billsfan89

In a league with a salary cap there is only so much money to go around so the ability to break the market is just not there as much.

Here is my take Best Performing Rookie: Torrence - I think Kincaid will have a nice impact but I think Torrence is going to be a plug-and-play guard. Offensive non-skill position MVP: Mitch - I think Mitch is going to put in another solid season. I think that not only will he play well but I think he will help get McGovern up to speed in a new system and help Torrence in his rookie campaign. Best Running Back: Cook - I think Cook is going to break out if he can stay healthy 15-18 carries per game will lead to heavier numbers and better production. Offensive Dark Horse: Trent Sheffield - I was torn between Shakir and Sheffield. But I think Sheffield has shown more in the off-season and while I don't think he is going to have a huge season but I think he will have a nice impact with 500 + yards and 40ish receptions which for a WR4 is solid production. Defensive Dark Horse: AJ Epenesa - He quietly had 6.5 sacks last season but for whatever reason those sacks somehow didn't make him stand out. I think he has a similar sack total (6-8 sacks) but his sacks are more impactful and he makes plays in run defense. He is in a contract year and started his NFL career during the Covid off-season and was asked to shed a lot of weight. He struggled heavily his first two years and then had a better third season. With one more off-season under his belt and the motivation of getting a contract, I think he shows out a bit. Defensive MVP: Tre White - I think White comes back to his All-Pro form. He has by all accounts looked good in the off-season and is now more removed from his ACL injury. He also got a chance to play towards the end of last season so mentally he has knocked off the rust but now physically may be there. Player Most Likely to Underperform: Jordan Poyer - Both safeties are coming off seasons where they were hurt or banged up and both are older players. Both are into their 30's. I think Poyer will regress. I still think he will be a decent safety but just not the All-Pro or Pro-Bowl caliber player he has consistently been.

The Bills the past three seasons have had the roster to contend but have come up short three times for various reasons. 2020 - Got to the AFCCG but lost to a more experienced KC team. The Bills also suffered injuries to literally all of their receivers by the time they got to the AFCCG. Beasley go hurt to end the regular season, John Brown battled an ankle injury, Gabe Davis got hurt against the Ravens and Diggs got hurt early in the AFCCG. The only healthy receiver was Mac for most of that game. So combined with the relative inexperience of the team and the injuries to the WR corps led to a bad showing against the defending champions. 2021 - 13 seconds cost this team a real shot at the Super Bowl. Had the Bills simply been able to Squibb the ball or make one decent defensive play they would have gone to host the AFCCG against a Bengals team that had a terrible offensive line. 2021 was simply a choke by this team and inexcusable. 2022 - The Bills despite the talent they had and hosting the game in the divisional round simply ran out of gas from an emotionally exhausting season. Even before Hamlin's situation, they started the off-season with the Topps shooting and then ended training camp with the passing of Knox's younger brother. Then in season they had a game relocated due to a freak snowstorm (which coincided with a flu outbreak) and then had their Christmas day travel nearly thrown off due to another bad snow storm. They also had a decent amount of "normal" football adversity including seeing Dane get carted off in the home opener and had a lot of nagging injuries early on plus serious season-ending injuries to Hyde and Von both vet leaders on the team. THEN you had the Hamlin situation and the team was just out of gas mentally which I honestly think is understandable. The 2022 Bills probably had the most adversity off the field as any team individually has had since the 2007 Redskins who had Sean Taylor die in season tragically and the 2005 Saints who had to relocate right before the season started due to Hurricane Katrina. As far as team-building errors? The front office did as good of a job as they could realistically do from 2017-2020. The 2017 and 2018 drafts were outstanding and the 2019 draft was solid. 2020 they pulled off the much-needed "big move" with the Diggs trade. But I think the errors this team made started in 2021 and 2022 with over-investing in the defense. 2021 they could have spent the Boogie pick on offense and 2022 they could have invested the Elam and Bernard picks onto the offense. The team also could have spent the Von Miller cash on a big offensive weapon. No front office is perfect but investing most of your premium picks on defense and your biggest free agency contract on defense was a mistake. They have somewhat changed that with the first two picks being on offense in 2023. TLDR: 2020 the team was still getting experience and had an abnormal amount of WR injuries, 2021 was a complete choke and in 2022 the team was drained due to an emotionally exhausting season.

When Netflix made streaming video easier and at a cheap price piracy went down a lot but once there became 1000 streaming services that cost nearly as much as cable used to then people just went back to piracy

12-5 seems like a good projection. I like the Bills flying under the radar this season. I think offensively they are way better. Much stronger along the interior offensive line and Kincaid and the smaller adds at WR will make a difference. The team is also still strong defensively and on special teams so thinking they will not be above 10 wins just makes little sense to me.

Bills cutting their losses on this one. I am glad that McBeane is able to do so. There was a log jam at DE. Even with Von on the PUP you had Floyd, Shaq, Groot and AJ there. You then have Von coming back whose going to displace someone on the roster if they were carrying five DE's. Shorten the rotation a bit and see how those four play. Getting even just a late round pick back and stock up on the 2024 draft where you will need to acquire more cheap talent to replace some of the aging components on the team.

I generally agree that RB is not a position I would invest massive resources into as I think offensive line is a much better investment for those cap dollars. But keeping a great top 5-7 RB at a cost is not always a bad idea in certain circumstances.

There have been some RB's who got a big contract after their rookie deals and played well in recent years. Derrick Henry - Signed a 4 year 50 million dollar deal after the 2019 season. He rushed for 2k yards in 2020 and then after an injury-shortened 2021 (where he still nearly pushed 1k yards) he pushed over 1500 yards in 2022. About 2.5 seasons of production and could still add to that. LeSean McCoy - Signed a pair of big contracts starting in 2012 with a 45 million dollar deal and then got a 5 year 50 million dollar deal in 2015 with the Bills. From 2012 to 2017 Shady had 4 seasons with over 1k yards including leading the league in rushing in 2013. Alvin Kamara - Signed a big extension in 2020 off-season, has more or less performed the way he did from 2017-2019 being a key part of NOLA's offense. Nick Chubb - Signed a big extension prior to 2021 and has turned in a pair of big seasons in 2021 and 2022. Dalvin Cook - Prior to the 2020 season he signed a massive extension. From 2020 to 2022 he rushed for 1k yards on 4.4 yards per carry average or better. Including a very impressive 1500+ yard season in 2020. While there have been examples like Lev Bell and Zeke where second RB contracts have flopped. There have been plenty that have delivered.

This place is hyperbolic and all over the place, I love it and hate it.

Really hope McGovern is good to go, but good to see Edwards get snaps with the starting crew. It's good to get these guys some play together in the pre-season.

Purdy is the right guy at the right time on the right team. He doesn’t need to be an “elite” QB to win with the 49ers. He can be a Jimmy G game manager plus on that team and win a lot of games esp on a dirt cheap contract. Not sure if he will have a better career trajectory than Jimmy G but had Jimmy G simply been healthy he would still be there.

I wouldn’t do it, Lance’s cap hit is fairly high for a backup Qb, I don’t know how his cap hit would change if traded (but the Bills can’t afford a project backup QB with a large cap hit) so unless the Niners are willing to eat most of his cap the trade just doesn’t make sense for the Bills. At that point I would rather go with Kyle Allen, It’s not like Keenam did all that much while here anyway

Given that he did not leave the field I am thinking It may just be a sprained knee with time left between the start of the season and now he should get some time needed to rest It and be 100% or close to start the season

The interior offensive line has looked good and solid, the tackles are a concern but Dawkins is usually solid (although his conditioning is a concern) and Spencer Brown has looked better than he is portrayed to be. I do suspect a top pick will be spent at tackle or center next draft to further boost the offensive line and get younger/deeper there. But this past season there was a legitimate attempt to improve the offensive line

Torrence and Kincaid were the best players in the draft at their position both should be plugged in right away. Williams should be worked in with Klein at MLB and hopefully he will take things over. Shakir will get worked in as he progresses.

Football is the most volatile sport. If you get the chance to be the number one pick (which comes with a fairly hefty guarantee) you take it, don't look back don't hold out for another team. Just take the money and run, if you really want to play for a different team hit free agency or ask for a trade. But secure the bag while you can.

I think splitting time between Klein and Dorian makes sense. I think you have to live with rookie mistakes early on and let him roll so that hopefully late in the season he comes on strong

PFF has graded out Dawkins in the 70's (which indicates above average to good play) every season he has been in the league except his rookie year and 2018 (His rookie year he was graded out as a very impressive 83 and in 2018 he was 69.9 which is right at the above average line). To my eye test Dawkins every year has been a solid LT. Not an elite player but a better than average starter at a premium position. Now I am concerned that he might be putting on weight as he pushes 30 and he is coming off a bad pre-season game. It's three weeks until the regular season, hopefully, it was just a bad game for Dawkins and maybe he can lose a little weight and get in a bit better shape in these upcoming weeks.

Dawkins is the 15th highest paid tackle. He performs well above average for the position. Seems like they are paying him appropriately…

The Jets played the Bills fairly tight last season in both games, I thought it would be a tight one regardless of what happened in pre-season. I don't personally put too much stock in what happened against the Steelers. As far as the starters went the Bills defense let up a big play and the ST let up a big return. The offense was hurting itself badly with penalties and Dawkins bad play. But I don't expect the ST unit to be bad once all pieces are in place and I think the defense will hopefully be more sharpe once they play a more aggressive gameplan. My main concern with the offense is Dawkins and Brown and the lack of depth behind them. Brown actually didn't look bad against the Steelers from my eye test hopefully he is decent, but Dawkins looks slow. I heard how out of shape he has been looking but I never saw it manifest in live rounds so to speak. Seeing how slow off the jump he was really makes me concerned. Hopefully Dawkins with 3 weeks left to go in the season he can maybe get himself in better shape. I know 3 weeks isnt' a ton of time to get in shape but it is enough time to improve your conditioning by a considerable measure. If Dawkins can just give you what you got last year from him I am pretty comfortable with the offensive line generally speaking as I do think that even if Brown is bad they can work around it but if both tackles are bad that's going to cause a lot of issues and the Bills should make big moves to address it.

Generally speaking, I like it. I think players and coaches do need the pre-season. I think you need a few "live rounds" going into the regular season. I liked the old 4 game pre-season format as starters got ramped up pretty naturally. Under the old 4 pre-season game format the flow of starters playing went... Game 1 some starters played a series or two. Game 2 starters played a quarter plus Game 3 was the "dress rehearsal" for the regular season starters played the first half and the first two drives of the second half. Game 4 starters did not play I felt like under that format the starters really got themselves ready for the regular season. But with one less game I am not sure if there is any uniformity to how coaches approach things.

I just have a feeling the Bills will carry Isabella on the roster. I think he knows this is his last chance to make an NFL roster and he is putting everything he has into it and thus far it is showing. I also think the Hines injury has opened up a need for a returner which is something he seemingly excels at. He is still fairly young and maybe has learned from his four years in the league. If not I do think that if his strong per-season/camp performance continues he will continue his NFL career as he will be on a teams PS.

Wasn't the issue with Peters that he wanted a new deal entering into the 2008 season but because they had 3 years left on his deal they didn't want to redo it? So Peters basically played 2008 disgruntled and then with two years left just said I want out completely? I think had the Bills paid Peters in the 2008 off-season he would have stayed. That being said I do generally agree that even if they paid Peters what he wanted it wasn't going to make the difference from 2008 to 2017. The Bills were more than a great LT away from contending. From 2009 to 2011 the Bills struggled to find a Peters replacement but from 2012 to 2016 they had Cordy Glenn who was a good LT and from 2017 to present they had Dion Dawkins a good LT. So it wasn't like the Bills for many seasons Peters possibly would have been here didn't at least get above-average play at his position. I would have loved for Peters to have been here but at least the Bills got a good starting center for him and it wasn't like the team wasn't going to win with him as some sort of last missing piece.

I don't think the Bills being "linked" to Peters is based on any inside information. I think people just look at the news of Shell retiring and then link that to Peters saying he will play again (on top of Peters's connection to Buffalo). It's all likely speculation based on nothing much if you ask me. Now as for would I mind Peters on the Bills? That's going to depend on what the coaches think of Doyle, Queese and the developmental tackles. If they think Peters represents an upgrade worth paying for then it could make sense. Sign Peters to be the 10th O-linemen or on the PS to mentor the younger players and be there to maybe handle a few starts if there are injuries.

I must be missing something about Dawkins because I think he will be the starting LT in 2024. He is under contract for one more year at a very reasonable salary for his production (He will be roughly the 15-17th highest-paid tackle in 2024 as he is 15th currently) and his level of production is still good. He will be age 30 next season and 30 is an age where tackles are still very productive. Why are people projecting that Dawkins will not be on the roster in 2024? The Bills are tight against the cap but if they do some simple restructuring and cut Hines they will be in a similar position to where they were this past off-season (a little room to work with maybe add one or two mid-level players like McGovern and some smaller additions) so they won't need to cut Dawkins for cap purposes. The Bills have many options to go cap-wise if they are tight (like cutting Mitch and Harty on top of the restructurings) Are people projecting Dawkins to really stink it up in 2023? Is he that bad in camp? I am genuinely asking because this is something I am seeing a lot of people saying similar things about Dawkins but I am not so sure where these projections are coming from. I do think the Bills will sink a second-round pick again into the offensive line either at RT or (If Brown shows up and plays well this season) at LT but more so for a Dawkins longer-term replacement instead of an immediate starter. I think the Bills plan generally speaking is to roll with Dawkins for one more season at a minimum and then develop a replacement for at least a season.