VW82

What a play by Johnson! Defense keeping us in it as usual.

Josh is re-living his worst nightmare. He can't do anything out there and now all he's seeing is the rush.

Brady just punked White. What am I watching??

That's bull sh!t

Josh is missing on a lot of throws early. Needs to be better.

I hate those soft illegal contact penalties. Let them play.

Part of your argument is that Lamar just isn't as far along as Allen is as a passer, correct? I'm giving that point to you, and saying perhaps Lamar currently is about as far along as Josh was over the last six games last season. Except, as a runner/scrambler he's currently on a level that Josh has never approached and never will approach, and that would more than make up for the difference in their games as a passer IMO. I strongly disagree with the bolded. For starters, this year Josh has more scrambles but for less yardage than Lamar: 41 scrambles for 299 yards vs. 36 for 399. I'm not arguing last year Lamar vs. last year Allen. I'm just using second half last year Allen as a passer to approximate what Lamar would do as a passer on this team today. Current day Lamar would almost definitely have greater productivity on scrambles (and RPO and designed runs) than current day Josh Allen if he played in Buffalo. I agree we're pushing Josh to grow and expand his game but weren't we noting after the Dallas game how we've been incorporating more run and shoot, roll outs, etc., designed to get him out of the pocket (i.e. tailoring the offense to what he does well)? What do you think we're not doing that might better take advantage of his strengths? I'd also point to Daboll moving to the booth and helping him with pre-snap reads as evidence that we're still protecting him and putting him positions to succeed, just like I'm arguing we'd do for Lamar. It's not like we're asking Josh to be Peyton Manning back there. I think Lamar would learn the system eventually, and we'd tailor it to him as we went along just as we've done for Josh.

I think your expectations might be a little unrealistic. They promoted Edmunds because he a) clearly has a lot of talent (as do his brothers), and b) the Edmunds family story was something they'd decided in production meetings to promote to help get people interested in the game. Maybe I'm a sucker but it hooked me. They also spent a Tre'mendous amount of time gushing over White. You listed Josh's worst throw but the pick was at least partly his fault too, and he had some others that required our receivers to make "tough" catches (and they didn't). The point is it wasn't like he was lighting it up and giving them a lot of obvious talking points in his favor. I'd rather listen to Nantz and Romo but Michaels and Collinsworth as still pretty good IMO.

I also quoted you directly on that. Most mods are decent posters. Take it as a compliment. You said: I don't think this is a good take. It's pretty strong and you're basically implying that you're laughing at the people who think otherwise. Besides, I think we've already seen Lamar in our system with worse players (i.e. Josh second half of last year). If Lamar was just dropped in without a year to learn the system/teammates would he be manipulating safeties every now and then like we see Josh starting to do? Arguably not, but I think we'd see him scramble and have some huge rushing games like we saw from Josh. I''d even go so far as to argue we'd score more as an offense than we're currently scoring. Lamar is that good. But I still think this is a weird thing to argue. What decently coached team brings in a new QB and doesn't tailor their offense around him? Sure you press the boundaries of the player and try to grow their game but mostly you're going to do what the player already does really well and emphasize teammates who fit that.

You make some good points but ultimately I disagree. We don't run a traditional scheme either. We run our fair share read option and RPO though not as much as Ravens. We scheme to get Allen out of the pocket as much as possible because he's way more effective there, just like Lamar. You're assuming that 1. our running game wouldn't look much better with Lamar in place of Allen, and 2. that Lamar would flounder with an increase in passing attempts. I don't think either of those assumptions are fair.

This scenario would require NE losing to Miami in week 17. Dolphins still have a shot at the number 2 overall pick. I can't see them going all out to win whereas NE might still have a shot at a bye even if we beat them. As for OP's question, the answer depends on how healthy Mahomes is. If he's still banged up then I'd rather see KC. Baltimore is just like us only better. Presumably we're talking about AFC championship game here.

It's been said several times in this thread, including by a mod, that Jackson wouldn't be anywhere close to what Allen is in Buffalo. "Nothing" is perhaps overstating it but so is what was actually said.

I think the idea of doing a player for player trade is different from discussing who the better player is today because you're taking upside into account. I can see why people might think Josh has the greater upside, and likely the better longevity too. Arguing that Lamar would be nothing without Roman or Baltimore's play makers, line, etc., is just dumb. Was Michael Vick just a product of Atlanta's system too? Guys on that level are special enough that they're going to find a way in most places unless you're actively trying to undermine them by putting them in a system that prioritizes their weaknesses. We're not doing that for Josh. Why would we do that for Lamar?

We already run read option and RPO. We already play design to get Allen out of the pocket which is a strength of Lamar's as well. Daboll would certainly run more RPO and play action. If your argument is we'd purposely not do that and play away from Lamar's strengths then maybe you have a point, though it's a shaky one. I get the belief that one day Allen will prove to be the better player -- I hope for this too -- but right now they're similarly styled players, only Lamar does it better. He's the much better runner and he's more accurate throwing the football (76% on target throws vs. 73%). The idea that Lamar wouldn't be "anything close" to Allen if he played in Buffalo is tough to understand. Baltimore has better talent around Lamar but he also makes those guys look better with his otherworldly play making ability. That would very likely happen in Buffalo too. He's going to be MVP for a reason.

Glad we’re in agreement that you can’t come up with even a single piece of evidence to support the opposing POV. You’re asking me to show correlation between opposing blitz rate and the defensive coordinator’s respect for the QB’s ability to get the ball out quickly. Really??

I say “look at blitz rate as a way to see if defenses respect Josh’s ability to make quick decisions.” You say “here’s how everyone performed vs the blitz!” I say “no just look at blitz rate. Their intent is more meaningful.” You say “glad we can move on from how guys did vs the blitz.” Nice straw man. Also, why are you continually bringing up Hodges when he’s played four games? That’s just as bad as the PFF tweet. BTW, as someone who lives on the west coast and frequently goes to Seahawks games I can tell you that one of the knocks on Wilson for years has been his ability to make quick decisions. You’re never going to find a stat that shows definitively what you’re asking me to show. There are too many parts and pieces which is why you have to look at a bunch of different things, quantitative and qualitative, and piece it together which is what I tried to do. I asked you to provide some evidence (any evidence) to the contrary. The lack of evidence that he makes quick decisions is just further proof that he doesn’t.

He’s been excellent the second half of the year. I’ll admit I thought we should have limited his reps going into the Dallas game given his struggles vs Wash and Philly lines. That might have been his best game, and he’s been all over the place ever since.

Way to misrepresent what I said to try and make a point. Brady, despite having virtually no one to throw to other than a washed up Edelman, is on the lower end of opponent blitzes per pass attempt at 32%. So even though Tom has no help and has performed relatively poorly vs. the blitz this year, teams are still afraid to do it (relative to average) unlike vs. us. What does that tell you? Like TTT, or commentary on the subject from former players who called our games like Gannon and Collinsworth who say he struggles with it, or Fred Jackson who said he struggled making quick reads after the Ravens game, opponent blitzing is just another piece of imperfect evidence that points in one direction. Do you have any evidence that points in the other?

Is it the perfect or only thing to cite wrt to Josh's ability to quickly make decisions and get rid of the ball? No. Like most stats there are going to be limitations. I think it provides some insight though. I also think the fact that Josh has the second highest percentage of opponent blitzes per pass attempt (44%) is a good indicator he has a hard time making quick decisions, or at least our opponents seem to think he does or they wouldn't be doing it so much. Beyond that, there's the fact that Josh has admitted it's something he needs to get better at. The coaches have alluded to it in press conferences. It seems to get brought up in almost every broadcast as a weakness as well. I'd say there's quite a bit of evidence it's one of the main areas he struggles with.

Here's the thing: I think many of the narratives surrounding Josh have been correct. He was extremely raw coming into the league, and too raw to win with last year. He did have a tendency to make poor throws at a rate well above other QBs. You're saying 1 out of 25. Last year it was 1 in 4 according to pro football reference. The next closest guy was Rosen at 1 in 5. Average was around 16-17%. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/passing_advanced.htm He frequently takes too long to read a defense. Collinsworth said he's last in the league in time to throw. Some sites have him bottom 10 depending on how they account for things like sacks and throwaways. He is improving. The national media types for the most part are acknowledging this. They're saying the same stuff you're saying e.g. 4th quarter comebacks, GWDs, timely throws, makes plays with his feet, etc. I feel like some posters on here bend over backwards to find the most negative view that still exists and latch onto that in some kind of weird inferiority complex. IMO very few NFL media, fans, etc., still think he outright sucks. They think he's about what the numbers say he is: a second year player who's getting better but not quite there yet, clutch player, someone you can win with on the right team, etc. As for the SNF broadcast, I thought they called the game based on the way it was played. Josh was unfortunately a little inaccurate on some throws (some more than others) and our receivers did everything they could to make those throws look worse than they were. Why are we expecting Michaels and Collinsworth to gush about 139 yards passing, a pick, drops, and some sloppy ball protection? Josh is a second year player who's still figuring it out. He hasn't earned that praise yet. You mention Mahomes. That guy won MVP. He gets the accolades because his team wins games of the back of his huge production. We win games in large part because of the strength of our defense, and so that's what they focused on.

Seriously? I didn't know that. You think he was indirectly defending his investment? The PFF/Duck stuff was funny but I'm surprised it got taken so seriously, and I'm a supporter of the PFF product despite it's faults. But that was a horrible take re Allen/Duck. Even my buddies who routinely give me a hard time about Allen wouldn't go that far. I enjoyed the SNF broadcast. Despite the fact we played a "national" team, it felt pretty even. They gushed about our defense. At least we didn't have to endure five straight BS calls to start the game like Thanksgiving.

I think he's perfectly suited or a back up RB in short yardage situations. Problems arise when you start running him on wide sweeps in the red zone (or anywhere really). KISS

I thought Wallace was pretty good the last couple of weeks.

Maybe I'm late to the party but it looks like pro football reference is publishing advanced passing stats now like on target %, pressure stats, etc. Unfortunately they don't let you rank QBs with them yet via their play index but if you're willing to put in the work it helps answer a lot of the questions we've been asking about accuracy, drops, etc. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm Currently Josh has an on target % of 69%. His bad throw % has gone from 25% last year to 18% this year. Progress!

Do you criticize people equally? I don't. Some have capabilities that far exceed others and are deserving of different levels of criticism. Hodges is a third string QB who was lucky to be starting in a Sunday night game. The grading curve is different.