BADOLBILZ

I thought there would be a WR market correction a couple years ago but you need so many WR's to gain advantages in the passing game that there doesn't seem to be any decline in demand for difference makers. On the other hand, this is maybe the deepest draft class of RB's since the 1990's. So maybe the RB value uptick will be halted. Especially as defense's have to revert back to more conventional defensive looks.

Here is a more complex, descriptive explanation of the theory you are talking about: I love the part about Cuban coming back as the hero Mavs owner AFTER the Dallas Venetian, with Mavs arena inside is opened.

LMFAO

I don't think the comp is that easy. Mack had just 4 years of mileage and had barely missed a snap while Crosby has 6 years of mileage and is a bit older (and had a down year due to injury). Mack was also a 2 time first team All Pro and had been the NFLDPOY a season prior to the season he was traded after. Crosby has accomplished none of those things in 6 years. That's not to discount Crosby, he is a great player......... but I don't think you give as much credit to Mack's true value at the time. The NFLDPOY candidate pass rushers today(Garrett, Crosby, Watt, Hendrickson) are all grizzled vets compared to Mack winning it in just year 3. Youth and low mileage adds big trade value in the NFL. Not sure there could be a DL trade comp today that's apples to apples with that blockbuster. In hindsight Mack dropped down a tier after his second place NFLDPOY finish in year 6 so we tend to view him in a different light but he was the cream of the crop on the edge back then.

Yeah I wouldn't comp Pederson and Phillips as coordinators..........but let's face it, DC's are clearly the 3rd class citizens of the coaching hierarchy. The innovators come from the offensive side of the ball. And offense is mostly a young man's game. Hence, Davis Webb. The last real innovation on defense was the zone blitz 30 years ago. Experience is more valuable on that side of the ball, because even what we perceive as innovative on offense always has some kind of comp to the past that a wise old vet can reference with solutions to combat. Which is why Baltimore pulled 75 year old Dean Pees out of retirement to help Zach Orr get out of his own way. Wade Phillips wasn't innovative really, he was excellent at utilizing his personnel and coaching/teaching in a manner that allowed his team to adapt opponent specific game plans. Others have done it, but he was really good. I'd be all for having Wade around as a consultant because that's a weakness with this D staff. But as a HC Wade had no legs. If the table was set he could run with it for a few years. But that's about it. It's a different skillset. Pederson has the same problem in a leadership role. I could be wrong about what he could bring to the table offensively but I wouldn't want Pederson floating around in the mix in Buffalo, I just don't see what the team could gain from it.

Jermiah Smith to the U this spring, next. With teams running the ball more, it's probably a better fit for Kelly now than when he took over the Eagles.

No, he said there was "no buzz". Metcalf isn't a superstar, he's not controversial and he's been out of sight and out of mind playing on middling Seattle teams for most of his 6 seasons. There wasn't a lot of buzz last year and most of what you hear now is just coming from Seattle fans/media so unless you are following it, you aren't hearing it. Yeah it was noted that KC called about him last spring.....but with 2 years left on his deal and NSJ having not yet emerged as a star, there wasn't a great deal of impetus for Seattle to consider it. Entering his walk year I expect more discussion of an extension.....or a trade. Godwin is a slot receiver coming off a major injury. Deebo is worn and torn and grossly overpaid. The Bills need a boundary WR.

Milroe's hands coming in so small will probably be a disaster for his draft stock. 8.75"? Geez. That's smaller than Joe Burrow and he was considered the outlier of all outliers to make it with small hands at QB. He should have taken one of those $3M NIL deals this offseason and proved he could play the position better with those small mitts because it would be a shot in the dark to take him before day 3 knowing that he is such a work in progress as a processor but also might be a natural turnover factory as a passer. Will be interesting to see what happens if he blows up at the combine and runs like a 4.39 at 6'2" 225.

That's @Bob Lamb prior to moving to So Cal. Then he dropped like 50 lb's just walking on jogging paths and watching silicone bounce. Lamb is a few inches taller than Luka but if he could get under 270 then no reason Luka can't. Luka will get in shape. He just took the Mavs to the finals last year. He's literally one of the 3-4 best players in the world.

I wouldn't say there is necessarily "no buzz" around Metcalf being dealt. It's being discussed in the Seahawks fan base/sites. Because JSN has become a 100 catch receiver and is their WR1 now. And that transition basically happened when Metcalf missed some time to injury at midseason and when he came back they just didn't try to push the ball to him because JSN was flourishing. They might decide to become an increasingly defense-first team that tries to move the ball the way the Bills did this season. They have top-end talent in their RB room but couldn't run the ball......you have to think that they will want to find a way to get those guys the ball a lot more. I could see a big shift for them. Metcalf is a real trade possibility there, IMO.

The best part is that Boston sports fans are pissed. Bill Simmons is beside himself that the Lakers have managed to re-set their future despite seemingly having nothing to do so with. Boston pro sports fans have received a few nut kicks since the finale of the NFL regular season and hopefully it's the beginning of decades of failure. 🤞

Whatever TeddyKGB/Ryan L Bilz is going by now someone should probably do a wellness check.

Yeah I'd bet Adebo is high on Beane's radar. He was looking like a star in the making in 2023 but was banged up last year. The Saints were a dumpster fire. One of the more crazy stats on a team with a bunch of them was Adebo making 52 tackles in less than 7 full games. And somehow still graded out atrocious in run defense per PFF. I loved him as a fit for the Bills defense coming out of Stanford.

There was a big influx of talented DT's that entered the league between the Chris Jones thru Dexter Lawrence draft years and it seems like there have consistently been a few less studs entering the league each year since. A lot of those guys you mentioned are just past their athletic primes now so I suspect that's why the drop off. Williams and Simmons, for instance, clearly aren't as good as they were at their peak. Christian Wilkins went from the most active DT in the game to vanishing/injured in Las Vegas. Ed Oliver had a good season in 2024 and was excellent in the playoffs but a lesser regular season than the year prior for certain. This draft class is very deep in HUGE, athletic DT's. But they've maybe never been harder to project. The talent is spread out more, which is probably a product of NIL money. A lot ended up on teams where they weren't used like they will be in the pro's. And it was a weird year in college football with the ground and pound teams like Alabama, Georgia and Michigan having down years so not getting to see the top DT's square off in as many big games where the tape projects well to what they will do in the pro's.

Yep, but not because the players weren't trying to win or the coaches were intentionally preparing to lose. It was done simply by playing a bad QB every week against a first place schedule. And also remember that it was a league much more bereft of QB talent than it is today......it was easier to eek out a few victories with a horrible QB back then. Those Colts simply had a bad roster and having a middling QB instead of bad one's weren't going to get them to .500. These 2024 Bills with a "Fitz" level QB instead of Josh Allen would have maybe been a 7-8 win, sub .500 team. The post I was responding to tried to give the Bills credit for winning 15 games but they don't come anywhere close to 13 in the regular season without Allen and therefore don't get a chance to win 2 more in the playoffs. The Dolphins would have won the division in this scenario because they were effective with Tua on the field. Because he is well above average when healthy.

I think the focus has been turned to Beane. He was heavily criticized for not finding a WR1 last season after dealing Diggs. Not having that quality in the intermediate and deep passing game directly caused their exit from the playoffs for the second year in a row. He's not found enough difference makers on either side of the ball in free agency or the draft. By contrast, I think McD upped his personal stock with his coaching job this season. He got some heat for the ending of the Houston game but hit numerous HR's with big decisions in other games.

You can field a fringe SB contender with a bad roster if the QB is that good. The Colts proved it going from 1st place SB contender with Peyton Manning.......to 2-14 when he missed the next season........and back to first place and SB contending the season after that when they drafted Andrew Luck with that 1st round pick obtained by going 2-14.

Yeah the larger point is absolutely true. The Bills are at a disadvantage scheming against Reid and Spags. Brady could close that gap because offense is the side that's always innovating but there is just something about having a veteran DC. You saw it with Baltimore bringing in Dean Pees at midseason when Orr was failing as a first time DC. And Spags was such a horrendous HC that he is unlikely to ever get another look no matter how many SB's he wins as a DC. There was a time back in the Marrone/Rex era where the Chiefs were just slightly ahead of the Bills by the slimmest of margins. Reid was a better coach but the Bills roster was a bit more dynamic. Those Reid teams blocked the Bills from reaching the playoffs numerous times with some maddening regular season wins over Buffalo. But when McBeane tore the roster down and traded Mahomes to KC they set themselves a full two years behind KC and they've been a year or more behind them ever since. Both teams have been pretty futile at separating themselves(KC) or closing the gap(Buffalo) because neither has drafted great or had great success in free agency. Beane just can't find a difference maker for the defense or a difference maker to pair with Allen on offense.

Brady was a 4th year play caller in the NFL this season. Babich was new but his HC was the DC the year before so it wasn't like he was flying without a net. Yes they were grossly out-experienced by the Chiefs staff, who also had a bye week to work on plan for Buffalo/Baltimore matchups. A first time OC hasn't actually won a SB since Mike Holmgren with the 49ers back in the 80's. Ken Dorsey had a chance to break that streak before Allen's GF drama killed that season a week before Chiefs week. Otherwise the Bills haven't had a first time play calling OC since Anthony Lynn and you have to go back to the Jauron era before that for a first time play caller.

Fast but terrible receivers. Shavers couldn't even make it as a WR in college. Every team has a bunch of scrubs like that.

I will believe that Hyde will leave his sunny San Diego abode to be a full time coach when I see it. One of the more disingenuous promo's the Bills ran late in the season was Micah talking about he knew he'd come home to Buffalo. It's all well and good for a couple months during a winning season. Or even to live it as a player when you get 5 months vacation time in So Cal. Live in Buffalo 12 months a year at coach pay? Doubting it.

I like that Reeves/McDermott comp. It makes a lot of sense on the surface and you may be right that McD might never evolve into the type of guy to get the best out of Allen. But in fairness McD did let that dingbat Daboll run a wide-open offense and then he let Dorsey bomb away to much success in his first season as Bills OC. I think we have to give McD the benefit of the doubt a bit wrt to being not offensively minded enough. They drafted Kincaid and Coleman with their top pick in back to back years. That just hasn't produced anything resembling explosive, early round pick results. So I think Beane is more responsible for the way the Bills have had to play offense than McD. And it's hard to argue with the win-loss results since the change compared to in the few seasons prior. They've played like a #1 seed worthy team they just started out too slow before the change in 23' and the Chiefs went 15-1 in 2024 before the meaningless reg season finale. Since McD fired Dorsey and they went to a more ball controlled, complementary football approach they've been a much better team. They are a stud WR1 away from being far and away the best offense in football. I mean it's not like Brady didn't orchestrate the greatest passing offense in college football history. I just don't think the personnel has aligned, more than anything. Things were much different in Denver with Elway/Reeves. Reeves was not at all open to running a more modern offense at the time. But they also struggled to put the right personnel around Elway by not drafting all that well in the late 80's. And Shanahan benefited from better personnel work, for sure. Those late 90's teams were stacked compared to their 80's SB teams.

Yeah I view Pederson as a Wade Phillips type HC. Sloppy, no attention to detail. Pederson won that SB by taking over a team that had trained harder than any other for 3 years under Chip Kelly and had been at the forefront of the RPO under Kelly. People forget that Kelly with Nick Foles playing at a 27 to 2 TD/INT ratio and lead the NFL in passer rating at yards per attempt under Kelly in 2013. Pederson got the double bump because the players were ecstatic that Kelly was gone but also primed physically and schematically for success. Wade got a similar bump in Dallas taking over for Parcells and getting better results(until the playoffs) initially. Until, of course, his lack of attention to detail eroded the foundation that Parcells had built. The guy I would like to see the Bills bring in with some kind of promotion is Davis Webb. He seems like the obvious successor to Brady.......other than the fact that he has no actual play calling experience. Would be great to have him working with Brady for a year. Ronald Curry might not like that but I presume he'd follow Brady as his OC when Brady gets his HC job in that scenario.

If you are going to miss the Bills after the season then I would suggest learning to follow the draft year round or at least starting to get to know the prospects in late fall. We have our people who get angry at offseason discussion on the board in-season but it's great to be able to pick right up with offseason stuff right after the season ends. Eliminates that void entirely because there is a never ending supply of draft info now. I follow the draft(and college recruiting) year round but actually start ramping up more on the draft DURING the NFL playoffs because most of the talking head nonsense leading up to the games is only interesting if you enjoy having your buttons pushed by the media. Did anyone really have anything to learn from "expert" opinions on Mahomes v Allen version 9.0?