BADOLBILZ

Yeah because 2019 wasn't actually a weak WR draft. Teams were just gun-shy from the bad WR drafts of 2015-2018. That was a really significant and hard to explain dry spell where a lot of teams got burned.........which re-set the expected value of WR's in the draft. Since 2019 there have been some tremendous WR drafts. Bills haven't got much to show for it but there have been.

Oh gawd the Cardinals are not likely to ake that and eat a penny of salary. RB's depreciate 3 rounds the moment you drive them off the lot.

Jets ended up, potentially, giving up a considerable amount more than their 2 second round picks this year. Good job by Green Bay prying that +65% playing time = 1st rounder deal. That will be a real kick in the Jets nuts if they miss the playoffs and also don't have their #1 pick.

You also think where Bijan Robinson lands ultimately determines the balance of power in the AFC for years to come though, too.

Yep you can always find 5 stars scattered around the board but when you have draft evaluators with close to HALF as many 1st rounders in a given draft than normal.......and that draft also has more 5 stars than average........that's a bit of an unusual combination. If we can't blame covid for disrupting critical, early career development.......then it may also more broadly indicate that the pipeline in general is not healthy. Which is even less encouraging to consider.

Yeah and just maybe this draft will turn out to be an opportunity to steal some talent like Jarrett because some GM's are writing it off as a bad year. I wouldn't throw my process out the window for any draft. A couple years ago this class looked like it might have both a high floor and ceiling. There were A BUNCH of guys who one could envision as #1 overall picks. There are no guarantees that next year or the year after will be better overall groups. I think, as football fans, we all wonder about the impact of lower participation in youth football on the NFL pipeline at positions other than QB. I really would not be surprised to see the lesser roster with the better QB win most of the SB's in this decade(like we just saw).......and that colors my idea on team building if I am a GM.

So 35 of the players eligible for this draft are former 5 star recruits. To put that in perspective for non-followers of college football/recruiting.........there are typically less than 30 in a recruiting class. So to be honest, I think it's been something of a surprise that this draft has ended up being viewed so poorly given the potential a lot of these players showed as recruits and even early in their careers. Last year at this time there was a lot of "yeah but wait til' next year.......Jalen Carter is the best defender on the Georgia team and Will Anderson probably would have been the #1 pick if he declared" etc... Addison, Njigba, Tillman, Hutchinson.........those were all guys who probably would have had 1st and 2nd round grades in a much better WR class if they came out. 2022 just really wasn't a great year for development of players from those 2019-2020 recruiting classes.

That low number is not for lack of 4 and 5 star HS talents. There are quite a few of them in this draft. It's possible that we are underrating some of the talent because Covid really impacted the development of some of these guys. A lot of underachievers in the group for sure though.

Yeah you have to have the whole 7 round mock draft from ESPN+ to really see who is available and the exercise is to select the player you'd select in each round if that's how it actually fell. Of course, changing where one player is selected earlier can change how the rest of the draft goes.

Good points. I am a LaPorta fan. You patched up some holes (on paper at least) later but I think Battle and Pappoe are probably just special teamers who would go much later in better drafts. Would like to get some guard talent in the fold. Takes longer to develop them than secondary and LB(if instinctive) and it's a better guard class than S or off-ball LB, IMO so I like that depth later.

While the Bills haven't had any 1st round busts in the McBeane regime........the only one of them to play to their reputation and have a big impact as a rookie was Tre White. So I think we are accustomed to modest rookie season expectations by now. Aaron Quinn likes to hear himself talk though so it's just a wind-bag being a wind-bag.

He used to be as connected as anyone.........so his opinion still carries some weight.

I'm more concerned about them drafting a WR in round 1 who doesn't have outside versatility.........like Downs. A slot-only is a bad use of a chip that should be invested in a player with a $20M-$30M aav ceiling. Addison is fringy there as well but at least there is a chance he can be a WR1 and starter both inside and out............I just don't see it with Downs..........and I follow UNC closely. But rest assured........if they draft a slot-only we will have a bunch of apologists jumping into insist that they can play anywhere to try to shout down any criticism of the pick.

Gabe Davis and MVS are about as close of a player comp as you will find at the position. MVS is faster but they are both roughly 50% catch rate guys good for 17 yards per reception. Both prone to big games then bad games. MVS lead the Chiefs in receiving in the AFCCG win over Cinci. The question for the Chiefs is whether Toney and Moore play up to their 2021 1st and 2022 2nd round draft pick pedigree if the Chiefs don't decide to add to their WR corps. But their WR1 is really Kelce and he's more reliably effective when needed than Diggs. Diggs can be erased from a gameplan as an outside receiver.........the Chiefs have done it to him. Kelce can't be stopped you can only hope to contain him. So the Chiefs receiving corps starts with a more reliable foundation.

At Clemson, where the game was really just a physical battle, he was. Watkins was.......at the time........the greatest true freshman WR in NCAA history........and that made sophomore DHop WR2 at Clemson that year. As a professional........intelligence comes much more into play though. DHop played it right. I'm convinced he got himself on a great PED program early and worked smart and hard to get to the top. Sammy basically did everything wrong and wasted what should have been a great career.

The depth at CB in this draft is better than safety, IMO. Part of Beane's issue is that he's not great at valuing players yet. Still over-paying and over-investing draft capital. I believe he is a smart guy and is subsequently getting better as a GM. In year 10 maybe he's a great GM. Howie Roseman wasn't the way he is now early in his career either. The key is not doing too much damage while he's learning on the job. He's done a lot of that wrt salary cap. He needs to not waste the value of his draft picks. Three "Day 2" RB's was absurd. That stuff adds up.

Problem is.......pretty poor safety class. Again.........this is why you don't reach for needs..........next year you could find a better safety in round 5 than round 2 this year..........that kinda' stuff happens. Get the best haul of talent/positional value that you can and address the 2024 needs you fell short of in UFA next offseason. The quality of safety you could get in round 2 is not likely to be better than Taylor Rapp..........and he signed for $1.7M. The drop in street value from very good to adequate at safety is precipitous. Same with slot CB.

In fairness...........Miller noted that he was told by one GM in the AFC that the Bills are the most likely team to trade out of the 1st round because they only have 6 picks and have more needs than that. So last year at this time the rationale was that the Bills were loaded and didn't have much roster space for draft picks........so they should draft to address specific positions of need. Now the perception of some GM's is that they have a lot of needs. Needs come at you fast in the NFL. The truth is you should never use the draft as a hole-patching exercise...........it's a process not just an annual event.........trust the process and pick the best players and especially at premium positions early.

40 to New Orleans.

Based on what has been told to the public by the league and Williams' agency.........probably isn't enough to make a team not want to acquire him. But considering that they caught him I am sure the league has a lot more detail about the investigation that every team would have full access to.

The flip side of that argument is if you don't have one of the top 10 DT's in football your DT room probably looks a lot like everyone else's. Beane has paid dumb money to some DT's in recent years that weren't any better than league minimum guys........and yet the defense has been good. People like to use other SB contending teams strengths as examples of how it has to be done but they don't want to point to the Eagles signing two DT's off the street in November to shore up their near league worst run defense or the Chiefs winning the SB with a bunch of rookies starting all over the defense.......none of which may ever become "stars". You simply don't have to be good everywhere to win a Super Bowl. The Bills have probably been a bit too concerned about having established talent everywhere and not enough on having difference makers on offense other than Allen and Diggs.

Imagine telling Bills fans in February that McGovern, Harty and Sheffield was going to be their first week UFA haul. Don't worry..........whoever the Bills actually pick will likely be a list of even more obscure names to the average fan but there will be spin galore about it to make everyone feel like they got some real potential. "This guy was all mid-mountain conference 5 times after transferring from West Virginia as a sophomore and holds the state HS shot-put record in South Dakota"

Yeah I haven't been following it closely but last I checked SF was the #2 betting favorite behind KC. Bills were 3rd. Personally, I always expect major injuries to un-do the Niners. They play hard and get beat up and their QB's seem to take a lot of punishment that Shanahan has failed to address despite a lot of talent on the OL. But the NFC is weak so they are a good bet to be in that championship game again.

It only takes one dumb GM............just like when O'Brien traded him to Arizona for peanuts in the first place...........but on the surface his trade value would appear to be equivalent to what 2023-2024 salary the Cardinals would eat, IMO. I'd think the dollar value of a late 2nd round pick would be around $20M today based loosely on the Osweiler trade of 2018. At $34M in guarantees required to match what is due if Arizona doesn't release him........his market just as a free agent would be limited to just a few teams anyway.