BADOLBILZ

His lack of production at Georgia supports the Samuel comparison. Don't confuse being a contrarian with teaching class. Don't stall out there. You have more potential than that because you care about the subject matter. Think it thru. That advice might enrage you but building a roster is no different than building a company......it should go strategy to system to process to procedure. Ask yourself where you are on all of those and then argue from there. Your strategy might not have anything to do with your franchise QB specifically(mine and others do). That can be where you differ. But at least you can argue from that platform instead of this time wasting procedure with @HappyDays. You aren't making a point there. Sorry.

OK so: 1) What do you EXPECT him to achieve in the next 2 seasons? 2) What do you think his ceiling is? You are talking about what you anticipated of him in the past tense. There WERE multiple people who insisted he could become as good as Stef Diggs. Anytime a WR projected to go round 2 goes in round 5 there are a ton of people who will predict greatness for that player. I'm just trying to clarify so that when his small sample size production turns into Cooper Kupp 2021 I can give you credit. For example, when I promoted the Bills selecting him in round 1 of the 2014 draft I predicted Aaron Donald could get 10 sacks as a rookie, which was a crazy high bar for a rookie DT. He got 9. He fell short.......but also I didn't exactly predict that he WOULD get that. I predicted he "could" get that. That's why I don't use it as a key data point with that opinion. So now is your chance, shoot your shot on Khalil.

The problem is that your argument is too rudimentary. Case in point.........what position that you can draft in round 1 is "as easy as snapping your fingers and you have (the equivalent) of 1,000 yards for a rookie"? As you should know.......the answer is NONE. Only about 50% of 1st round picks actually play well enough prior to their 4th season(let alone in a rookie season) to warrant their team picking up their 5th year option after year 3. And then there are levels of success with these fringe 1st/2nd level picks. The Bills were overdue for adding a big play WR in the 2022 draft......but instead chose to address an on-paper need at CB in Kaiir Elam instead of taking the "over-aged", small school Christian Watson that some of us preferred taking a risk on. Watson has not been a star yet..........but he's shown flashes. He's produced big plays put up 1,000 yards and 12 TD's and has to be accounted for due to his explosive ability in his first 2 seasons and set a floor for the top young WR corps in the NFL(because they KEPT investing, as the Bills should this year). Elam has been a bust so far and outperformed by a 6th rounder. So yeah, we want a guy who will produce 1,000 yards as a rookie WR in round 1 but the reality that the player might not hit that number isn't a persuasive argument against the selection of one. If you are going to be teaching class your lectures need more depth.

"Lol, expect".........I said you think he CAN. I never said you think that WILL happen. Not withstanding your opinion that he's blocking Shakir's ascension to WR1.

Can you quantify what, exactly, that you are "waiting" for? And if the process that's brought you to this conclusion is that the Bills can be a great passing team with an average WR corps, think again. The Bills have finished just 9th-11th in passing yards each of the last 3 seasons and as a result JA17 has had to take it on himself to will the team to victory by any means necessary. He has had to turn into RB2 in the second half of each season since the Bills WR corp peaked in the first half of 2020. WR is a problem that they should have been more serious about addressing since the END of the 2020 season finished with their undersized receiving corps falling on it's face in the playoffs(due both to wear and tear and their lack of physicality/size at a time when the refs put away the flags). They are at the point now where they need to get an X receiver AND draft a guy to replace Diggs in 2025(or maybe late 2024 if he falls off again). And I know @Alphadawg7 thinks Shakir can just move outside and get 80 more targets and become WR1 but SO MANY others blindly thought the same way about Gabe Davis getting an expanded role. We just don't know what a 40-50 target guy is going to look like getting double work. And he's 24 months from free agency too. The reality is that it's long overdue to get serious about adding high-end talent to this WR corps and NOW is the time because it's an excellent WR draft.

Yeah I had him above Marshon Lattimore mainly because I expected Lattimore to be a guy who couldn't post for 16 games per season and White had always been healthy/durable. Looked like that was going to be the story, as Lattimore was always nagged a bit by injuries compared to White. Until 3 seasons ago when White tore the ACL. Lattimore has missed a bunch of games the last 2 seasons though too and his performance has trailed off as well.

I think CB is an exception though. Not much history of them getting all the way back after a mid or late career achilles tear. It's the position in the game that requires the most agility. Easier to compensate at positions like RB or WR even. CB is very much about reaction. I suspect he will be a shell of his former self. He didn't exactly knock the last re-hab out of the park, that one ended up being on the long end of recoveries. Wish him the best, I was the only guy on TSW that had him as CB1 in that draft class.......but he is less likely to return to good starter form than he is to return to this

So Josh Allen wouldn't get a $50M aav contract if he became a free agent right now? Yeah, OK Thurm. I'm not even going to address the rest of that nonsense. Learn how to respond to a post. You don't edit the other person's post. It gets compressed and it confuses some people who arrive late as to who wrote what. I'm done arguing with an idiot at this point. I shouldn't have engaged your stupidity anyway. My bad.

I agree wholeheartedly. It's largely a scheme issue with McDermott against the Chiefs in the playoffs. Doesn't help that the Chiefs get a practice run against the Bills D in the regular season every year to hone their skill against it. We've become the 2010's Steelers going against the Patriots. The Steelers would seem to be more talented but they were all about zone defense and Brady would just pick them apart when it mattered. The Chiefs are more multiple on D so the Bills offense doesn't gain nearly as much from playing them in the regular season. I think McD is aware of this shortcoming in his game(that's why he wanted Elam, IMO) but hasn't proven he can do better. It would be great to have our own Chris Jones........that level of player might be enough to get it done.........but short of an elite superstar pass rusher I don't have any faith that other improvements will. So lean into what you KNOW can be great. That's Allen. He is capable of producing perfect offensive games in the playoffs. Give him the tools to do so and then hopefully somewhere along the line Babich proves capable of getting some stops against KC/Cincy in the playoffs.

So to clarify: 1) Your #1 priority in round 1 is just getting the BPA at a position of immediate need. 2) And you doubt that Justin Jefferson would get a $35M aav contract in this free agent cycle if he were a free? 3) And that Joe Burrow didn't set the market for a franchise QB in his prime with his $55M aav deal? 4) And you have doubt that Mahomes, Allen, Lawrence, Herbert, Love and Stroud would get $50M aav deals if any of them became free agents in this cycle? 5) As I said, Kirk Cousins at 36 coming off of a torn achilles is not relevant to the discussion. He's well past his prime. We are talking SPECIFICALLY about the draft and players who will be hitting free agency in 4-5 years. As I said, anyone not mentioned is probably aged out of a top contract or NOT a franchise QB. Who didn't I list that is both a franchise QB and in their prime? Name them. Baker Mayfield(?) who was a street free agent as recently as 2022? 6) Since you totally ignored the points about the salary cap increasing by 23% since Tyreek's $30M aav deal in 2022 there isn't any point of addressing the rest of your ramble. CMV is what something would sell for if it is available currently. As in NOW. The fact that it's been a couple years top players at premium positions have reached free agency is not proof that CMV for a top WR1 in his prime is still just $30M. It's ignorance to believe that.

He was just a drinking and golfing buddy of Josh not a legit NFL QB. Not that Trubisky isn't terrible but he has a separate personal life.

I think there is a good chance. For that reason I bought myself a Tre White jersey at Dave and Adam's when it hit the clearance for $16.99. The white one's make good preseason or early season shirt for those hot days. Passed on the Gabe/Poyer jerseys because I don't expect to see them in Buffalo anytime soon. Well, maybe Gabe in a couple years after he gets cut.

Good. Get rid of that enabler.

As @K-9 would say......."Would they like to have global marketing rights to the entire planet? Sure." But of all NFL teams we still have the largest confirmed stockpile of nuclear weapons in areas we are most beloved. And Canada too.

This is your chance to get back in @eball. Going to be a lot of people who won't pay those PSL's. And the Bills might let you get your 27 years of seniority back too.....1989-2016 right? If you send a written apology to Mr. McDermott for quitting your tickets on account of his hiring I will put in a good word for you.

Let me try to explain it a little more simply for you. Let's say there a 10 identical McMansions to yours on your cul-de-sac. 3 of them sold for about $1M in the last 6 months. Even though you only paid $250K for yours a certain number of years ago that really doesn't matter..........the current market value of your home is still going to be "about $1M". That's the way it works with QB contracts. Sure, as you say there are only 4 with aav's over $50M now. But that's not the current market value. Joe Burrow re-set that market value at $55M last summer. Since then the salary cap has increased substantially, once again. Beyond a doubt if ANY of Mahomes, Allen, Lawrence, Herbert, Love or Stroud(and perhaps even Purdy, Tua and Goff) were granted free agency tomorrow they would get or exceed $50M aav. So at least 10-13 prime age starting QB's are earning or worth $50M aav on the open market. I don't see how you can be so obtuse about this. It's obvious. Nitting over the definition of "elite" or "franchise" is pointless. Anyone who I didn't list is aged out of the top of the market or neither considered elite or franchise level. Since Tyreek Hill signed his $30M aav deal in spring of 2022 there hasn't been a prime age WR1 signing. The salary cap has increased by $47M from the $208M figure at the time. That's a 23% increase. That would project the value of a $30M contract THEN........to $37M in todays cap dollars. And that's how the agents for Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle are going to explain it. I don't think it would be a surprise if guys who are currently WR2's on their teams like Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith or Brandon Aiyuk got something very similar and they've never even actually been a WR1 for their team yet. I shouldn't have to explain it much more than that. But the truth is..........you are worrying about the wrong thing. My CMV's are correct or understated. But when these guys actually hit the UFA market in 4 or 5 years the numbers will be A LOT higher than $55M/$35M respectively. A LOT. What's important is the % of the cap these players eat up. The top players at premium positions EACH eat up 12.5%-25% of a teams salary cap in aav at signing. Sure, some of that money will get spread out etc.. It has to. But either way that's an astonishing % of slotted payroll on a team where you have around 47-53 players that actually count in the cap formula (depending how many league min salaries you have on the back end). Being able to have a cost controlled and relatively very-inexpensive player at one of these super-expensive premium positions is incredibly valuable. As is actually having that player who makes a difference at game changing positions like QB or an edge/island position. That's why you don't want to f*ck around just drafting "good football players" like RB/C/G/off-ball LB etc.. in round 1. Round 1 needs to be an upside play because that's how you get those players in most cases. It's not just "a factor". It's a HUGE factor. If it's not, you are doing it wrong. Now if the argument is "you can't expect every 1st round pick to become elite at their position...........the FACT is that you can't expect any more than half of 1st rounders at any of the positions to even justify picking up their 5th year option. So try as you might to mitigate risk, it's still a high risk. And nobody drafts a DE in round 1 thinking "boy, I hope he becomes the 64th best starting DE in the league". Everyone hopes that first round pick will become one of the top players at their position in the league.

28 starting safeties just got dumped on the free agent market in the last month+ it's a bad draft for safeties...........but the hell with it, who needs premium picks.......you only get to patch on-paper holes once! Let's use it on a devalued position!

To understand this you must be able to understand the concept of "current market value". To calculate CMV you begin with the recent contract comparison approach to estimate your player's value. The last "intact" young franchise QB to sign an extension was Joe Burrow at last seasons' cap figures and he got $55M aav. So $50M is just so obviously not "wildly inflating numbers". In fact, $50M is not even the floor anymore. Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love aren't as accomplished as Glass Joe but they will pass that aav very shortly just like lesser QB's have lapped Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Two full years ago Davonte Adams signed a $28M aav deal and a week later Tyreek Hill signed a $30M aav contract. Justin Jefferson is the next proven WR1 up and he will pass those figures by a lot. The former Vikings GM Jeff Diamond predicts a $34.5M aav.......which is probably a little light, IMO. So that will become the floor and other proven but lesser WR1's will begin passing that in short order. All of these players mentioned were drafted or acquired with AT LEAST one first round pick. Which tells you that by far the most likely (reasonable) way to get a difference maker in a matchup league like the NFL is thru the use of a first round pick.

Didn't the Chiefs put up like 9 yards per play or some far more outrageous stat against Buffalo and found themselves about 20 yards and 2 minutes of the Bills just doing what they had been doing all day offensively away from getting ousted? So what the Bengals did offensively didn't guarantee that they would dominate that game. What little the Bills offense accomplished DID. I know there are people who want to equate wanting a greater emphasis on offense into not even trying on defense but any NFL defensive lineup on any given game day of last season couldn't do much worse than the 1 actual defensive stop on downs(and the litany of chunk plays) that the Bills defense had all game against the Chiefs.

Ohhh.........so when the 2018 Bills had the lowest scoring offense the NFL had seen since the merger thru the first half of any season and the Buffalo media asked Sean McDermott about this alarming fact, to which he responded "Would we like to score 50 points every game? Of course." that was actually a literary tool? Not just a garden variety defense mechanism used to totally avoid actually giving a logical answer to a question by hurling some outrageous expectation that NOBODY had out there as if that was the only alternative? Ok, thanks Shakespeare.

Where IS @eball these days?

He is a wizard, though.........so there is that. He tricked Von Miller and Dawson Knox into betting on themselves when they already had the winning ticket in their hand so I guess it can't be ruled out.

Would it be great if he got 30 sacks? Sure.

Take the deeeeal Julian........

See that's where Beane would have to get a discount from one of his GM buddies like McDermott gave Andy Reid in the Mahomes trade. First, trade the 2 4th round picks and a 5th this year to get a late 3rd rounder. Then 28, 60 and next years #1 gets you inside the top 10 using the McDermott trade value chart(about 20 spots).........then you move up to Arizona with this years 3rd and next years 2nd and 3rd. Bada bing. But seriously..........you'd almost have to deal Diggs to Houston and get their two second round picks to have the juice to move up that far. You could trade Houston your 2026 #1 as a place holder and then they could swap it back for Diggs in June. I have no idea what kind of value Diggs would even have but, hypothetically, of course.