BADOLBILZ

@Billl made the argument about the significance of Josh Allen not having to beat elite QB's in his division. Not me. It's irrelevant. Tom Brady never had to beat a then-elite QB in division and he's the GOAT. Neither did Aaron Rodgers in the AFC North. My point was that it was an ill conceived criticism of Allen and the Bills and you are correct that it therefore applies to making the same criticism of Mahomes or any successful QB.

I haven't the slightest idea why Arizona would want to rent Ed Oliver for a year. His onerous salary makes him worth no more than a comp pick level pick in trade to a team that is actually trying to win. Hell Poona Ford will probably sign anywhere for less than half of what Ed is getting. For the Cardinals he seems kinda' valueless.

It's not an exact comp but Washington reminds me a lot of Johnny U's favorite target

Come on now. You gotta' play along. Like when the Bills play action to their elite 1st round RB they will have a field day throwing over the top because teams will be FORCED to take their extra DB off the field and go with 3 LB's to stop said RB. Sure, the Bills own defense basically never comes out of the 4-2-5........regardless of how great the RB is..........but other teams will fear a RB running for 5 yards per carry more than they fear Josh Allen passing the ball.

Draft party with the usual group of us that gather to watch the Bills road games. 8-12 people I'd guess. Chicken wings and such on the menu. If it weren't for the gathering I am not sure if I'd even watch the draft. Some years I haven't but in recent years we've been gathering for it.

Yeah I suspect there are a lot of guys you think will make the team that are far from roster locks. Kyle Allen at QB, Harris at RB, Sherfield at WR, Edwards and Boettger at G, Quess and Doyle at tackle..........all could lose their jobs to a rookie with potential or if they just flop in OTA's or can't practice due to injuries etc. in camp like OJ Howard did. And that's just the offense. Plenty of room for 10+ rookies if they had the picks or got priority to the UDFA's they want.

If it doesn't happen soon it probably won't happen. It's not going to be 3-4 year "wait til my first class are seniors" re-build. He's building the Buffs like it's a TV movie and he'll tie up all the loose ends when the montage sets in. Confidence men run the world but there are times in the process of setting the trap when they actually have to have a base to build from. Like the Crypto pirates that have scammed some TSW members out of a notable portion of their retirement. Deion doesn't have that at the big time college level yet. If he is successful before he quits I will be surprised and have a much greater appreciation for the power of his bullsh!t.

Who has Mahomes had to beat at QB in his division the past 5 years? The AFC west has been KC and a bunch of mis-managed patsies since Peyton Manning's arm fell off. And ALL of Mahomes career. And no........Justin Herbert isn't an elite QB. Yeah he put up impressive stats(first two years, anyway) but Tua was the top rated passer in the AFC last year and he's not elite either. People thought Herberts teams would stop underachieving badly when he got to the NFL but his Oregon experience has continued. He's just not a competitor at the level of Mahomes/Allen/Burrow. And yes, I know Mahomes blew a 24 point lead to Burrow in the AFCCG........sometimes an elite QB has a historic choke job........but the performance by Herbert in Jacksonville was just an epic lack of will by the more talented team. An admittedly raw, second year Allen took a talent-deficient Bills team to the playoffs in a division with Tom Brady in it. He didn't beat Brady but Brady got the best of Mahomes a couple times in that 2018-2020 stretch if I recall. The Bills have not always been unchallenged in their division. As for the list of QB's Mahomes has beaten in the playoffs.........the best QB's on the list are Allen and Burrow. I suspect the Jimmy G/Jalen Hurts SB wins are going to look like the Jake Delhomme/Donovan McNabb wins on Brady's resume in retrospect.......not the Kurt Warner/Russ Wilson HOF career types that he beat. Again.........Jermaine Johnson and Rousseau aren't comps at all. Not close. Rousseau lead the NFL in run stops as a rookie playing only 44% of the snaps. He is an excellent pressure guy, great against the run and likely a double-digit sack guy this season. He's like a year and a half younger than Johnson and miles ahead of him. Johnson's rookie year comp is Boogie Basham. Except Basham put up the same numbers in a lot less snaps. Like I said.......that just shows me you don't follow personnel very closely and are making lazy comps. Are Sauce and Wilson and Quinnen very good players? Sure. But like I told people when the Bills traded the Mahomes pick to KC and people defended it with Tre is All Pro and Edmunds is very good..........an elite young QB is worth a half a roster of star players. The Bills have that. As for the Vegas odds.........yeah the Bills are the 3rd favorite to win the SB despite your assessment of their roster. A team with a 40 year old, half-retired screwball at QB being BEHIND them in the odds sounds about right. I mean........it will be tough going against Aaron Rodgers who had to overcome so many elite QB's in the NFC North every year..........but hopefully Josh Allen can raise his competitiveness level.

I'm pretty sure that this is the 25th consecutive year that Bills fans on TSW feel that the Bills are in an "awkward spot" in round 1.

I didn't say anything about the Bills roster. The Bills have had seasons(2017 and 2019) where they have overachieved and reached the playoffs with McDermott, though. Saleh? His Jets got off to a fast start playing a bunch of backup QB's. White and Flacco and Zack beating backup QB's is meh. They finished 2-9 on the season versus starting QB's. They also had the healthiest defense in the entire NFL last season. So basically..........they had A BUNCH of "ball luck" just to get to that 7-10 you find so impressive. And as noted in the Barnwell ESPN article...........teams that make huge improvements in one year defensively have a tendency to give it all back the next year. Remember the great young Redskins defense a couple years ago? Jumped from 27th to 3rd. Then fell back to 27th. As for you player comps........when you draft later you tend to get lower ceiling players. But the Bills picks aren't busts and I question your knowledge of players if you think the over-ripe Jermaine Johnson is better than Greg Rousseau. That screams "I don't follow this closely". Here's the draft pick you didn't mention............Bills drafted Josh Allen.........Jets drafted Zack Wilson. You are a fan of a team that just won a SB with an overmatched roster...........because they had the better QB. So why can't you understand the perspective that a logical fan will believe that the Jets or Dolphins will unseat the Bills when they ACTUALLY prove they can outperform an elite QB'd team over 17 games?

Bridging your way past Patrick Mahomes was *maybe* the most egregious version of an ill-timed bridge decision ever. Definitely isn't a model. That bridge ended up looking like something engineered by the team at Rube & Goldberg. It nearly defies belief that they ended up with a good QB of their own out of it and not just looking like they traded Babe Ruth for a small sum of cash and a high interest loan to finance a play at Shea's. Don't try it at home, GM's.

Sherfield stinks until proven otherwise. He is like Davis in that he drops passes that hit him in the hands.......and is a sub 60% catch rate target. But he's not like Davis in that he gets 12 yards per catch instead of 17. 25%-30% more yardage makes those drops a bit easier to stomach. Davis history suggests he has a very high ceiling as a #3 if the team runs a ton of 11. Sherfield........he might have had his "Andre Holmes 2014" season and really be nothing more than a special teamer.

At age 28 Daryl Williams was probably the best RT in the AFC in 2020 and had "All Pro" recognition in his history. He signed a long term deal.........didn't miss a snap the next season.........and then he got cut. Like I said, you are clearly just a willfully ignorant individual...........things change fast in the NFL even if you have an impressive track record........which the version of Connor McGovern that the Bills signed absolutely does not have. I guarantee, unless you are a Penn State fan, you didn't even know who he was when the Bills signed him but you now have supreme confidence in him playing out his contract.

How many games would the Bills have won? Irrelevant. Granted, their HC Sean McDermott did guide a team to the playoffs with the worst point differential to do so in 35 years so the HC does have a history of getting more than the sum of his teams parts.......so maybe 9 or 10 wins wouldn't have been out of the realm of possibility. But IMO........Allen and Rodgers are apples and oranges at this point in their careers. And fwiw.......that's not how it actually works though. Patrick Mahomes is worlds better than Alex Smith but the Chiefs didn't start going from 10-12 wins with Smith to undefeated every year because of the upgrade. The improvement in regular season record was modest. The Jets caught teams by surprise early last year. That element is gone. And they won just 7 games but that already counted a win against Buffalo.......boring the Bills into submission in a listless effort that would have been reminiscent of games the Chiefs played against the dregs of the AFC......Houston(OT win) and Indy(loss).....last year. So it's not like the Jets even have 2 games to gain against the division favorite, do they? I'm sure you were quaking in your boots when the Broncos added the elite, seemingly still prime and dynamic Russell Wilson to a superior defense to KC and a host of young offensive weapons. After all, the Broncos often play KC tough no matter what scrub is at QB. And Russ had a significantly better year in 2021 than Rodgers did last year. Did the Broncos improve by 5 games just because they added a veteran future HOF QB who had thrown 25 TD passes and just 6 INT the year before? It couldn't have gone much different than expected. I mean, yeah they did almost beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead late last year with an interim coach and a QB fiasco going on...........but somehow the young, elite QB'd team with the coach with the winning track record managed to prevail. Go figure. But I will note that you think Rodgers is in the equivalent of Allen and Burrow still. At age 40, coming off a big performance drop, when he admittedly was 90% committed to retiring 2 months ago. With a new team that has the longest playoff drought in the AFC. And a buffoonish meathead at head coach.

I'm merely admitting that they may need a significant overhaul. I hope not.........but it's not a young line full of solid performers. The 2016 Bills OL lead the entire NFL in rushing and had 2 pro bowlers and a good LT and a promising young guard. Their 2018 offensive line was 5 different players entirely. The current Bills OL is similarly aged.......Morse likely in his last year.......Dawkins coming off an average LT season and trending down 3 straight seasons........3 guards who are marginal NFL starters at best...........and a RT who really struggled last year and has a back injury history(huge for tall OL). The Bills can cut Connor McGovern next offseason and save $1.8M. He's been a nobody and a part time starter. If you are certain that Beane found a gem for $7M per year then you have a lot of faith in a GM with a terrible track record with such signings in UFA. Edwards is a 1 year deal for a guy who seems kinda' broken. Bates is probably the successor to Morse unless they draft a center(which is possible) or he could be a cut candidate. Also very reasonable to think that Bates is the C and Dawkins is a high salary guard in 2024.........and 3 players not even on the roster today are manning the other spots. So yeah........starters at 5 different positions. It's the NFL........turnover % can be HUGE. Dawand Jones securing the position for years? Have you looked at the track record of "sure-thing" RT's taken in round 1? If not you are just willfully ignorant. Because in order to be limited to RT you need to not have the feet to play LT. Good defenses often have 2 excellent edge rushers so you end up with Spencer Brown or Jordan Mills situations either way early in their career. That's why teams have TE's and RB's to help on the strong side and it's also why RT's then don't need to be that good. If they do pan out........teams generally let them hit UFA because RT really isn't an edge/island position. Frankly, the quality guard play is more important than the RT. If the Bills felt the need to spend a $20M-$30M aav kinda' chip that a 1st rounder is........they could have just signed Wylie or McGlinchey. The cost wasn't that prohibitive. It would be beyond bizarre for them to use a 1st rounder on a RT given the market for them. So you can be sick and tired of some aspect of the Bills all you want. It's the right of every idiot fan to feel that way. But if you don't utilize the draft to get the best players at premium positions early........you are using it the wrong way.

Yes they may need 5 different starting offensive lineman as soon as 2024.........factoring in likely moves to different positions by Bates and Dawkins that may even be LIKELY. You aren't getting that with 1 draft pick. You could get a difference maker at WR with 1 pick, though. This is why I laugh at the people that want to just throw picks at a volume of offensive lineman and eschew edge/island positions on principle. How did that work throwing early picks at DL in back-to-back drafts? They went 1 for 3. You have to get the best players available at the premium positions early in the draft........just attacking a position of need leads to some ugly drafts.

If they were in the NFC.........any of the divisions........I think the Jets would have signed Jimmy G or David Carr immediately and tried to win 49ers style. Having Josh Allen in division means you gotta' swing for the fences at QB. The $60M cap hit alone impacts their timeline........they should be a $100M cap space kinda' team entering Zach Wilson's 3rd season right now. Hopefully that applied pressure disrupts the Jets window before that good 2022 draft class starts demanding big contracts after the 2024 season.

From ESPN Bill Barnwell trade grade article: In addition, the deal doesn't appear to offer retirement protections for the Jets. This is an oversimplification, but the Jets very conceivably might be paying a second-round pick (in 2023), a first-round pick (in 2024) and $59.5 million in exchange for one year of Aaron Rodgers. That is a lot. The Jets have a good roster. But it's not that good that they should make this kind of investment in what might be a one-year gamble. Trading for Rodgers was a fine plan. But the Jets gave up too much. Jets' grade: C Packers' grade: A- I agree completely with that.

Just get rid of the white collar for chrissakes. It's unnecessary and leads to these popped collar and polo shirt looking necks. Those 2012 ones were worse........truly terrible........but this just isn't a good look either.

His salary is just a function of timing........all 4 of those guys were picked in the same draft so they just hit their second contract signing time..........and two of them were picked after him. All of them have been All Pro except Edmunds. So yes, he fell short of expectations. Tre White and Shaq Leonard were their best selves as rookies.........so that happens too........they've never been better. Some rookie actually are great and don't have a lot of room for improvement but I don't think fans expect that at all. We are accustomed to works in progress.........we know the mantra about the biggest improvement period being the offseason between year 1 and 2, etc.. etc.. Edmunds best year was quite possibly his first as well, but it's all relative because he never played close to the level of the aforementioned players. He struggled against the run and missed by far a career high % of tackles as a rookie.........but play making and tangible pass defense trump those aspects. He made more plays....a career high in INT, his only 2 forced fumbles of his career and his most QB hits along with a career high in tackles. He looked like a big play LB in the making and instead became the opposite. And teams hadn't yet figured out that he lacked a nose for the ball in pass coverage so they didn't throw directly at him in coverage and register the outrageously high passer ratings like they did in 2020-2021.

Pretty good from Aaron Rodgers won't win the division. If you still think he's an MVP quality player going into a season where he turns 40.........and given everything that's transpired with him the past year and a half...........then say THAT. Pretty good and great are a significant distance apart.

I guess the 0 to 3.9 range on the NFL scouting system is to measure how hitter-ish random citizens look.

Do you have a positional value chart to help with your math? I had a scale where the QB position was worth 10.......a much more sensible top end number to use than the intentionally weird 4-8 grading system. Pass rusher 1 and LT were worth a 4 and then it gradually slid down by fractions from there.

I didn't say anything about draft status. Tre White played at a pro bowl level as a rookie. He was great. That might even have been his best season. He hit the ground running and didn't stop that season. That happens occasionally with a rookie but we don't expect that. Quinn was implying that fans expect these players to play close to their potential right away. In reality, I don't think we do. We definitely grade them on a curve. You definitely did. I am a huge Rousseau fan but a 4 sack season like his rookie year would be terrible in 2023. An argument could be made that Edmunds best season was as a rookie and had 3 subsequent down seasons before rebounding in a contract year. But even so it wasn't a spectacular, pro bowl kinda' start. And those kind of seasons aren't that unusual for MLB's........see the next MLB picked, Shaq Leonard, who was first team All Pro as a rookie. Edmunds was notably poor in run defense and missed a very high % of tackles as a rookie. He's never developed into the player the fans or organization hoped.

Hey I'm not mad........glad to see a bumbling franchise draft a RB in round 1. Maybe Bijan will be the first 1st round RB to have a stellar career for that team that drafted him since Adrian Peterson in 2007. It's only been 15 years. That's recent history right? More likely........Texans fans will get to watch him have his ups and downs and then be traded to a contender for pennies on the draft investment dollar in 3-4 years...........like Marshawn Lynch from that same 2007 draft eventually was.