strive_for_five_guy

Agreed my initial example was as simple as possible. I‘ll spice up the approach for you. Let’s say a home team’s advantage is an extra 5% chance of winning (55%). In addition, let’s say a higher seed is on average better by an additional 3%, per seed differential. So a 1 seed hosting a 2 seed gets an extra 3%, resulting in a 58% chance of winning (50+5+3). Then, let’s say the 1 seed’s path to the Super Bowl is to host the 4 and 2 seed. In the model, the 1 seed has a 64% chance of winning the first game, 58% chance the second. Odds of making the Super Bowl are 37% (even higher than the 25% in my original simple approach). Meanwhile, let’s say the 2 seed would need to beat the 7 seed, 3 seed and 1 seed. Odds to win each game are 70%, 58%, and 42%. Overall odds of making SB are 17%. Even relative to the 2 seed, the 1 seed’s chances of making the SB Bowl are more than double. And this still doesn’t account for the fact that the 1 seed heals up during the bye seed while everyone else further risks injury. Hope this further helps demonstrate why earning the 1 seed is a huge advantage.

Ah yes, I think that’d be one other possibility (improbable as it would be).

By my tally, Steelers are going to need both the Dolphins and Jets to lose this week, in order to still have playoff hopes by Sunday night. NE and Seattle both COULD win those matchups, although some good battles ahead.

I mean, Josh has been known to unleash pelvic thrusts on opponents.

It is the darkest nights that produce the brightest stars.

Cool stuff. Not surprising, but Allen’s Big Time Throw %’s are off the charts. Heading into the Cincy game, if there’s a matchup we can exploit, looks like it’s our pass rush versus their O-Line.

The irony is that Von only got to play those guys in two games this season. And who knows how long each of them will even be around!

Not surprised. It’s appearing that his “other commitments” are a higher priority than his play on the football field.

Yes, that was the re-sale price.

Yes, here’s a mathematical way to think about it. Let’s say every game is 50/50. The 1 seed has a 25% chance to make the Super Bowl, whereas the other six teams in a conference have 12.5% chance. This is without adjusting for the extra week of rest and home field advantage. So before even adjusting for those additional benefits, the 1 seed is twice as likely to make the Super Bowl than any other given team.

The prices I’m seeing on Ticketmaster are $700+ right now. The afternoon tickets went on sale, I was seeing minimum of around $1,000 by the time I had a chance to bid (which I passed on). So the prices have settled back down a little, although I’m not sure how much further they will drop for a potential once-in-generation AFCCG.

Nothing. If Tua didn’t say anything and nobody noticed during the game, who else can be blamed?

Apparently we never get the Mannings on our MNF games? Would much prefer their perspective over Aikman/Buck.

I approve your message.

His statement about 3 straight home games is accurate. We win, we at least lock up the two seed, which guarantees at least 1st and 2nd round of playoffs at home. But would def be better to up that to the one seed, and just skip 1st round altogether.

I agree about the ankle, and doubting that it’s still plaguing him. Some of his stats are pretty much on-par with prior season (yards/catch, catch rate), except that he has more targets this year. Maybe being on the field more and higher expectations are just better exposing weaknesses that have been there along?

Nice one, Pats! We need to beat the Bengals either way, so doesn’t really matter in my mind.

Lurking

Bears packing it in now

His concussion symptoms from the Packers game must be coming back.

Should be Beasley out there at this point.

Did McKenzie even think to touch the guy down at least?

And at least the 3 seed!

Just wait until the Jags have Ridley playing for them next year too. They’re gonna take over the AFC South for good, and be an even stronger challenge to the rest of the AFC front runners.