mjt328

I think it's the complete opposite. Most years, there are only 1-2 legitimate/consensus Quarterback prospects at the top of the draft. Teams desperate for a QB have no choice but to swing a deal for one of those top picks. Otherwise, they will miss out. This year, there are 4-5 legitimate QB prospects. And there is really no consensus over which guy is the best. It really comes down to a matter of preference and team fit. In addition, the teams at the top (specifically the Browns and Giants) are playing their strategy very close to the vest. By this point, we usually have a pretty good idea who is going #1 overall. And we usually have an idea which direction the #2 pick is leaning. This year, the Browns have been linked to virtually everyone. They aren't giving away their strategy for anything. And nobody has a clue if the Giants want a QB or not. Same thing with the Broncos at #5. When you add everything up... it becomes pretty clear why teams aren't making trades yet. Let's say the Bills are specifically targeting ONE QUARTERBACK, and trade away everything to move up to #2 before the draft even starts. What happens if the Browns take that guy at #1? The Bills have completely screwed themselves. It's best to wait and see who the Browns take, then possibly deal with the Giants. Now lets say the Bills really like a THREE OR FOUR QUARTERBACKS. It's totally possible that the Giants and Broncos pass on QBs, and they will be able to land their guy with a much smaller move-up into the #6-10 range. Why trade everything for Sam Darnold, when you can get Josh Rosen with a much lower offer? I think ALL of the teams after Cleveland are viewing the draft like this. That is why you haven't seen anything happen yet.

Like the other poster said, I think the general idea of these posts was interesting. And it obviously took a lot of work. But it's hard to take your conclusions seriously, considering how subjective your definition of a "hit" and a "miss" is. Maybe it would be more effective if you came up with a concrete baseline for what makes a player a "hit" - such as how many years they play in the NFL, how many games they start in the NFL, etc., etc. I also think a GM should get more credit for hitting on a Pro-Bowl talent like Aaron Schobel, than he does for hitting on a special teams guy like Mario Haggan. Maybe give picks a grade like A, B, C, D or F. When ranking Donahoe as a GM, you also need to consider that JP Losman cost two 1st Round Picks, and Drew Bledsoe cost another. Right now, your system seems to be some combination of how good the player was, against what round they were drafted in, with a dash of how long they actually played for Buffalo. Then everything boils down to nothing more than a percentage of successful picks. It's not really working.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Virtually every QB prospect is a "project" when they get drafted. The jump from college to the pros is way too big. Almost nobody enters the league as a finished product, ready to set the league on fire. Very few NCAA programs are based primarily in NFL offensive concepts. That's a major hurdle. Very few players compete frequently with high-quality defenses. That's major hurdle. Very few quarterbacks have perfected their throwing mechanics at this point. That's a major hurdle. That's one of the reasons NFL scouts focus so heavily on physical traits. It's a lot easier to measure. You may not know how well a QB will adapt to an NFL scheme or mentally process an NFL defense. But you can determine whether a guy has the arm strength to make all the required throws. You can get out a yard stick and determine whether he's tall enough to see over an O-Line without problems.

Personally, I give Sam Darnold the slight edge (because of injury concerns). But Josh Rosen is a very close second. He's already better than most NFL quarterbacks when it comes to accuracy, anticipation and ability to read a defense. To me, these qualities have proven more successful than raw prospects with size/arm talent (Josh Allen) and athletic ability (Lamar Jackson). There are no questions about his size or ability to run a pro-style offense (Baker Mayfield). I understand that leadership is important. But many of Rosen's critics seem to be nitpicking personality traits. If he slides because of his political views or because he talks about beating Tom Brady's records, that will be the most ridiculous thing I've seen in ages.

These guys need to define the term "slide." Are they saying Josh Rosen could get past the Denver Broncos at #5? Or are they saying Rosen could still be available to us at #22? I would be shocked beyond belief if Rosen doesn't go Top 10.

WAS he the best tight end to ever play? Maybe. But what he was in the past is completely irrelevant. The guy is broken down, and isn't sure if he even wants to play in 2018. Any team that trades for him is idiotic. (Like the Bills constantly re-signing Percy Harvin idiotic...)

My thoughts exactly. Knowing some of the idiot GMs in this league, they will probably trade New England a 1st Round Pick for him. He will play about 1 month before going on IR, then will retire in the offseason. Armed with 3 first round picks, the Patriots will trade up for the best QB in the draft.

I don't buy all this negative press about the QBs. Some of these GMs are hoping to push some names down the board. For the last 12+ months, all we've been hearing is how ridiculously deep and talented this QB class is. How it was the best class in years. Now suddenly, everybody is so "flawed" - their chances of succeeding have plummeted through the floor. (On a side note, I also find it interesting how flawless of a prospect Carson Wentz has become in hindsight.) Andrew Luck-type prospects come around every 15-20 years. That is not a valid comparison. When you compare these guys to other QB prospects from past years, I find it very unlikely (especially considering the need around the NFL) that we don't see 4 quarterbacks in the Top 10 and at least 5 in the first round.

I think you assume that everyone is just harping on his completion percentage. And trust me, they are not. Ball placement is being considered. Watch any YouTube "vs" game of Josh Allen's, and I promise you will see multiple throws where he puts the ball high, low, short and behind. You will see him forcing his receivers to slow down or completely stop running. You will see him completely miss targets. Everybody has bad throws sometimes, but Allen very much reminds me of what we saw from EJ Manuel. The most accurate NFL QBs (like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers) have one thing in common. Muscle memory. They have excellent mechanics when delivering the ball, and it's identical every single time they have a chance to set their feet and deliver. Guys like Allen and Manuel always appear to be "aiming" their throws. It's not a natural motion they have learned. When players have not developed this by the time they reach the NFL, there is a good chance it will never happen.

I'm sure even those NFL scouts/teams that LOVE Josh Allen can clearly see he needs work on his mechanics and accuracy. They are just more confident in their ability to fix his weak points. If it's the Bills, I hope they are right. It's not necessarily about about those who "know football" versus those who don't. Every college prospect has flaws, and areas of their game which must be improved at the pro level. This goes especially for Quarterbacks. Personally, I would rather take the chance on a guy who has issues with decision-making (Sam Darnold) or a weird personality (Josh Rosen), than a guy who needs to re-learn how to throw a football. I don't consider the ability to toss 80 yard bombs essential to the QB position. But at the end of the day, Darnold could end up being the reincarnation of Jay Cutler and Rosen could end up being a locker room cancer - while Allen turns himself into a Pro-Bowler. Nobody really knows.

People use the term all the time. But I'm not sure I really understand what people mean by "develop a quarterback." Seriously. Every team has coaches who adjust/work on helping a QB with his mechanics. Every team has coaches who work with QBs on learning schemes, watching film, reading defenses, etc. I've always heard claims that Buffalo "doesn't know" how to develop a Quarterback. I don't know where this theory comes from. There is no evidence to suggest that JP Losman, Trent Edwards, EJ Manuel or anyone else we've drafted in the past 20 years would have been more successful with a different coaching staff. In fact, all of those players continued to struggle after leaving the Bills and never regained a starting job. Some QBs get "thrown to the wolves" in Week 1. Some sit the bench and "develop" behind a bridge/veteran. There are numerous examples of both methods succeeding. There are numerous examples of both methods failing. I think the key is getting the right guy under center FIRST, and THEN working to build the team around him. If you do that, everything will fall into place.

I would be ecstatic if we: - Trade into the Top 4 for either Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen I would be pretty happy if we: - Trade into 6-10 for Baker Mayfield I would be skeptical, but somewhat satisfied if we: - Stay at 12 and get either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson - Stay at 22 and get Mason Rudolph Anything less, I'm not sure I could walk away from the draft with confidence. I would be very worried that Brandon Beane "settled" for a lesser prospect, and was just afraid to pull the trigger and trade draft capital to land the guy we really wanted.

Ritchie Incognito retiring changes nothing for me. I was already expecting the Bills to take a step backwards in 2018, and I was not anticipating a return to the playoffs. Making the postseason was an unexpected bonus last year. But I did not consider it a mark of a massively improved team. We got extremely lucky with a 9-7 record and an incredibly weak AFC. In most years, we would have been sitting at home watching the Jaguars play someone else. This team has been in rebuild mode since the day Brandon Beane traded away Sammy Watkins. Bringing back guys like Incognito and Kyle Williams was nice for veteran leadership. But neither of these guys will be around if/when the Bills finally turn this thing around and become contenders.

Baseball batting average was actually the same analogy I was thinking of. The best players in the league only get hits 3-4 out of 10 times at the plate. NFL Scouts can generally take a group of 30-40 eligible quarterback prospects per year. Out of that mass of players, maybe 1-3 (at the most) turn out to be decent NFL starters. Even less turn out to be stars. The vast majority of the time, scouts had those guys pegged as the top prospects out of the year's draft class. And for every Tom Brady that shocks the world, the scouts correctly predict that 200-300 late round prospects will turn into nothing at the pro level.

EJ Gaines = Injury Jordan Matthews = Injury Preston Brown = Teams are not impressed by high tackle numbers. (See Zach Brown the year before)

I disagree with Barnell. All things considered, NFL scouts do a pretty good job of evaluating Quarterbacks. For QBs, the college game is almost a different sport from the NFL. Not only is the competition bigger, fast and smarter, but the offensive schemes are different and more complicated. Instead of getting by on athletic talent alone, it requires the ability to quickly process the field and make split second decisions. Despite this, NFL scouts are remarkably strong at predicting which QBs have the best chance at success. Any draft study will show that Top 5-10 picks having a MUCH higher percentage of success than picks 11-32... which have a higher percent than 2nd Round Picks... which have a higher pct. than 3rd Round Picks... etc., etc., etc. If NFL scouts were absolutely "terrible" at their jobs, this would not be the case. Every team would have just as much luck drafting a QB in the 7th Round or signing an UDFA, as they would drafting a guy in the Top 3. The NFL Draft also cannot be compared to other sports. Because no other sport has a SINGLE POSITION that makes as much difference as the Quarterback. So QBs will always be overdrafted. That's not because teams are terrible at evaluating. It's because they are willing to take a higher risk with QBs than other positions.

Still way too early. But based on the players the Bills actually took, I would say that our draft looks pretty good so far. If nobody takes a step back, we will have landed at least 3 solid starters. - Tre White looks like a Pro-Bowl talent - Dion Dawkins could be a solid starting Left Tackle - Matt Milano flashed playmaking ability and could be a good starting Linebacker However, the 2017 Draft MUST also be judged by the players we passed on. Specifically Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. The Bills needed a QB. The Bills had a shot at either of them, and specifically traded away from the chance to take them. After one season, that decision isn't looking so hot. Especially since we could very likely miss out on the top 2018 prospects as well.

The Rams basically have given themselves a 1-2 year window to win a Super Bowl with the team they have built. After that, the salary cap is going to force them to purge most of the players on the roster. The problem I foresee, is that football is very much a team sport. It takes time for players to learn how to work together. Sometimes guys fit and sometimes guys don't. Veterans are often set in their ways more than rookies. We've seen "Dream Teams" get built before, and it usually doesn't equal success. History has proven that Free Agency/Trades works best when it's done to fill missing pieces. Not when it's used to construct the foundation of a roster.

If the Bills really like Josh Allen that much, I guess I'll just need to trust their judgment. At the same time, I just can't understand why anyone would even consider him over safer prospects Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen. It logically makes no sense. Sure, I get the concept of "upside" if Allen manages to improve things like accuracy and pocket presence. But why take a guy with potential, over a guy like Rosen who already has refined those aspects of his game? Darnold and Rosen have just as much upside, but a much lower chance of busting.

I'm amused by anyone who watches the NFL and still doesn't understand the importance of a Quarterback. And by the way, nobody believes the 2018 Draft has a "can't-miss" QB prospect. The argument being made (in the trade-up crowd) is that the higher ranked prospects like Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield have a much better chance of success than guys farther down the ladder like Mason Rudolph, Luke Falk or Kyle Lauletta. And since we have the extra draft capitol to make a move... and since we have a monstrous need a QB... and because the 2019 QB Class is considered weak -- THIS would be a fantastic year to go up and grab a top QB prospect. Honestly, it's not a hard concept to grasp. For instance, if you believe we need a Linebacker - would you be more comfortable filling the spot with one of the top prospects like Roquan Smith or Marcus Davenport? Or would you like to fill our gaping LB need with somebody slated to go in the 4th-5th Round? Or maybe a bunch of Undrafted Free Agents? Obviously there are TONS of examples of Linebackers taken late in the draft who have found tremendous success in the NFL. But if we wait until Day 3 to draft a LB, many of you will be throwing a fit. Why? Because no matter how much you fuss about the draft being a "crap shoot" - somewhere inside you know that Top 10/1st Round Prospects have a much higher rate of success. The same is true with Quarterbacks.

The same can be said for any other position. The Rams were overloaded with picks from the RGIII trade. They drafted some good and some bad. But they were stuck in a perpetual state of 7-9, until THEY decided to make the "desperate" move up for a QB. How many picks have the Browns stockpiled over the last few years? They have exactly one win in two seasons. Making the playoffs does nothing for me. Winning the division does nothing for me. All I want is a Super Bowl championship. The chances of us EVER doing that without a franchise Quarterback are very, very small. I will gladly sacrifice 2-3 seasons of "just making" the playoffs, if it gives us the chance to ultimately land the right guy. Now... If the Bills are extremely confident in someone like Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph (who they can get at #12 or #22), then I would be OK without them trading up. But if they are just willing to settle for a lesser prospect - simply for the sake of keeping picks and drafting another Linebacker or Tackle - then I think they are being foolish in the long-run.

The Browns have plenty of reason to smokescreen. Any GM worth a crap will explore ALL OPTIONS on the table. So even if Dorsey is 99% sure he is staying at the #1 Pick and taking his top QB, he would be irresponsible not to listen to the offers coming in for Pick #1. The Browns don't know which QBs the other teams (Giants, Jets, Bills, etc.) actually prefer the most, except for the lies and speculation being put out into the sports media. Everyone says the Giants are only interested in Sam Darnold. But what if the Giants ACTUALLY want Josh Allen really bad, and are just hiding it well? By suddenly telling the world they LOVE Allen, that could prompt the Giants (or another team) to panic and possibly make an offer for the #1 Pick. Then the Browns move down 1-2 spots, get extra picks and still get Darnold.

Three years. Seems like an exaggeration. But just for fun, let's go with it. Let's assume we mortgage two full years worth of picks. We give up #12 and #22 this year, along with our 2019 1st Rounder and a few 2nds/3rds for good measure. We literally can't draft any top prospects until 2020. And this sets the franchise back a full 3 years with NO playoffs. If that gives us a CHANCE to get the franchise QB we are looking for, I will take that deal without question. Because once those 3 years of sacrifice are over, we are setup with a QB who can keep us in championship contention for the next 10-12 years. Maybe even a Super Bowl. Now consider the alternative. We stay put at #12 and all the strong QB prospects are gone. So we load up on the D-Line, Linebackers, Wide Receivers, etc. Don't forget we still need to use a Day 2 pick on a QB, like Mason Rudolph or Luke Faulk, who have a much higher chance of becoming nothing in the NFL. Our roster is awesome for the next three years, but we can't get farther than the Wild Card/Division Round, because of mediocre QB play. Then in 2022, all of our fantastic draft picks are Free Agents. We only have so much cap space, so we can only re-sign half of those guys. .... And we are back to the exact same place as April 2018.

How do you know the Giants like Sam Darnold? How do you know the Jets like Josh Rosen? Almost everything being put out this time of year is a lie. GMs purposely put out false information to throw the other teams off. Agents purposely make-up interest in their clients to push them up the draft boards. Reporters gladly report every unsubstantiated rumor they can find, because it gets them clicks and attention. Peter King's report yesterday (Browns prefer Josh Allen #1) comes from an "anonymous friend" of GM John Dorsey. Why does King think Dorsey is sharing his draft board with friends? How is King confident this friend isn't totally making the story up? How does King know the story isn't being planted on purpose? I find it embarrassing that anyone in the media can report something like this as news. Guessing is fun. And sometimes you can get clues by the way teams act. But most of the "interest" reports this time of year are a total smokescreen.

Hopefully the stories about him being arrogant will keep spreading. It would be nice if he dropped to #12.