BADOLBILZ

Ohhh.........so when the 2018 Bills had the lowest scoring offense the NFL had seen since the merger thru the first half of any season and the Buffalo media asked Sean McDermott about this alarming fact, to which he responded "Would we like to score 50 points every game? Of course." that was actually a literary tool? Not just a garden variety defense mechanism used to totally avoid actually giving a logical answer to a question by hurling some outrageous expectation that NOBODY had out there as if that was the only alternative? Ok, thanks Shakespeare.

Where IS @eball these days?

He is a wizard, though.........so there is that. He tricked Von Miller and Dawson Knox into betting on themselves when they already had the winning ticket in their hand so I guess it can't be ruled out.

Would it be great if he got 30 sacks? Sure.

Take the deeeeal Julian........

See that's where Beane would have to get a discount from one of his GM buddies like McDermott gave Andy Reid in the Mahomes trade. First, trade the 2 4th round picks and a 5th this year to get a late 3rd rounder. Then 28, 60 and next years #1 gets you inside the top 10 using the McDermott trade value chart(about 20 spots).........then you move up to Arizona with this years 3rd and next years 2nd and 3rd. Bada bing. But seriously..........you'd almost have to deal Diggs to Houston and get their two second round picks to have the juice to move up that far. You could trade Houston your 2026 #1 as a place holder and then they could swap it back for Diggs in June. I have no idea what kind of value Diggs would even have but, hypothetically, of course.

Man a shrink would have a field day with your use of exaggeration(like anyone remotely suggested All Pro was a likelihood) and the brand of dissonance that it takes to equate the lack of interest in a player making them a better target. Well done.

Yep, didn't trust himself not to gamble it all away.

You still on the "draft Dion's replacement" bandwagon? He had a good year last year so he got the extension but paying him doesn't change the fact that he had been trending toward needing to move inside for some time prior to last year. I've seen plenty of veteran players have an unexpectedly good year and then suddenly things take a turn for the worse. The iron is hot for OT prospects in this draft.

The thing is..........last years "positive" "improvement" signings were largely just lipstick. Latavius Murray, Damien Harris, Leonard Floyd, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Taylor Rapp were out injured or making almost no impact by the playoffs. Lotta' old, high mileage guys(including running Hyde and Poyer back) who ran out of gas or blew a tire down the stretch, some "WR's" that had had one "decent" season in 6 and a jabroni in Taylor Rapp who had to learn a new system. I'm not very impressed with these signings this year either.........but I DO expect Curtis Samuel to actually produce and be an impact player in January. He's a real NFL playmaker. Sheffield and Harty were a joke and I said it then. And I expect Mike Edwards and Austin Johnson to actually play the whole season and likely be on the field doing their thing come playoff time. The additions definitely skew younger, mid-career and promise to maybe not force the Bills to sign some AJ Klein type off the street to start a playoff game.

Yeah I remember Calais being viewed as the future potential #1 overall in the 2008 draft back in June of 2007..........and after a bunch of prospect fatigue and paralysis by overanlysis a lot of the draftniks were surprised he even went in the second round because they had started looking at him as an early day 3 prospect.

What is with this wandering off on a tangents when you are wrong BS you always respond with? Maybe acknowledge when you are wrong now and then so people understand that you are intelligent enough to follow the conversation. CB's salaries have fallen into the same range as top G's, RT's and LB's. It's no longer priced as a premium position. You tried to claim otherwise and used a contract % to prove it without taking into account that the cap had increased about the same amount. And they STILL got a 3rd round pick for Sneed. The fact that they SHOULD have franchised and traded Gilmore isn't very arguable. They went into that offseason $32M under the cap and with very little committed in 2018 or 2019. They were in a much better position to franchise and trade Gilmore than KC was now. Whether he wanted to be there in the offseason or not is COMPLETELY irrelevant with regard to being able to trade him. The player isn't going to rush in and sign his franchise tender.........he and his agent have every motivation to work out a reasonable deal quickly with another team before free agency money dries up. And that definitely doesn't hurt the value in return. The team has all the leverage and nothing to lose by tagging them.

Maybe @pennstate10 can give us some insight on him. I know Jerry Sandusky used to help recruit some of these guys starting in middle school. Edit: I apologize for all these Nittany Lions haters this post drew out @pennstate10. They hate ya' because they ain'tcha'. I think it's that.

They could have just let him walk and *maybe* if they hold their water and don't sign anyone to negate that value, get a comp pick. Instead, they definitely got a higher pick in hand........which (based on the Edmunds equation) could be more than a full round higher than a comp pick in the same 2025 draft. In 2017 the Texans traded a second round pick to the Browns to eat Brock Osweiler's $16M in cash and $10M in cap space. Those figures equate to $24.5M and $15.3M in todays cap dollars. So don't discount the value of finding a 3rd rounder on the street.

If what you are trying to tell me is that the Bills got about what you could hope from selecting 2 defensive players in the 20's of round 1 in 2017 and 2018 then you are correct. Which is my point. Like I said, Green Bay got plenty of good defensive players in that decade they eschewed drafting a WR in round 1 for Rodgers. But also, the Bills didn't get commensurate value even at the time of the trade. What do you think it would cost the Bills to move up 17 spots in this draft? Seriously. Answer that. Don't dodge it. Let alone a shot at maybe Odunze or Nabers......imagine there was a QB on the board that a team valued enough to pick at 10 to boot. The Bills got fleeced in real time........let alone what the players became.

My bad, you were mocking the idea that it was worth franchise tagging a player to get just a 3rd and 7th round pick? So the Bills were wise not to do so with Gilmore? Was that your attempt at a point? Gilmore was worth more then than Sneed was now because of the way defense is played now. Like I said he was the TOP free agent in that class. Sneed would not have been. There was even a franchise QB in this years free agent class. Times have changed. Those picks are valuable.........Beane literally crafted much of his free agent activity last offseason to try to get a later 3rd round pick in 2024 and it was a gut punch when they didn't get it. Back in that 2017-2019 range there were a lot of defensive players being tagged and traded for picks ranging from 1st's to 3rd's. Clowney, Frank Clark, Dee Ford to name a few. And in 2020 even a safety in Jamal Adams was traded for 2 first round picks after he got upset about having his 5th year option picked up by the Jets instead of getting a new contract. In short, the circumstances around Sneed's free agency are not the same. As for the contracts..........remember that at the time the top of the CB market was $13M the top of the WR market was about $16M(Sammy Watkins 2018). Now, the top of the CB market is going to be about HALF of the top of the WR market when Jefferson gets his $35M+ aav. CB is no longer paid like a premium position. They are being paid more like G's and Tackles. Sneed's $19M aav is just a million more than Tremaine Edmunds got as an off-ball LB. I was wrong about Woods being an All Pro but he was 13th among NFL players in in receiving yards in both 2018 and 2019. Making him a stud producer at a time when the Bills didn't have a receiver inside the top 30 in the league in receiving yards. So the Bills got NOTHING AT ALL in compensation for losing a top producing WR and an NFL defensive MVP. Mistakes were made.

What data leads you to that very specific conclusion about "deep" passes being the only decline in their game? The Bills were 3rd in passing yards and Allen lead the league in completion % in 2020. They have fallen off to between 9th and 11th each year and Allen's completion % and QB ratings have dropped significantly since. Do you NOT recall 2022 in fall? When Allen tore his arm.......'against the Jets......what a mess. He was hurling nothing but intermediate and deep throws for much of the season thereafter. It's not like they've been reduced to a dink and dunk by a decline in the deep ball. It's been much more than just that. Their WR corps has just declined in quality quite drastically from prime Diggs/Beasley/Brown and Davis as WR4. For much of 2020 they had arguably the most talented WR corps in the NFL and it was cited for helping elevate Allen's game to broadly unexpected heights. A stack of deep WR drafts have followed and caused defense's to adapt to the depth around the league. The amount of talent in most WR rooms around the league has only grown. Teams have followed the plan to put big talent around their young QB. The Bills, on the other hand, have gotten notably worse at WR despite that rising tide of talent league-wide.

Their passing game has been in gradual decline for the past 3 seasons. It's necessitated using Allen like RB2 down the stretch each season. Even if Diggs was still projecting as a top 10 WR in 2024.........and he's not, IMO........WR should still be the top positional priority.

Gilmore was very likely to yield a 1st or 2nd rounder in trade. He immediately became the top free agent on the market that season. By A LOT. It's supply and demand and the demand for shut-down CB's was higher then. Since spring of 2017 CB contracts have stagnated as the league in general has turned more to a bend-don't-break philosophy in the secondary. We aren't likely to see a CB win NFL DPOY again any time soon. But back then a CB could and did win NFL DPOY. Stephon Gilmore, in his second season in NE did, actually. And Bob Woods also left during that 2017 offseason and also became an All Pro. Guess how many comp picks the Bills got for losing an NFL defensive MVP and an All Pro WR? But yeah, mock the Chiefs for only getting a 3rd and a 7th.

Love the philosophy. Take advantage of the strength of this draft. If Worthy were in next years draft he would be the second WR off the board(after Egbuka) and maybe a top 12 pick. And it's not like Worthy is coming from nowhere he was tracking as a mid first in this draft for the past 2 years. And Amegadjie is a first rounder A LOT of years. That is how you use the early portions of the draft..........two premium position players who could be worth $30M+ on the open market at the end of their contracts. Not saying it's "likely" but it's conceivable if they play to their potential. A safety or a 1 tech DT isn't going to be that big $ value guy and this draft isn't very good at those positions. Historically, there is a tendency for lesser players to get pushed up the board in years where there is weakness at a position. Reaching for low ceiling, non-premium positions early in the draft is how you end up with a roster like Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey inherited. Now in terms of execution.........as much as I love Worthy as a prospect they are still going to need some size at WR later in this draft if this is the route they go. In the playoffs the refs put away their flags and speedy receivers like Worthy and undersized pass rusher like Ed Oliver tend to get tied up by handsy defenders. Power gains back it's edge in January/February. I've been warming up a lot more to @GunnerBill favorite Xavier Legette for this reason. He has the physicality to yank Jalen Ramsey by the face mask in-route and then catch the ball and score like Tee Higgins versus the Rams.

Regarding this list.... IMO........offensive talent(especially when placed around an elite QB) tends to provide longer lasting results. That's one of the reasons why you should invest MORE early picks offensively than on defense. The Bills are only now just "approaching" 50%.......that's still not enough. Go back and look at that list of Green Bay first round picks when they were spending a decade ignoring a 1st round WR for Rodgers. Some pretty good players but not a lot of legs. And I said it then, the Tre White and Tremaine Edmunds for Pat Mahomes pick trade was going to age poorly QUICKLY. Most defenders roll up mileage fast and then when they hit FA they are more likely to be let to leave. I'm sure someone will say......."well look at the Chiefs they invest a lot of early picks on defense"..........but they were balls-out investing in offense until after they'd won a SB. They had two 1,000 yard receiving targets in Hill and Kelce and STILL paid Sammy Watkins huge money in FA. And Watkins was a stud for them in the playoffs, including sealing their first SB win burning Richard Sherman late. When you've got a Lombardi in hand you basically arrive to the stadium with a lead in almost every playoff game against any team that doesn't. We watched it with NE for almost 2 decades. We had a lesser version of it with Buffalo back in the 1990's. Once you break thru that ceiling you need a little less talent to do it again each time.

Yeah the Steelers have the same kinda' setup and have been able to basically draft for the same defense for almost 40 years now. The Bills had that kind of identity advantage until, ironically, the former Steeler Tom Donahoe brought that to and end by hiring Gregg Williams and cutting Ted Washington. The day Washington got cut literally started the "drought" in motion.

Franchise QB's are $50M now. Elite pass rusher, WR, LT are $35M range now. Which is why I view round 1 as a "ceiling" play. I don't subscribe to the "can't go broke making a profit approach" to drafting that the John Butler Bills and current Ravens use. Lot's of small profits and not much elite talent at key positions. The Ravens personnel department is very efficient though.........they've been together a long time and do a great job identifying players that fit their schemes. Like those Bills they also benefit some defensively by being one of the few 3-4 teams. That allows them their pick of some good big DL that aren't viewed as favorably by 4-3 teams. And some cheap, disposable edge rushers.

It was worth it. He had a HOF career. The Browns ended up with little to show for it. Next years draft will have a lot of good receivers but nobody like Harrison. I agree with @Doc Brown that this package probably doesn't get it done. It would be a hard sell to a fan base having passed up on a player as famous as Marvin Harrison Jr.........who is basically presumed to be a HOF'er himself. Probably the most vaunted non-QB son of a former HOF'er since Kellen Winslow Jr.

Yeah, having followed the draft closely for almost 40 years and on here since the 1990's and following college recruiting on a too-often(daily) basis......I'm not trying to accumulate every draft opinion I have in the last 6 months prior to a draft. Let alone from the combine onward, like most here. So I've made note to observe certain things about TSW. Like things that trigger TSW fans to jump on players during the draft. I'll even make note of some strange people who are oddly insistent ON a certain player. Like the former Joe Sixpack, who was all about Metcalf and has been cussing the Bills out about it ever since that draft. You.......I made no note of at the time because you seemed like a random throw-dart-at-board-loudly draft newb who I thought would likely flame out on TSW anyway. Your takes have improved since then but your leaps of logic are still an issue. I had no interest in Ford or Risner, for what it's worth. Not because I thought they had zero future in the NFL. But the draft isn't about patching needs by reaching up into early rounds for guys who would be much later picks in a more average year for the position. And at a non-premium position like G or RT to boot. The early rounds are about laying the foundation for your team by getting value at premium positions that are hard to fill in free agency. You have to treat those picks like they have that value. You want a guy with a potential mid $30M's aav ceiling in round 1. Round 2 we are talking about mid-$20M's potential now. These are, statistically, your best chances to get those guys. The Cody Ford move was a total, drought era "we gotta' look competent THIS season or we might get fired" move at the expense of the greater good of the franchise. Made no sense to me given their job security. Guys like Cody Ford are available in free agency every year. Guys like DK Metcalf are not. So we are in agreement on that. I'm just saying you were carried away thinking there weren't a lot of DK Metcalf fans on TSW on draft day.