billsfan89

18 is a fair ranking, I would say that anywhere from 15-20 is fair for him.

I do feel like Kapernick was an at least decent starting caliber QB from 2012-2014 but I don't know if it was NFL defenses catching up to him or the 49ers steep drop in talent in those years. In 2012-2013 the 49ers were one of the deepest most talented teams in the league and Kapernick was able to get them deep into the playoffs. In 2014 the 49ers talent declined but they were still decent in Harbaugh's last year. In 2014 Kapernick had arguably his best season even as the team's talent declined. But in 2015 and 2016 the team got old, lost a lot of talent, and lost one of the best coaches in the league. It wasn't a coincidence that Kapernick's play fell rapidly when the 49ers became one of the worst teams in the league. I am not saying that had Kapernick not had any of this political drama that he would have gone onto play for another team in 2017 and beyond and revived his career. I think for that to happen Kapernick would have had to have found himself in a perfect situation where he could have been on a good team and backed up an established vet for a year or two before taking over long term or simply been a backup on a great team and taken over for an injured starter. More than likely Kapernick would have found himself on a bad or mid-level team keeping the seat warm for a rookie or up and coming QB, he would have started on and off. I think most likely he would have had a very Ryan Fitzpatrick like career where he has 6-7 good games in a row and then reverts back to bad play. A fringe starter high end backup caliber player. But I do wonder had he been able to redshirt for a year (so to speak) and come back on a good team would he have had some good seasons?

If Kapernick is going to come back he is going to have to find a situation where he can sit for a season unless catastrophic injuries hit. I think Kap has to look for a situation similar to what Michael Vick had after his two year absence stemming from his legal issues. The Eagles had McNabb as the bonafide starter in 2008 and a high draft pick as the backup in Kevin Klob. Vick wasn't going to have to be forced into action that year unless multiple injuries hit. Vick basically redshirted in 2009 before coming back in 2010 and having his best season arguably of his pro-career. I don't know what situation would make sense for Kapernick as I don't know what team has an established QB and a solid backup that would want to take on Kapernick as a project at 32 years old?

I agree that the costs of a new stadium aren't worth the "upgrades" (most upgrades are things they charge you to experience) but MetLife is a better stadium not necessarily worth the extra money but it is better. Mainly because the Giants Stadium concourses were so small and the bathrooms so rundown. Getting out onto the concourse was always a traffic jam while the bathrooms were smelly and always clogging due to the run down plumbing of the stadium. MetLife has wider concourses and better facilities. I do agree that renovations are a better avenue for the Bill's. Cheaper and more sensible.

I go back and forth on things. On one hand literally almost everything in life is political and black people in America have very few large platforms outside of sports and entertainment to get their message across. On the other hand it is nice to have something that is just there for pure entertainment value and is relatively apolitical. I think in the end I am fine with political statements in various areas of entertainment as it doesn't hamper my enjoyment at all. But I get why people just want somethings to say politically neutral.

From talking to a lot of Rugby players they say the reason there is less traumatic injuries is mostly due to the fact the game is less territorial than the NFL. In Rugby you just don’t have many situations where a yard or two is make or break. Rugby also has no forward passing or blocking which creates less exposure to awkward body positioning. In Rugby you are also almost consistently moving which creates a lack of momentum down to down. Whereas in the NFL you are constantly resetting yourself in a manner that is conducive to having more collisions and building momentum. As much as people want to say that Rugby is a similar game to the NFL the differences are massive. I don't think the lack of equipment actually serves as much of a deterrent for big hits and the like as much as the nature of the game in and of its self. At least that is what others who play the game have told me.

From my understanding Rugby has less concussions and serious injuries like torn ACL's and other various muscle/bone breaks due to the different nature of the game. I think what really wears down NFL players are the big time collisions and injuries. How many times do you see a player get a serious injury and they are never the same? Especially if that injury occurs later in their NFL career. So while I don't doubt Wade has some wear and tear on his body I would argue that it is less than that of a typical 29 year old NFL player. I don't think Wade could have a long NFL career but I think he could play into his 30's.

It's a different level of wear and tear. Rugby has less high speed collisions and is just a different type of game. I think at age 30 he could realistically have 2ish years in the NFL before his body gives out. I think 7 years of pro rugby is a lot less wear and tear than 7 years of NFL football.

The Browns talent wise are a good team. But their coaching and Baker's mental ability is what gives me pause. They added a pair of tackles to their O-line which should help alleviate their issues there and Hooper adds another weapon. Defensively they are decent too. On paper with a fixed up O-line and a good TE added they should win 9-10 games. But their skill position group is a lot of personalities for a first year HC and young QB to handle. Couple that with expectations and you once again have a scenario where a little bit of losing can snowball easily. I think Cleveland can compete for a Wildcard spot but there is a lot riding on a first year coach yet again. I usually am in favor of hiring up and coming coordinators to coach a team but for the Browns they might have been better served with a more proven HC option short term. It just seems like a far too combustable situation for a rookie HC to be in.

The tag is expensive. You could win multiple playoff games with an above average but not top 10 QB provided he is on a rookie deal and you built a very good team around them. With a tag you are spending 30+ million a season on one position. So while the tag would alleviate the long term commitment it wouldn't hamper your team any less short term.

That would almost be a bad scenario too. If Josh ends up being above average but not a top 10 QB he will command a huge contract that would hamper a team's ability to win with him. It would put the Bill's in that weird position where they have to consider the value of a decent QB relative to a big contract.

Haush at this point in his career reminds me of Ryan Lindel back in the day (relatively speaking) a good kicker inside 45 yards but gets shaky once you get close to 50 yards or beyond. That's not the worst kicker to have as some teams have kickers who struggle with all ranges but it is a handicap to not be able to have a kicker with range. BUT Haush is at least a decent fall back option in case Bass just doesn't have it. I would take a kicker who is 90% from inside 50 and sub 50% above 50 instead of a kicker who could kick 55 but is wildly inconsistent. Haush isn't ideal but he is a decent fall back option in case the new kicker can't handle it.

I wonder what percentage of the NFL's revenue is tied to ticket sales? I would imagine that the NFL's 4 primary sources of revenue are TV, Live Event money (ticket sales and other in stadium deals), sponsorships, and merchandise. I would imagine that most of the revenue that comes in is the TV deal which shouldn't be impacted too much short term. The sponsorships are also fairly stable due to most being on multi-year contracts and while I think merchandise will take a hit I don't think it will be massive. But what percentage is related to live events?

I think they will have to consider cutting Fromm, Josh's tweets were from his high school days, this is supposedly from a year ago. I think if you are really about "The Process" then you have to be serious about character and this is a part of someones character.

The defense can't be that much better in 2020 (and there is no guarantee that the drafted player will be as good as Bucker who was an All-Pro) so there is only likely to be regression. Secondly we are talking about Kittle's targets going down from 2019 levels (a year when the team had 2 quality WR's, the same QB, an elite defense and rushing attack, not much more could deflate your targets) and for that to happen the defense and rushing attack would have to be at or near the top of the league again, the receiver drafted in round 1 would have to replace or exceed Sanders production and the unproven WR's who are both coming off of IR are going to have production levels that are high. Literally everything that could happen would have to happen in one direction for Kittle's targets to go down significantly. You aren't presenting that as a possible scenario but a likely one. Yes if every possible negative circumstance goes against a player their production might dip, but what is the likelihood of all those things going against him? Even if one factor falls the other way his targets shouldn't be highly impacted.

I think Kittle easily retains 90% of his targets at a minimum if he is healthy as a floor and I would say could increase his targets by as much as 15% if the Niners defense regresses and keep in mind he missed 2 games last year and still eclipsed 1,000 yards so I think even with a 10% drop in targets he will still if healthy get 1000 yards. As NewEra said Trent Taylor and Jalen Hurd aren’t going to be that much more of a target drain than their third and fourth receivers had last season. Could a breakout from either player hurt Kittle’s targets? I guess but you would have to also hope that in addition to one of those players breaking out you would also have to hope that Aiyuk also has a season as good as Sanders last season or better which for a rookie WR is a tall order. You would also have to hope that the Niners defense and rushing attack remains at the top of the league. As I said the defense lost one of its best players and has some older players at critical positions and they did have some struggles towards the last 7 games of the season. So yes if two unproven players coming off of IR have good seasons, a rookie WR has a better season than Emmanuel Sanders did last year, the 49ers rushing attack and defense remains among the best in the league than Kittle’s targets might go down significantly. That’s literally everything having to fall one way.

The 49ers were up against the cap, that’s why they didn’t resign Sanders. Of course they are going to say hey we like what we have and not we are kind of ***** due to the cap. If they were so confident in Taylor and Hurd they wouldn’t have drafted a receiver in round 1 esp in a deep receiver class. I don't buy that two players coming off of IR who weren't productive to begin with are suddenly taking away massive targets from Kittle. That's coach speak you aren't seeing through. As for the defense yes they did rebound in the playoffs but I am projecting regression at least modestly. I still think they will be a top 10 defense just not a top 3 defense. One simply due to the loss of Bucker and two due to other players either aging or not having top seasons again. Their defense had a lot of factors go right for them in 2019 and in 2020 I suspect some players will regress due to age or other factors and the loss of Bucker will hurt. If the defense regresses a little bit they will be passing more overall.

I don't know why you seem to think that Taylor and Hurd two players coming off of serious injuries and players who have 0 receptions in the previous season are such massive candidates to take away receptions from one of the game’s best tight ends? You’re putting a lot on faith for those two players to both recover from injury and have production that they have never even come close to before. I get thinking that the team’s first round pick could have an impact but will that impact be greater than what Sanders brought last season (extrapolated per game?) I am not so sure. I think you are projecting out the most optimistic scenario for all 3 of those receivers even despite the fact that one is a rookie and the other two have never been that productive and are coming off of serious injuries. As for the Niners defense they most definitely did fall off towards the final 5 games of the season. They gave up from week 11 on, 26, 8, 20, 46, 29, 31, and 21 points. With their worst performance being the 29 they gave up to Atlanta resulting in a loss that could have cost them home field advantage had they not beat the Seahawks in week 17 in a close game. Compare that to their other 9 games and you see a sharp decline from what they did in their first nine games. I think with the loss of Buckner and some natural regression in their older players they regress from a top defense in the league to a good defense, which should open up more opportunities for their passing game. In fact Kittle had about the same yards in his first 8 games as he did in the last 6 games. Which meant as the defense regressed his yards and receptions per game went up.

Haush found his accuracy inside 49 this past season which has value. But I agree Bass should be able to beat Haush out for the spot. Unless Haush keeps his accuracy and regains his leg or Bass completely ***** the bed I think Bass will be the kicker.

You keep saying "Add 3 more WR" who are these great WR's they are adding? I think you are massively overrating these WR's. It would be a coo for the Niners to get Sanders like production out of their first round pick in year one (For every Deebo there are many who don't make an immediate impact.) You are projecting every single WR on the Niners roster to have seasons way better than they have ever had on an optimist evaluation. From my perspective the Niners swapped Sanders with a 1st round WR and not much else was added. That's not exactly a huge influx of targets taken away from Kittle. I also think that the Niners having an elite defense and running out the clock late is what mostly deflated his stats from his insane 2018 stats not Jimmy G or any other factor. Whereas in 2018 the Niners were playing from behind so often. I am not so sure the Niners defense will be as strong as it was in the first 10-11 weeks of the 2019 season. I don't think it will be bad but I don't think it will be an all time great defense for two thirds of the season. If Kittle is healthy he will get at worst close to 1,000 yards and a healthy amount of receptions and TD's. The Niners defense regressing and Jimmy G playing with Kittle for a third season will at the very least compensate for any uptick in receiver targets.

They didn't let Sanders go, Sanders was a free agent and on the last year of his deal. It wasn't like Sanders had another year on his deal and they cut him. Sanders was a cap casualty not necessarily a we are so loaded at this position that we can let people go. The fact that they had to draft Aiuyuk high up shows you that they weren't really that sold on the two players that were coming off IR. Kittle's targets aren't going anywhere. I don't really think Jalen Hud a player coming off of a broken back and wasn't able to get on the field at all and Kendrick Bourne a player who has shown some flashes but hasn't caught on despite being healthy are going to take away any significant targets from Kittle. I think you are vastly overrating the 49ers receiving core which is mostly Debo Samuel, a 1st round pick in Aiuyuk and a bunch of unproven players. Kittle will be fine.

Who is taking away targets from Kittle? Emmanuel Sanders isn't there anymore and Goodwin was traded. The only major piece added in place of those two was their first round pick. I just don't see Kittle's targets declining. DeBo isn't going to soak that many more targets than what he got in 2019 and receivers often take time to come on so I don't see a rookie getting more targets than what Emmanuel Sanders got.

The TE market is a bit of an outlier unlike most positions which have had elite players test the market in the last 2-3 seasons, the elite players at the position have had contracts locked in before they were elite players (Ertz and Kelce signed deals after the 2015 season when they were up and coming players and not quite elite at the position) or they are still on rookie or lower end deals (Kittle and possibly Waller out of Vegas if he has another good season.) The last TE with two 1,000 yard seasons to negotiate a new contract was Jimmy Graham who did so in the 2015 off-season. So the market at TE is very deflated since there hasn't been an elite talent at the position to test the market. If Kittle puts in another good season he will be the first elite TE to test the market in a long time and it is going to massively alter the market at the position.

The numbers of "Resetting the market 70-80%" are completely irrelevant in the context of the tight end market which has not been tested. Travis Kelce and Zack Ertz the two other elite TE's in the game (and possibly Gronk depending on how good Gronk is when he gets back) signed their contracts in January of 2016 and both players had career high receiving yards of 875. No TE with two 1,000 yard seasons has hit the market since Jimmy Graham in the 2015 off-season. I would rather have an Ertz/Kelce/Kittle at 15-17 million than 2 Hooper or Henry type TE's for 20 million total. I think the difference between good and great at the position is significant enough to warrant that kind of money. If Kittle puts up another very good season I see no reason why he wouldn't command 7.5% of the cap like Gronk did in 2012 which depending on where the cap lands puts him at 15-17 million aav and if he could get someone to overpay and give him 8% of the cap that's 18 million possibly if the cap hits closer to the 2021 estimates.

Agents negotiate based on past contracts percentage of cap. If Kittle underperforms in 2020 of course that hurts him and he could get hit. My point is that if he stays healthy and produces another very good elite season. He will justify a contract at 7.5% of the cap similar to what Gronk got. No tight end coming off of a 1000 yard season in the previous two years before getting an extension has come around since 2014. If Kittle has another good season he should see 7.5% of the cap as should Kelce. Also you keep averaging his rookie year numbers in with the previous 2 season where his production was elite to down play his numbers but given that after 4 years the least relevant season to his future production is his rookie year that won't be a barrier. If Kittle hits the market with a third 1000 yard season and is healthy he will easily get a Gronk percentage of the cap (at about 7.5%.) His market will be set between 15-18 million aav easily. Is 20 million like Thomas too high yes, but the range Kittle will be looking at is 15 to 18 million which should be between 7.25 and 8% of the cap depending on where the salary cap is set at.