BADOLBILZ

Gabe got plenty of heat from fans during games last season about his bad hands and he's not shy about yelling back at them. Hopefully he uses that as motivation to get better. When you are among the worst ball droppers and least efficient target catchers in the entire league.......the criticism is warranted.

He would have to become extremely efficient. Maybe he will..........but expecting a huge jump in production after 4 years of being what he has been when you have already given the guy his "career" contract is very risky.

I like Ed Oliver. He's been a solid, physical DT with the talent to maybe become a star pass rusher. I liked the pick at the time and I've often defended him to people who claim he's just average. I was really looking forward to him playing for a contract because he's proven that he can be very impactful when he's really motivated. To me, he is the perfect example of a walk year wonder in waiting. I was EXPECTING something like a 10 sack season. I think Ed has some complacency in his nature and needed a walk year with huge consequences to learn what he is really capable of and raise his own expectations for his level of play. I really don't think this is a Milano situation where a player was fine with taking a hometown discount and was already on a natural trajectory to hit his ceiling as a player. I hope that's not the case and that Ed keeps trying to raise his game physically AND mentally(as Eric Washington was imploring).

Yeah the point is that they are being paid almost exactly the same.......$30,000 per snap played. Hargrave played 715 snaps per season in Philly in his breakout seasons the past two years that got him that big contract.........and totaled 18.5 sacks and 123 tackles. Ed's leadup to earning the same pay per play? Just able to play 575 snaps per season and accumulated only 6.5 sacks and 75 tackles. To put the snap counts in perspective.........Aaron Donald played 1,055 regular season snaps in 2021 when he earned his massive extension. Christian Wilkins for the Dolphins played 955 snaps. Ed's career average of 570 snaps per season is absurdly low for a perceived frontline starting DT. What that means is you really need some QUALITY depth at DT3T to play 40% plus of the snaps when Ed is only able to post an average of just under 56% of the snaps.

I don't think his underlying analytics are that good.........but it's easy to just SAY they are and not back it up.........which you sorta' did when vaguely claiming he is now a 70% snap guy(even if that is a low bar as well). It stands to reason that a guy who plays just over half of the snaps will be fresher and should be more productive on a per-play basis...........but he's not comparable to $20M types even on a per-snap basis even though those guys are doing a lot more heavy lifting. Yeah.......he does need to up his counting stats but he also needs to be better on a per play basis and play a higher % of snaps. The same argument could be made about Gabriel Davis and I guess there would be a lot of reasons to believe he will become a WR1..........I guess then it's very for his agent to ask for 80% of a top 11 WR contract?

I said he's HURT a lot. Not INJURED a lot. I don't think you are intending to create a straw man argument.........but you are. Hurt and injured are different things. Ed is hurt a lot and when he has those hurts he disappears........and either of two things happen........excuses are made by observers/fans OR he gets knocked by them for not producing.

If you play 150-300 less snaps than another pass rushing DT it's similar to missing 3-6 games with injury in terms of down-to-down impact. Now if Ed was a wildly productive per-snap player like Javon Hargrave it would be a different story. He's not though..........he's a modest producer......he will get 40 tackles and 3 sacks in the same span that Hargrave will get 60 and 10. It's simple.........for this deal to end up looking decent Ed has to raise his game and become a very different level of player or producer. $30K per snap for his production would be absurd.

Well maybe your guesstimation is right that he played a bit more for a few game stretch at one time in his 4 year career..........but he's been pretty consistently at just a tick of 56% for his career. (I think just a tick of means just a bit less than, correct? ) At $30,000 per snap that puts this deal second only to Aaron Donald on a pay for play basis. And that's not including actual production..........which is not good. He will have to be a much better player than he has been for this contract to not look kinda' ridiculous. If I was the agent for Christian Wilkins(David Mulugheta).........the bar has been reset for me at $30K+ per snap. And CW played 955 of them last year.

Yeah but Ed Oliver is hurt A LOT. A LOT A LOT. This despite being a heavily rotated DT who is playing just 570 snaps per year compared to say......Jeffery Simmons......who is being asked to play 870 snaps per year. Simmons projects to earn about $27,000 per snap on his 4 year $94M deal.........Ed Oliver at $17M projects to $30,000 per snap. And of course when Simmons is playing hurt he's still very impactful because he's a full sized DT while Ed is greatly diminished due to his lack of size/length. So on paper it's a bad deal. They still gotta' fill an extra 150-300 snaps that teams with other highly paid DT's do not expect to have to. But hopefully Ed learns how to take care of himself better and play smarter.

This thread has been hilarious and Mike Catalana showing off his Drew Bledsoe "Donahoe Clown Suit" road jersey just added to it.

I've already said why.........the Jets haven't made the playoffs in 12 years and finished last in the AFC East in 2022 and teams that have defense's that go from worst to first typically have huge dropoffs the following year. The Jets had the healthiest defense in football last year after having the 4th most injured defense the year prior. It will be hard for them to repeat that success. Their QB is turning 40 this season and is coming off his worst season as a pro and his commitment to the game is highly suspect. The Bills have the highest point differential in the NFL over the past 2 seasons. We know exactly what they are capable of and they've won the division 3 straight years, gone on the road and beaten SB contenders and won close games in high pressure situations. And perhaps most importantly........they have the best QB in the division.

Long striding WR's have that advantage over most CB's on the deep ball because CB's gotta' be able to chop it up and cover short routes as well........so they generally aren't going to be long striders. That said.........when he faces better CB's they tend to be able to track him down and he's not good if those throws are contested(see the 70 yard throw that went thru his arms with Sauce nearby at the end of the loss at Meadowlands last season). He's just not talented enough to be a top WR2 because there are a lot of good CB2's nowadays. The problem gets magnified when teams can put CB1 on Gabe and double Diggs. But if Gabe is the clear WR3 or is playing a banged up secondary.........he can excel against low quality CB's.......like he did in his great game in KC against their beat up secondary.

https://imgflip.com/i/7o4wim

Let's not get carried away with the "clutch" moniker..........yes Gabe Davis has had 3 excellent playoff games........but he has also had 3 bad playoff performances where he totaled just 2 catches on 11 targets for 34 yards. The 7th game he played in was the "perfect game" against NE where he had a modest 41 yards receiving in a blowout win. He is defined by his inconsistency. Even in big games like the AFCCG where he got shut out..........or just in big moments(like the critical drop late in that terrible Jaguars loss in 2021).

I don't know if it says THAT much about how he feels about Beane. I doubt he has the same confidence in him that he had in 2020. But everyone knows that this team is close with prime Josh Allen at QB and the Pegula's gave McBeane full control and it wouldn't make sense to scale back now to try to save a few million $ and leave them with any excuses.

I don't think that's nearly as interesting of a story really..........we have already seen how the Bills responded to being a favorite the past two seasons. They have won their division and had the highest point differential in the NFL over those 2 regular seasons. Hasn't been enough to reach or win a SB.......but the range of outcomes is much broader with the Jets. They could win the division or they could be this years version of what the Broncos were last year. They even brought in Nate Hackett to help with the latter option.

Yeah and since cap dollars roll over..........having $24M in space is merely accounting. At some point in the near future they will have to realize and absorb that $58M for playing this season.

The thing that is impressive about that is Terry Pegula writing those checks. Beane is just doing what most GM's would do if the owner gave them total control of the checkbook.

I remember the Bills being flat against the Jets because they were perceived as a break in their schedule and getting bitten by it after jumping out to a big lead in NJ. Also remember the Jets being the healthiest defense in football and still being in last place despite Saleh declaring that the Jets would meet the Bills again in the playoffs after they lost in Buffalo. This was after he told the media he was keeping receipts on their criticisms so he could shove them in their faces at the end of the year. This year the Jets have SB expectations so we will see how they handle being expected to win.

Tua used to get hit hard and low on the regular at Alabama when refusing to throw the ball away and that's how he's torn up his lower body. It's cute that he's trying to "learn how to fall" ........ but that's not the only injury problems he's had.

1. McKenzie wasn't a literal example. It was an example of a newly created thread which asked a question that I had long ago answered in great detail.......with great accuracy........with a thread I started last season. And in numerous posts ever since. Point being that if you dismiss my takes out of hand you would have missed the Lil' Dummy takes. 2. You didn't tag me in the post. This is tagging: @Alphadawg7 . You added the emoji to make it seem "T-I-C" like 5 hours ago........after my response.......when you edited it. So not it wasn't tongue in cheek at the time. That doesn't bother me one way or the other. The truth is what it is important......Beane spent a ton of money on garbage in UFA in 2018.......trying to dismiss that fact because you want to discredit the messenger is just perpetuating ignorance.

Read that aloud and listen to yourself. Daboll had a lot more than a "play or game" not work out. Daboll without a good QB was a dead f*cking last ranked OC and fired thrice for it.......and then in his fourth shot as an NFL OC with the 2018 Bills.........his offense was the worst scoring offense thru the first half of a season that the NFL had seen since the merger. His floor has been established as extremely low. It's proven. Mularkey without good QB's, in Pittsburgh at least, was very productive. I mean, Tommy Maddox was trash and that was his QB for 2 of those seasons. People forget that part of the reason that Mularkey was a desirable HC candidate was because he got production out of what were perceived to be very limited QB's. He was seen as a guy who could probably elevate the game of a young QB........and drafting one in round 1 was Donahoe's objective at the time. His first year in Buffalo he elevated Bledsoe.........his second season with a first year starter JP Losman and a journeyman Kelly Holcomb was one of the worst called offense's in Bills history.

A source? Don't be an idiot. That implies it's not public knowledge. Beane spent upwards of $100M in UFA that year and got Star Lotulelei, Trent Murphy, Vontae Davis, AJ McCarron, Chris Ivory, Russell Bodine and Marshall Newhouse. Star was ultimately paid $40M+ to play 3 seasons. Murphy got ALL of his money. If it makes you feel better to dismiss my takes out of hand that's your prerogative as a message board reader. As the owner of TBD could tell you.........NOBODY has been more right when assessing the Bills personnel and coaches since this site began in 1998. And I'm far from only negative. I have plenty of players or coaches that I defend on TSW against criticism that is wrong. Incorrect criticisms of Beane as well. So ignore me telling you that Isaiah McKenzie is too dumb and clumsy to be your starting slot WR and then you can be that guy posting after he's gone asking "what went wrong?".

So Sam Wyche coming within a minute of beating the 49ers in the SB wasn't "legit" but Daboll squeezing a 15 TD pass season out of top pick QB Daniel Jones is? I don't think you understand the point. Like I said........when they are doing well you think that they are special..........but when they are bad they are REALLY bad. Wyche had a lot of terrible coaching seasons after the good part of his stint in Cinci. Daboll was an OC in the NFL 4 times and was fired after one season the first 3 times because he was horrible.........and was historically bad in the first half of his first season with the Bills. Mike Mularkey had top ranked offenses in Pittsburgh with Tommy Maddox and Kordell Stewart at QB. Mularkey taking the job with the Bills was very similar to Daboll with the Giants. On paper he seemed like a very good OC but he drove Bill Cowher nuts and I believe it was the same with McDermott and Daboll. Mularkey had an excellent first season in Buffalo breathing new life into Drew Bledsoe........and then the season finale against his old employer happened with the playoffs on the line.........and then next year he was terrible from start to finish. He seemingly did a great job with a weak roster as HC in Tennessee as well but got fired.

With regard to McKenzie.........he didn't do much when Daboll was with the Bills. He was the same low IQ, clumsy idiot........which is why they wouldn't keep him on the field. A dose of speed once in a while and then back on the shelf. That's all he was worth. And the lamenting of Daboll is . He is just one of those hit or miss play callers. His previous jobs his offenses were always ranked 30-32.........which is why he got fired so many times as an NFL OC. As I've said many times.......he's a current day version of Mike Mularkey or Sam Wyche. When it's good you think he's special. When it's bad you want him fired out of a cannon because it's terrible. Dorsey may or may not cut it.......time will tell........but they were more consistent offensively with less talent and more injuries last season than they had been with Daboll at the helm in 2021. Certainly weren't any 6 point showings versus the worst team in football like Daboll in Jacksonville 2021.