VW82

Yeah we have too many conference games left but good to know that if we tie there it goes to record against common opponents. Didn’t realize that so thanks to OP for at least getting this on everyone’s radar.

It says they take rushing stats into account in the second sentence of the article. Also, they have Lamar Jackson ranked 2nd overall if there was any confusion.

I have him in the 16-22 range as well (though probably toward the back end). It’s interesting that as much as many of us have disagreed on here wrt Allen most of us have him ranked in a similar tier. Also, though I really like the Elo system I do think you need an element of eye test when it comes to QBs. Jacoby Brissett is definitely better than 19 and pretty clearly above several guys in his tier and the one above IMO. Murray feels a little high. And Lamar over Russell Wilson? Those rushing stats must count for a lot!

Bet it happens @ Dallas. Our next five opponents are all ranked in the top half of the league in run D so there are no easy games. Once he gets close I have to think we'll make it a priority unless he's totally ineffective.

Happy to entertain anyone on here who wants to chat. No apology necessary. To be clear, I wasn't advocating for that at all; rather, merely providing explanation why I think many on here, including myself, have avoided using the report function. I'd also add that for us newer members we'd much rather find a way to get along with the regulars than report them. I'm down for talking Bills not causing waves. Like truly offended? No. It's more about putting effort into adding something to the discussion and being met with lots of "you're an idiot" or "delete your account #######" or whatever. I post on other sports sites and this one definitely has the most pronounced hive mentality though I suppose that comes with the territory and should be expected to some degree. The funny thing is, among my friends IRL, I'm considered an Allen homer. They all think he sucks and so I'm constantly defending him! Hah.

I certainly don't post here every day but do I spend too much time when I'm on here discussing Allen? Probably. I'll admit to that. But I've seen multiple occasions where a mod issued an unofficial warning by post number five (of the entire account) because the first four were about Allen. Given everything else I've seen on here it would seem fairly obvious that it's not just about frequency of the subject, it's also about the subject. As for how it's expressed, I don't think we're going to find a bunch of my old posts using inflammatory language, etc. I try hard to at least explain where I'm coming from, and I'm open to the opinions of others. Here's what I would say to this. It's a tough call to report posters, especially long standing ones with otherwise good reps, when a mod is posting in the same thread and at the same time as the personal attack, but doesn't address it publicly. The assumption is they probably saw it and did nothing (perhaps because it came from regular). I don't think you guys should be held to some impossible standard of catching everything, but there are numerous instances of attacks on here that...let's just say it would be surprising that a mod didn't see it. Out of all the personal attacks I've endured on here, I can't think of one time where I saw the poster get reprimanded without me reporting it. That seems odd. I will report attacks in the future.

There's a lot of truth here...maybe too much for this place. I think it comes down to this: you can't be overly pessimistic about Allen. You can have negative takes wrt anyone else on the team or in the front office but if you're consistently posting about Josh in a non-positive light you will be accused of campaigning against him or outright attacked personally. I had to take multiple weeks off here just to get away from all the personal attacks which just aren't healthy. It doesn't matter what else you're posting either. I'm super pumped about McD, our front office, our defense, how well our FA signings have worked out, etc. Post negatively about Allen and be prepared for responses that are more about destroying your credibility than entertaining discussion. Not everyone is like that, mind you. Many of the posters here are reasonable and you learn things from each other in disagreement. Just have to be careful as Josh seems to be a third rail Bills issue in a lot of ways.

FWIW Baker arguably hit that point in the latter half of 2018. It seems like a really high bar to set but a lot of QBs hit it. That's why it's only a glimpse.

Fair enough. Let me define "glimpse" from my POV so we're not stuck discussing two different things. In order to get on my radar as having potential franchise guy stuff, you half to go through a stretch of at least 6-8 games (probably more) where you play consistently well and make enough winning plays to lift your offense into top 10 territory. Even some of those guys wind up not becoming franchise guys, but very few aren't able to do that within their first two years and then suddenly become great down the road. Josh has had his moments (i.e. that first half vs. Vikings last year was crazy) but he's never been able to sustain it for longer than a quarter or two unless he's playing Miami. That's not enough in my book. All the 2018 guys save for Lamar are so up and down.

I wonder whether the fact that Ford doesn't have Nsekhe as a snap-to-snap threat to take his spot anymore will cause him to better focus on his job and play better.

It's the combined opinion of other NFL fans I've talked to who follow it closely, plus the opinions of people covering the league on podcasts, who write about it, etc. Plus he's outside the top 20 in most of the main QB statistical categories: 26th in passing YPG, 26th in QBR, 23rd in QB rating, etc. I think pretty much everyone agrees he's improved from the start of 2018 to now.

We did replace everyone around him and yet we're still one of the bottom offenses in the NFL this year (and mostly because of the passing game) despite playing one of the weakest opponent schedules in recent memory. I guess I'm not sure what qualifies as glimpses. It can't all be 4th quarter heroics. The impression I get from reading this forum is many Bills fans are convinced Allen's already shown he can be a franchise guy. I think there's some natural bias there. It doesn't feel like he's getting that treatment from opposing fan bases. For context, I don't think very many NFL fans are sold that Baker or Darnold or Rosen are going to be franchise guys either. Most would take Lamar as a franchise guy within the right offense, but only for the next 3-5 years given his style of play. It feels like all the 2018 guys are still in wait and see mode.

Not of being a franchise guy no. Those guys typically have multiple games where they pass for 300+ yards on good efficiency, and their offenses are usually in the top half of the league (top 10 for the best ones) barring extreme circumstances where there's little to no talent around them. That's not us. Josh has shown glimpses that he can become a good QB IMO, not a great one. Right now he's still arguably below average. I think most non-Bills fans would still have him out of the top 20.

That's what I did in the first set of graphs, and I agree. Here was my very first sentence in the post you originally replied to: "If the question is "has Josh improved since week one 2018?" then the answer is definitely yes." That was my second hypothesis -- that his improvement from the start of 2019 is murkier. I then showed it going back to week 11 last year when he returned from injury, and again, the improvement is much less obvious. It would appear most of the improvement in production happened pre vs. post injury 2018, though his efficiency has continued to rise. It's not about picking one graph over the other as we're measuring different time periods to provide more context. It's also just one piece of the puzzle to answering a loaded question. As I said in one of my other responses, we probably need consensus among smart people -- non-Bills fans -- based at least in part on eye test given the small sample size, and the fact we've faced an historically weak schedule of opponents to date.

Here's how I think we need to look at it. If Josh becomes a 10-15 year franchise guy then it was worth it. If not, then no. Lamar is going to give you 5-8 years playing this style. That's why he fell. If your argument is no one saw this coming from him then I call BS. He was electric in college and won the Heisman. It seemed pretty clear at the time you could build your offense around his skill set and win right away in this modern NFL where you can't hit people. We picked Josh for the long-term upside. The issue is most guys who don't show glimpses of being a franchise QB within the first two years rarely ever get there. Hopefully Josh can buck the trend.

Our whole receiving core (Brown, Beasley, Knox, Mckenzie) is underrated. None of them are traditional WR1 but they all regularly get open.

I said at the beginning of the year that we should be doing this, at least until Josh has a better idea of what he's doing at the line. If nothing else it puts tape out there of Josh making correct pre-snap reads. It also confirms to him that he's seeing what he's seeing in real time, and if not immediately correcting it. He'll have to drop the crutch eventually but right now training wheels are probably still appropriate.

I didn't say "for sure" anything. And that's fine but then you can't have it both ways. You can't say he's improving and then out of the other side of your mouth shoot down any evidence to the contrary by saying we can't judge him in the middle of a season. Personally, I think we can judge him at various points and that's ok. I agree that we'll likely have a better feel by the end of this season. Also, I posted a disclaimer with the graphs acknowledging the error in the trend line and the problems of doing this kind of analysis, but like I said the exercise is still valuable IMO to get some idea of the direction he's heading. That is the topic we're discussing. It's nice to have data, and the results match my eye test. He improved a lot pre vs. post injury last year, and has improved some over the course of this year mostly through an increase efficiency wrt turnovers.

Think he might be one of those wrong guys on the bus McD was referring to the other day.

Broncos run defense is no joke. You don't go into Minnesota and erase Dalvin Cook from the game without a good run defense. We're going to need another good game from Josh and the defense to win this one.

I wouldn't go so far as to say his rookie season has been a write off but it's definitely been underwhelming by any measure. Hopefully he can continue figuring things out on the fly this year. He has a lot of work ahead of him this off season. There needs to be some major improvements in his game in order for this draft pick to be justified IMO.

Our receiver group is much maligned but this man deserves some praise. He gets open. He has reliable hands. He'd be an excellent deep threat if his QB could get him the ball. I like Beasley too even though he's allergic to YAC. Knox is coming on. We have the makings of a decent group of pass catchers already on the roster. No need to pine after the next great college WR bust. We're better off finding replacements on the lines anyways or opposite Tre.

You're the one who made the comparison, not me. The point is, who is the recent example of a guy like Allen who was a little behind the eight ball coming out of college and then took longer than a year or two to show signs of being a franchise guy before becoming just that?

This was an underrated loss. We can probably overcome it with more max protect looks and running formations but at some point Ford and Dawkins are going to have to survive on an island against a good pass rush. I trusted Nsekhe. Next man up.

Elway meets the criteria though. He went 12-2 as a starter his second year and the consensus at the time was that he was an obvious candidate to be a franchise guy. Bills have won most of these games because our defense is good and because we've played a very soft schedule. I never said Allen wouldn't get better. I said all the franchise guys in the more recent QB eras showed glimpses of being great very early in their careers. So far I'd argue Allen hasn't shown that yet.