BADOLBILZ

Baker Mayfield was the #1 overall pick. That should be enough said but where someone was or "almost" was selected in your hypothetical has nothing to do with BPA..........which is your sales pitch for the Bills selecting Bijan Robinson later in the discussion. You said that Barkley has justified a top 10 selection with his play. I don't know how you can expect to go from there to saying anything rational. That is just a ridiculous take. His overall production has been middling. You might want to shelve that take. Every year there is a new "great" RB......sometimes 2 like the dynamic duo of Najee and Etienne a couple years ago........that gets people trying to rationalize why they should be selected in round 1. And in recent history it has, in fact, always turned out poorly for that team. Considering that the first round generally produces 40%-50% of players who justify good second contracts.........taking a RB in round 1 has proven to be a consistently poor decision regardless of their hype. That's what matters. Not whether this ONE TIME might be the extreme outlier.

But who was the BPA at the time? Josh Allen coming off an unspectacular career in a lowly regarded conference.......or SAQUON BARKLEY.......coming off 3800 total yards in a major conference the prior two seasons? This is where people who try to sell the logic of "BPA" as the reason to select Barkley stray far off target. You literally do that further down thread while out of the other side of your mouth calling the Giants morons for taking Barkley instead of a QB. The reality is that without positional value BPA is an irrelevant distinction. As for your last statement..........what is the great advantage to being RIGHT about selecting a RB in round 1? If you think the middling career Saquon Barkley has had justifies a top 10 selection you are dead wrong. But even if he strung together 5 seasons where he was always a top 5 RB...........what's that juice worth as an organization? Saying it's not "always wrong"........especially when it almost always is and defnitely WAS in Barkley's case.........is hardly a reason to just do it!

The system had everything to do with Purdy's success. He's a perfect fit. There is no hesitation in his game and he makes all the throws the offense asks of him very well. If he had 2018 Matt Breida he would have done just as well or better...........and he'd have been fine if they had just kept Jeff Wilson........who, as I illustrated, was a bigger threat running the ball. Anyone who thinks that Purdy is some sort of creation made possible by McCaffrey just doesn't know what they are watching. Not sure how some of you as Bills fans..........who have literally watched the Bills refuse to put a 3rd LB on the field regardless of the situation..........don't realize that NFL defenses prefer you to take the short 4.7 yards per rush and 8-9 yards per reception gains of a good RB rather than being beaten for 10+ yard pops in the pass game. If the Bills are regularly a top 5 defense and they do it that way.........then why do you think other teams are suddenly hyper-focused on stopping an opposing RB? Just because they have a big name? It's a figment of your imagination. The modern defensive logic is very simple: the more plays you make an offense run........the more likely they will make a mistake on offense that undermines their drive. Small-bite, RB-centric game plans are loaded with opportunity for mistakes. Again........this is not 1990. The rules favor the downfield passing game immensely now and you don't have 7 years of control over players on their first contracts any longer and practice time is limited so it's a very different looking running game.

Individual RB's don't have much impact on the overall running game of teams. As mentioned in the data that the OP orginally posted and objected to........first round RB's don't tend to average more per carry than those taken later. Case in point..........you're RB standard of Saquon Barkley. Not once since Devin Singletary entered the league has Barkley averaged as many yards per carry as Singletary. Most of that time it's not even been close. As for Robinson as a slot receiver........NOBODY is a better receiving RB than Christian McCaffrey..........he literally could have chosen to be a receiver instead of a RB........... and he's just a meager career 8.5 yards per reception player. That doesn't cut it in the passing game of today. Throwing to the RB is almost a gimmick now and there are always players who can catch the ball from the RB position kicking around cheap in UFA. ACTUAL slot receivers have replaced the receiving back in the passing game. Cole Beasley in 2020, for instance, averaged 11.8 yards per reception. Ideally you are getting 11-15 yards per reception from your slot receiver depending on your style of offense. That's a whole lot more production than the 6-9 yards per catch that most RB's are capable of.

The RB the 49ers traded to make room for McCaffrey was averaging over 5 yards per carry..........McCaffrey finished with a Singletary-esque 4.7 ypc as a 49er last season. RB's in that offense tend to average 5 ypc and 9 yards per reception. He was a step down running the ball and a step up from Jeff Wilson in the pass game but still........as with all RB's........throwing to him was less effective than throwing the ball to a good slot receiver. What "saved" the 49ers season was Brock Purdy and a weak NFC. The Chiefs absolutely speedboated them in SF despite McCaffrey's best efforts because teams that live by the run ultimately die by the pass in the NFL today. And yes, the obligation to give Derrick Henry 20 touches per game promises to undermine the Eagles offense come playoff time.......just as it has for other teams with feature RB's for a very long time now.

He was an All Pro in Buffalo before Rex arrived and Terry Pegula let Todd France write a contract for Dareus with no penalty for transgressions..........but yes..........Dareus was a potential HOF'er. Would love to have seen what a talent like that would have done if he came into the league in a culture situation like the Bills have now. He was the most talented DT the Bills have ever had.......he could have been a 100 career sack guy from the interior.........and he could have been seen in the same light as Von Miller is now.

Almost nothing you said is true...........much of it is utterly ridiculous. Not sure why some people are so desperate to go out of their way to deny decades of accumulated data. It's not "over-thought"..........RB's are of little consequence when it comes to winning a Super Bowl and having one who requires a lot of touches is likely a burden on SB aspirations. Hearing that Derrick Henry is headed to the Eagles.........that's a good recipe for a step back for the Eagles.

I do think Bills would be out. The Cardinals don't owe Hopkins any money. The remaining $34M in salary is all unguaranteed per Spotrac. They can cut him tomorrow and owe him nothing more. They will have dead money on their cap either way.........but that's from unamortized bonus payments that were already made. If OBJ got $15M for one year then Hopkins will surely that $34M for 2 years, or more, on the open market. I can't see the Bills paying another WR $17M cap hit each of the next two years and it would be crazy to extend his deal any further than that to make a significant dent in that $34M figure.

And the reported belief is that the rest of the league thinks they will release him and get nothing at all in return. Remember, McCaffrey being cut was not a consideration. If they want something for him they will have to eat money. Nobody that Hopkins will be willing to be traded to is giving up anything and then taking on a 2023 $19M+ cap hit right now or re-working his deal after the fact when they have no leverage to do so. Personally..........I think he gets cut. In which case the Bills would be out because he's going to get in excess of $15M per year and they aren't going to commit long term to Hopkins and that would be needed to re-structure his deal to fit under the cap in 2023 and 2024. But trading a draft pick purely for cap space has happened before. Brock Osweiler to Cleveland.

The way is to get the Cardinals to pay most of his salary this year. Like Houston and LA Rams just did to move Cooks and Robinson. Next year is all unguaranteed money for whoever trades for Hopkins so you just release him or re-work his deal.

Always said he'd be perfect for this junk-grade media sh!t. Has a totally reasonable, OBVIOUS, take that another WR would be more helpful RB............but spins it into enough controversy with a gratuitous shot at another former player to get himself and that irrelevant show he appeared on some clicks. Ultimately.........the dude is just a super-creep off the field.........and he's off the field forever now........so probably just a matter of time before he does something stupid and gets himself cancelled. But maybe all the overzealous, celebrity worshipping Bills fans who worshipped him for all the wrong reasons will wise up to their gullibility now, though.

Hopefully you know better than to believe listed weights. It was an absurd comparison between guys a virtual generation apart in age in NFL terms. All but a few LT's are "listed" around 6'5" and between 310-330#. And Dawkins is about half way to the career Williams has put in. Bottom line is that Dawkins has come to camp woefully out of shape in recent years.......WAY more than 320........and has worked his way INTO shape in camp. That usually works til' you hit your physical peak around 26-27 and then those players need to start taking better care of themselves or their game falls off. That's seemed to be the case with Dawkins the past 2 seasons as his game has gradually diminished. He was pretty average at LT last year.........nowhere CLOSE to Trent Williams level of play..........and that's why people are eyeing up a replacement ASAP.

Trent Williams is a better athlete than Dawkins. And their body types certainly aren't exact despite your attempt to flatter Dawkins. Williams has the extra weight because he needs the extra weight to play the position. Dawkins is just a really fat dude who happens to be a good athlete. He has come into camp in horrible shape in recent seasons. He's been a good enough athlete to hold it down to this point but I'll eat my hat if he's still a LT seven years from now like the 34 year old Williams.

Even the players who weren't betting on NFL games in this instance know the rules VERY WELL. Zero tolerance is zero tolerance. People who can't abide to these simple rules.......knowing the very severe occupational punishment.......are high risk individuals to the league.

His "no trade clause" is the $19M+ cap hit to the acquiring team in 2023. Sure.........a team could try to force him to play for them but they gotta' eat that WHOLE cap hit as well...........because you can't re-work his contract in any regard without his consent. It's very simple.........he is not going to be traded anywhere that he does not want to play. Kansas City might well be in play but as I said..........why would they think they need him to put them over the hump? They just won the SB. If the Bills were the defending champion I don't think they'd be in the market either.

1. The market is limited by teams that want to pay him and that he will agree to play for 2. Leverage........everyone knows Arizona is moving him one way or another 3. Teams put great value on their draft picks Those are the reasons. The Chiefs are the other "SB contender" fit and they know they can win a SB without him. As mentioned......one thing the other SB contenders like Cinci, Philly and SF have in common is an abundance of big time playmakers. But the Chiefs would seem less likely to push any chips that they value into the table to add an extra piece because they've proven they can win with what they have and already traded picks in this draft for Kadarius Toney and have Sky Moore waiting to take snaps too.

It might but there is also the real potential that he will be a misfit with Allen and in this offense because he's not great at separating/getting open. He's not the same fit that a healthy OBJ would have been.......Hopkins is the contested catch king. If that doesn't mesh with Allen........who is known for wanting to see his receivers open before throwing to them.........then there is a potential for a LeBron/Westbrook level misfit. In that event, the Bills should want to have a very low cost out after 2023. So the idea of a re-worked long term contract should not be something in Beane's head, IMO.

To the highlighted.......I would expect that the Bills are likely the only ones willing to offer anything of value(mid-round picks) in trade so what others HAVE to offer in trade is likely irrelevant, IMO. Everyone else would rather just pay him open market or give Arizona a 7th to eat a small portion of his otherwise unguranteed(important) salary because they aren't in the cap bind that Beane is in. Beane could reach Hopkins salary demand if he gets Arizona to pay it in exchange for picks. That's the path to getting a deal done.

He's not playing for peanuts and the Bills aren't in a cap situation to get in a bidding war for him, IMO. Even if it's a small bidding war. See what happened with Odell going to Baltimore. Hopkins will get that kind of money or more. What kind of discounted open-market contract do you envision him accepting to come to Buffalo? Best fit......probably only fit........for the Bills is getting Arizona to take on most of his 2023 salary in exchange for draft pick compensation.

In a trade scenario the only thing that makes sense for both Arizona and Buffalo is trading draft compensation of some value to Arizona and having them pay MOST of his 2023 salary. Like a 3rd rounder or multiple day 3 picks over the next 2 drafts. Arizona aren't likely to have any interest in Ed Oliver........they are in a re-build and he's a rental whereas draft picks you get for 4 years. And Hopkins would then still have $9M plus in additional salary cap hit left for the Bills after an Oliver trade so it shouldn't make sense from the Buffalo perspective. I know they can push some of that cap hit into the future but that doesn't make much sense, IMO. They'd have to take him in as a 2023 rental only, IMO. If he meshes with Allen and they see a future with him after 2023 then you re-work his deal next offseason. Would Arizona pay out $15M or so in non-guaranteed money for a couple mid-round picks? This is why it seems like the most likely scenario is Arizona releasing him outright. And in the case that he becomes a UFA, I suspect the Bills would be out.

The Eagles were the much superior roster in every regard except QB and TE. In 1992 that's a blowout win for the Eagles. But Hurts was outperformed by Mahomes by a significant margin playing 2022 football. You are confusing the counting stats that Hurts put up in 36 minutes of possession with efficiency. They challenged him to be a QB and he probably did the very best that he could but 11 passes ended up on the turf and he gifted the Chiefs a TD with a fumble trying to do too much. They made a non-elite passer try to beat them and he wasn't quite up to the task.

I realize.......better yet I KNOW.........that teams want you to take the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen and hand it to even the best RB in the league instead. Every time. A top QB averages about 8 yards per pass attempt..........a top RB averages around 4.5-5.5 per rush attempt. A good slot receiver averages 11-13 yards per reception..........elite receiving RB's like McCaffrey or Kamara are around 8-9. They aren't even coming out of their base 4-2-5 if you are willing to take less yards per play. They will just run in another set of defensive lineman and dare you to keep doing it. Maybe in the process you will make a mistake dinking your way down the field......get TFL'd or get a holding penalty........and/or QB will get out of rhythm and you will turn the ball over or punt. Teams don't just stop focusing on your elite QB to stop your running game. It's not 1992 anymore schematically OR in terms of offensive line execution.

Again.......follow the history. It's not a coincidence that the teams that win SB's aren't relying on consistently excellent RB talent. Do unsung players find huge opportunities in SB's? At all positions. But you don't need Saquon Barkley for 20 games to have a guy who can get 6 yards per carry against a light box in a random playoff game. And you don't draft a RB in round 1 and give him 9 carries per game. It's more like 19-20 touches per game required for that RB. It's an investment in an identity and style of football that ONCE AGAIN just fell on it's face in the SB. The story wasn't just Mahomes only throwing for 180 yards in a dominant, score-every-possession of the second half performance...........it was the Eagles league-best-balanced offense stable of running backs only rushing for a pathetic 45 yards on 17 carries. The pressure applied by Mahomes.......in real time and based on past history...........turned the game into asking Jalen Hurts to make every play........and that wasn't how they played all season. They predictably lost. I absolutely love watching Bijan Robinson run the ball. It's a thing of beauty. Reminds me as much of Thurman Thomas as any RB I've seen since. But since the rules were changed to reward teams that pass the ball to receivers who average 10-15 yards per reception every play........having an individual RB who required 1/4 or more of the touches every season has been a recipe for ending your season with an L.

The lower bowl is supposed to be more vertical(steeper) in the new stadium.......and that is a good thing, IMO.

Do it Big Baller!