BADOLBILZ

So you think gelling is going to turn Palmer into what level of producer though? I mean, I wouldn't be "shocked" if he averaged 50 yards receiving per game over 17 games but I think that's probably the higher end. What's "most likely" is what I always say with these free agent signings..... that they finish with a season not far from their career norms. Look at Mack Hollins. Despite all the PT he got receiving the most snaps of any Bills WR......he put up just 378 yards. His career range is mostly 200's with a high in the 600 range so falling in a bit south of 400 tracked.

Yeah using this kind of data removes the vague "feels" aspect that vastly favors the unfamiliar. Sharty-Sherfield syndrome.

Yeah I think it's very unlikely that Palmer is "great" though. Because he has already played 4 years in the NFL and hasn't showed any inkling of great. You don't see many WR's go from his type of production for 4 seasons to stacking up "great" seasons. Coleman, on the other hand, showed flashes of big play ability until his terrible finish down the stretch. 19.2 yards per catch and 18.8 yards per target. Ideally, for the Bills(and Beane's draft hit/miss ratio) Coleman elevates to being the top boundary WR for the Bills this season.

Agree with the friend. I saw most Steelers games last year and there was a BIG decline in general impact from Watt in games than in seasons prior. I was really surprised at the end of the year that his counting stats had him in contention for DPOY. Then I saw that he had played the most snaps of his career. That's basically why he got 11.5 sacks. 935 snaps. I'm not directly comparing the two as overall players.......but Von Miller had 6 sacks on 279 snaps and Bills fans were not impressed. Watt's stats were STUFFED by lot's of low juice snaps.

Based on passer rating when targeted in 2024(pro football reference) 108.8 Khalil Shakir 93.9 Keon Coleman 88.2 Josh Palmer 84.7 Dalton Kincaid 79.3 Curtis Samuel 44.5 Elijah Moore (191 of 192 NFL pass catchers) I don't know that there is less subjective way to rank them. They have different roles in a passing game. Passer rating basically measures the juice derived for the passing game when you are targeted. I think that's also a near ideal scenario for how many targets they would hope these guys earn in 2025. Knox only had 35 targets so I deemed the sample size(and projected usage at half the targets of Kincaid) was too small to rank him but he was at a decent 94.4. As noted, Moore was one of the very least effective WR's in the NFL last season. He ranked 191 of 192 qualifying receiving targets. Brutally bad. Shakir(47 of 192) is the only one of these guys who ranked top 100 in the NFL last year. 🤢 And for people who want Palmer or Moore adjusted for having different QB's..........that's not really the way it works. There were more than 70 receiving targets who had a higher passer rating when targeted than Allen (101.4) and Herbert (101.7) had as passers. Obviously Shakir is not better than Allen. The Bills targets beyond Shakir are all players most teams would want to be 3rd to 6th options in the passing game.

Yeah, DK is on another level than anything the Bills have but the rest of that room is washed up Bob Woods and some nobodies. Does look like the Bills are going to go into another season without any WR on the roster who'd ever put up even 900 receiving yards in any NFL season after going most of 40 years where they always had at least one WR who had put up at least 1,000 at some point in their career.

I think it's more likely that Diontae Johnson and Martavis Bryant were just washing out. Both had already been providing diminishing returns with Pittsburgh and were passing that 26 year old male physical peak age where the players who aren't taking care of their bodies start declining suddenly. Pickens is 24. Johnson and Bryant were at their peaks at that age. You know what WR teams really should avoid? Former Buffalo Bills. Bob Woods is the only one of like 20 I can remember that didn't disappoint or just continue to suck elsewhere. That goes back to your point that Pittsburgh finds WR talent. Buffalo does not.

Antonio Brown. Did I miss all of the other Pitt WR's that didn't do well that would make acquiring a Pitt WR a cautionary tale? Plaxico Burress immediately put up 1250 for the Giants and went on to catch the game winning TD to beat the undefeated Patriots in the SB. Emmanuel Sanders played tremendous in Denver. Mike Wallace had four 800-1,000 yard seasons after he left Pittsburgh.

I certainly did not see it coming. He was really bad last year for Jacksonville..........but for a team to eat $20M on a mid-level contract like that is a drastic maneuver. I figured they'd give it one more try and hope that the trash he put on tape was just a fluke. Apparently didn't take them as long as it did for Beane to realize he was a disaster as a WR2.

Like I've told you before, I call out your BS because you have potential to be much more than a checker-playing thumb fisher. When you hyperbolize and gaslight and lie it undermines your effort and keeps you at the kids table of the discussion. The casual Bills fan wants the answer to the Bills playoff woes to be one simple thing. It's not. They need to be better wrt personnel and coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs. Their WR room lacks difference making talent. To a lesser extent, but notably, so does their pass rush. Their young OC's have been out-coached 3 years in a row by savvy veteran DC's in Spags and Anarumo. Their defensive coaching has not been able to throw curveballs at KC or Cinci in the postseason the way Spags has. However..... They've thrown 6 significant personnel chips at the pass rush this offseason. Brady is more "seasoned" after twice falling prey to Spags. And they've brought in respected defensive minds from very different systems to hopefully address the lack of variety on D. It might not work but those are moves that should yield improvement. All they've done to address WR is replace Cooper and Hollins with a couple of 500 yard veterans who haven't produced as WR1's or WR2's at the NFL level. Let alone be difference makers. Moore in particular has horrible analytics. Coleman and Kincaid *could* improve but they were just terrible late last year. If they were defensive players they wouldn't be getting handed jobs back with little or no competition like they are now. The failure to address the WR issue is glaring. Beane knows it's the area of need he hasn't done the most at. That's why he is testy about it.

They can't go back to the mistakes. They already are taking a risk bringing in Moore.......who had 8 INT's thrown his way when targeted last year. Gabe was good for 6 in both 2022 and 2023. Jacksonville got the whole Gabe experience last year. He had some killer drops, errors and then would catch a TD after the game was out of hand and pad his stats. That's why they ate $20M.

He's "too" a lot of things that aren't good. He doesn't have professional level hands, he is not a good route runner and he was consistently not where Josh Allen expected him to be. They didn't "improve" the WR corps last offseason but they got rid of a lot of interceptions when they let Gabe go. Those turnovers were critical to regular season performance. You are still going to get beaten deeper in the playoffs without difference makers but we did see the difference not turning the ball over made during the regular season.

I had heard that Gabe was in Buffalo yesterday from an attorney friend........I don't know why, maybe it was just an event or something but then to hear he was cut today I half expect Beane to offer Wrong Way Gabe $6M or something to come back. He always finds a way to overpay former Bills.

You literally said it was a fact that the 2024 Bills were the 16th greatest offense. There was no context behind it, which is the first indicator that something is subjective and not fact. Then said your fact was a subjective take not a fact as if you hadn't lead with "facts". Shystie. And like I said........you claimed they had the "most points" in the AFC playoffs without noting that they played one more game than anyone else. THEN you said that you had stated points per game. That was a lie. Shystie I didn't dispute that the Bills scored slightly more per game. But it's ridiculous to take pride in a 2 game sample size versus a 3 game sample size when the other team literally outscored you in one of those games. Just clownish attempt to manipulate an argument(which wasn't with me, btw, you were trying to pull your BS on someone else). I am just pointing out that you are full of sh!t and regularly, intentionally use false information in your arguments. I called you out. As I often do. And you don't like it. So peace out TO YOU, shyster. 😂

Yep. Allen has had his moments where he's made mistakes in the clutch. But when they've failed in the clutch it's WAY too often because of the pass catchers. The 2023 loss to KC was largely on Allen and Brady (with an assist to Chris Jones) for foiling their idiotic play call after the 2 minute warning. But Allen made the play this year. If Kincaid just catches that arm punt it may go down as one of the greatest plays by Allen, recovering from being fooled by a great call by Spags.

It matters because when put in context.........they scored the 33rd all-time most points per game in the 5th highest scoring year ever........what that tells you is that it was NOT a historic offensive season. Not even the Bills best offense ever when you consider the point differential versus league average. That was the 1975 Bills. Your point about the Bills scoring the most points in the AFC playoffs doesn't account for the fact that they were the only team that played 3 games. I mean you can't even pick a lane. And after insisting your stats....err "facts".......were definitive proof that poor defense deserves all the blame for the team not advancing to a SB then you suddenly are asking for subjectivity on your facts. 😂

Shame on you @Mikey152 for fake-claiming a lie from Kirby. Brandon Beane himself has literally bragged about scoring 7 more points per game with Cooper as a defense for trading the 3rd round pick.

You said one thing.........said that you said another thing altogether because it didn't track........and now you are trying to meld them together in a form that doesn't account for the difference in games played in the last 4 seasons compared to the 16 and 14 game seasons post merger. It's comically shystie and further undermines your greatly exaggerated takes. 3 of the top 5 scoring seasons(per game) since the merger have been since 2020. The Bills have ranked very near the top in scoring in 2 of those years. They had a great 8 game run. If they hadn't struggled in Baltimore, Houston and NY because of bad WR play they might have been closer to the Lions. And those defense's weren't even playing that well at the time. Baltimore was near the bottom in pass defense at the time. Receiving talent on offense and pass rushers on defense have been the biggest shortcomings. It's just funny that when the defense was at the top of the league they were throwing the kitchen sink at pass rush but when the offense has the same issue.........high rank but a clear weakness........they aren't doing the same.

Dude you literally said the "16th greatest offense in NFL history" and are trying to lie now. Like I said.......the hyperbole is not necessary. They've had 2 great scoring seasons and 2 great points allowed seasons since 2020. They simply haven't been good enough on either side of the ball when it counts.

This data says the 2024 team was 33rd all time........in the 5th highest scoring per game season since the merger. https://mcubed.net/nfl/ptmpfpg.shtml Says the 2020 team was 29th........in the highest scoring season since the merger. And the 1975 Bills team is 50th. The 1975 team is actually the highest scoring relative to the league that year with 9.4 points above league average. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/scoring.htm

Well the lowest scoring 16 game schedule team on that statmuse data is 31.9 points per game............so I don't know if it's even 22nd. And everything is relative. 2024 was the 5th highest scoring ppg season since the AFL/NFL merger. If you weren't the #1 scoring team in your season don't tell me how all-time great you are. Don't need that hyperbole. They were very good. Their defense was also that good in 2021 and 2022. Point being........gotta' be that good deep into the playoffs for it to matter much historically.

Yeah you were confused. You can't compare 16 game seasons to 17 game seasons using bulk points. And since you chose points as the primary data.......it throws the ppg data off as well. Example........The 1975 Bills also scored 30 points per game(420 with an 8-6 record). They are not listed in the ppg, which falls below 30 when you get to 25th on the data you chose.

And like I said........the 2024 Bills were not the 16th best offense all time..........did you mean the 16th best "AFC" offense ever?😂

Facts? The Lions scored more points in the regular season......2.3 more per game......which is a significant difference. The Eagles scored the most points in NFL postseason history.....obviously? How were you confused that the Bills scored more? They put up 95 in the NFCCG and SB alone. So those were not facts you posted. So here are the facts: The Bills were second in the NFL in scoring last season. They were 1st in fewest points allowed in 2021 and second in 2022. Also another further clarification for things you wrote subsequently..... The 2024 Bills weren't the 16 highest scoring offense of all time. There have been at least 16 higher ppg scoring teams just since 2000. Including the 2015 Panthers that nobody remembers as an offensive juggernaut. There is no need for grand hyperbole. They have at times been a great regular season offense and a great regular season defense under McBeane. They've never been either when they've advanced beyond the divisional round in the postseason under McBeane.

The fact that you have to ask me is your problem. I can relate to those of you stuck in a state of suspended adolescence where you feel that your happiness is out of your control. Because I was a kid. But that semi-incarcerated experience is supposed to push you out of the nest. I worked hard and smart, fortune favored that, and I got everything I'll ever want at an early age. Entertainment is just entertainment to me. Being a Bills fan is a lifestyle but Bills football is just a hobby. I pay them a lot of money so I am entitled to hold them to the underlying promise that all pro sports teams make with their fans in exchange for suspending their disbelief regarding the team belonging to the community/fans. The promise that they are doing their best to win championships. Football is a highly competitive blood sport(by todays standards). That said, a SB win would only matter to me because it will be a couple more days to party. After the parade is over it's back to business as usual. No ring. No trophy. My mlb team and family school have won a combined 11 WS and NC's in football in my life. It's fun, you buy a shirt and it's something to rib other teams fans about. It doesn't materially change anything. The journey is the reward.