Theres just not a huuuuge gap between the 10the and 20th team. You get a few bounces and some luck in tie breakers and you are in. We were probably more like 20 but got a lot of those bounces and snuck in with a weak conference.
I think several of the rosters from years past would be favored against this year.
thats what was so remarkable about being a middle of the road team most of the stretch and never getting in- statistically we should’ve gotten in on dumb luck a couple times.
No shame in that- several teams a year do the same and they sometimes make a little noise.
Mans people seem to really struggle with the difference between “more or less likely” and “bet your child’s life guarantee”
we we can be a statistical long shot and still get in without ruining models. In fact, that happening sometimes helps support the model. If you project a 30% chance and it NEVER happens, that’s strange.