Kiper on QBs in the draft

[Tortured Soul]

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/...-guru-mel-kiper

 

Can Buffalo's struggles at finding a long term answer at QB be related to them consistently drafting QBs who have played for warm weather schools?

Mel Kiper

(1:45 PM)

 

 

Not really. Jim Kelly played at Miami and he went to the Hall of Fame. He almost won them multiple Super Bowls. Should have won at least one. Trent Edwards showed flashes at times. Losman was there, but now he's in Oakland after playing in the USFL. Bernie Kosar came out of Miami and had an excellent career in Cleveland. I made a comment when the Bears drafted Cade McNown that he didn't have the arm strength to play in the wind and cold. There are times when it's valid. But Trent Edwards has a great arm. If a QB has a very average arm, then you have to worry about it.

J (Milwaukee)

 

 

To piggy back that last question, can Bradford, McCoy, or Claussen sling in the winds and cold of Buffalo?

Mel Kiper

(1:48 PM)

 

 

People keep making this comment that Clausen doesn't have a good arm, he does. They keep saying he doesn't have an Elway arm, but who does? Elway and Burt Jones have the best arms I've seen. Clausen doesn't have the Elway arm, but his arm is very strong. He can make any throw you need him to make. When he had to stick it in there to a smaller receiver in Golden Tate, he did just that. Tate told me a couple of weeks ago that he can't remember a throw that wasn't precisely thrown and hit him in stride. Clausen played through adversity, the turf toe. He's the best QB in the draft. Sam Bradford is right there. Does he get a good bill of health at the combine? If he does, he's right there. The shoulder's the key thing for him.

Mel Kiper

(1:49 PM)

 

 

After that, Colt McCoy has the biggest game in any of the bowl games. He struggled against Oklahoma's defense in October and he struggled against Nebraska. This is a great Alabama defense with Nick Saban. If he does well, he's a second round pick, maybe first. If he doesn't, he's a third rounder. Tony Pike from Cincinnati, it will be interesting to see how he plays against that Florida defense.

Mel Kiper

(1:51 PM)

 

 

You don't always want to look at one specific game that a QB has. On the heels of Oklahoma and Nebraska, this will be the third game against a top flight defense in Alabama for McCoy. If it were one game, it wouldn't matter. This will be the third game that he'll face and in the previous two, he struggled. It's important because if he wants to go into the process with momentum, he needs to play well here.

[PromoTheRobot]

Is there an archive of Mel Kiper articles from years past? I'd like to read what he's said about other QB's coming out of college and see how often he is right.

 

PTR

[C.Biscuit97]

Is there an archive of Mel Kiper articles from years past? I'd like to read what he's said about other QB's coming out of college and see how often he is right.

 

PTR

 

He thought Leaf was a better QB coming out than Manning was. I like him for the most part but I take everything he says with a huge grain of salt. He never played, coached, or worked in football at any level. I believe he just attended juco. I give him credit for conning ESPN into paying him but he is essentially an internet poster who just gets paid to watch college football. Great gig but hardly anyone I'd put any real stock into.

[billsfan89]

He thought Leaf was a better QB coming out than Manning was. I like him for the most part but I take everything he says with a huge grain of salt. He never played, coached, or worked in football at any level. I believe he just attended juco. I give him credit for conning ESPN into paying him but he is essentially an internet poster who just gets paid to watch college football. Great gig but hardly anyone I'd put any real stock into.

 

To be fair he is right at a higher rate then an internet poster BUT he is far from perfect (he sucks at scouting QB's) and the draft is a crapshoot anyway so for anyone to be a guru at it is just strange.

[DarthICE]

Is there an archive of Mel Kiper articles from years past? I'd like to read what he's said about other QB's coming out of college and see how often he is right.

 

PTR

 

Same here. I would presume he is off the mark more than not.

[C.Biscuit97]

To be fair he is right at a higher rate then an internet poster BUT he is far from perfect (he sucks at scouting QB's) and the draft is a crapshoot anyway so for anyone to be a guru at it is just strange.

 

I agree for the msot part and he created a niche for himself. However, I'd love to challenge him for his salary and get to watch films & evaluate players to see who is more right. That would be a great reality show.

[Thurman#1]

He thought Leaf was a better QB coming out than Manning was. I like him for the most part but I take everything he says with a huge grain of salt. He never played, coached, or worked in football at any level. I believe he just attended juco. I give him credit for conning ESPN into paying him but he is essentially an internet poster who just gets paid to watch college football. Great gig but hardly anyone I'd put any real stock into.

 

 

 

Last year they did a rating of the pundits who did best on draft picks in the last five years. Kiper was in the top ten.

 

Saying that, nobody is perfect, right up to and including Polian. But Kiper is among the absolute best of the non-team-employed guys out there.

[LABills08]

Any word from Kiper on Mallet?

[Tortured Soul]

Any word from Kiper on Mallet?

from the same chat:

 

Scott (Fayetteville, AR)

 

 

Ryan Mallett submitted his NFL Evaluation Papers this week...What are they going to tell him? If he comes out, where does he get drafted?

Mel Kiper

(1:11 PM)

 

 

The advisory board is a great thing to have, but it tends to be ultra conservative with their ratings. Ultimately, they would like to see these kids go back and they don't want to see a kid go lower than where they said he would go because they would throw it back in their face. People jump on me, Todd and other analysts, but the advisory board has been wrong at times too. It's not perfect. It's a nice tool to have for the players, but it's not perfect. Jake Locker went back, perhaps because they didn't tell him he was going to be a first round pick. He would have been a top 10 pick. Mallett needs another year, just like Locker, for his football development. But both are too good to overlook in the first round. Mallett, with his size and arm, he would be in the discussion about being in the top 10. I think he would have been in the early to mid first round. He has all of those sophomore WRs. His main RB returns. He has a lot of talent around him coming back. We'll have to wait and see on his decision. With Locker going back, if Mallett goes back, they'll be competing for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft next year.

[Buckeye Eric]

Kiper Profile.

[PromoTheRobot]

Kiper Profile.

Are those "proof of genius" quotes true? Jeebuz.

 

PTR

[seq004]

Who the hell is Mel Kiper JR?

[Endzone Animal]

Credibility lost, Melvin.

 

I made a comment when the Bears drafted Cade McNown that he didn't have the arm strength to play in the wind and cold. There are times when it's valid. But Trent Edwards has a great arm. If a QB has a very average arm, then you have to worry about it.

[ajzepp]

Not really. Jim Kelly played at Miami and he went to the Hall of Fame. He almost won them multiple Super Bowls. Should have won at least one. Trent Edwards showed flashes at times. Losman was there, but now he's in Oakland after playing in the USFL. Bernie Kosar came out of Miami and had an excellent career in Cleveland. I made a comment when the Bears drafted Cade McNown that he didn't have the arm strength to play in the wind and cold. There are times when it's valid. But Trent Edwards has a great arm. If a QB has a very average arm, then you have to worry about it.

J (Milwaukee)

 

 

Jim Kelly went to Miami, but he's from PA. Bernie Kosar is from Ohio. Cade McNown is from Oregon. I don't care so much where they went to school as I do where they're from.

[timbuk3]

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/...-guru-mel-kiper

 

Not really. Jim Kelly played at Miami and he went to the Hall of Fame. He almost won them multiple Super Bowls. Should have won at least one. Trent Edwards showed flashes at times. Losman was there, but now he's in Oakland after playing in the USFL. Bernie Kosar came out of Miami and had an excellent career in Cleveland. I made a comment when the Bears drafted Cade McNown that he didn't have the arm strength to play in the wind and cold. There are times when it's valid. But Trent Edwards has a great arm. If a QB has a very average arm, then you have to worry about it.

J (Milwaukee)

 

Yes, Kelly played at Convict U, but grew up in Western PA, so he was no stranger to foul weather. Ditto for Kosar who grew up in the Youngstown, OH area.

 

[slyng1]

Kiper Profile.

I had never heard of www.dickipedia.org - Frigging Genius. There are some excellent entries besides Mel Kiper...

[BillnutinHouston]

I say leave all the QB's alone and pick up a LT. Better bet to not be a bust.

[Albany,n.y.]

He thought Leaf was a better QB coming out than Manning was. I like him for the most part but I take everything he says with a huge grain of salt. He never played, coached, or worked in football at any level. I believe he just attended juco. I give him credit for conning ESPN into paying him but he is essentially an internet poster who just gets paid to watch college football. Great gig but hardly anyone I'd put any real stock into.

I just opened Kiper's 1998 Draft Report and it had Manning #1, not Leaf (who was #2). He had them both graded at 9.7 but he had Manning ahead of Leaf. So, you take what he says with such a huge grain of salt, you don't even know what he says.

[Thoner7]

I just opened Kiper's 1998 Draft Report and it had Manning #1, not Leaf (who was #2). He had them both graded at 9.7 but he had Manning ahead of Leaf. So, you take what he says with such a huge grain of salt, you don't even know what he says.

 

He also had J. Russel at #1.

 

Half the time I think these guys just rate the players as to where they will be drafted, no when they should be drafted.

 

Thats my only explanation to them rating Maybin so high.

[aristocrat]

arm strength is needed but not the most important...hell look at boller who could kneel down at the 50 and clear the uprights...russell could do it from even further but i never saw the video. we need a qb in the worst way...schaub gets sacked constantly, so did palmer, and rodgers but they still are gamers and can win em for you. you can build a line if the defense respects your qb...if you dont have a qb your line will look awful

[Thurman#1]

from the same chat:

 

Scott (Fayetteville, AR)

 

 

Ryan Mallett submitted his NFL Evaluation Papers this week...What are they going to tell him? If he comes out, where does he get drafted?

Mel Kiper

(1:11 PM)

 

 

The advisory board is a great thing to have, but it tends to be ultra conservative with their ratings. Ultimately, they would like to see these kids go back and they don't want to see a kid go lower than where they said he would go because they would throw it back in their face. People jump on me, Todd and other analysts, but the advisory board has been wrong at times too. It's not perfect. It's a nice tool to have for the players, but it's not perfect. Jake Locker went back, perhaps because they didn't tell him he was going to be a first round pick. He would have been a top 10 pick. Mallett needs another year, just like Locker, for his football development. But both are too good to overlook in the first round. Mallett, with his size and arm, he would be in the discussion about being in the top 10. I think he would have been in the early to mid first round. He has all of those sophomore WRs. His main RB returns. He has a lot of talent around him coming back. We'll have to wait and see on his decision. With Locker going back, if Mallett goes back, they'll be competing for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft next year.

 

 

 

Thanks, Tortured, good stuff.

[Thurman#1]

Are those "proof of genius" quotes true? Jeebuz.

 

PTR

 

 

 

Hard to say. The site is named dikipedia for Pete's sake.

 

You can't trust anything a guy like that says.

[Thurman#1]

Jim Kelly went to Miami, but he's from PA. Bernie Kosar is from Ohio. Cade McNown is from Oregon. I don't care so much where they went to school as I do where they're from.

 

 

The Mannings are from New Orleans. It's not exactly Arctic conditions there.

[ajzepp]

The Mannings are from New Orleans. It's not exactly Arctic conditions there.

 

Of course there are examples of successful QBs who come from warmer climates....but generally speaking, I think there are those of us who definitely cite it as a factor, especially given the recent crop of crap QBs we've trotted through the Ralph over the last decade. The two most successful QBs were both from colder climates, too - Bledsoe and Flutie. At this point, I'd settle for a QB who is not concerned about how his hair looks when he takes off his helmet on the sideline.

[Mr. WEO]

Jim Kelly went to Miami, but he's from PA. Bernie Kosar is from Ohio. Cade McNown is from Oregon. I don't care so much where they went to school as I do where they're from.

Why? Because they may have played some HS football in a Fall chill?

 

At least Kiper doesn't propagate the "warm weather QB's can't play in cold NFL cities" nonsense.

[CountDorkula]

Why? Because they may have played some HS football in a Fall chill?

 

At least Kiper doesn't propagate the "warm weather QB's can't play in cold NFL cities" nonsense.

 

 

I cant stand the argument that he is not cold weather tested blah blah blah. If you are a good QB you can play in any weather, no matter where you are from. Rain, snow, sleet, wind, tornado, etc.... the last one may be a stretch but hey you get the point.

[Armchair GM]

Is there an archive of Mel Kiper articles from years past? I'd like to read what he's said about other QB's coming out of college and see how often he is right.

 

PTR

 

In a nuttshel, Kiper on

Brohm: "Polished pure passer, in the JIM KELLY mold...

Rogers: "Too mechanical"

Flacco: "Right up there with Henne"

Russell: "Good decision making"

Quinn: "Best under pressure"

Alex Smith: "Smart, will pick up an NFL system quickly"

Charlie Whitehurst:"A potential NFL star" who?

Cade McNown:"Is going to be good. Really, really good."

 

FAIL!!

 

[BuffOrange]

He thought Leaf was a better QB coming out than Manning was. I like him for the most part but I take everything he says with a huge grain of salt. He never played, coached, or worked in football at any level. I believe he just attended juco. I give him credit for conning ESPN into paying him but he is essentially an internet poster who just gets paid to watch college football. Great gig but hardly anyone I'd put any real stock into.

I just opened Kiper's 1998 Draft Report and it had Manning #1, not Leaf (who was #2). He had them both graded at 9.7 but he had Manning ahead of Leaf. So, you take what he says with such a huge grain of salt, you don't even know what he says.

 

Yah, and internet poster is one thing Kiper is not. Internet poster looks at Kiper's board and then tweaks it because to them, his 4th ranked WR was more impressive than the 3rd in the 1-2 college games they've seen. But there is something to be said for compiling that board in the first place and have it resemble the actual draft as much as he does. Nobody would've heard of most of these linemen if it weren't for guys like Kiper, but that doesn't stop internet poster from pretending like they know anything about a lineman from BC. If they didn't have Kiper's board to fall back on as a reference, internet poster would've had Mike Hart as a 1st round pick.

[C.Biscuit97]

I just opened Kiper's 1998 Draft Report and it had Manning #1, not Leaf (who was #2). He had them both graded at 9.7 but he had Manning ahead of Leaf. So, you take what he says with such a huge grain of salt, you don't even know what he says.

 

 

You still have a 1998 draft guide??? Whatever. He still thought Leaf was going to be a stud. He has a ton of misses and has zero accountability. Like I said, I use him for entertainment. But it's not exactly what I'd view as something more than that.

[C.Biscuit97]

Yah, and internet poster is one thing Kiper is not. Internet poster looks at Kiper's board and then tweaks it because to them, his 4th ranked WR was more impressive than the 3rd in the 1-2 college games they've seen. But there is something to be said for compiling that board in the first place and have it resemble the actual draft as much as he does. Nobody would've heard of most of these linemen if it weren't for guys like Kiper, but that doesn't stop internet poster from pretending like they know anything about a lineman from BC. If they didn't have Kiper's board to fall back on as a reference, internet poster would've had Mike Hart as a 1st round pick.

 

Kiper has a great job that I'm jealous of. But I'll put my football background against his and a lot of posters on this board. I have very little doubt if my life consisted of only watching football, I could do a great job too. Good for Kiper but I apologize that I don't worship the man as a god for doing something a million people could do. Mike Mayock is better than him already.

[ajzepp]

Why? Because they may have played some HS football in a Fall chill?

 

At least Kiper doesn't propagate the "warm weather QB's can't play in cold NFL cities" nonsense.

 

 

I know, Kiper is a genius!

 

Sorry to disagree, man, but I don't see how anyone can say it's not a factor. You may weight it differently than I do, but players have been pretty vocal about the climate they play in, and I think QBs are the most affected by it. This team has been SOFT for YEARS. Playing in a cold weather city should make for an advantage for the home team, and it hasn't been that way since Kelly retired. If a QB is from Cali or wherever, that's fine, but we need someone who has the balls to go out there on a Sunday where it's 15 degrees and snowing, and lead this team into the endzone. If they can do that, ultimately I don't care if he's from timbuktu....but all things being equal, if one QB is from an area where they know what winter is and the other has never even seen snow, I'll take the former.

[Tortured Soul]

If a QB is from Cali or wherever, that's fine, but we need someone who has the balls to go out there on a Sunday where it's 15 degrees and snowing, and lead this team into the endzone.

How many games like that do we play a year? One? Two?

[C.Biscuit97]

I know, Kiper is a genius!

 

Sorry to disagree, man, but I don't see how anyone can say it's not a factor. You may weight it differently than I do, but players have been pretty vocal about the climate they play in, and I think QBs are the most affected by it. This team has been SOFT for YEARS. Playing in a cold weather city should make for an advantage for the home team, and it hasn't been that way since Kelly retired. If a QB is from Cali or wherever, that's fine, but we need someone who has the balls to go out there on a Sunday where it's 15 degrees and snowing, and lead this team into the endzone. If they can do that, ultimately I don't care if he's from timbuktu....but all things being equal, if one QB is from an area where they know what winter is and the other has never even seen snow, I'll take the former.

 

It definitely makes for an interesting debate. Brady is from NoCal and so is Aaron Rodgers. Manning is from New Orleans (though he does have some struggles in the cold). Farve was a great December QB until he started to get old.

 

There are so few franchise QBs out there, it is hard to get so picky. The reason our QBs have struggled, IMO, isn't because they were from Cali. It was because they weren't very good and sure fire franchise guys in the first place.

 

Bottomline, we jsut need a stud QB. If he comes from Alaska or Africa, IMO, it doesn't really matter. But because guys like Losman, Edwards, and RJ failed here shouldn't limit our QB pool. They failed becauce they weren't good, not because they were from Cali.

[JCBoston]

Any word from Kiper on Mallet?

 

Mullet? Oh, you said 'Mallet'.

 

Kiper's all about the hair, anyway.

[Max997]

To be fair he is right at a higher rate then an internet poster BUT he is far from perfect (he sucks at scouting QB's) and the draft is a crapshoot anyway so for anyone to be a guru at it is just strange.

 

name me someone that is good at scouting QBs?

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

To be fair he is right at a higher rate then an internet poster BUT he is far from perfect (he sucks at scouting QB's) and the draft is a crapshoot anyway so for anyone to be a guru at it is just strange.

I guess Mayock is "strange" then.

[Mr. WEO]

I know, Kiper is a genius!

 

Sorry to disagree, man, but I don't see how anyone can say it's not a factor. You may weight it differently than I do, but players have been pretty vocal about the climate they play in, and I think QBs are the most affected by it. This team has been SOFT for YEARS. Playing in a cold weather city should make for an advantage for the home team, and it hasn't been that way since Kelly retired. If a QB is from Cali or wherever, that's fine, but we need someone who has the balls to go out there on a Sunday where it's 15 degrees and snowing, and lead this team into the endzone. If they can do that, ultimately I don't care if he's from timbuktu....but all things being equal, if one QB is from an area where they know what winter is and the other has never even seen snow, I'll take the former.

You are free to disagree, but the data does not support your opinion.

 

Looking at our 2 crappy California QQB picks and blaming their crappiness on warm weather upbringing is extremely lazy thinking. This has been discussed ad nauseum. The weather in Buffalo, for nearly the entire season, is just no that bad.

 

So let's "play along" and take "cold" out of the general discussion and just consider "wind and rain". Going back at the game day weather descriptions of the Bills home games for 2007 and 2008 (that gets us a nice mix of the best Cali has to offer--JP and TE), let's see what the data tells us about the harshness of everyday weather in Buffalo in the fall and how it negatively affected the play of these Sunny State Softies:

 

In 2007, six of the 8 home games were played at game time temps of greater than 50 degrees. Only 2 of those listed any precipitation at all (one "drizzle", one "sprinkles"). Only 2 listed winds of greater than 11 mph, or any gusts. Of the "rainy" games (being very liberal with that term), the Bills won 1, lost 1. Of the "windy" games, again they split them. Of note, in a game which had cold/freezing rain/wind, TE threw for 4 TDs.

 

In 2008, the Bills won 2 games that recorded "showers" or "chance of rain"and lost one. They lost 2 "windy" games, but then again, they lost games with "calm" winds also.

 

So, we see two things:

 

First, what most Buffalo/Rochester residents figured out pretty quickly:the summer and fall in this region is typically great weather (Spring---not so nice!) and that the claim that "wind and rain" are significant factors for the first half or 2/3 of the season is pure nonsense.

 

Second, even the sadly skilled Cali QBs we have had in Buffalo were clearly not affected by either "wind" nor "rain".

 

Bad QBs are bad everywhere. Good QBs can play anywhere no matter where they went to High School.

 

If you're waiting for the next great QB who was born and raised in the Northest---good luck! The vast majority of the future QBs that will enter college and the NFL will be from Cali, Texas, FL combined.

[EndZoneCrew]

I had never heard of www.dickipedia.org - Frigging Genius. There are some excellent entries besides Mel Kiper...

 

agreed...I love the fact that Brady is on there

[ajzepp]

How many games like that do we play a year? One? Two?

 

Well now, yeah....but back in the day it was usually the biggest games of the year that were in freezing cold weather, and that's when Jimbo and the boys kicked some arse and used the climate to its fullest advantage.

[ajzepp]

The weather in Buffalo, for nearly the entire season, is just no that bad.

 

 

Yeah, cause we haven't fuggin played past December for a damn DECADE, bro lol

 

Maybe you're too young to remember, but the road to the SB used to go through Buffalo, and the weather most definitely played a factor.