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Everything posted by billsfan89
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Trump To Address The Nation Tonight
billsfan89 replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
IF Trump is evoking his emergency powers to appropriate funds for a wall its a non-starter as it will get challenged in court and take years to get resolved. So I can't see it going anywhere. -
I say this as someone who has never bought season tickets for any team. But do you have a deadline to renew? If so what's the deadline? If I were buying tickets I would personally wait to see the teams off-season moves before renewing (at least free agency.) But then again I am cheap and hate spending money to see a bad team play.
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Josh Allen advanced metrics darling?
billsfan89 replied to Big Turk's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
KB also suffered a massive knee injury his second year and had some more moderate level knee injuries in 2017. I think he lost speed from those injuries which destroyed his effectiveness overall. KB in his rookie year was just fast enough to get a little bit of separation and use his large from to catch passes. But take away even a little bit of his speed due to injury and he had zero speed relative for a NFL WR. -
Josh Allen advanced metrics darling?
billsfan89 replied to Big Turk's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Craftiness is a big part of running that gets overlooked. But that being said I hope Allen slides more in 2019. I think Allen needs to play more carefully in general. Yes he is a bigger guy so his durability might be more than a RGIII or Lamar Jackson type. But Allen's running should only be a complement to his game as opposed to a central part of it. Allen has the passing tools to be a top 5 QB in the league (Granted he has a lot of improvements to make to get there) but if he gets hurt diving for a few yards that's far more detrimental to him. -
Josh Allen advanced metrics darling?
billsfan89 replied to Big Turk's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
That's true, training for a 40 time can help shave off a tenth of a second or so. But while I do think that Allen plays faster than his 40 time of 4.75 I don't think he is as fast as some would have you believe. I think he game speed is probably closer to his 40 than to Cam Newton (esp Cam when he first got into the league) or some other faster QB's. -
Josh Allen advanced metrics darling?
billsfan89 replied to Big Turk's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Kiko had a major knee injury since running his 40 after college. So I am not sure just how accurate you can compare Kiko's 40 time from 2013 to Allen's 40 time in 2018 esp factoring in the injury. That being said Allen does look to play faster than his 40 time. I don't know why that's the case. -
Is Malik Jackson worth a look?
billsfan89 replied to BeastMode54's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
He is most likely getting cut. The Jags are in cap hell and they have so much money invested on the D-line and there are several big contract players who underperformed. Dareus and Jackson in particular are 10+ million dollar contract players who are coming off of down years. C.Campbell might also get cut despite having a productive season (10.5 sacks) but his cap hit is huge at 16 million with a 15 million dollar savings if cut. Although I suspect that they will try and restructure his deal since he is still rather productive. -
How Much Pressure Was Doug Whaley Under To Win?
billsfan89 replied to BillyWhiteShows's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I know Whaley was still here in 2017 when Poyer, Hyde, and Haush were added but so was McD who had to have a significant hand in those signings. So while the 2018 free agency crop was a bust its not like McD can't identify some talent. I agree though, they only had 3-4 contracts above 3 million aav last off-season. Hard to judge them off of that. -
How Much Pressure Was Doug Whaley Under To Win?
billsfan89 replied to BillyWhiteShows's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I think once Pegula took over he inherited a 9-7 team with cap space. Whaley was probably under a big win now end the drought pressure from ownership. Trading for Shady, signing Clay, resigning Dareus and Glenn to massive deals and taking on somewhat volatile players like InCog, Percy Harvin, and others were all massive win now moves. I think overall his moves worked to improve the offense but some injuries and Rex's system then turned around and ruined the defense. Outside of Star those deals aren't major (Star's deal is hard to get out of until 2021.) Murphy's hit in 2019 is 3.5 million and Vonta will have not impact in 2019. Overall the current regime has not taken on many major contracts both in terms of resigning talent and free agent talent. -
Its all about context but devoid of catastrophic injuries and other factors I think 9 wins is a must. Playoffs can often be driven by other factors (would you fire a coach that went 10-6 but missed the playoffs?) But I think given the assumed spending on players in free agency and another draft class you have to assume a 3 game improvement is a reasonable standard to have.
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Lorax - should he be extended?
billsfan89 replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Lorax also has been mostly a special teams player for most of his career. Before coming to Buffalo he had logged 16 starts in 11 previous seasons. So I think its fair to think he could have 1-2 more good years left. He was the second best pass rusher on the team and considering he won't come super expensive (I can't see him commanding more than 6 million on a 1-2 year deal) it is worth it in my mind to bring him back. -
You need at least an above average defense to win consistently in the playoffs. When the Colts won in 2006 they had a upper mid level defense and an offense that was great but not nearly as great as it had been in past record setting years. In the NFL once you get to the playoffs you will likely face multiple balanced teams that bring good defense and good offenses to the game. If you don't have a balanced team you will perish.
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Should the Bills make a run at C.J. Uzomah [TE]?
billsfan89 replied to DefenseWins's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I wouldn't be opposed to signing him and cutting Clay, cutting Clay saves 4.5 million, even if CJ commands 7 million aav I think its worth spending the 2.5 million to upgrade the position. Too many holes to fill on offense with just draft picks. -
The issue for the Bills primarily is that there isn't a great market at RT, TE, and WR in free agency. There are good interior O-line players, corners, and pass rushers which is where I think the primary focus of free agency dollars should go towards. Don't overpay just to get the best of a subpar market. Although I think WR might be worth overpaying for to get at least a solid vet since a 2nd round WR might not have a high end impact.
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I would really not like Greedy Williams (I think the coaching staff is good at finding good CB's later in the draft as shown by T.Johnson and Levi Wallace, even EJ Gaines was a bit of a find as a throw in player in a trade.) But a young pass rusher with some impact would both fill a need and further lay a foundation for the defense. I think you can find a RT in round 2 and address WR via trade or free agency.
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I think an RT is a premium position not that much less valuable than LT in the modern NFL. So if you have an elite RT prospect who might not be great on the left side I think its not a bad pick to secure the RT spot. But I think that the value at RT is not there at pick 9 and unless there is a trade down its probably a D-line player at pick 9.
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The more I evaluate the draft the more I think pick 9 will be a D-line player, which while not a drastic need would be a need (I think the pass rush needs a shot in the arm and the D-line needs more younger players, besides Shaq and Phillips all the other D-line players are older players.) I wouldn't mind at all a RT as I think this philsophy that if you draft a RT at 9 its such a reach if they can't be swung back over to the left side is foolish. RT is a premium position in the modern NFL. A lot of the top pass rushers in the NFL rush against the right side. You need 5 top O-line players and they are all becoming harder to find. So while being able to shift over to the left side is a positive trait it isn't a make or break in my opinion.
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Occasi-Cortez Channeling the Rent's too damn high guy
billsfan89 replied to bdutton's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
She is the darling of alternative progressive media and makes headlines from right wingers who love to bash her. I think she has to be aware that she isn't going to get anything done legislatively (If not she really is a dumb dumb) but she doesn't have to get anything done legislatively to stay relevant and accomplish her aims. As long as she can make it seem like she is pushing a true progressive agenda she can continue to push that narrative in the alternative media and keep her platform. Its honestly a savvy strategy to sort of hit the brick wall hard and then B word about it. It taps into the anti-establishment fever that got Trump elected and is poison for establishment candidates on the left and right. If she wants to push the Democratic party towards a more populist agenda winning the battle in the media is the way to go because her impact as a freshman congresswoman isn't going to do anything. -
I can't imagine Teller not being able to play on the right side. Guards are much more interchangeable from left to right and right to left in general than tackles.
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You could move Teller to the right side and sign a veteran LG and C. That way Dawkins and Teller both have a veteran presence next to them.
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Keep in mind that 2016 and 2017 were really down years so the NFL ratings might be up 5% from 2017 but they still haven't recovered from the dips of the previous two seasons. That being said the NFL gaining back 5% of their audience is a good thing no matter how you slice it. They stopped the bleeding their own terrible management caused and gained back some of their losses. I am not sure if they will ever get back to their peak of 2015 just due to the younger generation's interest in all sports fading. But the NFL still certainly is a ratings machine.
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2019 NFL Draft: Bills officially picking 9th
billsfan89 replied to Virgil's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
His 2018 wasn't that much of a decline when you adjust for the fact that he missed 4 games although he didn't take the leap a lot of people expected. I don't know about Oliver. It seems like he went from potential 1st overall pick and lock top 5 pick to being farther down due to concerns about his ability to be a 3 down player. People going into 2018 were thinking that he could be like Aaron Donald but now its seeming like he is a high risk high reward pick as the doubts are a serious concern. I actually wouldn't mind the Bills taking him at 9 because the pass rush and youth along the D-line is lacking (Outside of Shaq and Phillips who are far from great players there is mostly vets along the D-line.) With Star and Phillips being bigger players more effective against the run (and I think you can sign Jordan Phillips to bolster the rotation) I think you can afford to take a chance on a high end pass rush specialist. Oliver could be a passing down player along side J.Phillips and Henry and Star could do the early down dirty work. -
Dawkins to me is a solid LT who as the ability to be a good LT. I don't think Dawkins would be as good on the right side for whatever reason (He didn't look that good at RT his rookie year once he switched to LT his rookie year he looked much better.) So I don't mind selecting a RT at pick 9. Both tackle positions are equally as important since so many top edge rushers rush off the right side. All O-line positions are becoming premium positions. So if a guy looks like a stud RT and there aren't elite pass rushers available at pick 9 then go with the RT (Assuming there is no trade down available.)
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Yup and if an elite talent falls there has to be a reason why you wouldn't want to just draft that player instead? If there are QB's and you have a QB that tends to be the most likely reason to get a haul for a trade down. There are Julio Jones situations and the Bills even benefited from the Tavon Austin trade considerably. But rarely do teams make massive trade ups for non-QB players. So unless the Bills at pick 9 get extremely lucky with a team coveting a player more than the Bills I don't see a trade down as likely.