosophy detailed in this article. Anderson has had 2 decent years in his 8 year career, but the Bills still threw a bunch of money at him. Ironically, the signing stinks of Russ Brandon. But, at the end of the day, this article really doesn't say anything we already don't know. Draft well so you will be able to sign your stars. I do not want to put a fork in Anderson, yet. I think he is a Kelsay type player who will provide consistent rotational basis play. He is not outstandingly strong, nor fast. He plays smart football and might be the 3rd best DE on the team but his ability is strong enough to contribute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 (edited) This article seems to suggest that you pay for elite players. By most statistical measures, Andy Levitre is an elite player at his position. The Bills decided to go the middle class route, choosing to sign a guy for $4 million per year. That guy played for the Niners until very recently (through 2010), and they (Marathe et al.) decided he wasn't worth keeping. Excellent piece, btw. Way better than the crap we get from the guy covering the AFC East now, or from his Buffalo-based predecessor, for that matter. Edited March 20, 2013 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 How do you explain the Bills payroll being near the top of the league? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Do you think the Bills would do that deal again this year? I wonder... Yes. and If you think they wouldnt your either crazy, high or just plain stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benderbender Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 How do you explain the Bills payroll being near the top of the league? At least we're near the top of the league in something other than years without a playoff appearance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 (edited) There's a problem with this approach, as it relates to the Bills. The Bills "Analytics" department is a facade. It's a myth propagated by Brandon and the organizational higher-ups to shield the fans (and media) from the fact that they are unwilling to spend top-dollar on this team. By spreading the myth of analytics, or "Moneyball", they are convincing fans that they are taking a "calculated" approach to configuring their roster, and that spending money is not necessarily the sound avenue to take. In truth, if you were to go into the offices at One Bills Drive, and search for the "Analytics" department, you'd probably find an old storage closet with the placard "Analytics Department" on the door. Unfortunately, all you would find inside is a mop and bucket, a broom, and a pair of Zubaz pants once owned by Jeff Wright. The unfortunate truth is simple: nothing changes until the Bills have a new owner. NOTHING! Brandon may be the "new" CEO; but as Roger Daltrey once wailed, "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss!" Thank you for taking the time off from your work at One Bills Drive to give us an objective, behind-the-scenes look at the machinations of our favorite football team. The fact that they hire people like you certainly explains a great deal. The signing of Mark Anderson proves that the Bills are not following the philosophy detailed in this article. Anderson has had 2 decent years in his 8 year career, but the Bills still threw a bunch of money at him. Ironically, the signing stinks of Russ Brandon. The first time the word "analytics" was ever mentioned in the same sentence as "the Buffalo Bills was two months ago, 10 months AFTER Mark Anderson was signed. I'm guessing you knew this. The question then becomes why you would use the Mark Anderson signing as evidence that the Bills don't now employ analytics. Edited March 20, 2013 by San Jose Bills Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLynchTrain Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 No, the highest paid free agent is never worth the money. Highest paid or best free agent in a class? I would argue that it really is a case by case basis on players. These GMs argued that its better to pay your best players big money that to try and split up the same money between middle class players. So I'd imagine this assertion would also hold true on some high-priced Free Agents. The problem is very rarely do the best Free Agents at positions become available. I would argue that last year Mario Williams was in the top 5 of his position, a very rare case of such a player becoming a Free Agent. But as always, it comes down to what its worth. The Bills obviously thought he was worth top money. After next season, we'll really see if he's still worth that top money. After having "only" a 12 mil cap hit this year, Spotrac says Mario's cap hit will jump to 18 mil, and then 19 mil in 2015 and 2016. In my opinion, unless Mario has a monster 15 sack season, he's gone next March 1st. Sadly, I'd be willing to wager this will be the last year on his contract. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/mario-williams/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Highest paid or best free agent in a class? I would argue that it really is a case by case basis on players. These GMs argued that its better to pay your best players big money that to try and split up the same money between middle class players. So I'd imagine this assertion would also hold true on some high-priced Free Agents. The problem is very rarely do the best Free Agents at positions become available. I would argue that last year Mario Williams was in the top 5 of his position, a very rare case of such a player becoming a Free Agent. But as always, it comes down to what its worth. The Bills obviously thought he was worth top money. After next season, we'll really see if he's still worth that top money. After having "only" a 12 mil cap hit this year, Spotrac says Mario's cap hit will jump to 18 mil, and then 19 mil in 2015 and 2016. In my opinion, unless Mario has a monster 15 sack season, he's gone next March 1st. Sadly, I'd be willing to wager this will be the last year on his contract. http://www.spotrac.c...mario-williams/ I said highest paid. 'Best' is far too objective. Mario had a good season once he found his footing. However, I'm not sure it was a 9.8 Million dollar season. I'm also skeptical that this season will be a 12.4 million dollar the nest season. I'll guaranteee the season after that will not be worth 18 million. I don't think signing the 'celebrated' free agents for the top dollar deals is a good way to have success. I'd be interested if you have some examples of top paid free agents performing at the top of their position after being paid at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Doug Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 (edited) Thank you for taking the time off from your work at One Bills Drive to give us an objective, behind-the-scenes look at the machinations of our favorite football team. The fact that they hire people like you certainly explains a great deal. The first time the word "analytics" was ever mentioned in the same sentence as "the Buffalo Bills was two months ago, 10 months AFTER Mark Anderson was signed. I'm guessing you knew this. The question then becomes why you would use the Mark Anderson signing as evidence that the Bills don't now employ analytics. The question really is why the Bills would now be employing "analytics", but not before. We are not talking about a 3-5 year old signing here. It happened less than a year ago. Do you really think the Bills whole personnel strategy changed based on a press conference in that happened about 2 months ago, especially when there were no changes in the front office personnel? And if Nix/Whaley/Brandon woke up one day and did decide to institute an "analytics department" sometime prior to the January press conference, I highly doubt we are see the benefits of it so soon. If we are, I guess we really can't call it a "department", but rather a changing opinion. Edited March 20, 2013 by kas23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Does anyone think that the analytics thing might be something they are doing starting THIS YEAR? Your right the Mark Anderson thing does not follow it.....because he is weak against the run but def gives you pass rush when healthy. I am not going to defend the organization just yet like I have in years past.....Nix has pretty much screwed this up with the exception of finding linemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLynchTrain Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 I said highest paid. 'Best' is far too objective. Mario had a good season once he found his footing. However, I'm not sure it was a 9.8 Million dollar season. I'm also skeptical that this season will be a 12.4 million dollar the nest season. I'll guaranteee the season after that will not be worth 18 million. I don't think signing the 'celebrated' free agents for the top dollar deals is a good way to have success. I'd be interested if you have some examples of top paid free agents performing at the top of their position after being paid at the top. Vincent Jackson had an elite year after being paid top dollar. I think he's a player that's worth it, even with the legal mess he left in SD. On the flip side, with Tampa Bay, the jury's still out on Carl Nicks (played well when healthy but injured half the season), and they bombed on Eric Wright. At least with Carl Nicks, Tampa Bay paid for a guy that had proven he's an All Pro (2010, 2011) - Eric Wright was the wrong type of player to target - he hadn't proven anything yet and was paid only on potential. I'd argue Julius Peppers, Steve Hutchinson, Charles Woodson, and Justin Smith (didn't become highest paid, but still got around 20 mil guar. a few years back) were all elite players that were arguably the best or one of the best at their position, got paid for it, and seemed to work out beneficially for both the team and player. Throw in Manning and Brees while you're at it, but I understand if you'd want to exclude them under the fact that QBs are a separate animal. The most elite of elite players usually never make it to free agency, but if they do, I think its worth going after them and paying top dollar, on a case by case basis. After reading the Sando article and going through this exercise here, as long as they have proven that they are at the top of their game and still have the potential to be game changers, I believe its a solid bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Do you think the Bills would do that deal again this year? I wonder... I think the Bills FO really wanted off the "three year coaching carousel" and asked the coaches "what do you need to build a contending D this year?" I think Anderson, Williams, and the draft class (Gilmore, Bradham) were signed in response. When the result was a D that was record-setting worse, the coaching carousel turned again and the organizational mood turned back to frugality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The question really is why the Bills would now be employing "analytics", but not before. We are not talking about a 3-5 year old signing here. It happened less than a year ago. Do you really think the Bills whole personnel strategy changed based on a press conference in that happened about 2 months ago, especially when there were no changes in the front office personnel? And if Nix/Whaley/Brandon woke up one day and did decide to institute an "analytics department" sometime prior to the January press conference, I highly doubt we are see the benefits of it so soon. If we are, I guess we really can't call it a "department", but rather a changing opinion. Does anyone think that the analytics thing might be something they are doing starting THIS YEAR? Disagree with Kas, agree with John. We never heard anything about analytics until a few months ago. The Bills publicly stated at that time that they would form (future tense) an analytics department and "layer it over their personnel evaluation process." Why would anyone even think that they were secretly using it before? To think that the Bills were surreptitiously using analytics is a bizarro conspiracy theory to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Hopefully we do better hiring analytics department employees than scouts, gms, coaches, players, marketing people, etc..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shamrock Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 My bad, thought ir read diabetics. Wondered where Tom Cruise & John Travolta got their Bills creed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 My bad, thought ir read diabetics. Wondered where Tom Cruise & John Travolta got their Bills creed though. That's dianetics. Diabetics is a method that's used to teach pre-school children how to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best Player Available Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The question really is why the Bills would now be employing "analytics", but not before. We are not talking about a 3-5 year old signing here. It happened less than a year ago. Do you really think the Bills whole personnel strategy changed based on a press conference in that happened about 2 months ago, especially when there were no changes in the front office personnel? And if Nix/Whaley/Brandon woke up one day and did decide to institute an "analytics department" sometime prior to the January press conference, I highly doubt we are see the benefits of it so soon. If we are, I guess we really can't call it a "department", but rather a changing opinion. So true. Is there an Organizational chart, showing a "analytics dept"? If so who is the leader of that dept? How big is it?It's the buzzword of the offseason because most here have seen moneyball, and while different in basic concepts NFL analytics have been around with some teams,quite a bit longer than 2 months( if it even exists with the Bills). Just more of Brandon smoke blowing in his 5 minute BS video with zero press there on 1/1/13. Show Org chart Russ! Or it doesn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Brandon is very adept at selling this franchise to the fans. He realizes it'll take more to sell it to a new HC, which he apparently did with Marrone. How much analytics is driving decision making is clearly debatable at this point because it's so early. It's good to have more data, but who is analyzing it right now is highly questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 (edited) Does anyone think that the analytics thing might be something they are doing starting THIS YEAR?..... But what exactly is the analytics thing? So true. Is there an Organizational chart, showing a "analytics dept"? If so who is the leader of that dept? How big is it? It's the buzzword of the offseason because most here have seen moneyball, and while different in basic concepts NFL analytics have been around with some teams,quite a bit longer than 2 months( if it even exists with the Bills). Just more of Brandon smoke blowing in his 5 minute BS video with zero press there on 1/1/13. Show Org chart Russ! Or it doesn't exist. Buzzword indeed. I would say that NFL analytics has been around since the inception of the salary cap. Every NFL team has needed to be able to figure how to put together a team.....and future years teams.....while staying under the cap. How much money to justify paying top players, what players are "value for money", what players can be cut to improve the cap situation.....without being too detrimental to team play etc, etc. Every team in the NFL has been doing "moneyball" type analytics for years......only now they have a name for it. Mind you......caponomics worked well as a name for many years. Edited March 21, 2013 by Dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Okay. So for the record kas, BPA, BillsVet and Dibs all think Brandon was lying when he mentioned that the Bills were going to establish an analytics department? I'm confused here. It seems that some are suggesting that the Bills have been using analytics while others are suggesting that the Bills never have and never will. Was Nix also lying when he said "You know, obviously, I'm old-school in more ways than one," Nix said, laughing. "It'll be something I'll have to get used to because I go a lot on feel and what I see." Was Nix lying just to cover Brandon? This is kind of a crazy discussion so I'll leave it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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