BADOLBILZ

1. The market is limited by teams that want to pay him and that he will agree to play for 2. Leverage........everyone knows Arizona is moving him one way or another 3. Teams put great value on their draft picks Those are the reasons. The Chiefs are the other "SB contender" fit and they know they can win a SB without him. As mentioned......one thing the other SB contenders like Cinci, Philly and SF have in common is an abundance of big time playmakers. But the Chiefs would seem less likely to push any chips that they value into the table to add an extra piece because they've proven they can win with what they have and already traded picks in this draft for Kadarius Toney and have Sky Moore waiting to take snaps too.

It might but there is also the real potential that he will be a misfit with Allen and in this offense because he's not great at separating/getting open. He's not the same fit that a healthy OBJ would have been.......Hopkins is the contested catch king. If that doesn't mesh with Allen........who is known for wanting to see his receivers open before throwing to them.........then there is a potential for a LeBron/Westbrook level misfit. In that event, the Bills should want to have a very low cost out after 2023. So the idea of a re-worked long term contract should not be something in Beane's head, IMO.

To the highlighted.......I would expect that the Bills are likely the only ones willing to offer anything of value(mid-round picks) in trade so what others HAVE to offer in trade is likely irrelevant, IMO. Everyone else would rather just pay him open market or give Arizona a 7th to eat a small portion of his otherwise unguranteed(important) salary because they aren't in the cap bind that Beane is in. Beane could reach Hopkins salary demand if he gets Arizona to pay it in exchange for picks. That's the path to getting a deal done.

He's not playing for peanuts and the Bills aren't in a cap situation to get in a bidding war for him, IMO. Even if it's a small bidding war. See what happened with Odell going to Baltimore. Hopkins will get that kind of money or more. What kind of discounted open-market contract do you envision him accepting to come to Buffalo? Best fit......probably only fit........for the Bills is getting Arizona to take on most of his 2023 salary in exchange for draft pick compensation.

In a trade scenario the only thing that makes sense for both Arizona and Buffalo is trading draft compensation of some value to Arizona and having them pay MOST of his 2023 salary. Like a 3rd rounder or multiple day 3 picks over the next 2 drafts. Arizona aren't likely to have any interest in Ed Oliver........they are in a re-build and he's a rental whereas draft picks you get for 4 years. And Hopkins would then still have $9M plus in additional salary cap hit left for the Bills after an Oliver trade so it shouldn't make sense from the Buffalo perspective. I know they can push some of that cap hit into the future but that doesn't make much sense, IMO. They'd have to take him in as a 2023 rental only, IMO. If he meshes with Allen and they see a future with him after 2023 then you re-work his deal next offseason. Would Arizona pay out $15M or so in non-guaranteed money for a couple mid-round picks? This is why it seems like the most likely scenario is Arizona releasing him outright. And in the case that he becomes a UFA, I suspect the Bills would be out.

The Eagles were the much superior roster in every regard except QB and TE. In 1992 that's a blowout win for the Eagles. But Hurts was outperformed by Mahomes by a significant margin playing 2022 football. You are confusing the counting stats that Hurts put up in 36 minutes of possession with efficiency. They challenged him to be a QB and he probably did the very best that he could but 11 passes ended up on the turf and he gifted the Chiefs a TD with a fumble trying to do too much. They made a non-elite passer try to beat them and he wasn't quite up to the task.

I realize.......better yet I KNOW.........that teams want you to take the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen and hand it to even the best RB in the league instead. Every time. A top QB averages about 8 yards per pass attempt..........a top RB averages around 4.5-5.5 per rush attempt. A good slot receiver averages 11-13 yards per reception..........elite receiving RB's like McCaffrey or Kamara are around 8-9. They aren't even coming out of their base 4-2-5 if you are willing to take less yards per play. They will just run in another set of defensive lineman and dare you to keep doing it. Maybe in the process you will make a mistake dinking your way down the field......get TFL'd or get a holding penalty........and/or QB will get out of rhythm and you will turn the ball over or punt. Teams don't just stop focusing on your elite QB to stop your running game. It's not 1992 anymore schematically OR in terms of offensive line execution.

Again.......follow the history. It's not a coincidence that the teams that win SB's aren't relying on consistently excellent RB talent. Do unsung players find huge opportunities in SB's? At all positions. But you don't need Saquon Barkley for 20 games to have a guy who can get 6 yards per carry against a light box in a random playoff game. And you don't draft a RB in round 1 and give him 9 carries per game. It's more like 19-20 touches per game required for that RB. It's an investment in an identity and style of football that ONCE AGAIN just fell on it's face in the SB. The story wasn't just Mahomes only throwing for 180 yards in a dominant, score-every-possession of the second half performance...........it was the Eagles league-best-balanced offense stable of running backs only rushing for a pathetic 45 yards on 17 carries. The pressure applied by Mahomes.......in real time and based on past history...........turned the game into asking Jalen Hurts to make every play........and that wasn't how they played all season. They predictably lost. I absolutely love watching Bijan Robinson run the ball. It's a thing of beauty. Reminds me as much of Thurman Thomas as any RB I've seen since. But since the rules were changed to reward teams that pass the ball to receivers who average 10-15 yards per reception every play........having an individual RB who required 1/4 or more of the touches every season has been a recipe for ending your season with an L.

The lower bowl is supposed to be more vertical(steeper) in the new stadium.......and that is a good thing, IMO.

Do it Big Baller!

See the mistake you made is that you gotta' counter offer and take all those "free" picks in the 200's. You can basically tack those on any offered deal and they will still take the deal. The algorithm basically deems them as worthless. Then you can get 18 imaginary picks or so and really load up on the highest quality camp fodder and have the best practice squad in the league(especially if the league goes to 1 cutdown date at the end of preseason like they've discussed).

My philosophy is not flawed at all........it's entirely consistent with the last 10 SB winners. All lead in rushing by nobodies who little was invested in. That's reality. The problem with making a regular habit out of feeding a stud RB is that in the playoffs EVERYBODY plays run defense. So then those carries that were successful in the regular season become forced and less effective. It's why Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara could never get to the SB despite getting home field advantage multiple times. The idea of balance looks good in your minds eye but ultimately if you have stud QB's in your bracket you need to be prepared to throw the ball every down in the playoffs. And you practice like you play........and the regular season is that practice. If you are a team that needs balance to succeed.......that balance will be taken away from you. If you can throw the ball every down you are indefensible in todays NFL.

Yeah, I would have. RB's are just dumb selections in round 1. Taking the ball out of the hand of a QB who is producing nearly 8 yards per pass attempt.......even for a guy like Taylor who had two years of 5+ yards per rush.........is just terrible math and it's hard to justify NOT doing that when you use such a valuable chip on a RB. Of course Taylor fell down below Devin Singletary in terms of ypr last year so he's not the "but what about THIS great RB" example du jour anymore. So much for the "get 5 great years and let him walk" formula. 😂

Only changes I'd make is that Mingo would be #5 on my list and AT Perry would be off entirely. After the round 1 guys I pretty much bounce up to early 3rd round or later values but I think you are right that those round 2 guys go round 2.

Yeah, I've mentioned it before but JSN's bro had his minor league baseball ascent in the Yankees organization slowed by leg injuries so it was always in the back of my mind that JSN might as well. Sometimes less muscle = less muscle to injure.

Slot-only is not a need. They addressed that with Harty........who got paid like a starting slot WR unlike the flyers they took last season. What they need is an outside receiver who can be GREAT at slot. That's Stefon Diggs.........if they add another boundary threat. I thought I spelled that out pretty clearly but apparently not.

And regardless of THAT, the Chiefs allowed the most passing TD's in the entire NFL. Their offense carried them to a SB. I'm not sold that either of them will be tremendous but it was understood that McDuffie was further along in his development........perhaps in part because he's around 16 months older. But Elam has the higher ceiling due to greater length and ball skills........and in round 1 the higher ceiling is my preference.

When teams get 7 years of control over rookies again then maybe something like that brand of football will return. So I guess root for an apocalypse. Until then RB's are pretty close to worthless in todays game.

Actually I think next years WR class will probably be worse. This one lacks a sure thing at the top but I think that the rest of the class is getting docked a bit for that. Guys like JSN and Addison would have been first rounders in a strong WR draft coming off their 2021 performances had they been in the draft of 2022, IMO. Others in this class like Xavier Hutchinson were getting some buzz as early rounders going into January last year prior to opting to stay in school. Yeah.........you aren't likely to get a Tee Higgins late 1 or early 2 this year but it's not a class of bums at WR. And this might be a year where you can include a couple TE's as receivers if your OC promises to utilize them. I think the likelihood at this point(based on boards that aren't really reflective of the teams themselves) is that the best value available to the Bills at a premium position at #27 will be edge rusher. I don't love that it falls down that way but you shouldn't Cody-Ford yourself as an organization because you perceive a need at a non-premium position matters. They kinda' don't.........and with one injury almost any position could be a glaring need 4-6 months from now so needs to me really aren't that compelling on draft day.

Pat Kirwan hasn't aged a day.

I think different analytics show different results. Yeah, that BR article indicates that OL are only second slowest to develop compared to CB. How they come up with that data I have no idea though. But what I think we know without a doubt is that OL is the worst quality position group across the entire NFL. Most fan bases are very dissatisfied with their OL. The reason why is not complicated IMO..........they are the worst athletes on the field so they need to develop excellent technique to not get beaten by the better athletes lining up across from them. Getting there takes time.

The usual premium positions.......LT, pass rusher, receiver or CB. LT is likely out of the question at 27 but there are options at the other 3. You can't cover up those positions they are edge/island positions where an individual player can really make a huge difference for the team. So there are plenty of options that don't include guards, runnin' bax, RT's, off-ball LB's or safeties.

The obsession with the right tackle position on here is just another case of TSW obsession with positions that don't really move the needle wrt wins and losses.

The problem is that it's a general consensus among OL coaches that most young OL are a liability until year 3. Whoever the Bills draft in round 1 or 2 to play OL will likely be terrible and not be better than the veteran option on the roster in 2023. There are exceptions but you have to be prepared to grade on a curve and as a SB contender we will not be down with that. If they took Wright or Bergeron, for example, they would likely get a season out of them like they got from the injury-recovering Spencer Brown last season. OL is a long term play. Ideally whoever they take does not have to play much next season. WR on the other hand........yeah they often take half a season to adjust but they can be more impactful as rookies. Individually speaking I think a WR taken in round 1-3 is more likely to have a positive impact in year 1.

You can ALWAYS afford to wait on a slot-only WR in the draft. And it's also not a need. They have a slot-only in Harty. The reality is that they don't need a slot-only WR at all.........they need a boundary WR to bump Davis back to WR3 where he belongs. And that WR2 will hopefully have some slot flexibility or if not then at least it would still allow Diggs to be in the slot and get the free release opportunities that slot receivers get and better matchups.