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BADOLBILZ

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Everything posted by BADOLBILZ

  1. Yeah and one other disservice of the drought was that a lot of Bills fans didn't follow the league as closely during it and don't have a good frame of reference. Prime Roethlisberger and Rodgers were much more physically gifted than Tom Brady. It wasn't even close. They were supposed to own the league. Goodell literally changed the way the sport is played to protect those 2 golden boys because they wouldn't conform to the Brady/Brees/Manning style of existing solely as pocket passers. And despite having the league shaped to their preference they still only won 3 combined SB's.........and one was at the expense of the other. At least Pittsburgh had the excuse of having lost 3 conference title games(2 with Ben R) to Tom Brady. The Packers fell short of reaching SB's because they consistently failed to put enough receiving talent around Aaron Rodgers. By the time they finally decided to invest capital in WR talent, Rodgers was 39 and had one foot out the door and the other on a banana peel.
  2. Yeah the reality when you have a Josh Allen type instead of a Brady/Mahomes(whose primary purpose in life is to win 7-8 SB's) is that you gotta' build like you are trying to beat THE REST of the league and hope that the tournament falls in your favor. That's how the Rams got their SB win 3 years ago. That's how the Steelers made 3 trips to the SB and won 2 during the Brady era even though the Patriots OWNED Cowher/Roethlisberger/Tomlin in the playoffs. All the more reason to stack high end receiving talent around Allen and try to give him the longest career possible so that he can continue his passive training approach to the offseasons and still play long enough to win a SB or two even if Mahomes continues to be focused/obsessed with overtaking Brady as the GOAT.
  3. Yeah AJ Brown has separated from Metcalf but DK is still really good. If they could get him for a second round pick...........that would be a great get, IMO. If the draft were to go the way the mock community expects then the part of the WR group that drops way off by 60 is definitely the boundary WR. DK is a legit boundary option and he's been a better player in the playoffs than the regular season. Likely because of his physicality. Good fit for late season games in Highmark stadium, IMO.
  4. They didn't dump Diggs because of the contract. They dumped him IN SPITE of the contract. His attitude and declining play were the top 2 factors. I don't think they want another big contract at ANY position. But I suspect that's a fluid situation depending on the player. I don't think guys like Aiyuk and Higgins would be appealing enough to pay $30M aav. They have never been the primary option for the good iterations of their current teams but will command contracts that might look like 80%-90% of Justin Jefferson value.
  5. Shill Capaccio is the worst about that stuff. What rock were you under all offseason? Everyone outside of Buffalo thought the Bills were trying to move Diggs. The Bills give the local media exactly ZERO insight into what they are doing/thinking.
  6. Perhaps, but this was a lot more brazen than what Lynch did. Lynch didn't even own up to driving he car to my knowledge and there was no video. It was a glancing blow and not a lot of other proof other than the accounts of some people who were also presumably out boozing. This was an outright wreck of cars in broad daylight that he admitted to causing with supporting video of it and him fleeing the scene and phone record of him calling the rental car company to tell them he wrecked the car as he was walking away. They know for a fact where he was at before the accident (bar) and he admitted driving. Up to 8 felony counts. There is a lot more there for the legal system to work with than the Lynch case.
  7. Ultimately, as I see it, the problem with these arguments that @Alphadawg7 and others are making about either not needing a great WR or "trading up for a stud WR never works" is that there just isn't much context. It's derivative of the argument that teams with league leading rushers never win the SB anymore..............when that used to be fairly common.............that was a legitimate proof of change in the league. And the flip side of that is that teams with superstars at other positions do win SB's on the regular. You can identify the other side of the argument. You can't identify the other side of the argument with these WR narratives that are being created. Trading up OR trading back in a draft for anything other than a QB rarely moves the needle to "SB winner" for a franchise. The league changed in 2010. By 2018 when the Bills were able to get Josh Allen with pick #7 an influx of QB talent had begun. Young athletes were being steered into passing game positions. No longer were there just 3-5 teams that had an incredibly talented QB option. At the same time, WR talent was following suit. What's happened, in general, is that the arms race has shifted from QB to WR. To even reach the SB in this era of relative abundance of QB talent you pretty much need 2 stud receiving targets. Even the Pats had Gronk and Edelman. The Chiefs second options the last 2 years had nearly 1,000 yards receiving in the regular season. And those are the closest things to exceptions. Most that reach the SB have greater talents. I just don't think there is a definitive argument about which is the way to get them. And we're just pretending there is by creating these narratives that don't really tell us much.
  8. Hopefully the direction he's headed in is incarceration. What he did warrants it. So whether he is a WR1 in the future or not, who knows, lot's of WR's have outstanding starts and flame out. But yes, he filled that WR1 role more than adequately for KC as a rookie. People act like they had no receivers the past 2 seasons but they had at least 2 pass catchers in the top 32 in production.......something only a handful of other teams could say(obviously)..........and in each case they were extremely high efficiency players and made a big impact for them in the playoffs.
  9. Yeah, he was a bad draft pick. And done for the wrong reasons, a deep reach to address a specific need at a non-premium position. 6'3" 310 wasn't even a good size for a true 3-4 NT. If you are using that high of a pick on a NT-only he better be a monster like Ted Washington.
  10. Rice playing like a WR1 for KC was just fact.......there isn't anything subjective about it.........he followed the typical path of young star receivers by getting much better as the season went on and despite a more typical rookie slow start he literally finished 28th in receiving yards amongst NFL WR and then played well in the playoffs continuing to catch nearly 80% of his targets and averaging more yards per game than he did over the course of the regular season. Whether you approach it from how he was trending or just sheer production over high volume over the course of a full season, it's the same conclusion. Not elite, but a WR1 for that team and greater production than a number of teams got from any of their actual WR's. That he played with Patrick Mahomes doesn't change what he was..........anymore than Stefon Diggs not being an All Pro in Minnesota changes that he was one in Buffalo.
  11. You are confused about the point. The Bills CLEARLY didn't draft "horrid" in rounds 1 and 2 during the drought. Criticize their roster construction but not so much the talent of the players. Marshawn Lynch is a borderline HOF'er. Steph Gilmore won NFLDPOY. Nate Clements was briefly the highest paid CB in the NFL. Aaron Schobel was a stud pass rusher. Dareus was an All Pro. Robert Woods was a star. Jairus Byrd was an All Pro. Andy Levitre got a huge second contract. Lee Evans was a excellent. Sammy Watkins got a massive second contract from the Chiefs. Willis McGahee rushed for nearly 10,000 yards. Even Lil' Donte Whitner played in 3 pro bowls. They picked enough good players in rounds 1 and 2. That wasn't the problem. All that draft capital expended and just 1 player(Wood) out of a whopping 38 1st and 2nd round opportunities(37 picks and the 1st traded for Bledsoe) over 17 drafts made a contribution remotely commensurate to the Bills investment in them in the season where they finally got back to the playoffs. Again..........the hit rate for any position in the first 2 rounds is much lower than the casual draft fan realizes. And still, even the minuscule amount the Bills had to show didn't even preclude them from being competitive enough to reach the playoffs. I think there are some clear do's and don'ts with early round picks but neither trading up nor trading back is proven as the smarter play. Doesn't really move the needle much financially either, which is a huge component in NFL decisions. The only argument for trading back is more opportunities should provide more rolls of the dice............but the argument against trading back is that your chances of "hitting" drop notably as you move back.
  12. The O's are the latest to try to copy the Astros tanking model. It's not hard to get into contention that way but it's a lot harder to sustain momentum than it would seem it should be. Cubs did it, won a WS by the skin of their teeth and then quickly faded back into mediocrity and their stars fell to earth and changed teams. The Blue Jays were supposed to be owning the AL by now after their 2017-2019 tanking yielded a team full of sons of former HOF/star players.
  13. I just presume Renfrow is washed. He might not be but two consecutive Isaiah McKenzie-esque seasons from a slot-only receiver should make him a non-option for a team loaded with guys who are best in the slot.
  14. Their approach at the plate is a lot better and they have some lefty bats now..........and Soto has been great. But he was great with the Padres too and it didn't make this kind of difference. The key component, IMO, is still Matt Blake the pitching coach. How they get top of the league ERA production from a bullpen full of castoffs every year is impressive. The organization as a whole gets great pitching results despite never drafting high. He has really saved Hal Steinbrenner's bacon. That team last year should have been like 72-90 as bad as they were offensively and with the pitching injuries. Would not be surprised if Blake gets a managers job next year just so that the organization that gets him can get his eye for pitching.
  15. Yeah won a game last night where they had A LOT of bad ball luck.
  16. Yeah I think Joe Marino listed off the most successful WR to ever measure under 30" arm length and the top of the list was Hunter Renfrow. I mean, Shakir finding sustained success would be a real outlier........but we saw the path to it last year.........as a RAC guy against deep set secondaries.........so it seems likely now, even. Renfrow had 3 good seasons(one really outstanding one) and fell off a cliff. I wouldn't be surprised if Shakir ended up the GOAT of T-Rex armed WR's. He is a bigger/better athlete. And the list of successful WR's with 30" arms isn't a lot longer, fwiw. Arm length has proven to be very important.
  17. I'm not high on that skillset for the Bills in round 2 because they have Kincaid/Shakir/Samuel who are all best used inside as well........but being that he will be a 24 year old rookie it wouldn't shock me if he fell into round 4. At which point he is great value with a high floor. Shakir had some nice numbers and tape and he fell, so I could see Pearsall being that guy in this draft. I'm not a big Ladd McConkey guy either, which I know is blasphemous because he is the route-God to people in this draft. I'm looking more for players with the physicality to excel in the playoffs. Yeah it's such a good draft for OL talent. If the Bills don't get a couple with those 10 picks I will be disappointed. The iron is hot at WR/OL/CB and if you don't take them now you can end up reaching for them in subsequent drafts.
  18. Yeah, I think the sample size is just too small on WR trade-ups by contenders. And also, since the NFL is QB driven there really isn't ANY particular position other than QB that provides big dividends to trade up for. And then there is the argument that tanking for the best QB has resulted in only 1 SB win for THAT team since Peyton Manning went #1 overall in 1998. I think you still want the highest ranked QB despite that, right? The only trade that matches the criteria of a big draft trade up by a contender was Julio Jones. And to put it in perspective, the Bills didn't draft anyone in round 1 who was AS GOOD as Julio Jones between time they selected Bruce Smith until they selected Josh Allen. Over 30 years. So Julio was an absolute grand slam of a pick for Atlanta. Cleveland whiffed on all 5 picks they received in that trade...........but the odds of anyone getting more value than Julio Jones out of those picks they dealt to Cleveland is really low. Less than 50% of 1st rounders even get their 5th year option picked up and closer to only 30% become "solid" NFL starters (per PFF). But even more sobering than those numbers, IMO, was the fact that the Bills missed the playoffs for 17 straight years.........and when they broke that drought there wasn't a Bills 1st or 2nd rounder from ANY of prior 16 years of Bills drafts on the field that day in Jacksonville. Just that same seasons picks. The lesson being that we often over-value 1st round picks by presuming them to become better, more impactful players than they usually are. They are lottery tickets to be used to get stud players at premium positions. Which kinda' supports trading up, even if it feels rich, if you have HOF type conviction on that player. Personally, I like the trade-back idea "on paper" but it's not like that idea always works either. You don't see trades like the Herschell Walker deal where the returns are so outlandish that it's hard to not win those trades.
  19. KC drafted Rice with the hope that he'd be a WR1. You don't draft receivers in the first or second round to be role players unless they project to be extraordinary in a single, important aspect. Like as a deep threat. Rice was a rounded skillset type. The reason you draft any player in round one instead of subsequent rounds is because the hit rate is going to be higher with players deemed good enough to select in round 1. That's the way it works. The Chiefs took 3 swipes with day 2 picks and appear to have only hit on one(so far). The point is, if KC is your model you need an elite target(Kelce) and a WR1(Rice). The Bills have neither, at this point. With Diggs falling off last season the disparity in receiver quality was quite clear in the playoff matchup. The Chiefs offense was explosive and the Bills offense had to rely on executing smaller plays and burning clock. The Bills are in need of a talent infusion at WR. I am not against taking a great pass rusher if one were there but I am not hoping the Bills make a significant trade up at all, myself. They need multiple receivers and should try to come out of this draft with players from the other strong positions.......OL and CB.
  20. Yeah, nothing yet. When I heard he was signed I figured it was a total in-case-of-emergency signing and he would probably retire in TC when it was clear he was totally washed or there was a better young player ahead of him. Like Brandon Shell did.
  21. 9-2 is tied with their best start ever. The pitching staff is a bit of a house of cards.........but most teams' are........so those 8 innings from the Hialeah Hedgehog were big.
  22. Saying basketball is played much like it was in the 1970's except for the 3 point line is like saying football is the same except it's not nearly as violent. It's a different, more skilled game. I only really pay attention to the tournament now if my team is in contention for the final 4. The broad interest in the NCAA tournament is even more about gambling than the NFL is. By a lot, IMO. The SB is the SB whether you have a bet on it or not.
  23. Where are the examples of teams that were seen as on the cusp that made a big move for a WR that failed? Bills fans point to the Sammy Watkins trade but that team hadn't made the playoffs in like 14 years and didn't have a QB. The Julio Jones trade ultimately didn't yield a SB WIN.........but he was great and they reached a SB that they probably don't otherwise. Same with the Eagles and TO..........he elevated their game offensively and they got to a SB with him. There just aren't many examples that match the criteria one way or another so it seems like a throwaway kinda' post to hang a hat on. Randy Moss didn't cost much but he helped turn the Patriots from a defense-first team into the top offense in NFL history and got to a SB. OBJ to the same extent did have a huge impact on the Rams winning a SB. Moves for WR's have often paid dividends, in general. I don't have any desire for the Bills to trade up but the idea that it's a proven-bad formula isn't supported.
  24. Rashee Rice is actually a WR1. Mahomes had a 123.7 passer rating when targeting him(and it was 102 targets, not a small sample size like Khalil Shakir). He out-produced the 1st rounders Jordan Addison and Zay Jones and then was huge for them in the playoffs. His statistical projections for this year based on the sites I have seen predict he will produce around 95-100 catches and 1100-1200 yards 7-9 TD's most likely. Not All Pro so not "elite" but definitely excellent WR1 production. The Bills don't have anyone projecting anywhere close to that. But Rice doesn't have to be "elite". They already have Travis Kelce, the elite of the elite at TE in the NFL. I like Dalton Kincaid but unless you presume that he is going to now match Kelce as the top receiving TE then the Bills WR corps doesn't match up to KC's 1-2 punch in either spot. I mentioned all the capital KC invested in WR because they didn't intentionally allow themselves to get worse at WR. @Zerovoltz suggestion that the Chiefs did so intentionally was preposterous. They expected to get MUCH better results from Moore and Toney. They hit a HR with their 3rd try in Rice.........getting a guy who produced at such a high rate as a rookie and excelled in the postseason.
  25. Yep and using back-to-back 1st round picks on receiving targets will help make your "worse receivers" dream come true! Just like the Chiefs throwing 3 day 2 picks (Toney/Moore/Rice) at the WR position has yielded results. Bottom line........if you want to win in the NFL you need talented receiving targets.
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