Football outsiders assessment of Bills needs

[buffaloaggie]

Buffalo Bills: Defensive end

The flirtation with the 3-4 defense for Buffalo lasted barely a year, just long enough to get defensive coordinator George Edwards fired, and now the team will turn to new hire Dave Wannstadt to undo the experiment and bring back a base 4-3. The move makes perfect sense, as it allows the Bills to line up their two best players, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, side-by-side. That should give them the freedom to penetrate and make plays rather than requiring them to hold their ground and soak up blockers as they would in a 3-4. It's a move that should help stiffen up the interior run defense, which gave up 4.52 yards per carry on runs between the guards last year. It probably won't do much to generate more pass rush, however, as it's unreasonable to ask for Dareus to improve much upon his rookie total of 5.5 sacks.

 

An elite pass-rushing defensive end would be a key addition for Buffalo. The Bills have youngsters like Alex Carrington and veterans such as Chris Kelsay and Dwan Edwards, but none of them can be expected to suddenly morph into a double-digit sack threat. There is little doubt that the team will make every effort to address the position, but it is unlikely to land a premiere talent like Mario Williams in free agency, so improvement may have to come from the draft.

 

The other major priority is to re-sign Steve Johnson, who established himself as a legitimate No. 1 receiver in his first year as a starter. The team will want to add another receiver regardless, as neither David Nelson nor Donald Jones showed much playmaking ability, but receiver would turn into a gaping hole should Johnson decide to skip town.

[RevWarRifleman]

Buffalo Bills: Defensive end

The flirtation with the 3-4 defense for Buffalo lasted barely a year, just long enough to get defensive coordinator George Edwards fired, and now the team will turn to new hire Dave Wannstadt to undo the experiment and bring back a base 4-3. The move makes perfect sense, as it allows the Bills to line up their two best players, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, side-by-side. That should give them the freedom to penetrate and make plays rather than requiring them to hold their ground and soak up blockers as they would in a 3-4. It's a move that should help stiffen up the interior run defense, which gave up 4.52 yards per carry on runs between the guards last year. It probably won't do much to generate more pass rush, however, as it's unreasonable to ask for Dareus to improve much upon his rookie total of 5.5 sacks.

 

An elite pass-rushing defensive end would be a key addition for Buffalo. The Bills have youngsters like Alex Carrington and veterans such as Chris Kelsay and Dwan Edwards, but none of them can be expected to suddenly morph into a double-digit sack threat. There is little doubt that the team will make every effort to address the position, but it is unlikely to land a premiere talent like Mario Williams in free agency, so improvement may have to come from the draft.

 

The other major priority is to re-sign Steve Johnson, who established himself as a legitimate No. 1 receiver in his first year as a starter. The team will want to add another receiver regardless, as neither David Nelson nor Donald Jones showed much playmaking ability, but receiver would turn into a gaping hole should Johnson decide to skip town.

 

Yeh, maybe that's why they're the 'Outsiders'.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Lasted barely a year? They were implementing it over two seasons. They obviously stepped back once they shifted more to 4-3 looks in mid-season, but 3-4 came in with Gailey. These guys are definitely off the mark.

[atlbillsfan1975]

If Williams is healthy and Dareus improves on his stellar rookie season, then the middle of the line will be great. These two guys also will be able to get in QB's faces from up the gut. That is big...and the number one way to beat the best QB in our division.

 

Now add the pass rusher from the edge, and suddenly the entire D looks a lot better. If you can stop the run and get to the qb, you got a winning D. Corners are important... but no where near as important as Dline.

[cantankerous]

Lasted barely a year? They were implementing it over two seasons. They obviously stepped back once they shifted more to 4-3 looks in mid-season, but 3-4 came in with Gailey. These guys are definitely off the mark.

 

So is the Bills entire organization.

[RuntheDamnBall]

So is the Bills entire organization.

ZING.

[PDaDdy]

Yeh, maybe that's why they're the 'Outsiders'.

 

Because they have an objective view Something that people too close to things sometimes lose.

[Maddog69]

other than nit picking the length of time we played the 3-4 and calling Wanny a new hire (which technically he is at the DC position), what can you disagree with? This assessment seems to be spot on.

[1B4IDie]

other than nit picking the length of time we played the 3-4 and calling Wanny a new hire (which technically he is at the DC position), what can you disagree with? This assessment seems to be spot on.

 

Um Stevie Johnson started two years in a row.

David Nelson has playmaking ability.

Wanny isn't a new hire.

 

They switched to the 3-4 two seasons ago.

 

Yeah besides that spot on.

Edited February 14, 2012 by Why So Serious?

[FLFan]

Um Stevie Johnson started two years in a row.

David Nelson has playmaking ability.

Wanny isn't a new hire.

 

They switched to the 4-3 two years ago.

 

Yeah besides that spot on.

Nelson's playmaking ability is strictly limited to schemes designed to create a mismatch. When the Bills had a full compliment on offense, the first part of the season, Nelson was the 4 th receiver, often lined up in a tight end or H-back position, or split out slightly from tackle, but generally the 4th WR on the field. In this situation, Nelson was able to exploit mismatches and confusion in coverage very effectively. The bills were rolling on offense then, and Nelson was a star. Once the injuries began to pile up (Parrish, Jones, LT, Woods, Jackson) the Bills suddenly had very limited offensive threats, and much poorer OL play. Nelson was expected to play more of an every down role in Gailey''s offense as a slot receiver, but with other offensive threats increasingly non-existent, and the OL struggling, Nelson became a non-factor over the second half of the season. I love the guy, but he is no "threat" on his own. He can, and has been, very effective as an overload to the defense, but will not be productive as a starter at WR in any of the top 3 slots. I think this was pretty well proven last year.

[OldTimer1960]

Nelson's playmaking ability is strictly limited to schemes designed to create a mismatch. When the Bills had a full compliment on offense, the first part of the season, Nelson was the 4 th receiver, often lined up in a tight end or H-back position, or split out slightly from tackle, but generally the 4th WR on the field. In this situation, Nelson was able to exploit mismatches and confusion in coverage very effectively. The bills were rolling on offense then, and Nelson was a star. Once the injuries began to pile up (Parrish, Jones, LT, Woods, Jackson) the Bills suddenly had very limited offensive threats, and much poorer OL play. Nelson was expected to play more of an every down role in Gailey''s offense as a slot receiver, but with other offensive threats increasingly non-existent, and the OL struggling, Nelson became a non-factor over the second half of the season. I love the guy, but he is no "threat" on his own. He can, and has been, very effective as an overload to the defense, but will not be productive as a starter at WR in any of the top 3 slots. I think this was pretty well proven last year.

 

I disagree - a little. I think Nelson can be a good+ #3 WR - IF the OL is in tact and there is a legitimate #1 and #2 on the field also. Donald Jones and Roscoe Parrish are not #2

WRs. When TE Chandler was hurt along with several OL, then no Nelson wasn't a dominant get-open-on-his-own WR (I agree). However, with Johnson or another #1 WR and

and at least a good starting #2, a healthy decent TE and a healthy OL, I think Nelson is a good #3 WR.

Edited February 10, 2012 by OldTimer1960

[FrankReichComeback]

Why is it unreasonable to expect a rookie DE to improve from 5.5 sacks per game? That's ok, but for starting all 16 games it's not exactly "Bruce Smith numbers"

[snamsnoops]

other than nit picking the length of time we played the 3-4 and calling Wanny a new hire (which technically he is at the DC position), what can you disagree with? This assessment seems to be spot on.

I think Alex Carrington could turn out to be a pretty good player at DE. He is a pretty big boy 6-5 300+lbs. He put on some weight thinking it would help with the 34. If he lost some weight @ 24yrs old he could turn out to be a pretty good DE in the 43, or are they going to try and rotate him in the middle? I think he could turn in to a pretty good player. Obviously we have tried the 34 for 2 years now, Wanny has been on staff for 2 yrs, I think Jones and Nelson are pretty good for first year and being undrafted. The only thing he got right was that KW, & MD are pretty good!

[purple haze]

Nelson's playmaking ability is strictly limited to schemes designed to create a mismatch.

 

In truth that's all 98% players playmaking ability is limited to. Matchups. Outside the Barry Sanders of the world who are very rare.

[NoSaint]

Lasted barely a year? They were implementing it over two seasons. They obviously stepped back once they shifted more to 4-3 looks in mid-season, but 3-4 came in with Gailey. These guys are definitely off the mark.

We had a 34 coach but how long were we truly commited? If we totaled 16 games that had a majority 34 I'd be surprised.

[stony]

Why is it unreasonable to expect a rookie DE to improve from 5.5 sacks per game? That's ok, but for starting all 16 games it's not exactly "Bruce Smith numbers"

 

I don't see your point. They were alluding to the notion that if switched inside in the 4-3, topping 5.5 sacks will be difficult. It would. And as for "Bruce Smith numbers," totally different players.

[1B4IDie]

In truth that's all 98% players playmaking ability is limited to. Matchups. Outside the Barry Sanders of the world who are very rare.

Word.

 

Nelson has Size, Shiftiness, and strength. He can and does make plays. You can't cover him well with a CB or a LB. He has good hands.

He creates mismatches and then takes advantages of them.

 

Either way the Outsiders are waaaaaaayyyy outside on this one.

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

I don't see your point. They were alluding to the notion that if switched inside in the 4-3, topping 5.5 sacks will be difficult. It would. And as for "Bruce Smith numbers," totally different players.

For the record, Bruce had 6.5 sacks his rookie year. So technically Marcell had "Bruce Smith numbers", rookie for rookie. Just sayin'.

[uncle flap]

oh no! is "playmaker" going to be debated like "franchise qb" and "#1 receiver?"

[Best Player Available]

oh no! is "playmaker" going to be debated like "franchise qb" and "#1 receiver?"

Depends. Are you talking "mid-tier" or "clutch"?

[BillsVet]

Why is it unreasonable to expect a rookie DE to improve from 5.5 sacks per game? That's ok, but for starting all 16 games it's not exactly "Bruce Smith numbers"

 

Where does a 40 front get its pass rush from? DE's. And Buffalo doesn't have one proven to be a bonafide pass rusher with the only options on the roster being an aging Kelsay (a base end) and Carrington (another bigger base end). And whatever production from DT's is a bonus. Buffalo needs a 7 tech or 9 tech who rushes from the RDE spot. And anyone mentioning Shawne Merriman clearly is wishing upon a star. The guy is cooked and hasn't rushed with a hand in the ground in his entire NFL career.

 

FO may be off in a few small details, but their analysis is spot-on. Buffalo needs more pass rush help immediately, has no depth at WR where former UDFA's were counted on to provide the difference, and if Johnson leaves they have nothing proven. David Nelson averaged less than 11 yards per reception, and had 50 yards receiving in only 2 of the last 13 games. He is at best a third receiver.

[PDaDdy]

Um Stevie Johnson started two years in a row.

David Nelson has playmaking ability.

Wanny isn't a new hire.

 

They switched to the 4-3 two years ago.

 

Yeah besides that spot on.

 

1) SJ became the #1 WR this year and performs in the bottom 1/3 of all WRs.

 

2) David Nelson can catch a perfectly thrown ball when he is left open but can't make catches above his head or away from his body like the Giants, Packers, Patriots and Saints WRs can. I think he has potential but lets not fool ourselves into thinking he is a play maker already.

 

3) We did switch to the 3-4 not the 4-3 as you stated 2 years ago. Seems like we are all capable of making slight over sights and mistakes.

 

But ...yes...for the most part spot on.

 

Word.

 

Nelson has Size, Shiftiness, and strength. He can and does make plays. You can't cover him well with a CB or a LB. He has good hands.

He creates mismatches and then takes advantages of them.

 

Either way the Outsiders are waaaaaaayyyy outside on this one.

 

ROFLOL. Dude. Get real. Where is the PRODUCTION to go with those glowing words of praise? I have hopes for Nelson but to call him a "playmaker" that can't be covered well by a CB or LB is a big stretch for a 7th round draft pick right now.

 

For the record, Bruce had 6.5 sacks his rookie year. So technically Marcell had "Bruce Smith numbers", rookie for rookie. Just sayin'.

 

Dareus is NOT a Bruce Smith type guy. They are completely different players. Dareus killed it though as a rookie but as usual interior defensive lineman don't get the press. He was the teams leading sacker on a line the was pretty much devoid of talent. KW was hurt for the few games he did play and went on IR. Shawn "Goood Gamble" Merriman played all of about hand full of downs for us before going on IR leaving the rookie as the only concern along the defensive front.

 

Let's look at Dareus' numbers compared to Suh who is consider to be one of if not the best in the game.

 

Player__Tackles__Assists__Sacks

Suh_____26_______10_______4.0

Dareus__32_______11_______5.5

 

Dareus out played Suh and Suh has one HELL of a better supporting cast!

Edited February 10, 2012 by PDaDdy

[mountainwampus]

I think Nelson can be a good+ #3 WR

 

It seems that support for Nelson is higher than any other WR on this board. I like it. He always did his job over 2 seasons. I think he should be "married" to that #3/4 WR/H-back role for the next decade. Such an upgrade over Josh Reed, IMO.

[1B4IDie]

1) SJ became the #1 WR this year and performs in the bottom 1/3 of all WRs.

"#1" is fan speek. Stevie was a starter for 2 years. And if you want to look at numbers "#1" for two years.

 

2) David Nelson can catch a perfectly thrown ball when he is left open but can't make catches above his head or away from his body like the Giants, Packers, Patriots and Saints WRs can. I think he has potential but lets not fool ourselves into thinking he is a play maker already.

That's great that you have an opinion.

I can't remember a single Nelson catch where he didn't have a guy draped on him. I don't think your opinion is close to reality though.

 

3) We did switch to the 3-4 not the 4-3 as you stated 2 years ago. Seems like we are all capable of making slight over sights and mistakes.

 

Thanks I mistyped.

 

 

 

But ...yes...for the most part spot on.

 

 

 

ROFLOL. Dude. Get real. Where is the PRODUCTION to go with those glowing words of praise? I have hopes for Nelson but to call him a "playmaker" that can't be covered well by a CB or LB is a big stretch for a 7th round draft pick right now.

 

 

Well let's start that Nelson's production in 2011 is more than the player you claim was the "#1" in 2010. Is that a start?

 

 

Dareus is NOT a Bruce Smith type guy. They are completely different players. Dareus killed it though as a rookie but as usual interior defensive lineman don't get the press. He was the teams leading sacker on a line the was pretty much devoid of talent. KW was hurt for the few games he did play and went on IR. Shawn "Goood Gamble" Merriman played all of about hand full of downs for us before going on IR leaving the rookie as the only concern along the defensive front.

 

 

 

Let's look at Dareus' numbers compared to Suh who is consider to be one of if not the best in the game.

 

Player Tackles Assists Sacks

Suh 26 10 4.0

Dareus 32 11 5.5

 

Dareus out played Suh and Suh has one HELL of a better supporting cast!

 

There will never be another Bruce Smith. Bruce Smith played DE in a 3-4 and got number that more double any other career 3-4 De.

 

Dareus is not a DE in a 4-3 he is an interior lineman.

 

There is no comparison.

 

Dareus role when drafted today tomorrow and forever will never be to get sacks. He is not in a position to get double digit sacks. People just stop with the sack talk and Dareus. Sacks are a nice to have when it comes to 3-4 d-line or 4-3 interior D-line. It's generally not a designed play when they get sacks.

Edited February 10, 2012 by Why So Serious?

[PDaDdy]

"#1" is fan speek. Stevie was a starter for 2 years. And if you want to look at numbers "#1" for two years.

 

SJ our #1 as you put it ranked

2010 11th in yards and 7th in TDs (Pretty good when Lee Evans was drawing doubles every play)

2011 19th in yards and 21st in TDs (HUGE drop off without Lee Drawing all the attention)

 

That's great that you have an opinion.

I can't remember a single Nelson catch where he didn't have a guy draped on him. I don't think your opinion is close to reality though.

 

I think you need some Ginko because your memory appears to be fading! I'm glad you have an opinion you just happen to be completely and totally wrong about it.

 

Thanks I mistyped.

 

No big deal I do it all the time.

 

 

Well let's start that Nelson's production in 2011 is more than the player you claim was the "#1" in 2010. Is that a start?

 

It's a start. An INCREDIBLY poor one but a start. How about first you don't compare him to a guy that was injured all year and playing on a different team. THEN how about you compare him against...oh...say...all of the other WRs in the NFL OK?...Thanks! Again, where is the production???? Making some cheap shot lame comparison to an injured Lee Evans has no value.

 

 

 

There will never be another Bruce Smith. Bruce Smith played DE in a 3-4 and got number that more double any other career 3-4 De.

 

Dareus is not a DE in a 4-3 he is an interior lineman.

 

There is no comparison.

 

Dareus role when drafted today tomorrow and forever will never be to get sacks. He is not in a position to get double digit sacks. People just stop with the sack talk and Dareus. Sacks are a nice to have when it comes to 3-4 d-line or 4-3 interior D-line. It's generally not a designed play when they get sacks.

 

Never said that Dareus was drafted to be a Bruce Smith. In fact I said they are nothing alike. I did compare him to Suh who was a guy that I hoped Dareus would have the same impact as and role. He exceeded Suh's numbers this year which was a big deal to me.

Edited February 10, 2012 by PDaDdy

[1B4IDie]

SJ our #1 as you put it ranked

2010 11th in yards and 7th in TDs (Pretty good when Lee Evans was drawing doubles every play)

2011 19th in yards and 21st in TDs (HUGE drop off without Lee Drawing all the attention)

What does this have to do with SJ13 being a starter for 2 years. Which outsiders said he wasn't.

 

BTW Nice move not putting the empirical data out there:

2011 Buffalo Bills 16 16 76 1,004 13.2 55 7

2010 Buffalo Bills 16 13 82 1,073 13.1 45 10

 

and twisting to mean something else.

Numbers look mostly the same to me.

 

 

I think you need some Ginko because your memory appears to be fading! I'm glad you have an opinion you just happen to be completely and totally wrong about it.

 

 

 

No big deal I do it all the time.

 

 

 

 

It's a start. An INCREDIBLY poor one but a start. How about first you don't compare him to a guy that was injured all year and playing on a different team. THEN how about you compare him against...oh...say...all of the other WRs in the NFL OK?...Thanks! Again, where is the production???? Making some cheap shot lame comparison to an injured Lee Evans has no value.

 

 

BTW Lee Evans played for the Bills in 2010

 

Lee Evans 2010 Buffalo Bills 13 13 37 578 15.6 54 4

David Nelson 2011 Buffalo Bills 16 13 61 658 10.8 35 5

 

I was just pointing out that the bumbling stumbling buffoon of a WR that can only catch passes when he is wide open In your opinion, David Nelson outperformed the WR you claimed was the "#1" WR in 2010.

 

 

Never said that Dareus was drafted to be a Bruce Smith. In fact I said they are nothing alike. I did compare him to Suh who was a guy that I hoped Dareus would have the same impact as and role. He exceeded Suh's numbers this year which was a big deal to me.

I was backing you up

[mountainwampus]

 

That's great that you have an opinion.

I can't remember a single Nelson catch where he didn't have a guy draped on him. I don't think your opinion is close to reality though.

 

 

While this is a slight exaggeration I'm totally with you. Nelson has been impressive. He's caught most everything that has come his way.

[PDaDdy]

What does this have to do with SJ13 being a starter for 2 years. Which outsiders said he wasn't.

 

BTW Nice move not putting the empirical data out there:

2011 Buffalo Bills 16 16 76 1,004 13.2 55 7

2010 Buffalo Bills 16 13 82 1,073 13.1 45 10

 

and twisting to mean something else.

Numbers look mostly the same to me.

 

 

What does there typo of SJ being a starter for 1 vs 2 years have to do with their assessment of our needs? Are you trying to discredit their spot on assessment because a couple of items didn't pass your irrelevant fact checker function? As the league has become a passing league apparently SJ is experiencing a drop off in production at WR while the rest of the NFL is steadily improving which is evidenced by his drop in the rankings. Considering we pass more than we ever have this is particularly interesting.

 

BTW Lee Evans played for the Bills in 2010

 

Lee Evans 2010 Buffalo Bills 13 13 37 578 15.6 54 4

David Nelson 2011 Buffalo Bills 16 13 61 658 10.8 35 5

I was just pointing out that the bumbling stumbling buffoon of a WR that can only catch passes when he is wide open In your opinion, David Nelson outperformed the WR you claimed was the "#1" WR in 2010.

 

I did not get that you were comparing 2010 to 2011 respectively for each player as I didn't understand the relevance of doing so. I thought you were comparing their performance for this year. I'm glad you find some value comparing his performance this year to Lee's last year. I find infinitely more value in comparing his performance to the rest of the NFL to see how he stacks up.

 

Nelson 2011 61st in yards 45th (~14 way tie) in TDs.

 

Additionally lease please please point out where I say or intimate that Nelson is a bumbling, stumbling buffoon. That is YOUR sensationalist and polarizing statement not mine and I disagree with it. I like Nelson and have high hopes for him but lets not start calling him a play maker just yet eh? Nelson is one guy in what are usually 4 and 5 WR sets that doesn't get doubled.

 

Basically he is a pretty good #3 WR as far as the rest of the NFL is concerned for now. Let's hope he continues to improve because I think there is something there.

 

I was backing you up

 

We are in agreement on Dareus then indeed. Glad we have the kid.

Edited February 10, 2012 by PDaDdy

[Thirty Year Fan]

Nelson's playmaking ability is strictly limited to schemes designed to create a mismatch. When the Bills had a full compliment on offense, the first part of the season, Nelson was the 4 th receiver, often lined up in a tight end or H-back position, or split out slightly from tackle, but generally the 4th WR on the field. In this situation, Nelson was able to exploit mismatches and confusion in coverage very effectively. The bills were rolling on offense then, and Nelson was a star. Once the injuries began to pile up (Parrish, Jones, LT, Woods, Jackson) the Bills suddenly had very limited offensive threats, and much poorer OL play. Nelson was expected to play more of an every down role in Gailey''s offense as a slot receiver, but with other offensive threats increasingly non-existent, and the OL struggling, Nelson became a non-factor over the second half of the season. I love the guy, but he is no "threat" on his own. He can, and has been, very effective as an overload to the defense, but will not be productive as a starter at WR in any of the top 3 slots. I think this was pretty well proven last year.

You nailed it great post!

[atlbillsfan1975]

Where does a 40 front get its pass rush from? DE's. And Buffalo doesn't have one proven to be a bonafide pass rusher with the only options on the roster being an aging Kelsay (a base end) and Carrington (another bigger base end). And whatever production from DT's is a bonus. Buffalo needs a 7 tech or 9 tech who rushes from the RDE spot. And anyone mentioning Shawne Merriman clearly is wishing upon a star. The guy is cooked and hasn't rushed with a hand in the ground in his entire NFL career.

 

FO may be off in a few small details, but their analysis is spot-on. Buffalo needs more pass rush help immediately, has no depth at WR where former UDFA's were counted on to provide the difference, and if Johnson leaves they have nothing proven. David Nelson averaged less than 11 yards per reception, and had 50 yards receiving in only 2 of the last 13 games. He is at best a third receiver.

I agree that the Bills need to draft or sign in FA a big time DE.

But for now our division goes thru NE, and has so for the last 12 years, save a blip here and there by NY and MIA.

The book is out on how to beat Brady, rush from the middle of the D. The switch back to the 4-3 puts William and Dareus in the best spots for them to succeed. They will also eat up the entire interior 3 Olineman. If the Bills can get it right and pick up a pass rushing DE and Kelsay can play solid(i think he is) then the front 4 will look very good.

 

They will also open up holes for blitzing LB to shoot thru.

[mountainwampus]

I find infinitely more value in comparing his performance to the rest of the NFL to see how he stacks up.

 

Nelson 2011 61st in yards 45th (~14 way tie) in TDs.

 

 

 

Not sure why you doubt Nelson. He's #2 in WR stats on this team and right behind SJ. That's what really matters. There is no chance other NFL teams aren't game planning for him, especially on 3rd down and in the redzone. He may not be a "deep threat" or a "playmaker" but neither is Stevie. He was used as an H-back early in the season, so he's likely the best run-blocker of the WRs. What has he done wrong? Other than give that ball to his gf?

Edited February 10, 2012 by mountainwampus

[Ramius]

What does there typo of SJ being a starter for 1 vs 2 years have to do with their assessment of our needs? Are you trying to discredit their spot on assessment because a couple of items didn't pass your irrelevant fact checker function? As the league has become a passing league apparently SJ is experiencing a drop off in production at WR while the rest of the NFL is steadily improving which is evidenced by his drop in the rankings. Considering we pass more than we ever have this is particularly interesting.

 

 

stevie is one of only 9 WRs to post 1,000 yards receiving in the past 2 seasons. Seeing as he had almost identical stats between '10 and '11, and in '11 he had no other WR threat to take any heat off him, i'd say he's a little better than "worst 1/3 of all WRs"

[Maddog69]

Um Stevie Johnson started two years in a row.

David Nelson has playmaking ability.

Wanny isn't a new hire.

 

They switched to the 4-3 two years ago.

 

Yeah besides that spot on.

 

I get it, you are nit picking.

But their overall assessment of what we need to improve on is correct. We need an elite pass rushing DE and we need to sign Stevie.

I think you are trying a bit too hard to be negative about their article.

[1B4IDie]

What does there typo of SJ being a starter for 1 vs 2 years have to do with their assessment of our needs? Are you trying to discredit their spot on assessment because a couple of items didn't pass your irrelevant fact checker function? As the league has become a passing league apparently SJ is experiencing a drop off in production at WR while the rest of the NFL is steadily improving which is evidenced by his drop in the rankings. Considering we pass more than we ever have this is particularly interesting.

 

 

 

I did not get that you were comparing 2010 to 2011 respectively for each player as I didn't understand the relevance of doing so. I thought you were comparing their performance for this year. I'm glad you find some value comparing his performance this year to Lee's last year. I find infinitely more value in comparing his performance to the rest of the NFL to see how he stacks up.

 

Nelson 2011 61st in yards 45th (~14 way tie) in TDs.

 

Additionally lease please please point out where I say or intimate that Nelson is a bumbling, stumbling buffoon. That is YOUR sensationalist and polarizing statement not mine and I disagree with it. I like Nelson and have high hopes for him but lets not start calling him a play maker just yet eh? Nelson is one guy in what are usually 4 and 5 WR sets that doesn't get doubled.

 

Basically he is a pretty good #3 WR as far as the rest of the NFL is concerned for now. Let's hope he continues to improve because I think there is something there.

 

 

 

We are in agreement on Dareus then indeed. Glad we have the kid.

 

Thats great that you find value in that. However I don't understand how it has any value.

 

You need to look at real world in game yards, TD, and 1st down performance and the effect on that team.

 

It has almost no meaning that Stevie Johnson got 54 less yards than AJ Green. I really don't know what comparing different offenses and where they stack up means.

 

Lets look at the real numbers:

 

11 Mike Wallace (Pit) 72 1,193 16.6 74.6 95 8

12 Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 76 1,192 15.7 79.5 68 7

13 Dwayne Bowe (KC) 81 1,159 14.3 72.4 52 5

14 Marques Colston (NO) 80 1,143 14.3 81.6 50 8

15 Antonio Brown (Pit) 69 1,108 16.1 69.3 79 2

16 Vincent Jackson (SD) 60 1,106 18.4 69.1 58 9

17 A.J. Green (Cin) 65 1,057 16.3 70.5 58 7

18 Nate Washington (Ten) 74 1,023 13.8 63.9 57 7

19 Stevie Johnson (Buf) 76 1,004 13.2 62.8 55 7

20 Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oak) 64 975 15.2 65.0 58 4

21 Percy Harvin (Min) 87 967 11.1 60.4 52 6

22 Brandon Lloyd (Den/StL) 70 966 13.8 64.4 44 5

23 DeSean Jackson (Phi) 58 961 16.6 64.1 62 4

24 Reggie Wayne (Ind) 75 960 12.8 60.0 56 4

25 Julio Jones (Atl) 54 959 17.8 73.8 80 8

26 Greg Jennings (GB) 67 949 14.2 73.0 79 9

27 Pierre Garcon (Ind) 70 947 13.5 59.2 87 6

28 Jabar Gaffney (Was) 68 947 13.9 59.2 45 5

29 Jason Witten (Dal) 79 942 11.9 58.9 64 5

30 Dez Bryant (Dal) 63 928 14.7 61.9 50 9

31 Aaron Hernandez (NE) 79 910 11.5 65.0 46 7

 

Because Dez Bryant is the #30 WR and got 76 less yards the Steven Johnson is Dez Bryant 21 slots worse than Stevie Johnson?

 

You tell me what that means, because I don't believe it is relevant at all.

 

Nelson performs on the field and performs well. He gives the Bills a 3rd option to get first down, TDs, and yards and is very effective at his role.

 

I get it, you are nit picking.

But their overall assessment of what we need to improve on is correct. We need an elite pass rushing DE and we need to sign Stevie.

I think you are trying a bit too hard to be negative about their article.

Yeah you can call it nit picking I call it fact checking.

 

If you're going to write an article about the Buffalo Bills and you get the facts wrong but come to the obvious conclusion that everyone knows, do you really write anything of value? The Bills need a DE and to sign Stevie; Wow ground breaking. HOwever the rest of the article is lazy.

 

If this is their level of reporting about the Bills does the other assessments of other teams have any value?

Edited February 10, 2012 by Why So Serious?

[PDaDdy]

Not sure why you doubt Nelson. He's #2 in WR stats on this team and right behind SJ. That's what really matters. There is no chance other NFL teams aren't game planning for him, especially on 3rd down and in the redzone. He may not be a "deep threat" or a "playmaker" but neither is Stevie. He was used as an H-back early in the season, so he's likely the best run-blocker of the WRs. What has he done wrong? Other than give that ball to his gf?

 

I have no problem with what he has done or even giving the ball to his girl friend. He probably got some "extra attention" from her that you or I would give up an appendage for. I'm just telling people to hold their horses. He is the #2 on this team due to injury but is that really saying much? I think he has good potential and him being thrust into a starting role has probably helped accelerate his growth as it did with Spiller.

 

What "really matters" is that we have grown so accustomed to mediocrity in Buffalo that we celebrate a guy who is putting up #3 WR stats compared to the rest of the league and our #1 ranks near the bottom 3rd of the top 32 WRs(#1s). These guys can improve but come on.

 

Look at the WRs the great teams have. They have guys that have catching radii outside of their upper torso. We have a bunch of body snatchers that can't compare to other WRs that can catch outside their body or over their heads. Do you think Nelson would start for the Giants, Patriots, Packers, Saints or Lions? The answer is no unless you are fooling yourself. To be honest SJ would like be a #3 on any of those teams or possibly a #2. I'm talking all targets including the TEs. This is what we have come to accept.

 

Why are we even talking about getting free agent or drafting WRs? Because what we have currently isn't good enough. We have guys that can improve and I have hope and have the expectation that THEY WILL but WR is NOT a strength on this team. Not by a long shot.

 

stevie is one of only 9 WRs to post 1,000 yards receiving in the past 2 seasons. Seeing as he had almost identical stats between '10 and '11, and in '11 he had no other WR threat to take any heat off him, i'd say he's a little better than "worst 1/3 of all WRs"

 

Last 3rd of the top 32 (#1s). One #1 pass catcher per team.

 

I get it, you are nit picking.

But their overall assessment of what we need to improve on is correct. We need an elite pass rushing DE and we need to sign Stevie.

I think you are trying a bit too hard to be negative about their article.

 

Exactly my point to him.

 

Thats great that you find value in that. However I don't understand how it has any value.

 

You need to look at real world in game yards, TD, and 1st down performance and the effect on that team.

 

It has almost no meaning that Stevie Johnson got 54 less yards than AJ Green. I really don't know what comparing different offenses and where they stack up means.

 

Lets look at the real numbers:

 

11 Mike Wallace (Pit) 72 1,193 16.6 74.6 95 8

12 Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 76 1,192 15.7 79.5 68 7

13 Dwayne Bowe (KC) 81 1,159 14.3 72.4 52 5

14 Marques Colston (NO) 80 1,143 14.3 81.6 50 8

15 Antonio Brown (Pit) 69 1,108 16.1 69.3 79 2

16 Vincent Jackson (SD) 60 1,106 18.4 69.1 58 9

17 A.J. Green (Cin) 65 1,057 16.3 70.5 58 7

18 Nate Washington (Ten) 74 1,023 13.8 63.9 57 7

19 Stevie Johnson (Buf) 76 1,004 13.2 62.8 55 7

20 Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oak) 64 975 15.2 65.0 58 4

21 Percy Harvin (Min) 87 967 11.1 60.4 52 6

22 Brandon Lloyd (Den/StL) 70 966 13.8 64.4 44 5

23 DeSean Jackson (Phi) 58 961 16.6 64.1 62 4

24 Reggie Wayne (Ind) 75 960 12.8 60.0 56 4

25 Julio Jones (Atl) 54 959 17.8 73.8 80 8

26 Greg Jennings (GB) 67 949 14.2 73.0 79 9

27 Pierre Garcon (Ind) 70 947 13.5 59.2 87 6

28 Jabar Gaffney (Was) 68 947 13.9 59.2 45 5

29 Jason Witten (Dal) 79 942 11.9 58.9 64 5

30 Dez Bryant (Dal) 63 928 14.7 61.9 50 9

31 Aaron Hernandez (NE) 79 910 11.5 65.0 46 7

 

Because Dez Bryant is the #30 WR and got 76 less yards the Steven Johnson is Dez Bryant 21 slots worse than Stevie Johnson?

 

You tell me what that means, because I don't believe it is relevant at all.

 

Nelson performs on the field and performs well. He gives the Bills a 3rd option to get first down, TDs, and yards and is very effective at his role.

 

 

Yeah you can call it nit picking I call it fact checking.

 

If you're going to write an article about the Buffalo Bills and you get the facts wrong but come to the obvious conclusion that everyone knows, do you really write anything of value? The Bills need a DE and to sign Stevie; Wow ground breaking. HOwever the rest of the article is lazy.

 

If this is their level of reporting about the Bills does the other assessments of other teams have any value?

 

If all you care about is yards then yes Dez Bryant is not as good of a WR as SJ. How about those things called TDs? OH?....You mean he scored more TDs and got more first downs? This is why I included both yardage and TDs while you tried to cherry pick one stat to attempt to illustrate some flaw in my logic. Thanks for reminding me of the importance of 1st down conversions where SJ ranks 24th in the league.

 

I find it EXTREMELY funny that you mention not only yards but TDs and first down performance yet you omit any stats for TDs and first down performance. AGAIN, SJ is in the bottom 3rd of the top 32 pass catchers in the league. What is so hard to understand about that? I love the guy. I desperately want him back on this team but the facts is the facts. He ranks where he ranks.

Edited February 10, 2012 by PDaDdy

[1B4IDie]

I have no problem with what he has done or even giving the ball to his girl friend. He probably got some "extra attention" from her that you or I would give up an appendage for. I'm just telling people to hold their horses. He is the #2 on this team due to injury but is that really saying much? I think he has good potential and him being thrust into a starting role has probably helped accelerate his growth as it did with Spiller.

 

What "really matters" is that we have grown so accustomed to mediocrity in Buffalo that we celebrate a guy who is putting up #3 WR stats compared to the rest of the league and our #1 ranks near the bottom 3rd of the top 32 WRs(#1s). These guys can improve but come on.

 

Look at the WRs the great teams have. They have guys that have catching radii outside of their upper torso. We have a bunch of body snatchers that can't compare to other WRs that can catch outside their body or over their heads. Do you think Nelson would start for the Giants, Patriots, Packers, Saints or Lions? The answer is no unless you are fooling yourself. To be honest SJ would like be a #3 on any of those teams or possibly a #2. I'm talking all targets including the TEs. This is what we have come to accept.

 

Why are we even talking about getting free agent or drafting WRs? Because what we have currently isn't good enough. We have guys that can improve and I have hope and have the expectation that THEY WILL but WR is NOT a strength on this team. Not by a long shot.

 

 

 

Last 3rd of the top 32 (#1s). One #1 pass catcher per team.

 

 

 

Exactly my point to him.

 

 

 

If all you care about is yards then yes Dez Bryant is not as good of a WR as SJ. How about those things called TDs? OH?....You mean he scored more TDs and got more first downs? This is why I included both yardage and TDs while you tried to cherry pick one stat to attempt to illustrate some flaw in my logic. Thanks for reminding me of the importance of 1st down conversions where SJ ranks 24th in the league.

 

I find it EXTREMELY funny that you mention not only yards but TDs and first down performance yet you omit any stats for TDs and first down performance. AGAIN, SJ is in the bottom 3rd of the top 32 pass catchers in the league. What is so hard to understand about that? I love the guy. I desperately want him back on this team but the facts is the facts. He ranks where he ranks.

I didn't exclude anything or cherry pick.

 

Dez has 9TDs Stevie had 7, its right there in my post.

 

But instead of saying 7 and 9 you want to say Stevie is 24th (Actually, infact he is tied for 21st and Dez Bryant is tied for 6th) Like I said before stank ranking means nothing to me; we're talking about 2 TDs over 16 game different; not "9th" and "24th".

 

What the player does on the team in the offensive system is more important.

 

What is so hard to understand about that?

[PDaDdy]

I didn't exclude anything or cherry pick.

 

Dez has 9TDs Stevie had 7, its right there in my post.

 

But instead of saying 7 and 9 you want to say Stevie is 24th (Actually, infact he is tied for 21st and Dez Bryant is tied for 6th) Like I said before stank ranking means nothing to me; we're talking about 2 TDs over 16 game different; not "9th" and "24th".

 

What the player does on the team in the offensive system is more important.

 

What is so hard to understand about that?

 

Again you are focusing on one stat at a time. To stick with your Dez Bryant example Dez is better than SJ in 2 of the 3 categories you mentioned as being important and he trails in the 3rd category of yards by a whopping 76 yards. To take your tactic and you actually look at yds/game considering Bryant missed games due to injury he is a whopping 0.9 yds/game behind SJ or about 11 inches a game.

 

You are trying to look at the team in a vacuum which you can't. Nelson is in all likelihood the second best WR on this team. I wouldn't even argue that and as stated I like the guy and expect that he will improve.

 

I can point to any guy who is the second best on say an arena league football team or a college football team. It doesn't mean they are NFL good. Talent is relevant to your peers. In relation to his peers Nelson is a good #3 but wouldn't start on MANY teams. What is so hard to understand about that? You can cheer for the guy, hope for his continued success as I do but do so with open eyes and also see what the stats tell you.

Edited February 10, 2012 by PDaDdy

[1B4IDie]

Again you are focusing on one stat at a time. To stick with your Dez Bryant example Dez is better than SJ in 2 of the 3 categories you mentioned as being important and he trails in the 3rd category of yards by a whopping 76 yards. To take your tactic and you actually look at yds/game considering Bryant missed games due to injury he is a whopping 0.9 yds/game behind SJ or about 11 inches a game.

 

You are trying to look at the team in a vacuum which you can't. Nelson is in all likelihood the second best WR on this team. I wouldn't even argue that and as stated I like the guy and expect that he will improve.

 

I can point to any guy who is the second best on say an arena league football team or a college football team. It doesn't mean they are NFL good. Talent is relevant to your peers. In relation to his peers Nelson is a good #3 but wouldn't start on MANY teams. What is so hard to understand about that? You can cheer for the guy, hope for his continued success as I do but do so with open eyes and also see what the stats tell you.

You just proved my point. We're talking about 0.9 yds/game. Which means that stank ranking is irrelevant.

[PDaDdy]

You just proved my point. We're talking about 0.9 yds/game. Which means that stank ranking is irrelevant.

 

My point in bringing up the 0.9 yd/game was to point out that it is almost a tie in the 3rd category and Dez is the clear leader in the other 2.

 

Riiiiight. Stats are irrelevant. Let's just give everyone a fat contract and a gold star because they tried hard. It's crap like that that is making our children ill prepared for the world they will grow up and live in. If you're good you will have the grades or stats to prove it. Worlds apart or slight difference Dez Bryant is a better WR. He's technically not even the #1 target on his team. See what I am saying?

 

Again I like our guys and hope they do well but when we compare them to other teams that have REAL talent....our guys don't stack up. You can't have a probowler at every position. I understand that. Those guys may be effective in our system which is to flood the defense with passing options but that doesn't make them great WRs. Are they bad...HELL NO! Are there many that are better....HELL YES!

Edited February 10, 2012 by PDaDdy

[VirginiaMike]

Lasted barely a year? They were implementing it over two seasons. They obviously stepped back once they shifted more to 4-3 looks in mid-season, but 3-4 came in with Gailey. These guys are definitely off the mark.

Some small details off the mark, but what they are saying is spot on. Having Williams & Dareus in the lineup working up the middle will improve the Bills. None of the D-Ends they have will make the necessary leap to good pass rusher so the need it absolutely there. Stevie is someone the Bills need to resign (and unfortunately I don't see it happening). We also need improvement there regardless -- look what having 3 "go to" receivers who can make a big play did for Manning & the Giants. The only other possible Big Play receiver the Bills have may be Parrish and that's stretching the definition of big play. He also is likely gone.

You say off the mark -- I say spot on with the important info.