BigDingus

Whew, there's so many. But here's one pretty simple one: Week 15: -Cowboys def. Bills -Bengals def. vs Vikings -Colts def. vs Steelers (though Steelers could win & we still get 7th seed in this scenario) -Lions def. Broncos -Texans def. Titans -Browns def. Bears -Dolphins def. Jets Note: This is about as bad for us as possible, with the exception of Lions defeating the Broncos (but that's a very realistic possibility) Week 16: -Bills def. Chargers -Bengals def. Steelers (again, the Steelers could win & this still works) -Browns def. Texans -Colts def. Falcons -Dolphins def. Cowboys -Broncos def. Patriots Note: Made sure to give the Dolphins the win to ensure they win the East either way. Texans could definitely beat the Browns, but it's a toss up Week 17: -Bills def. Patriots -Browns def. Jets -Colts def. Raiders (though Raiders could win & it still works) -Seahawks def. Steelers -Texans def. Titans -Chiefs def. Bengals -Broncos def. Chargers Note: All of these seem pretty likely, barring an upset Week 18: -Bills def. Dolphins (we still lose division) -Ravens def. Steelers -Browns def. Bengals -Colts def. Texans -Broncos def. Raiders Final Note: If Texans win at this point, they get in over us. Same if the Bengals beat the Browns. However, if either team lost a previous game I predicted them to win, we'd still be in. Relevant Records/Playoff Seeds: 1. Ravens (13-4) 2. Chiefs (12-5) 3. Jaguars (11-6) 4. Dolphins (11-6) 5. Browns (12-5) <<<< See Note 6. Denver (10-7) 7. Bills (10-7) ***************** 8. Colts (10-7) 9. Bengals (9-8) 10. Texans (9-8) 11. Steelers (8-9) Note: Browns at 12-5 isn't what's relevant. The only thing that kicks the Bills out in this scenario is if 3 x AFC North teams finish at 10-7 or better. Hell, they can all have winning records, but as long as there's only 2 with 10-7+ records, Bills still make it here. Here's a link (sorry it's huge): https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547600~2~401547604~1~401547607~2~401547606~1~401547594~1~401547595~2~401547598~2~401547599~2~401547605~1~401547603~2~401547608~2~401547596~2~401547597~1~401547602~2~401547601~2~401547611~2~401547626~1~401547639~1~401547647~2~401547610~2~401547609~1~401547612~2~401547613~2~401547614~2~401547616~2~401547617~2~401547622~1~401547241~1~401547351~1~401547621~1~401547620~1~401547619~1~401547618~2~401547615~2~401547623~1~401547624~1~401547625~1~401547627~2~401547628~1~401547629~1~401547631~1~401547630~1~401547637~1~401547235~1~401547636~1~401547632~2~401547633~1~401547634~1~401547635~2~401547638~2~401547646~2~401547641~2~401547648~2~401547640~2~401547642~1~401547650~2~401547651~1~401547643~1~401547644~1~401547652~2~401547645~2~401547653~2

I totally agree. However, I didn't do anything silly like having the Bears beat the Browns or Bengals losing to the Vikings, unless out of curiosity (like my scenario 2 with the Browns going 0-4). The scenarios I mentioned weren't relying on that stuff, hence why I said I was trying to check worst case scenarios. Wouldn't be very useful if I was relying on almost impossible upsets. Scenario 3 is very realistic though. Again, I tried to give each team as many wins as possible, then only messed with the weekly matchups of those teams against relevant opponents. Giving the Bengals, Texans, Colts, Broncos etc. 3 x more wins AND giving the Dolphins the division isn't me relying on upsets. It's handicapping us.

I've just been focusing on less perfect scenarios, looking at ways beyond going on a 5 win streak to close the season. Some other scenarios include: Scenario 1 - Bills lose to the Cowboys and Dolphins. There's still a lot of ways the Bills could make the playoffs, mainly because a lot of the 7-6 teams play each other. Scenario 2 - Bills beat the Cowboys, but inexplicably lose a game to the Chargers OR Patriots, as well as the Dolphins. Pretty similar to Scenario 1, though a Browns collapse gave me way more results with the Bills making it in. Scenario 3 (BEST) - Bills lose to the Cowboys, but go on to win their next 3 games. Aside from winning out, this is the option that offers the most flexibility (shocker, 3 wins is better than 2 wins). After messing with the playoff simulator for what feels like millions of hours, you get a ton of ways the Bills make it in. You could have all 4 NFC North teams finish above .500, Dolphins still take the AFC East, plus both the Jags & Texans getting in, and the Bills at 10-7 would still make it in under most scenarios. As long as the Broncos *OR* Texans lose 2 x games, 10 wins is VERY LIKELY to get the Bills in. If not, teams like the Colts, Texans, Broncos and the Browns *OR* Bengals *OR* Steelers all finish 10-7, the Bills get in. We just couldn't have 3 x teams in the AFC North at 10-7 or better (in this scenario). Thankfully, a lot of these 7-6 teams play each other to close the year. Week 15: Steelers at Colts Week 16: Bengals at Steelers / Browns at Texans Week 17: Bengals at Chiefs (even if the Bills finish 9-8, a Chiefs win here with the rest of the matchups could still get us in with the first 2 scenarios) Week 18: Browns at Bengals / Texans at Colts Note: One game to really watch is week 18 Steelers at Ravens. If the Ravens & Chiefs both keep winning, Baltimore may be resting starters here, which could really hurt us.

But can they commit to running the ball? We rarely do.

Yes, Mahomes had 0 TDs his rookie year, 1 INT, and 284 pass yards. I only included actual turnovers though, not total fumbles.

Experienced Bills fan! Anyone laughing & expecting a "free win" should know by now to set such high expectations. We lost to the Broncos... the same team that gave up 70 to Miami. The Pats also looked like the worst team in the league leading up to our loss against them. I just hope for a win. Anything extra is icing on the cake! ******** Now that that's out of the way, you guys better win dammit! I'm trying to set low expectations, but my god do I want to see the Bills put up 50+ points as well! 🤣

I don't get how we have better odds than Denver, but I'll trust it because it's what I want to hear! 😁 But can someone explain WHY our odds are higher? Denver's remaining schedule is: 1. Lions (Away) 2. Patriots (Home) 3. Chargers (Home) 4. Raiders (Away) Opponent Record 22-30 Versus Buffalo's: 1. Cowboys (Home) 2. Chargers (Away) 3. Patriots (Home) 4. Dolphins (Away) Opponent Record: 27-25 We both have a 4-5 Conference Record, but they've got the head-to-head tie breaker... ESPN even has us with a 24% chance to win our division and Denver only a 7% chance... despite them only being 1 game behind the 8-5 Chiefs in the West. We're sitting 2 games behind the Dolphins, so are our chances higher because we could sweep the Dolphins & the Broncos only split with KC? What am I missing?!?!

It's misleading to cite Mahomes' rookie year which was essentially spent on the bench. Here's a more accurate breakdown of their first 6 seasons, including the actual turnover totals, from the time they both began as starters in 2018: MAHOMES: Total Yards: 29,231 Total TDs: 227 Total Turnovers: 71 Games Played: 92 Averages: 317 ypg / 2.46 TDs / 0.77 turnovers per game ALLEN: Combined Yards: 25,305 Total TDs: 212 Total Turnovers: 97 Games Played: 90 Averages: 281 ypg / 2.35 TDs / 1.06 turnovers per game Josh is definitely elite, but we all know the issue that separates him from Mahomes (aside from accolades like 2 x MVP's/2 x SB wins). That's not me dogging on him, it's just being more realistic when talking about what the media & NFL fandom references when discussing Josh. HOWEVER, to put in perspective how great Josh is despite the flaws, look how he stacks up vs others who have played a similar amount of games since 2018: Russell Wilson: Combined Yards: 23,022 Total TDs: 182 Total Turnovers: 65 Games Played: 90 Averages: 255 ypg / 2.02 TDs / 0.72 turnovers Kirk Cousins: Combined Yards: 23,884 Total TDs: 177 Total Turnovers: 79 Games Played: 88 Averages: 271 ypg / 2.01 TDs / 0.90 turnovers Jared Goff: Combined Yards: 24,838 Total TDs: 153 Total Turnovers: 94 Games Played: 91 Averages: 257 ypg / 1.68 TDs / 1.03 turnovers Derek Carr: Combined Yards: 23,930 Total TDs: 133 Total Turnovers: 88 Games Played: 93 Averages: 257 ypg / 1.43 TDs / 0.95 turnovers These are the only QBs that have played 90+ games since 2018 (or close to it in Kirk's case). With 1 less game than Goff & only 3 more turnovers, Josh has ***59 MORE TDS!!!**** That should put things in perspective when comparing "Elite" vs "Pretty Good."

It makes sense, but you may be thinking a bit too deep into how the officials are calling these games. The league certainly tells them which penalties should be prioritized or what needs to be scrutinized more often, but I still don't buy that the refs going into games actively looking to swing certain calls to favor individuals. Little biases & preferences may slip in, so I agree that Allen may get the benefit of the doubt in that regard, but I don't think the league is saying "we want Buffalo in the playoffs," and telling officials to swallow whistles that favor us, throw flags to help the Bills extend drives, or anything of that nature.

He's been a godsend. When the defense was reeling with injuries & the secondary was falling apart, he stepped in & has helped steady the ship. Living in the Dallas market, I've been jealous & irritated each week hearing about how elite Gilmore has been, and how the Cowboys only had to give up a 5th to get him. Then Douglas came along & soothed that pain. He's 4 years younger, has a lighter contract, and has stepped up in a huge way. Overall, I'd much rather have Douglas at this point in their careers, even if Gilmore is having great year. Instructions unclear. I am now paying $25 a month subscribed to PFF. Please send help.

I totally forgot about that! Yeah, I'm sure that's a difficult adjustment, though they host plenty of other sports there. The NFL is demanding though, and that could certainly be a reason players don't want to go there.

Why does Mexico City keep getting passed up? I feel if there's anywhere you'd want to host an international game, it'd be a market in the same hemisphere & shares timezones with existing teams. I get Mexico isn't the richest country, but it's a sports-hungry country that now shares a huge amount of family & culture between itself & the US. Just seems like it'd be easier on the players, more likely to succeed in attracting new fans, and not separated by such a huge distance.

EXACTLY. That's why there's no point in hoping we Bills can singlehandedly change the narrative. Josh would need to miraculously stop throwing INTs for a several games, while also somehow pulling this team to the playoffs. That's the only hope of him seriously being in the conversation. Dak would also have to fall apart. 30 TDs to 6 INTs looks too good, especially given Dallas' record. Purdy & Lamar are also way up there. The Bills at 7-6 and Josh already tying his moat INTs in a season isn't getting him there.

Geez, when Tre returned from an ACL injury & a year off, people gave him the benefit of the doubt and all the time in the world. But when Von comes back an ACL injury at an even older age (and with less recovery time), it's all "get him out of here, he's washed up!" How about letting the 1st ballot HOFer continue to build up game strength & conditioning, and hope he'll be at his peak right in time for a playoff run.

He's gone 9 straight games with an INT and atop the turnover charts again. Unless he can string together multiple games without a turnover & win out, he's not going to be in the MVP conversation. People can get mad about it, but that's just the reality, especially with a 7-6 team.

He's gotten chances. If he's improved, then sure. Give him another shot. I'm still salty Dallas got Gilmore for only a 5th, and he's playing fantastic for them this season.

What's wrong with being a DINGUS, huh?!

3 straight plays after a 49 TD that was negated by a really lame penalty. And why do people whine after a win? Who's whining? But there's only about a million reasons you could criticize a team after a win... You should understand this by now. Remember those threads early in the year "Are people really upset we're 4-2?!" DERP. Yeah, people were rightfully calling out the obvious problems... the same problems so many on here were in straight denial over. Turns out there was cause for concern, and putting your head in the sand doesn't magically mean they don't exist. So McDermott almost blowing yet ANOTHER late lead ***IS*** cause for concern. Of course I'm happy the Bills won. Josh especially deserved it. But being saved by Toney's foot over the line isn't really cause for celebrating like things changed. We were lucky the refs cared this specific moment, otherwise those next 3 plays wouldn't even have happened.

Look, we'd all be pissed too. Problem is the refs didn't know it was going to be an insane, perfectly executed TD when Toney was Offside. And it's not like it was an iffy call either. He was clearly past the ball. It's just a lame penalty to kill what would've been a hell of a play. With that said, I'd still be pretty upset if I were McDermott. Sure you're relieved they shot themselves in the foot, but you nearly blew yet ANOTHER close game where you had a lead in the final 2 minutes. Nothing you did saved the game. Toney saved the game. Hopefully next week you'll be better prepared. 🙏

THIS is a problem. Seriously.

It was driving me crazy that even after the free first down before the 2 minute warning, we wouldn't just ONCE run the ball to kill some clock. Cook was having great success, but they only gave him 2 more carries from the 3rd to 4th quarter? It's weird.

Need more Cook. Just keep feeding him the ball, and for a breather, just let Josh run. Cook needs more than 8 carries.

I really hope people start throwing it back in Nick's face that Herbert & "The Prince" haven't done as much as Josh had by the same points in their careers. He talked Herbert up all off-season prior to 2022, then quietly dropped it as he kept hyping up Trevor. Now Trevor is in year 3, and to match Josh, he has to finish runner up in MVP voting & lead his team to the AFCCG (both too late for Herbert). So if that hasn't happened, he should have people constantly remind him of that energy he held against Josh in year 3, 4 & 5, and do the same for them. But at least 49ers fans are realizing how stupid Nick can be once he decides he doesn't like a QB. His Purdy hate this year has put him on the Niners sh*t list 😆

To be fair, that exact thing was what nearly ALL of our head coaching hires said throughout the entire drought... and I used to mock it all the way back to the day of the BBMB! Always talk oh this hard-nosed defense & physical run game to compliment a blue collar city like Buffalo. Always complete BS, basically saying "we know we don't have a QB & can't adapt to today's NFL." Remember, a lot of fans used to believe this narrative. They'd defend our passing offenses being stuck in the toilet each year, saying 300 yard games mean nothing, and eventually accepted the idea that the Bills HAD to be a defensive, grindy team.

This put a smile on a face before bed, thanks 😊