BigDingus

I'd vote CMC or possibly Tyreek. CMC needs no explaination, but Tyreek was so good, it made people suddenly start talking about TUA as an MVP candidate last year... He's been on of the most impactful trade acquisitions in ages. A few years ago, I thought Cooper Kupp could've been MVP over Rodgers, but Tyreek makes a good case for a WR MVP too. That being said, I'd hate to see a Dolphins player win MVP, so screw him...

Ok, that looks miserable, yet the shameless, low-standard demon inside of me still wants to dig in... I swear, almost any form of chicken, no matter how terribly prepared or beaten up, looks somewhat appetizing to me if it's got traditional Buffalo sauce on it.

I've been corrupted... used to be all about naked wings only, but recently I've found myself enjoying breaded every now & then. Even worse, it was crappy Hooters wings that started this recent change to the dark side... A friend had a bunch of wings from Hooters at his place, and I was hungry enough to grab some. Despite being delivered, they still tasted crispy & hot, and I'm a sucker for that traditional Buffalo sauce smell. Ever since then, I've found myself flip flopping between naked & breaded. I may need to hang up my Buffalo card... If I ever start dipping in ranch, I'll be forced to become a Phins fan as punishment 🤢🤮

I'm not buying that Dorsey was the main reason either, though I do agree he didn't help. Pre-firing, everyone was pointing out the long history of McDermott coaching blunders, saying he was running out of bodies to throw under the bus for his mistakes. Never had it been more clear than after the Broncos game, where 12 men on the field allowed the another FG attempt to steal the win. Dorsey's offense looked inept, but it was another game blown by the defensive side of the ball. Even after the OC change, the Eagles game showed us that same issue again. Though we're riding high now, this team had similar issues even with Daboll as OC. Josh being 0-7 in OT isn't normal, or the equally bad record in 1 score games. And remember the posts in the gameday thread as the game started? People couldn't believe how easy the defense was getting carved up. The offense falling apart in the snow was nothing new, but it seeing a top ranked defense choke so bad was embarrassing. Now I do feel the inability to run hurt, but the Bengals had no issue passing all over the place. They looked great in the snow & on the road, Allen looked lost & we couldn't run to help. But that was a huge issue due to inferior OL imo. We have a lot of the same guys, but this is the first year they've all stayed on the field together nearly all year! The additions, their overall health, and the improved play (Spencer Brown especially), give us a much better chance. Let's be real though, Allen wasn't very good either. He wasn't good in the Miami WC, and he was struggling for weeks before that. The Bengals game was a total failure from all levels. The HC, the OC, the OL, the defense, the injuries and yes, even the QB. Hopefully this year will be different, but we still have to sustain this level of play & get into the playoffs in the first place. Take it one game at a time, and don't overlook ANY opponent.

I mean, he definitely flops, but you gotta take what you can get! Considering how many hits he takes & how many calls don't go our way, if someone gives you a little shove, may as well fall to the ground & see what happens! 😆 The only thing that looks kinda bad is the motioning for a flag before he even falls (or yesterday pointing to his helmet when his head didn't even get touched). Outside of that, keep it up!

There were surprisingly a lot of ways the Bills could've made the playoffs at 10-7 & not winning the division, but adding any more conference losses in the next 2 weeks would really hurt.

So the Week 15 playoff scenario I predicted that would still allow the Bills to make the 7th seed played out nearly perfect. I was trying to predict worst case scenarios that still allow us a path without winning the division, but we're already ahead of schedule with a win today! Week 15: -Cowboys def. Bills ❌ -Bengals def. vs Vikings ✅ -Colts def. vs Steelers ✅ -Lions def. Broncos ✅ -Texans def. Titans ✅ -Browns def. Bears ✅ -Dolphins def. Jets ✅ Now the Bills just need to take care of business against the teams they're expected to beat, and things are looking very good.

WHO WAS THIS TEAM?! I don't think I've been more impressed with a win in the entire Josh Allen era! Sure, Josh has had some amazing games, but to see this pass-happy team buckle down & establish they're going to run all over the NFC #1 seed (before this game)? That was absolutely INSANE. I don't think anyone expected to win like THAT 😂

If the idea is to control the clock & run it down their throats, Gabe is our best asset at WR to accomplish that. I'm cool with the 0 receptions at this point, as he's fulfilling his role elsewhere.

Even if we lose tomorrow & the Dolphins still take the division, we will have a really good shot of making it at 10-7 with 3 x additional conference wins. That's awesome! I just don't have much faith the Bills will finish the season with 5 straight wins (in a stretch against the Chiefs, Cowboys & Dolphins), but there are still plenty of ways if we slip up.

Just Just wanted to say, my very reasonable playoff scenario is off to a good start 😉

But I'm saying in the scenario I referenced, i handicapped the Bills a lot. The point was that within that setup, many things are way more likely to go BETTER than that. That's a bad outcome, where very few things go right for us. If any of those teams lose more than once, it's even easier than my scenario. Some of those games don't even require a specific winner and get easier week to week. I was planning for bad outcomes that still allow us to sneak in, not perfect scenarios where everything falls into place.

Whew, there's so many. But here's one pretty simple one: Week 15: -Cowboys def. Bills -Bengals def. vs Vikings -Colts def. vs Steelers (though Steelers could win & we still get 7th seed in this scenario) -Lions def. Broncos -Texans def. Titans -Browns def. Bears -Dolphins def. Jets Note: This is about as bad for us as possible, with the exception of Lions defeating the Broncos (but that's a very realistic possibility) Week 16: -Bills def. Chargers -Bengals def. Steelers (again, the Steelers could win & this still works) -Browns def. Texans -Colts def. Falcons -Dolphins def. Cowboys -Broncos def. Patriots Note: Made sure to give the Dolphins the win to ensure they win the East either way. Texans could definitely beat the Browns, but it's a toss up Week 17: -Bills def. Patriots -Browns def. Jets -Colts def. Raiders (though Raiders could win & it still works) -Seahawks def. Steelers -Texans def. Titans -Chiefs def. Bengals -Broncos def. Chargers Note: All of these seem pretty likely, barring an upset Week 18: -Bills def. Dolphins (we still lose division) -Ravens def. Steelers -Browns def. Bengals -Colts def. Texans -Broncos def. Raiders Final Note: If Texans win at this point, they get in over us. Same if the Bengals beat the Browns. However, if either team lost a previous game I predicted them to win, we'd still be in. Relevant Records/Playoff Seeds: 1. Ravens (13-4) 2. Chiefs (12-5) 3. Jaguars (11-6) 4. Dolphins (11-6) 5. Browns (12-5) <<<< See Note 6. Denver (10-7) 7. Bills (10-7) ***************** 8. Colts (10-7) 9. Bengals (9-8) 10. Texans (9-8) 11. Steelers (8-9) Note: Browns at 12-5 isn't what's relevant. The only thing that kicks the Bills out in this scenario is if 3 x AFC North teams finish at 10-7 or better. Hell, they can all have winning records, but as long as there's only 2 with 10-7+ records, Bills still make it here. Here's a link (sorry it's huge): https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547600~2~401547604~1~401547607~2~401547606~1~401547594~1~401547595~2~401547598~2~401547599~2~401547605~1~401547603~2~401547608~2~401547596~2~401547597~1~401547602~2~401547601~2~401547611~2~401547626~1~401547639~1~401547647~2~401547610~2~401547609~1~401547612~2~401547613~2~401547614~2~401547616~2~401547617~2~401547622~1~401547241~1~401547351~1~401547621~1~401547620~1~401547619~1~401547618~2~401547615~2~401547623~1~401547624~1~401547625~1~401547627~2~401547628~1~401547629~1~401547631~1~401547630~1~401547637~1~401547235~1~401547636~1~401547632~2~401547633~1~401547634~1~401547635~2~401547638~2~401547646~2~401547641~2~401547648~2~401547640~2~401547642~1~401547650~2~401547651~1~401547643~1~401547644~1~401547652~2~401547645~2~401547653~2

I totally agree. However, I didn't do anything silly like having the Bears beat the Browns or Bengals losing to the Vikings, unless out of curiosity (like my scenario 2 with the Browns going 0-4). The scenarios I mentioned weren't relying on that stuff, hence why I said I was trying to check worst case scenarios. Wouldn't be very useful if I was relying on almost impossible upsets. Scenario 3 is very realistic though. Again, I tried to give each team as many wins as possible, then only messed with the weekly matchups of those teams against relevant opponents. Giving the Bengals, Texans, Colts, Broncos etc. 3 x more wins AND giving the Dolphins the division isn't me relying on upsets. It's handicapping us.

I've just been focusing on less perfect scenarios, looking at ways beyond going on a 5 win streak to close the season. Some other scenarios include: Scenario 1 - Bills lose to the Cowboys and Dolphins. There's still a lot of ways the Bills could make the playoffs, mainly because a lot of the 7-6 teams play each other. Scenario 2 - Bills beat the Cowboys, but inexplicably lose a game to the Chargers OR Patriots, as well as the Dolphins. Pretty similar to Scenario 1, though a Browns collapse gave me way more results with the Bills making it in. Scenario 3 (BEST) - Bills lose to the Cowboys, but go on to win their next 3 games. Aside from winning out, this is the option that offers the most flexibility (shocker, 3 wins is better than 2 wins). After messing with the playoff simulator for what feels like millions of hours, you get a ton of ways the Bills make it in. You could have all 4 NFC North teams finish above .500, Dolphins still take the AFC East, plus both the Jags & Texans getting in, and the Bills at 10-7 would still make it in under most scenarios. As long as the Broncos *OR* Texans lose 2 x games, 10 wins is VERY LIKELY to get the Bills in. If not, teams like the Colts, Texans, Broncos and the Browns *OR* Bengals *OR* Steelers all finish 10-7, the Bills get in. We just couldn't have 3 x teams in the AFC North at 10-7 or better (in this scenario). Thankfully, a lot of these 7-6 teams play each other to close the year. Week 15: Steelers at Colts Week 16: Bengals at Steelers / Browns at Texans Week 17: Bengals at Chiefs (even if the Bills finish 9-8, a Chiefs win here with the rest of the matchups could still get us in with the first 2 scenarios) Week 18: Browns at Bengals / Texans at Colts Note: One game to really watch is week 18 Steelers at Ravens. If the Ravens & Chiefs both keep winning, Baltimore may be resting starters here, which could really hurt us.

But can they commit to running the ball? We rarely do.

Yes, Mahomes had 0 TDs his rookie year, 1 INT, and 284 pass yards. I only included actual turnovers though, not total fumbles.

Experienced Bills fan! Anyone laughing & expecting a "free win" should know by now to set such high expectations. We lost to the Broncos... the same team that gave up 70 to Miami. The Pats also looked like the worst team in the league leading up to our loss against them. I just hope for a win. Anything extra is icing on the cake! ******** Now that that's out of the way, you guys better win dammit! I'm trying to set low expectations, but my god do I want to see the Bills put up 50+ points as well! 🤣

I don't get how we have better odds than Denver, but I'll trust it because it's what I want to hear! 😁 But can someone explain WHY our odds are higher? Denver's remaining schedule is: 1. Lions (Away) 2. Patriots (Home) 3. Chargers (Home) 4. Raiders (Away) Opponent Record 22-30 Versus Buffalo's: 1. Cowboys (Home) 2. Chargers (Away) 3. Patriots (Home) 4. Dolphins (Away) Opponent Record: 27-25 We both have a 4-5 Conference Record, but they've got the head-to-head tie breaker... ESPN even has us with a 24% chance to win our division and Denver only a 7% chance... despite them only being 1 game behind the 8-5 Chiefs in the West. We're sitting 2 games behind the Dolphins, so are our chances higher because we could sweep the Dolphins & the Broncos only split with KC? What am I missing?!?!

It's misleading to cite Mahomes' rookie year which was essentially spent on the bench. Here's a more accurate breakdown of their first 6 seasons, including the actual turnover totals, from the time they both began as starters in 2018: MAHOMES: Total Yards: 29,231 Total TDs: 227 Total Turnovers: 71 Games Played: 92 Averages: 317 ypg / 2.46 TDs / 0.77 turnovers per game ALLEN: Combined Yards: 25,305 Total TDs: 212 Total Turnovers: 97 Games Played: 90 Averages: 281 ypg / 2.35 TDs / 1.06 turnovers per game Josh is definitely elite, but we all know the issue that separates him from Mahomes (aside from accolades like 2 x MVP's/2 x SB wins). That's not me dogging on him, it's just being more realistic when talking about what the media & NFL fandom references when discussing Josh. HOWEVER, to put in perspective how great Josh is despite the flaws, look how he stacks up vs others who have played a similar amount of games since 2018: Russell Wilson: Combined Yards: 23,022 Total TDs: 182 Total Turnovers: 65 Games Played: 90 Averages: 255 ypg / 2.02 TDs / 0.72 turnovers Kirk Cousins: Combined Yards: 23,884 Total TDs: 177 Total Turnovers: 79 Games Played: 88 Averages: 271 ypg / 2.01 TDs / 0.90 turnovers Jared Goff: Combined Yards: 24,838 Total TDs: 153 Total Turnovers: 94 Games Played: 91 Averages: 257 ypg / 1.68 TDs / 1.03 turnovers Derek Carr: Combined Yards: 23,930 Total TDs: 133 Total Turnovers: 88 Games Played: 93 Averages: 257 ypg / 1.43 TDs / 0.95 turnovers These are the only QBs that have played 90+ games since 2018 (or close to it in Kirk's case). With 1 less game than Goff & only 3 more turnovers, Josh has ***59 MORE TDS!!!**** That should put things in perspective when comparing "Elite" vs "Pretty Good."

It makes sense, but you may be thinking a bit too deep into how the officials are calling these games. The league certainly tells them which penalties should be prioritized or what needs to be scrutinized more often, but I still don't buy that the refs going into games actively looking to swing certain calls to favor individuals. Little biases & preferences may slip in, so I agree that Allen may get the benefit of the doubt in that regard, but I don't think the league is saying "we want Buffalo in the playoffs," and telling officials to swallow whistles that favor us, throw flags to help the Bills extend drives, or anything of that nature.

He's been a godsend. When the defense was reeling with injuries & the secondary was falling apart, he stepped in & has helped steady the ship. Living in the Dallas market, I've been jealous & irritated each week hearing about how elite Gilmore has been, and how the Cowboys only had to give up a 5th to get him. Then Douglas came along & soothed that pain. He's 4 years younger, has a lighter contract, and has stepped up in a huge way. Overall, I'd much rather have Douglas at this point in their careers, even if Gilmore is having great year. Instructions unclear. I am now paying $25 a month subscribed to PFF. Please send help.

I totally forgot about that! Yeah, I'm sure that's a difficult adjustment, though they host plenty of other sports there. The NFL is demanding though, and that could certainly be a reason players don't want to go there.

Why does Mexico City keep getting passed up? I feel if there's anywhere you'd want to host an international game, it'd be a market in the same hemisphere & shares timezones with existing teams. I get Mexico isn't the richest country, but it's a sports-hungry country that now shares a huge amount of family & culture between itself & the US. Just seems like it'd be easier on the players, more likely to succeed in attracting new fans, and not separated by such a huge distance.

EXACTLY. That's why there's no point in hoping we Bills can singlehandedly change the narrative. Josh would need to miraculously stop throwing INTs for a several games, while also somehow pulling this team to the playoffs. That's the only hope of him seriously being in the conversation. Dak would also have to fall apart. 30 TDs to 6 INTs looks too good, especially given Dallas' record. Purdy & Lamar are also way up there. The Bills at 7-6 and Josh already tying his moat INTs in a season isn't getting him there.