MDH Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's tough to rate some of these guys in just those categories. Just starting on a team that does well doesn't make a guy "above average." I guarantee you if Alex Smith were drafted by the Bills he'd be sitting on that "bust" list. A good team around him has helped him come around to what I'd call average. It's the same place I'd put Pennington. I'd say a guy like D Carr would be "below average" if he were drafted in the 20s but as the #1 overall pick - bust. Also, I think you're trying to rate guys too early. I wouldn't include anybody from the last two drafts on that list just yet as you're just guessing particularly in regards to this year's class. Anyway, my point is that this is a difficult exercise to get consensus on but I appreciate the time and effort you put into this and it's a good topic for discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markgbe Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 (edited) yeah i think there are a few in above average who could be just 'average' i'm not sure yet about some of the below averages.... S Bradford needs a supporting cast still IMO and gabbert, tannehill, weeden, too early to tell. Edited October 26, 2012 by markgbe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I have always been finding ways NOT to draft a QB in the 1st in the past......that time is done but please for the love of christ.....if we are going to really attempt to draft a franchise QB........make sure he has a GOOD ARM Give me a QB that can make all the throws.....not some "well if we fix his mechanics he will become better" guy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSpeed Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Trade back into the first round and draft 2 QB's next year to increase our chances! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maddog69 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well, I know for a fact that you have a 0% chance of getting a good QB if you never draft one. We need a franchise QB. We should do whatever we need to in order to get one of the top QB prospects in this years' draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i did a little research too...... of the last 20 super bowl winning QB's.....90% were FRANCHISE QB's you just keep drafting or aquiring QB's via trades & free agency until you hit on one..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I did some research a few months back and found that since 1995 when Kelly retired, the Bill's have tried 9 different starting QB's, that may sound like alot, however the average for all teams was 6.7. At the bootm you had Indy NE, and Green Bay with two , but there were many teams who had as many as ten. There were a number of teams with ten that you'd consider well run clubs, so having a good or bad front office has little to do with finding that guy. (you could view that as a good point in Buffalos future quest) I don't have the numbers in front of me right now, but I recall Baltimore had a fairly high number of QB's and many people would consider Ozzie Newsome to be one of the better GM's Another one up there were the Giants until they got Eli. I'm certain that's a big reason why the Bill's stuck with Fitz, behind closed doors did they ever think he'd be on the great list, no probably not, maybe were hoping he'd be in the above average list. But they stuck with him as they knew the odds of finding a better alternative were not very high. As far as the data goes, I probably would have created a fifth catagory called potentially higher than average and would have thrown RG III, Luck, & Tannehill in there. More than likely out of the what was is eight rookie or second year starters this year, two may be considered great in five years,, two will likely be out of football, and the rest will be on their second or third team, sometimes doing better for awhile (see Fitz) then regressing again once other teams figure out how they fit with the new teams offense and how you now stop him again. It all goes back to my overall concern, there are 32 teams in the league and around 10 really goot QB's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSpeed Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i did a little research too...... of the last 20 super bowl winning QB's.....90% were FRANCHISE QB's you just keep drafting or aquiring QB's via trades & free agency until you hit on one..... And even after you find one you should keep looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sounds like a reasonable analysis, although I think you'll see a bit of disagreement with your subjective categorizations. I would have liked to see a fifth category, "Average", since there are a number of guys you put in "Above Average" that I think are generous, such as Culpepper, Pennington, Locker, and Ponder. But yeah, a 50% hit rate isn't that bad, all things considered. Part of it also has to do with guys who were drafted in the first round who probably shouldn't have been (Losman, Tebow, etc). While I agree there should be another category for average, I disagree that culpepper and Pennington shouldn't be above average. Penningtong was a very under rated QB and Culpepper won an MVP and was considered great until he blew his knee out and lost the versatility that made him great. So I think both belong in the above average QB category. Same for Alex Smith as someone else has pointed out he doesn't belong there because his team is great and I disagree. His team is essentially the same team before he really stepped it up. The biggest difference was a new coach who knew how to develop him finally and help him turn his career around. I mean, what if his coach had been Harbaugh since his rookie season instead a rotating carousel of head coaches and OCs just about every year prior to Harbaugh? Smith is definitely an above average QB in the NFL right now and no way to know how much the terrible coaching and constant changing OCs held him back unless he goes to another team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I just looked at the last twenty winners and it was made up of twelve unique teams, so if you keep drafting and changing guys because the last guy didn't work out, you'll never get anywhere. So it's a great idea if you're one of the twelve teams who won, but not so good for the other twenty in my opinion. If you look at it, that's the road the Bill's have taken actually, see my post above, nine different QB's, so how's that worked out? i did a little research too...... of the last 20 super bowl winning QB's.....90% were FRANCHISE QB's you just keep drafting or aquiring QB's via trades & free agency until you hit on one..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boludo Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I also did some research, and here are the results of my studies: Percentage of Demographic that Highly Values an Elite Quarterback Winning NFL Franchises - 100% Average NFL Fans - 90% Buffalo Bills Fans - 50% Bills Management - 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Let's see how he does for a couple of years before calling him great. So far this year, isn't looking nearly as good as last season. Same for Alex Smith as someone else has pointed out he doesn't belong there because his team is great and I disagree. His team is essentially the same team before he really stepped it up. Totally not true, just like the majority of the teams in the league, they haven't had any luck in finding one. They've tried many different guys, none have worked out, just like many other teams, It has nothing to do wit hBill's management being worse than any other teams. I also did some research, and here are the results of my studies: Percentage of Demographic that Highly Values an Elite Quarterback Winning NFL Franchises - 100% Average NFL Fans - 90% Buffalo Bills Fans - 50% Bills Management - 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Totally not true, just like the majority of the teams in the league, they haven't had any luck in finding one. They've tried many different guys, none have worked out, just like many other teams, It has nothing to do wit hBill's management being worse than any other teams. Going with other teams' castoffs isn't what I'd call trying. They haven't selected a QB outside of a 7th rounder in 3 seasons and expect the position to get better picking up free agents? How many decent QB's come up on the UFA market anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What is the winning percentage of teams that draft a QB in the First round to the winning percentage of teams that have never drafted a QB with their first pick in the first round in the history of their ****ty franchise because they constantly feed **** sandwiches to their fans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrhody Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hear what you guys are saying about there being an average category.. although I think you pull about an equal number of guys from both the above average pool and the below average pool so that it wouldn't really make a difference. I made sure I distributed the recent rookies pretty evenly too so I wasn't too optimistic on all of them. If you get a "great" QB 16% of the time, I would almost spend every first round pick on a QB until I was sure I had one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReturnoftheBuffaloBeast23 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 (edited) I decided to do a little research and look at every QB drafted in the first round over the last 15 years (43 in total). I broke them into four categories in order to evaluate them (Great, Above Average, Below Average, Bust). You can check out how I ranked them below. I used my best guess on the guys that are less than 3 years out but I tried to do it as objectively as possible. This is what I came up with overall: 16.3% great 30.2% above average 30.2% below average 23.3% bust If you look at just QBs drafted in the top 10 (26 in total): 19.2% great 30.8% above average 26.9% below average 23.1% bust So essentially it looks like you have pretty much exactly a 50% chance of getting something good out of drafting a QB in the top 10. Surprisingly, the odds dont drop off too much for the entire first round (46.5%). The Bills are 0/1 in the past 15 years on drafting guys in the first round, they really haven't taken too many chances. Odds are the next one will work out, right? The potential first round picks in this years draft are: M Barkely (USC) G Smith (WV) T Wilson (ARK) L Jones (OU) Gotta get one of the first 2 in my option.. here's to hoping we do. Here's my research: QBs Drafted 1998 - P Manning (1), R Leaf (2) 1999 - T Couch (1), D McNabb (2), Ak Smith (3), D Culpepper (11), C McNown (12) 2000 - C Pennington (18) 2001 - M Vick (1) 2002 - D Carr (1), J Harrington (3), P Ramsey (32) 2003 - C Palmer (1), B Leftwich (7), K Boller (19) , R Grossman (22) 2004 - E Manning (1), P Rivers (4), B Roethlisberger (11), JP Losman (22) 2005 - A Smith (1), A Rodgers (24), J Campbell (25) 2006 - V Young (3), M Leinart (10), J Cutler (11) 2007 - J Russell (1), B Quinn (22) 2008 - M Ryan (3), J Flacco (18) 2009 - M Stafford (1), M Sanchez (5), J Freeman (17) 2010 - S Bradford (1), T Tebow (25) 2011 - C Newton (1), J Locker (8), B Gabbert (10), C Ponder (12) 2012 - A Luck (1), R Griffin (2), R Tannehill (8), B Weeden (22) Great (7) P Manning, E Manning, P Rivers, B Roethlisberger, A Rodgers, M Ryan, A Luck Above Average (13) D McNabb, D Culpepper, C Pennington, M Vick, C Palmer, A Smith, J Cutler, J Flacco, M Stafford, C Newton, J Locker, C Ponder, R Griffin Below Average (13) D Carr, B Leftwich, R Grossman, J Campbell, V Young, B Quinn, M Sanchez, J Freeman, S Bradford, T Tebow, B Gabbert, R Tannehill, B Weeden Bust (10) R Leaf, T Couch, Ak Smith, C McNown, J Harrington, P Ramsey, K Boller, JP Losman, M Leinart, J Russell I agree with the majority of this but Bradford is a above average QB the team around him is terrible, I wish we had him. But like other posters said this means nothing unless you try and we are scared to try to draft a QB. I always get pi**ed by the 2004 draft we were so close but yet so far. If we would have lost one game we coulda had Rapethlisberger and maybe a super bowl. But the luck of the Bills gave us the incompetent JP Loserman. *shrugs*.. The only one i'd draft is Geno and im reluctant on him. USC qbs never fair well I have no idea who T.Wilson is and Laudry Jones reminds me of Colt McCoy. Edited October 26, 2012 by ReturnoftheBuffaloBeast23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Great (7) P Manning, E Manning, P Rivers, B Roethlisberger, A Rodgers, M Ryan, A Luck Above Average (13) D McNabb, D Culpepper, C Pennington, M Vick, C Palmer, A Smith, J Cutler, J Flacco, M Stafford, C Newton, J Locker, C Ponder, R Griffin Below Average (13) D Carr, B Leftwich, R Grossman, J Campbell, V Young, B Quinn, M Sanchez, J Freeman, S Bradford, T Tebow, B Gabbert, R Tannehill, B Weeden Bust (10) R Leaf, T Couch, Ak Smith, C McNown, J Harrington, P Ramsey, K Boller, JP Losman, M Leinart, J Russell Someone else posted this same info last year. Anyway, Luck is already "great"?? Wow! Poor RG3--already only "above average"! And Ryan, who has a grand total of zero playoff games is "great" while McNabb, who won 10 (playing in a competitive division) and played in 5 NFCC games and a SB is "above average"? ok. And didn't "above average" Ponder and his Vikes just get their dicks handed to them, at home, by "below average" Freeman and the Bucs last nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well, I know for a fact that you have a 0% chance of getting a good QB if you never draft one. We need a franchise QB. We should do whatever we need to in order to get one of the top QB prospects in this years' draft. The Saints would beg to differ. That's one hell of an extreme case though, especially since it does look like the league definitely locks up these elite QBs well ahead of time. And speaking of Brees, there's another level of subjectivity of this type of look. Being the first pick of the 2nd round, he may as well have been a first rounder. In fact, he went 32nd overall in 2001 and Ramsey went 32nd overall the next year. Ramsey winds up being counted here since Houston was added to the league that year bumping up the number of teams to 32. It's obviously subjective, but I'd be curious to see how many QBs went in the top 5 or 10 picks of the second round over that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Grid Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 One thing that stands out in a good way is that the success rate seems to be improving. The past two years we've seen 3 arguably guaranteed franchise QBs taken (Cam, Luck, RG3) Two very possible franchise QBs (Ponder, Tannehill) and Two potentially serviceable QBs (Weeden and Gabbert). I know Gabbert had a horrible first year, but this year he has showed a lot more promise. In all I don't think any of the teams, save the Browns, regret their first round QB picks over the past 2 years....and part of the Browns regret is that they will likely be drafting high enough this year to grab a true franchise QB. That doesn't mean you should always take a QB in the first round, but if it is a guy that has a consensus first round grade there seems to be some strong indicators that his selection will be a great choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I decided to do a little research and look at every QB drafted in the first round over the last 15 years (43 in total). I broke them into four categories in order to evaluate them (Great, Above Average, Below Average, Bust). You can check out how I ranked them below. I used my best guess on the guys that are less than 3 years out but I tried to do it as objectively as possible. This is what I came up with overall: 16.3% great 30.2% above average 30.2% below average 23.3% bust If you look at just QBs drafted in the top 10 (26 in total): 19.2% great 30.8% above average 26.9% below average 23.1% bust So essentially it looks like you have pretty much exactly a 50% chance of getting something good out of drafting a QB in the top 10. Surprisingly, the odds dont drop off too much for the entire first round (46.5%). The Bills are 0/1 in the past 15 years on drafting guys in the first round, they really haven't taken too many chances. Odds are the next one will work out, right? The potential first round picks in this years draft are: M Barkely (USC) G Smith (WV) T Wilson (ARK) L Jones (OU) Gotta get one of the first 2 in my option.. here's to hoping we do. Here's my research: QBs Drafted 1998 - P Manning (1), R Leaf (2) 1999 - T Couch (1), D McNabb (2), Ak Smith (3), D Culpepper (11), C McNown (12) 2000 - C Pennington (18) 2001 - M Vick (1) 2002 - D Carr (1), J Harrington (3), P Ramsey (32) 2003 - C Palmer (1), B Leftwich (7), K Boller (19) , R Grossman (22) 2004 - E Manning (1), P Rivers (4), B Roethlisberger (11), JP Losman (22) 2005 - A Smith (1), A Rodgers (24), J Campbell (25) 2006 - V Young (3), M Leinart (10), J Cutler (11) 2007 - J Russell (1), B Quinn (22) 2008 - M Ryan (3), J Flacco (18) 2009 - M Stafford (1), M Sanchez (5), J Freeman (17) 2010 - S Bradford (1), T Tebow (25) 2011 - C Newton (1), J Locker (8), B Gabbert (10), C Ponder (12) 2012 - A Luck (1), R Griffin (2), R Tannehill (8), B Weeden (22) Great (7) P Manning, E Manning, P Rivers, B Roethlisberger, A Rodgers, M Ryan, A Luck Above Average (13) D McNabb, D Culpepper, C Pennington, M Vick, C Palmer, A Smith, J Cutler, J Flacco, M Stafford, C Newton, J Locker, C Ponder, R Griffin Below Average (13) D Carr, B Leftwich, R Grossman, J Campbell, V Young, B Quinn, M Sanchez, J Freeman, S Bradford, T Tebow, B Gabbert, R Tannehill, B Weeden Bust (10) R Leaf, T Couch, Ak Smith, C McNown, J Harrington, P Ramsey, K Boller, JP Losman, M Leinart, J Russell It's too soon to put any rookie in any category yet and Cam isn't above average right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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