BADOLBILZ

7 years is a great amount of time to get out of a never-elite LT. This is his 7th year. Whether they replace him this season or next it's either near or at the top of their long term needs. LT is the only premium OL position.

Yes in the brief time that Dion Dawkins spent filling in for Richie Incognito at guard as a rookie he stood out. He looked much better than Incognito. And Incognito was still quite good at the time. He's older now and hasn't taken care to have himself in the best of shape for many years(in addition to a near death experience with Covid) but I do suspect he'd still be an excellent guard. He has the power, the feet and the low center of gravity that not all tackles have.

The difference being how we define "star". To me........a "star" is about organizational impact. I think you believe that a star is something different...........because RB's stopped having major organizational impact decades ago..........they are fantasy stars but the more they are relied upon individually the more vulnerable those teams routinely prove to be in the playoffs. Players at premium positions are pretty much the only ones with enough of an opportunity to individually impact the game at a level that moves the needle for a franchise. The non-premiums just don't have the chance. If they do well, it's very much because so many other aspects fell into place. QB and Edge/island players are at the top of the pay scale because they are given the chances to change the outcome of games and seasons even when the "support" staff isn't winning their battles. It sounds good to say that it takes "all 11" to have success on that side of the ball but the way the game is currently played that is not the case.

Obviously.......the right pick was to stay put and select Aaron Donald. Evans has been exceptional.......likely a HOF accumulator...........but Donald has been DPOCentury and often the best player in the league during his career. I started a thread to push that unpopular idea leading up to the draft..........but the Bills didn't have an immediate need on the DL so it got about 5 replies. The lesson is that the only REAL need is when you need a QB. You draft early for stars.

For a second I thought it was Robert Wagner. Can't keep track of the old actors that were accused of killing their actress wives.

Gabe Davis is a model of consistency. You know what you have. Not fast, not quick, very poor in contested catch situations due to modest ball skills/concentration.........but a big target and very good at running the routes he does well, some of which create big plays. I think you are confusing skill with consistency. He has never been any of those things that he's not good at.

Settle was the only one of those who would qualify as a "sleeper". Jones was a steady, long-time $4M/yr value plugger who Beane overpaid..........the other two were worn out veterans.

That's why you call. They really are a mess but I don't think they are a Buddy-Nix-Bills-level mess where they took an offer from Seattle for Marshawn Lynch without ever gauging interest around the league and then Green Bay and New Orleans were both like "WTF we'd have paid a lot more than that". Payton brings some level of competence at least. They no doubt have fielded a lot of calls on Jeudy and probably just dismissed them but if not they surely will get his value.

There is value in not allowing a losing culture to develop.

I don't know who said no team was willing to pony up a 2nd rounder for Jeudy. That is likely FALSE.........as Chicago ponied up what was obviously going to be an early 2nd for Chase Claypool. And after the trade deadline Jeudy missed a couple games with an injury and finished the season on a tear averaging 87 yards per game and catching 82% of his targets in the final 6 games. That projects to nearly a 1500 yard pace over 17. He literally "broke out" at the end of the season. Stock UP. I would doubt he would be available for ONLY the Bills first rounder........Diggs wasn't and he came with a fat $15M aaa contract already...........Jeudy has like a $2.7M cap hit.........that factor alone adds draft pick value..........but I agree that Jeudy is a target Beane should and probably has called Denver about.

Why would they trade Jerry Jeudy for anything less than a 1st rounder? He had something of a breakout season and has a cap hit of next to nothing next year. He is a valuable commodity.

Yeah and you gotta' feed Henry to get him in a rhythm. And while the Titans surprisingly had *some* success using Henry for RPO plays out of shotgun last year..........his best fit is clearly behind a QB who is under center with traditional play action so that Henry can get a running start toward the LOS. People who think that defense's won't still be able to drop 6 or 7 into coverage are wrong. The objective defensively wouldn't be to stop Henry from running for 5 ypc like it is when they play the Titans. Opponents will gladly take that and let the team with the elite QB try to shorten the game rather than get into a shootout with Josh Allen. Instead the objective likely becomes to create more negative plays with zone blitz type action and take Henry out of the equation thru down and distance while getting more hits on Allen. Allen wasn't great against the blitz last year and that was when he was in shotgun mostly and not turning his back to the defense in traditional play action. There is a very "Russell Westbrook to the Lakers" feel about adding Henry to the Bills backfield..........he is really an awkward fit for what they do.

They turned Peerless Price into a first rounder. They then stupidly used it on a RB. They SHOULD have franchised and traded both Nate Clements AND Stephon Gilmore.........just bad decision making by the personnel departments to let them leave and become the most sought after free agents on the market in those years when they DEFINITELY had big trade value. At the time most people on TSW were hoping that letting those highly sought after CB's be free was going to build up goodwill in the free agent community and pay dividends. What a crock of sh!t thought that was. Nobody doesn't choose to join a team in free agency because they used a franchise tag on some other player.

He was awful under Marrone. Awful. He was a system player.........if allowed to move he was very good........but he was on skates in a power scheme............even Wood himself thought he was going to be cut after 2014. So if his effectiveness was very limited to system/style.......that makes it it fair to call him an average center on the whole. Greg Roman resuscitated his career.

They drafted Levitre (guard) and Byrd (safety)............two non-premium positions.........and they met or exceeded all expectations on their rookie deals.........but at the end of those contracts they let them both leave in free agency without much effort. If they play very well and you have cap space and just choose not to re-sign them...........they were dumb picks. But what good are a high paid guard and safety when you don't have enough difference makers at the premium positions? You aren't winning without being good at premium positions...........and you don't just stock those and forget about it...........it requires annual maintenance to stay on top of it and have the best players at those positions that you can acquire and afford. Say no to non-premium position players early. Yeah the Bills haven't drafted a guard or center or safety or any runnin' bax in round 1 since the 00's..........but they have basically been pretty solid at the one premium OL position at LT for 11 years and counting now because of the two second round picks they used there. Just throwing a pick at the OL for the sake of it is stupid. See Cody Ford.

EJ is almost as bad as an analyst as he was as a QB. He has been working Saturdays for ACC Network for a few years. Brutal. I guess they needed someone who fit in Willie McGinnest suits.

Meanwhile........EJ Manuel just joined the stable of terrible former player analysts on the NFL Network. 🤢

Houston has him on a favorable deal in 2023.........and Houston is home for him so I don't think he's going anywhere.

Yeah I actually expect Beane to seriously consider a RB in round 1 in particular. That's what they did in Carolina when they felt like Cam couldn't get them over the hump with what they had. That looked good on paper and of course turned out terribly........but it is what they did and Beane was there when they did it. I'll add that back in the 1990's I thought you couldn't go broke making a profit in round 1.........that's not to say I liked the Bills picks, I did not(unlike the #1 picks under Beane to date). The Bills took what were then non-premium positions in round 1 practically every year and had pretty good success. It gradually opened the door up for the Patriots in the mid-90's, though. One thing that hasn't changed is that it's a matchup league still. Difference makers are worth exponentially more.........so I'll stay in the high reward area in round 1.

Clark is officially in the Jerry Hughes/Justin Houston/Melvin Ingram stage of his career............that's $5M for one year level........not anywhere close to the $21M. Speaking of Houston........wouldn't be surprised to see him return to KC.

Yeah it's also important to remember things change very quickly in the NFL. Unhappy now could be ecstatic after 180 yards receiving on opening day. I wouldn't put it beyond Diggs to be conspiring ever-so-subtly to incline the Bills to invest offensively this offseason. Perhaps with Allen having knowledge of that. I mean........it's "sh!t or get off the OBJ" time, for one thing. And public free agency negotiations start this Sunday so you know agents for the top UFA's are already well into discussions with teams.

It's not an easy call but part of my philosophy is that the team should recognize that the 1st round pick is both the best chance to find a star player but also the most overrated personnel chip. It's still pretty much just a 50/50 swing whether you swing big or just try to make contact. If you swing and miss BIG........at least you gave yourself a chance at a home run. You can draft poorly in round 1 and win. But drafting non-premium positions becomes a double edged sword because you eventually have to pay them close to premium dollars if they pan out.........which is not ideal at all. How bad does the Quenton Nelson pick look in hindsight? He was as sure of a thing at a non-premium position as Bijan Robinson........and he played well enough for the 5th year option decision after year 3 to pressure the team into a 4 year $80M extension and now he has already turned into a middling performer when Josh Allen is just entering his prime. I'd rather have swung and missed at a Josh Rosen level than that. That 5th year option coming due after just 3 years.........when a second round pick has 4 years before you have to decide on anything beyond that........really complicates the decision and truthfully most fans put zero consideration into that. The GM having to decide whether to give a #1 pick RB an extension to keep him to year 8 or 9 or to choke down a $15M+ cap hit in 2027........that is a very unappealing situation. Especially if he has the huge ups and downs like sure things of recent past in Fournette, Barkley and McCaffrey.

My preference, of course, if there isn't a premium option available is to trade out. To either acquire a good player or accumulate more picks. That's what I am actually hoping for........I'd love to have another top 100 pick. But if it came down to there just being a top CB prospect available who checks all the boxes of being a future stud........and nobody wants to pay the price for the pick..........I'd take the CB. Who knows? There weren't any shut down CB's on the field for the Bills last season. We assume Tre White will bounce back but what little man coverage he was once capable of he may never be again. So yes, they appear to have starters but by this time next year CB1 might actually be a need. And bad CB drafts happen too.......so my philosophy is if you can't move then get quality at a premium position when you can. And another CB in the rotation might also allow them to move Taron Johnson to safety..........which is probably something I'd be asking for if I were him. He's earned the right to have the chance at that promotion, IMO. It wouldn't be a throw away pick. Changing your philosophy is a slippery slope..........when you take a Bijan Robinson or James Cook in the first two rounds..........you almost certainly DON'T take a Tyjae Spears or Isaiah Pacheco with a considerably later pick. This draft isn't great but I don't think it's terrible..........it just isn't great for the Bills current needs in the early rounds. But needs change fast. There could be a C who goes in round 5 this year that might have been pushed up into round 2 or 3 by need in past years. Lot's of RB's. Plenty of safeties and a fair amount of promising OTB LB's as well. So when you take those guys real early you kinda' set yourself up to fail in later rounds if you aren't willing to pick more of them when they actually represent value.

Yeah for the most part I've thought Beane has been sticking to the premium position model. MLB isn't a premium position but at the time I saw Edmunds as an excellent edge rush prospect that would probably assume the Lorenzo Alexander role and add coverage ability. I saw Oliver as a pass rusher. So in that regard they've all been premium positions in round 1. It's rounds 2 and 3 where they have had a tendency to reach for needs. Epenesa was the only one that kinda' met both premium position and upside, IMO. Ford and Basham were just JAG's IMO. Sometimes players get elevated because there is a lack of talent at the position(like Ford in a bad OT class of 2019)..........and other times the perception of a great class raises a few guys who don't pass the eye test(like Basham specifically).

Yeah not a "great" time but expected. The NFL made the track at Indy faster a couple years ago because everyone complained about it being slow for years and used that as an excuse for not running. Nobody is saying that anymore. A 4.47 this year is more like a 4.52-4.57 a few years ago.........which passes the eye test on Robinson for long time observers. He has adequate speed but falls short of the "whole package" that he's sold as. The tape shows that. It causes confusion though when they run the "simulcasts" showing a player running on the 2008 track alongside the guy on the 2023 track. We can look forward to a couple more years of every record being broken and then they will have to lower the bar again.