billsfan89

I think 12 is more realistic, but I could see some team massively over bidding. Sammy and Allen Robinson got 16 per and there are more teams looking to get weapons for young QB's.

It is a hard contract to get out of until 2021 (in 2020 its a 7.8 million dollar cap hit, even post June first that would be 3.9 a season for 2 seasons.) And even in 2021 the cap penalty is 5 million although you could spread that over 2 seasons to ease it out if needed. I am not going to defend the contract as I think it was a massive overpay and might be an albatross once 2017 and 2018 draft guys need extensions. However for people to act like Star bring zero or negative value to the team is just flat out wrong. Star is a positive for the team and while I think you can find what he offers cheaper it is not as though what he offers isn't needed along the D-line. But if Star in 2019 and 2020 plays to the same level he did in 2018 I think the value he brings to the team will be enough to at least call the contract a productive overpay. And luckily D-line players tend to play well for longer than some other positions.

I think he gets at worst 12 million aav and could get as high as 14-15 million aav. Personally I am not sure which vet WR the Bills will land. T.Williams and Tate are going to command huge money, I am not sure who else is really good on the market, John Brown will get paid close to 10 million aav not sure if he is a quality WR2 or not. There doesn't seem to be much else on the market other than Cole Beasely or maybe a released veteran like DeSean Jackson.

He is going to command number one WR money. Wither or not he is worth it he is worth that is irrelevant because free agents almost always get overpaid and there are a ton of teams with lots of cap space that need WR's to pair with young QB's.

Personally if I were the GM I would waive him. 7 million in cap savings is huge and I would rather spend that money elsewhere and draft a RB and get a mid-level free agent who would cost much less. BUT if you are going to keep him then I think he is better served as a uber third down back. Draft a young guy for early downs, use Ivory (if you don't cut him) for short yardage, and have Shady only be in on 2nd and long and 3rd down. Use him similar to how NOLA uses Kamura. Overall I think Shady can be effective if his role is dramatically shifted, but if the Bills think they can get one more year out of him as a full time back they are sadly mistaken.

Star might be overpaid for his style of play but its not like he isn't a productive player who has a role in the defense. The Bills rush defense was 16th in 2018, that's not bad but hardly enough to write home about except when you factor in the Bills were 29th in 2017. Star wasn't the only reason for the Bills improvement there but he was a major factor for the Bills considerable improvement. So yes is Star worth 11 million in 2019? No, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value to the defense.

Players go to markets for the following reasons. 1- Money 2- Winning/Team Culture 3- Market/City Culture The Bills with their ownerships willingness to spend and in their current salary cap position can compete with anyone on the money front. But while McD's playoff appearance and shifting of the organization culture has started to move the needle the Bills are not perceived to be a winning organization just yet so organizations like New England, Seattle, and more established winning teams are going to have an edge if a player is interested in winning. However this is something that can change if Allen pans out and the team makes the playoffs again in 2019. However Buffalo is a third tier NFL city. Don't get me wrong I love Buffalo but its not a cultural hub the same way LA, NYC, Chicago, or to a lesser degree Miami is and the weather in the city is much less appealing than Southern cities like Houston or even Tampa Bay. These things aren't as important as money or winning but they do play a factor for players choosing teams. That being said thanks to ownership willing to spend money is not an issue (The cap could be) and if the team starts to win then the opportunity to win will not be a negative. Get those two things in place and your teams roadblock of not being in a sexy market isn't that big. The issue is that Buffalo is a cold weather city and not an apex media center like NYC or Chicago. So while I do think that the Bills Mafia has added something to the culture of the team and Buffalo as a city is on a general upswing it still isn't going to be looked at as a super sexy market for players. However with an owner willing to spend once you start to win you won't have that hard a time recruiting players to a winning situation. Even in the early 2000's under Donahue the Bills signed pretty big free agents like Sam Adams, Spikes, and Fletcher.

They haven't put much resources into signing players on offense. They spent so little on offensive players the past two off-seasons. Their bigger moves and signings have skewed more towards the defense for sure. So is it a matter of them outright sucking or simply not having put the big dollars into it? I am not saying you are wrong but I think any GM whose biggest AAV signing was 3 million would have a hard time finding players there.

They also drafted Allen, found Foster undrafted, drafted Dawkins, and Teller might be a find later in the draft so its not all negative. I think they have to be better BUT they have not had an offensive signing greater than 3 million dollars. So its a bit hard to say they won't be able to upgrade the offense given more resources. Its not that you can't find players on the cheap on offense but rather that it is harder to do so when you are bargain basement shopping. I am skeptical of the front office's ability to sign free agents but I would say that the context of them not having many high AAV signings does give you some context that maybe if they actually had money to spend the results could be better.

The McBeane regime hasn't had a major free agent signing above 3 million aav on the offensive side of the ball. The only major move they made was KB which while a bust is only a singular move made at the trade deadline. So I can't really say how good or bad this regime is when it comes to signing offensive talent because for the most part they have gone shopping in the bargain bin.

Not every team has the same amount of cap space, cap commitments and draft picks. The Bills have a top 10 pick and extra mid to late round selections, its not an Oakland Raiders type amount of picks but still a nice set of picks to work with and the Bills have a top 3 amount of cap space to work with. So its fair to say the Bills have a great set of tools to work with in order to construct a roster.

If the Bills make zero roster improvements in 2019 then yes their talent level is currently that of a 6ish win team. But you have to be a huge hack writer to make projections before free agency has even started.

10 years ago it used to be that RT was the second most important position along the O-line because most of the pass rushing pressure was from edge rushers. Most interior D-line players 10 years ago were rush defenders or guys pushing up the pocket eating up sacks via QB's stepping up from the edge rush. Now I think LT is still the premium position but by less of a margin. I think all the other positions RT, C, and G have about equal value.

I think the O-line and D-line game is getting smaller, similar to what happened to the NBA with big men. Oliver would be a steal at pick 9, the reason Donald fell to the mid first round was mostly due to concerns about him being undersized. I don't think the Oliver Donald comparison is necessarily accurate but I think Oliver could be a very dynamic DT.

10 years ago it used to be that LT was the top position along the O-line and was by far the most expensive position to secure while RT was a distant second and the interior players were viewed as pretty easy to find. Now its a different story. Defenses are rushing the QB along all positions along the edge and interior. College football is not turning out NFL ready linemen at a high rate due to changes in the college football game. So now all offensive line positions are hard to find and very important. I would still say that LT is the highest premium but the gap has shrunken considerably.

I would rather have a top 5 offense with a top 15 defense than the reverse. This is an offensively driven league now. You do need defense (at least a decent mid level defense) and special teams but you have to be able to put up points. Is it possible we could see a generational defense like Seattle 2013 or Denver 2015 win a Super Bowl with a limited offense? Yes, exceptions do happen. But it is more likely that more than likely that 8-9 of the next Super Bowl winners will boast a top 5 offense, with a lot of them having defenses ranked outside the top 10.

Oliver would be a good pick. Some compare him to Donald but he doesn't have the same strength as Donald and his size is a bit smaller. I still think that he could be an outright great interior pass rusher and at pick 9 would be a risk worth taking as I think the interior pass rush is a more intimidate need than the edge.

Edge rusher is both a long term need and a short term need. The team desperately needs more from their pass rush and it is an aging unit outside of Lawson. I would rather an interior player but if a top tier D-line player is available then go with them.

The market for a QB trade down isn't great but a lower top 10 pick (as the Bills have) could be an interesting spot where some mid-level teams try to trade up. I don't think a trade down will resort in a huge haul but a 2nd rounder and a late rounder to trade down 6-9 spots would be a very nice return.

I would love to see the Bills be super aggressive in free agency. I think 2 high end OL starters and a front line WR would be an excellent way to build some talent leading into the draft. I would also like to see a pass rusher added to the mix on defense. But I think more realistically they go with one big OL move, one mid-level WR move, and some mid-level depth moves. I just don't see McBeane wanting to go that aggressive in free agency.

The Rams were a historically bad offense Goff's rookie year and the years proceeding. In the 2017 off-season they spent big adding Witworth and Sullivan on the offensive line and added Woods and Sammy to their receiving core. In the draft despite not having a 1st round pick they added Gerald Everett and Cooper Kupp to the receiving core. The Rams went from one of the leagues worst to leagues best offenses with little more than Goff, Gurley, and Saffold in place. The essentially remade their WR core and heavily upgraded their O-line in a single swoop. That being said big flashy moves are not always the stuff of legends. The Rams contracts to Woods and Sullivan were rather modest, Witworth was their only truly huge signing. Although they did dip into future draft selections to trade for Sammy.

I have no issue in the regular season an offense not seeing the field if a defense yields a TD, its the regular season, get these teams off the field on reasonable terms. I am coming more around to the idea of a post season last licks system but I do not think the current system is as big a travesty as it was when teams would stop trying to score after getting into the redzone in order to preserve a field goal opportunity.

That's a fair point however there will almost always be the possibility that one team will have the ball more unless you always give the other team the chance to respond even after 3 or more possessions. If lets say you win the coin toss score a TD, then the other team gets a possession scores a TD, and the team that won the toss scores again does the game end? If so one team got an additional possession. I think you could make an argument in the post season maybe there should be last licks. But in the regular season in the interest of avoiding ties and additional injuries I think the current system is fine.

The current rules are fine, a TD is a significant score to give up. It was a travesty under the old rules where a field goal on the first possession would end the game. A field goal is a partial victory for the defense and thus giving up one on the opening possession is not sufficient enough to make a game end without the other team having the ball. The current rules are fine, don't give up a TD ever, if you give up a field goal that's a partial defensive victory, that should not on the first possession end the game. Also OP the Saints possessed the ball in OT and they turned it over.

Bruce Smith is the obvious choice, he is a trans-formative player and the best player in franchise history. That being said the more interesting question is which offensive player in Bills history would you want to pair with Allen? To me that would be Jason Peters. Peters would dramatically improve the offensive line and be a decade plus anchor there. I would also love to see Moulds, Lee Evan, Thurman, and Ruben Brown too. Lee never made a pro-bowl but with that speed dam what things he could do with a cannon armed QB like Josh.