BADOLBILZ

So to clarify: 1) Your #1 priority in round 1 is just getting the BPA at a position of immediate need. 2) And you doubt that Justin Jefferson would get a $35M aav contract in this free agent cycle if he were a free? 3) And that Joe Burrow didn't set the market for a franchise QB in his prime with his $55M aav deal? 4) And you have doubt that Mahomes, Allen, Lawrence, Herbert, Love and Stroud would get $50M aav deals if any of them became free agents in this cycle? 5) As I said, Kirk Cousins at 36 coming off of a torn achilles is not relevant to the discussion. He's well past his prime. We are talking SPECIFICALLY about the draft and players who will be hitting free agency in 4-5 years. As I said, anyone not mentioned is probably aged out of a top contract or NOT a franchise QB. Who didn't I list that is both a franchise QB and in their prime? Name them. Baker Mayfield(?) who was a street free agent as recently as 2022? 6) Since you totally ignored the points about the salary cap increasing by 23% since Tyreek's $30M aav deal in 2022 there isn't any point of addressing the rest of your ramble. CMV is what something would sell for if it is available currently. As in NOW. The fact that it's been a couple years top players at premium positions have reached free agency is not proof that CMV for a top WR1 in his prime is still just $30M. It's ignorance to believe that.

He was just a drinking and golfing buddy of Josh not a legit NFL QB. Not that Trubisky isn't terrible but he has a separate personal life.

I think there is a good chance. For that reason I bought myself a Tre White jersey at Dave and Adam's when it hit the clearance for $16.99. The white one's make good preseason or early season shirt for those hot days. Passed on the Gabe/Poyer jerseys because I don't expect to see them in Buffalo anytime soon. Well, maybe Gabe in a couple years after he gets cut.

Good. Get rid of that enabler.

As @K-9 would say......."Would they like to have global marketing rights to the entire planet? Sure." But of all NFL teams we still have the largest confirmed stockpile of nuclear weapons in areas we are most beloved. And Canada too.

This is your chance to get back in @eball. Going to be a lot of people who won't pay those PSL's. And the Bills might let you get your 27 years of seniority back too.....1989-2016 right? If you send a written apology to Mr. McDermott for quitting your tickets on account of his hiring I will put in a good word for you.

Let me try to explain it a little more simply for you. Let's say there a 10 identical McMansions to yours on your cul-de-sac. 3 of them sold for about $1M in the last 6 months. Even though you only paid $250K for yours a certain number of years ago that really doesn't matter..........the current market value of your home is still going to be "about $1M". That's the way it works with QB contracts. Sure, as you say there are only 4 with aav's over $50M now. But that's not the current market value. Joe Burrow re-set that market value at $55M last summer. Since then the salary cap has increased substantially, once again. Beyond a doubt if ANY of Mahomes, Allen, Lawrence, Herbert, Love or Stroud(and perhaps even Purdy, Tua and Goff) were granted free agency tomorrow they would get or exceed $50M aav. So at least 10-13 prime age starting QB's are earning or worth $50M aav on the open market. I don't see how you can be so obtuse about this. It's obvious. Nitting over the definition of "elite" or "franchise" is pointless. Anyone who I didn't list is aged out of the top of the market or neither considered elite or franchise level. Since Tyreek Hill signed his $30M aav deal in spring of 2022 there hasn't been a prime age WR1 signing. The salary cap has increased by $47M from the $208M figure at the time. That's a 23% increase. That would project the value of a $30M contract THEN........to $37M in todays cap dollars. And that's how the agents for Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle are going to explain it. I don't think it would be a surprise if guys who are currently WR2's on their teams like Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith or Brandon Aiyuk got something very similar and they've never even actually been a WR1 for their team yet. I shouldn't have to explain it much more than that. But the truth is..........you are worrying about the wrong thing. My CMV's are correct or understated. But when these guys actually hit the UFA market in 4 or 5 years the numbers will be A LOT higher than $55M/$35M respectively. A LOT. What's important is the % of the cap these players eat up. The top players at premium positions EACH eat up 12.5%-25% of a teams salary cap in aav at signing. Sure, some of that money will get spread out etc.. It has to. But either way that's an astonishing % of slotted payroll on a team where you have around 47-53 players that actually count in the cap formula (depending how many league min salaries you have on the back end). Being able to have a cost controlled and relatively very-inexpensive player at one of these super-expensive premium positions is incredibly valuable. As is actually having that player who makes a difference at game changing positions like QB or an edge/island position. That's why you don't want to f*ck around just drafting "good football players" like RB/C/G/off-ball LB etc.. in round 1. Round 1 needs to be an upside play because that's how you get those players in most cases. It's not just "a factor". It's a HUGE factor. If it's not, you are doing it wrong. Now if the argument is "you can't expect every 1st round pick to become elite at their position...........the FACT is that you can't expect any more than half of 1st rounders at any of the positions to even justify picking up their 5th year option. So try as you might to mitigate risk, it's still a high risk. And nobody drafts a DE in round 1 thinking "boy, I hope he becomes the 64th best starting DE in the league". Everyone hopes that first round pick will become one of the top players at their position in the league.

28 starting safeties just got dumped on the free agent market in the last month+ it's a bad draft for safeties...........but the hell with it, who needs premium picks.......you only get to patch on-paper holes once! Let's use it on a devalued position!

To understand this you must be able to understand the concept of "current market value". To calculate CMV you begin with the recent contract comparison approach to estimate your player's value. The last "intact" young franchise QB to sign an extension was Joe Burrow at last seasons' cap figures and he got $55M aav. So $50M is just so obviously not "wildly inflating numbers". In fact, $50M is not even the floor anymore. Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love aren't as accomplished as Glass Joe but they will pass that aav very shortly just like lesser QB's have lapped Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Two full years ago Davonte Adams signed a $28M aav deal and a week later Tyreek Hill signed a $30M aav contract. Justin Jefferson is the next proven WR1 up and he will pass those figures by a lot. The former Vikings GM Jeff Diamond predicts a $34.5M aav.......which is probably a little light, IMO. So that will become the floor and other proven but lesser WR1's will begin passing that in short order. All of these players mentioned were drafted or acquired with AT LEAST one first round pick. Which tells you that by far the most likely (reasonable) way to get a difference maker in a matchup league like the NFL is thru the use of a first round pick.

Didn't the Chiefs put up like 9 yards per play or some far more outrageous stat against Buffalo and found themselves about 20 yards and 2 minutes of the Bills just doing what they had been doing all day offensively away from getting ousted? So what the Bengals did offensively didn't guarantee that they would dominate that game. What little the Bills offense accomplished DID. I know there are people who want to equate wanting a greater emphasis on offense into not even trying on defense but any NFL defensive lineup on any given game day of last season couldn't do much worse than the 1 actual defensive stop on downs(and the litany of chunk plays) that the Bills defense had all game against the Chiefs.

Ohhh.........so when the 2018 Bills had the lowest scoring offense the NFL had seen since the merger thru the first half of any season and the Buffalo media asked Sean McDermott about this alarming fact, to which he responded "Would we like to score 50 points every game? Of course." that was actually a literary tool? Not just a garden variety defense mechanism used to totally avoid actually giving a logical answer to a question by hurling some outrageous expectation that NOBODY had out there as if that was the only alternative? Ok, thanks Shakespeare.

Where IS @eball these days?

He is a wizard, though.........so there is that. He tricked Von Miller and Dawson Knox into betting on themselves when they already had the winning ticket in their hand so I guess it can't be ruled out.

Would it be great if he got 30 sacks? Sure.

Take the deeeeal Julian........

See that's where Beane would have to get a discount from one of his GM buddies like McDermott gave Andy Reid in the Mahomes trade. First, trade the 2 4th round picks and a 5th this year to get a late 3rd rounder. Then 28, 60 and next years #1 gets you inside the top 10 using the McDermott trade value chart(about 20 spots).........then you move up to Arizona with this years 3rd and next years 2nd and 3rd. Bada bing. But seriously..........you'd almost have to deal Diggs to Houston and get their two second round picks to have the juice to move up that far. You could trade Houston your 2026 #1 as a place holder and then they could swap it back for Diggs in June. I have no idea what kind of value Diggs would even have but, hypothetically, of course.

Man a shrink would have a field day with your use of exaggeration(like anyone remotely suggested All Pro was a likelihood) and the brand of dissonance that it takes to equate the lack of interest in a player making them a better target. Well done.

Yep, didn't trust himself not to gamble it all away.

You still on the "draft Dion's replacement" bandwagon? He had a good year last year so he got the extension but paying him doesn't change the fact that he had been trending toward needing to move inside for some time prior to last year. I've seen plenty of veteran players have an unexpectedly good year and then suddenly things take a turn for the worse. The iron is hot for OT prospects in this draft.

The thing is..........last years "positive" "improvement" signings were largely just lipstick. Latavius Murray, Damien Harris, Leonard Floyd, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Taylor Rapp were out injured or making almost no impact by the playoffs. Lotta' old, high mileage guys(including running Hyde and Poyer back) who ran out of gas or blew a tire down the stretch, some "WR's" that had had one "decent" season in 6 and a jabroni in Taylor Rapp who had to learn a new system. I'm not very impressed with these signings this year either.........but I DO expect Curtis Samuel to actually produce and be an impact player in January. He's a real NFL playmaker. Sheffield and Harty were a joke and I said it then. And I expect Mike Edwards and Austin Johnson to actually play the whole season and likely be on the field doing their thing come playoff time. The additions definitely skew younger, mid-career and promise to maybe not force the Bills to sign some AJ Klein type off the street to start a playoff game.

Yeah I remember Calais being viewed as the future potential #1 overall in the 2008 draft back in June of 2007..........and after a bunch of prospect fatigue and paralysis by overanlysis a lot of the draftniks were surprised he even went in the second round because they had started looking at him as an early day 3 prospect.

What is with this wandering off on a tangents when you are wrong BS you always respond with? Maybe acknowledge when you are wrong now and then so people understand that you are intelligent enough to follow the conversation. CB's salaries have fallen into the same range as top G's, RT's and LB's. It's no longer priced as a premium position. You tried to claim otherwise and used a contract % to prove it without taking into account that the cap had increased about the same amount. And they STILL got a 3rd round pick for Sneed. The fact that they SHOULD have franchised and traded Gilmore isn't very arguable. They went into that offseason $32M under the cap and with very little committed in 2018 or 2019. They were in a much better position to franchise and trade Gilmore than KC was now. Whether he wanted to be there in the offseason or not is COMPLETELY irrelevant with regard to being able to trade him. The player isn't going to rush in and sign his franchise tender.........he and his agent have every motivation to work out a reasonable deal quickly with another team before free agency money dries up. And that definitely doesn't hurt the value in return. The team has all the leverage and nothing to lose by tagging them.

Maybe @pennstate10 can give us some insight on him. I know Jerry Sandusky used to help recruit some of these guys starting in middle school. Edit: I apologize for all these Nittany Lions haters this post drew out @pennstate10. They hate ya' because they ain'tcha'. I think it's that.

They could have just let him walk and *maybe* if they hold their water and don't sign anyone to negate that value, get a comp pick. Instead, they definitely got a higher pick in hand........which (based on the Edmunds equation) could be more than a full round higher than a comp pick in the same 2025 draft. In 2017 the Texans traded a second round pick to the Browns to eat Brock Osweiler's $16M in cash and $10M in cap space. Those figures equate to $24.5M and $15.3M in todays cap dollars. So don't discount the value of finding a 3rd rounder on the street.

If what you are trying to tell me is that the Bills got about what you could hope from selecting 2 defensive players in the 20's of round 1 in 2017 and 2018 then you are correct. Which is my point. Like I said, Green Bay got plenty of good defensive players in that decade they eschewed drafting a WR in round 1 for Rodgers. But also, the Bills didn't get commensurate value even at the time of the trade. What do you think it would cost the Bills to move up 17 spots in this draft? Seriously. Answer that. Don't dodge it. Let alone a shot at maybe Odunze or Nabers......imagine there was a QB on the board that a team valued enough to pick at 10 to boot. The Bills got fleeced in real time........let alone what the players became.