BADOLBILZ

They could have just let him walk and *maybe* if they hold their water and don't sign anyone to negate that value, get a comp pick. Instead, they definitely got a higher pick in hand........which (based on the Edmunds equation) could be more than a full round higher than a comp pick in the same 2025 draft. In 2017 the Texans traded a second round pick to the Browns to eat Brock Osweiler's $16M in cash and $10M in cap space. Those figures equate to $24.5M and $15.3M in todays cap dollars. So don't discount the value of finding a 3rd rounder on the street.

If what you are trying to tell me is that the Bills got about what you could hope from selecting 2 defensive players in the 20's of round 1 in 2017 and 2018 then you are correct. Which is my point. Like I said, Green Bay got plenty of good defensive players in that decade they eschewed drafting a WR in round 1 for Rodgers. But also, the Bills didn't get commensurate value even at the time of the trade. What do you think it would cost the Bills to move up 17 spots in this draft? Seriously. Answer that. Don't dodge it. Let alone a shot at maybe Odunze or Nabers......imagine there was a QB on the board that a team valued enough to pick at 10 to boot. The Bills got fleeced in real time........let alone what the players became.

My bad, you were mocking the idea that it was worth franchise tagging a player to get just a 3rd and 7th round pick? So the Bills were wise not to do so with Gilmore? Was that your attempt at a point? Gilmore was worth more then than Sneed was now because of the way defense is played now. Like I said he was the TOP free agent in that class. Sneed would not have been. There was even a franchise QB in this years free agent class. Times have changed. Those picks are valuable.........Beane literally crafted much of his free agent activity last offseason to try to get a later 3rd round pick in 2024 and it was a gut punch when they didn't get it. Back in that 2017-2019 range there were a lot of defensive players being tagged and traded for picks ranging from 1st's to 3rd's. Clowney, Frank Clark, Dee Ford to name a few. And in 2020 even a safety in Jamal Adams was traded for 2 first round picks after he got upset about having his 5th year option picked up by the Jets instead of getting a new contract. In short, the circumstances around Sneed's free agency are not the same. As for the contracts..........remember that at the time the top of the CB market was $13M the top of the WR market was about $16M(Sammy Watkins 2018). Now, the top of the CB market is going to be about HALF of the top of the WR market when Jefferson gets his $35M+ aav. CB is no longer paid like a premium position. They are being paid more like G's and Tackles. Sneed's $19M aav is just a million more than Tremaine Edmunds got as an off-ball LB. I was wrong about Woods being an All Pro but he was 13th among NFL players in in receiving yards in both 2018 and 2019. Making him a stud producer at a time when the Bills didn't have a receiver inside the top 30 in the league in receiving yards. So the Bills got NOTHING AT ALL in compensation for losing a top producing WR and an NFL defensive MVP. Mistakes were made.

What data leads you to that very specific conclusion about "deep" passes being the only decline in their game? The Bills were 3rd in passing yards and Allen lead the league in completion % in 2020. They have fallen off to between 9th and 11th each year and Allen's completion % and QB ratings have dropped significantly since. Do you NOT recall 2022 in fall? When Allen tore his arm.......'against the Jets......what a mess. He was hurling nothing but intermediate and deep throws for much of the season thereafter. It's not like they've been reduced to a dink and dunk by a decline in the deep ball. It's been much more than just that. Their WR corps has just declined in quality quite drastically from prime Diggs/Beasley/Brown and Davis as WR4. For much of 2020 they had arguably the most talented WR corps in the NFL and it was cited for helping elevate Allen's game to broadly unexpected heights. A stack of deep WR drafts have followed and caused defense's to adapt to the depth around the league. The amount of talent in most WR rooms around the league has only grown. Teams have followed the plan to put big talent around their young QB. The Bills, on the other hand, have gotten notably worse at WR despite that rising tide of talent league-wide.

Their passing game has been in gradual decline for the past 3 seasons. It's necessitated using Allen like RB2 down the stretch each season. Even if Diggs was still projecting as a top 10 WR in 2024.........and he's not, IMO........WR should still be the top positional priority.

Gilmore was very likely to yield a 1st or 2nd rounder in trade. He immediately became the top free agent on the market that season. By A LOT. It's supply and demand and the demand for shut-down CB's was higher then. Since spring of 2017 CB contracts have stagnated as the league in general has turned more to a bend-don't-break philosophy in the secondary. We aren't likely to see a CB win NFL DPOY again any time soon. But back then a CB could and did win NFL DPOY. Stephon Gilmore, in his second season in NE did, actually. And Bob Woods also left during that 2017 offseason and also became an All Pro. Guess how many comp picks the Bills got for losing an NFL defensive MVP and an All Pro WR? But yeah, mock the Chiefs for only getting a 3rd and a 7th.

Love the philosophy. Take advantage of the strength of this draft. If Worthy were in next years draft he would be the second WR off the board(after Egbuka) and maybe a top 12 pick. And it's not like Worthy is coming from nowhere he was tracking as a mid first in this draft for the past 2 years. And Amegadjie is a first rounder A LOT of years. That is how you use the early portions of the draft..........two premium position players who could be worth $30M+ on the open market at the end of their contracts. Not saying it's "likely" but it's conceivable if they play to their potential. A safety or a 1 tech DT isn't going to be that big $ value guy and this draft isn't very good at those positions. Historically, there is a tendency for lesser players to get pushed up the board in years where there is weakness at a position. Reaching for low ceiling, non-premium positions early in the draft is how you end up with a roster like Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey inherited. Now in terms of execution.........as much as I love Worthy as a prospect they are still going to need some size at WR later in this draft if this is the route they go. In the playoffs the refs put away their flags and speedy receivers like Worthy and undersized pass rusher like Ed Oliver tend to get tied up by handsy defenders. Power gains back it's edge in January/February. I've been warming up a lot more to @GunnerBill favorite Xavier Legette for this reason. He has the physicality to yank Jalen Ramsey by the face mask in-route and then catch the ball and score like Tee Higgins versus the Rams.

Regarding this list.... IMO........offensive talent(especially when placed around an elite QB) tends to provide longer lasting results. That's one of the reasons why you should invest MORE early picks offensively than on defense. The Bills are only now just "approaching" 50%.......that's still not enough. Go back and look at that list of Green Bay first round picks when they were spending a decade ignoring a 1st round WR for Rodgers. Some pretty good players but not a lot of legs. And I said it then, the Tre White and Tremaine Edmunds for Pat Mahomes pick trade was going to age poorly QUICKLY. Most defenders roll up mileage fast and then when they hit FA they are more likely to be let to leave. I'm sure someone will say......."well look at the Chiefs they invest a lot of early picks on defense"..........but they were balls-out investing in offense until after they'd won a SB. They had two 1,000 yard receiving targets in Hill and Kelce and STILL paid Sammy Watkins huge money in FA. And Watkins was a stud for them in the playoffs, including sealing their first SB win burning Richard Sherman late. When you've got a Lombardi in hand you basically arrive to the stadium with a lead in almost every playoff game against any team that doesn't. We watched it with NE for almost 2 decades. We had a lesser version of it with Buffalo back in the 1990's. Once you break thru that ceiling you need a little less talent to do it again each time.

Yeah the Steelers have the same kinda' setup and have been able to basically draft for the same defense for almost 40 years now. The Bills had that kind of identity advantage until, ironically, the former Steeler Tom Donahoe brought that to and end by hiring Gregg Williams and cutting Ted Washington. The day Washington got cut literally started the "drought" in motion.

Franchise QB's are $50M now. Elite pass rusher, WR, LT are $35M range now. Which is why I view round 1 as a "ceiling" play. I don't subscribe to the "can't go broke making a profit approach" to drafting that the John Butler Bills and current Ravens use. Lot's of small profits and not much elite talent at key positions. The Ravens personnel department is very efficient though.........they've been together a long time and do a great job identifying players that fit their schemes. Like those Bills they also benefit some defensively by being one of the few 3-4 teams. That allows them their pick of some good big DL that aren't viewed as favorably by 4-3 teams. And some cheap, disposable edge rushers.

It was worth it. He had a HOF career. The Browns ended up with little to show for it. Next years draft will have a lot of good receivers but nobody like Harrison. I agree with @Doc Brown that this package probably doesn't get it done. It would be a hard sell to a fan base having passed up on a player as famous as Marvin Harrison Jr.........who is basically presumed to be a HOF'er himself. Probably the most vaunted non-QB son of a former HOF'er since Kellen Winslow Jr.

Yeah, having followed the draft closely for almost 40 years and on here since the 1990's and following college recruiting on a too-often(daily) basis......I'm not trying to accumulate every draft opinion I have in the last 6 months prior to a draft. Let alone from the combine onward, like most here. So I've made note to observe certain things about TSW. Like things that trigger TSW fans to jump on players during the draft. I'll even make note of some strange people who are oddly insistent ON a certain player. Like the former Joe Sixpack, who was all about Metcalf and has been cussing the Bills out about it ever since that draft. You.......I made no note of at the time because you seemed like a random throw-dart-at-board-loudly draft newb who I thought would likely flame out on TSW anyway. Your takes have improved since then but your leaps of logic are still an issue. I had no interest in Ford or Risner, for what it's worth. Not because I thought they had zero future in the NFL. But the draft isn't about patching needs by reaching up into early rounds for guys who would be much later picks in a more average year for the position. And at a non-premium position like G or RT to boot. The early rounds are about laying the foundation for your team by getting value at premium positions that are hard to fill in free agency. You have to treat those picks like they have that value. You want a guy with a potential mid $30M's aav ceiling in round 1. Round 2 we are talking about mid-$20M's potential now. These are, statistically, your best chances to get those guys. The Cody Ford move was a total, drought era "we gotta' look competent THIS season or we might get fired" move at the expense of the greater good of the franchise. Made no sense to me given their job security. Guys like Cody Ford are available in free agency every year. Guys like DK Metcalf are not. So we are in agreement on that. I'm just saying you were carried away thinking there weren't a lot of DK Metcalf fans on TSW on draft day.

I think there will be future NFL starting RT's there still, yes. But I am thinking more day 3. It's a year where you can get a Spencer Brown level prospect in round 4 or possibly 5 even. Brown was all-RAS but not much film or experience when he got drafted. He'd have gone later in this draft, for sure.

Not being able to communicate is part of his meticulously crafted public persona.

That part is apparently WAYYY to involved for some Bills fans to understand. For a moment there I thought that the coaching staff and QB actually had a sound f*cking plan and were sticking to it. But NOPE!

Rotational DE in sheep's clothing.

Absolutely, it's a strong draft for OL. Need to bring in some RT competition to develop for Spencer Brown's spot as well for when he leaves in free agency on a contract that will stagger his haters.

So Shakir 2 yards away and having to slow down is open while Diggs being pursued from 5 yards away is.........covered? What's the argument? That *maybe* it's still 3rd and 3 instead of 1st and 10? They had literally stayed in the game by playing that style of football all day. And as for the ASININE argument that Diggs might've dropped the ball.........Shakir might have dropped the ball then too. Like I said, it was the longest air yards attempt to him all season and when he had the dropsies in 2022 it was on longer throws. The level of excuse making for the Bills decision makers in that situation is just comical.

Cool picture........where's the ball? You see the ball needed to be hitting him about a step later. Like a bang nine. On the numbers or shoulder, dead in the middle of the end zone so he has time to decelerate and get his feet down. That's not a back of the end zone route. By the time Allen got the ball there the play was dead. At this point in his career Allen needs that clock in his head to tell him when to move on.

Yeah I think sometimes fans think they are the only one who supported the selection of a player who was passed on..............but are largely wrong. Metcalf had plenty of supporters on TSW. And the point of time we are talking about is the draft itself.........not pre-combine or in-season wherever you are trying to move the goal post. On draft day, a lot of TSW folks were on the DK bandwagon. Including me, who wanted him in round 1 and then have probably mentioned at least many hundreds of times on TSW since immediately thereafter how stupid that the Ford trade-up and selection was instead of selecting Metcalf. It was boneheaded and showed a lack of foresight from a young GM. As a regime that didn't start out in 2017 with a young foundation of talent(they let them all walk or traded them) and who had made a lot of bad free agent decisions in 2018.........they really needed to hit that pick or risk being in chase mode. Which is what happened and that forced them to further undermine their salary cap situation by having to trade their first in 2020 to get a $15M WR in Diggs. But I digress....... Your insistence, on one hand, that Ford was a first round talent because someone else thought so while claiming to have your own take on Metcalf is perhaps an illustration of your lack of a plan/process wrt drafting. You either trust your eyes OR you trust Todd McShay or whatever draft rag that told you that Cody Ford was a first round talent instead of just a body pushed WAY up the board by a lack of actual GOOD options at the position.

Jeter crafted his persona. He was still going out and ***** it up in epic proportions.........but he worked to hard cover that up and threatened to limit access if anyone said anything negative about him. He's an assh*le and he really didn't want anyone to know about that and disrupt his status or revenue stream and HOF track. Ohtani is not "actively" crafting anything. Unlike Jeter there is nothing subjective/subtle about his game and he has no competition like Jeter had with an A-Rod or Garciaparra etc.. Ohtani just doesn't provide access. That's very different.

Yeah there is this idea out there that the throw to Shakir was the first read so it was right to just hurl that no-chance worm burner into the end zone. Whether Brady is to blame for dangling that nonsensical HR shot there or not doesn't take away from the reality that the throw wasn't open and the pressure prevented Allen from stepping into a throw. That's when an elite QB has to be able to take the easy win.

Sure. Because the lasting image of Tom Brady in big games isn't taking what the defense gives him in crunch time. It's not setting up game winning field goals or red zone TD's....... it's those deep TD passes to prevent defense's from tightening up on him in the red zone. How have Mahomes last two SB wins ended? With a PI call and a short TD pass........both in deep in opponents territory. Not with hoping to complete the longest air yards pass of the season to a particular receiver(as would have been the case with Shakir). You can disagree with it all you want but the play wasn't there to be had. The coverage was good and the pressure from Jones should have told Allen to take the first down. But he threw it anyway. I love having Josh Allen as my QB. And if he just provides tons of fun moments over the next 8-10 years that's fine with me. I'm not a finish-line fan trying to get one SB win before I die. This is entertainment. Jim Kelly had greater flaws and I loved having him as QB too. But if the question is if Josh Allen is doing everything he can to secure a SB win..........I know that answer has been no.

Yes, notably as a passer compared to 2020. He's a gamer and experience has improved him in some regards but he still makes a lot of bad "gunslinger" decisions. More than in 2020, when he was working to disprove the notion that he was a turnover machine, for instance. And it's not just throwing 3 interceptions to the same guy on opening night. He's susceptible to critical mental mistakes even when his focus is seemingly great that day. That 2nd and 9 throw to Shakir with 2 minutes left against KC.........with Diggs wide open for the first.........was just an undisciplined mistake that ultimately got him beat despite a largely brilliant performance otherwise. The devil is in the details when it comes to being the best or just another excellent one. Mahomes is focused. He's got a simpler life away from the field........his offseason life is largely about preparing so he's built a compound in Texas to train with his receivers there. He's on the hunt for Tom Brady's records/status. Josh is not at that level as a competitor away from the field and now that he's 0-3 in the playoffs and 3 SB wins and 4 SB appearances behind Mahomes I suspect that only disincentivizes him a bit more. It's not like Brady being great made Big Ben or Aaron Rodgers elevate their games as leaders. They just kept doing what THEY do. And never won another SB after getting their wins early in their careers.

I agree, that's a likely scenario, IMO. But he still can't be paying off illegal bookmakers on the sly. That's when he has to go to authorities first instead of getting busted in a federal operation. Gambling isn't viewed as the ultimate offense for athletes in other countries like it is here......so paying off an organized crime syndicate might be business as usual in Japan........but it isn't here. If this were a garden variety asian baseball player they would draw a very hard line. And with regard to "Meticulously created and maintained his public persona"? Yeah, no. He's hid from sight his entire MLB career. He cashes in on endorsements in Japan but here you need to actually engage the public from time to time to craft a public persona.