billsfan89

The Browns talent wise are a good team. But their coaching and Baker's mental ability is what gives me pause. They added a pair of tackles to their O-line which should help alleviate their issues there and Hooper adds another weapon. Defensively they are decent too. On paper with a fixed up O-line and a good TE added they should win 9-10 games. But their skill position group is a lot of personalities for a first year HC and young QB to handle. Couple that with expectations and you once again have a scenario where a little bit of losing can snowball easily. I think Cleveland can compete for a Wildcard spot but there is a lot riding on a first year coach yet again. I usually am in favor of hiring up and coming coordinators to coach a team but for the Browns they might have been better served with a more proven HC option short term. It just seems like a far too combustable situation for a rookie HC to be in.

The tag is expensive. You could win multiple playoff games with an above average but not top 10 QB provided he is on a rookie deal and you built a very good team around them. With a tag you are spending 30+ million a season on one position. So while the tag would alleviate the long term commitment it wouldn't hamper your team any less short term.

That would almost be a bad scenario too. If Josh ends up being above average but not a top 10 QB he will command a huge contract that would hamper a team's ability to win with him. It would put the Bill's in that weird position where they have to consider the value of a decent QB relative to a big contract.

Haush at this point in his career reminds me of Ryan Lindel back in the day (relatively speaking) a good kicker inside 45 yards but gets shaky once you get close to 50 yards or beyond. That's not the worst kicker to have as some teams have kickers who struggle with all ranges but it is a handicap to not be able to have a kicker with range. BUT Haush is at least a decent fall back option in case Bass just doesn't have it. I would take a kicker who is 90% from inside 50 and sub 50% above 50 instead of a kicker who could kick 55 but is wildly inconsistent. Haush isn't ideal but he is a decent fall back option in case the new kicker can't handle it.

I wonder what percentage of the NFL's revenue is tied to ticket sales? I would imagine that the NFL's 4 primary sources of revenue are TV, Live Event money (ticket sales and other in stadium deals), sponsorships, and merchandise. I would imagine that most of the revenue that comes in is the TV deal which shouldn't be impacted too much short term. The sponsorships are also fairly stable due to most being on multi-year contracts and while I think merchandise will take a hit I don't think it will be massive. But what percentage is related to live events?

I think they will have to consider cutting Fromm, Josh's tweets were from his high school days, this is supposedly from a year ago. I think if you are really about "The Process" then you have to be serious about character and this is a part of someones character.

The defense can't be that much better in 2020 (and there is no guarantee that the drafted player will be as good as Bucker who was an All-Pro) so there is only likely to be regression. Secondly we are talking about Kittle's targets going down from 2019 levels (a year when the team had 2 quality WR's, the same QB, an elite defense and rushing attack, not much more could deflate your targets) and for that to happen the defense and rushing attack would have to be at or near the top of the league again, the receiver drafted in round 1 would have to replace or exceed Sanders production and the unproven WR's who are both coming off of IR are going to have production levels that are high. Literally everything that could happen would have to happen in one direction for Kittle's targets to go down significantly. You aren't presenting that as a possible scenario but a likely one. Yes if every possible negative circumstance goes against a player their production might dip, but what is the likelihood of all those things going against him? Even if one factor falls the other way his targets shouldn't be highly impacted.

I think Kittle easily retains 90% of his targets at a minimum if he is healthy as a floor and I would say could increase his targets by as much as 15% if the Niners defense regresses and keep in mind he missed 2 games last year and still eclipsed 1,000 yards so I think even with a 10% drop in targets he will still if healthy get 1000 yards. As NewEra said Trent Taylor and Jalen Hurd aren’t going to be that much more of a target drain than their third and fourth receivers had last season. Could a breakout from either player hurt Kittle’s targets? I guess but you would have to also hope that in addition to one of those players breaking out you would also have to hope that Aiyuk also has a season as good as Sanders last season or better which for a rookie WR is a tall order. You would also have to hope that the Niners defense and rushing attack remains at the top of the league. As I said the defense lost one of its best players and has some older players at critical positions and they did have some struggles towards the last 7 games of the season. So yes if two unproven players coming off of IR have good seasons, a rookie WR has a better season than Emmanuel Sanders did last year, the 49ers rushing attack and defense remains among the best in the league than Kittle’s targets might go down significantly. That’s literally everything having to fall one way.

The 49ers were up against the cap, that’s why they didn’t resign Sanders. Of course they are going to say hey we like what we have and not we are kind of ***** due to the cap. If they were so confident in Taylor and Hurd they wouldn’t have drafted a receiver in round 1 esp in a deep receiver class. I don't buy that two players coming off of IR who weren't productive to begin with are suddenly taking away massive targets from Kittle. That's coach speak you aren't seeing through. As for the defense yes they did rebound in the playoffs but I am projecting regression at least modestly. I still think they will be a top 10 defense just not a top 3 defense. One simply due to the loss of Bucker and two due to other players either aging or not having top seasons again. Their defense had a lot of factors go right for them in 2019 and in 2020 I suspect some players will regress due to age or other factors and the loss of Bucker will hurt. If the defense regresses a little bit they will be passing more overall.

I don't know why you seem to think that Taylor and Hurd two players coming off of serious injuries and players who have 0 receptions in the previous season are such massive candidates to take away receptions from one of the game’s best tight ends? You’re putting a lot on faith for those two players to both recover from injury and have production that they have never even come close to before. I get thinking that the team’s first round pick could have an impact but will that impact be greater than what Sanders brought last season (extrapolated per game?) I am not so sure. I think you are projecting out the most optimistic scenario for all 3 of those receivers even despite the fact that one is a rookie and the other two have never been that productive and are coming off of serious injuries. As for the Niners defense they most definitely did fall off towards the final 5 games of the season. They gave up from week 11 on, 26, 8, 20, 46, 29, 31, and 21 points. With their worst performance being the 29 they gave up to Atlanta resulting in a loss that could have cost them home field advantage had they not beat the Seahawks in week 17 in a close game. Compare that to their other 9 games and you see a sharp decline from what they did in their first nine games. I think with the loss of Buckner and some natural regression in their older players they regress from a top defense in the league to a good defense, which should open up more opportunities for their passing game. In fact Kittle had about the same yards in his first 8 games as he did in the last 6 games. Which meant as the defense regressed his yards and receptions per game went up.

Haush found his accuracy inside 49 this past season which has value. But I agree Bass should be able to beat Haush out for the spot. Unless Haush keeps his accuracy and regains his leg or Bass completely ***** the bed I think Bass will be the kicker.

You keep saying "Add 3 more WR" who are these great WR's they are adding? I think you are massively overrating these WR's. It would be a coo for the Niners to get Sanders like production out of their first round pick in year one (For every Deebo there are many who don't make an immediate impact.) You are projecting every single WR on the Niners roster to have seasons way better than they have ever had on an optimist evaluation. From my perspective the Niners swapped Sanders with a 1st round WR and not much else was added. That's not exactly a huge influx of targets taken away from Kittle. I also think that the Niners having an elite defense and running out the clock late is what mostly deflated his stats from his insane 2018 stats not Jimmy G or any other factor. Whereas in 2018 the Niners were playing from behind so often. I am not so sure the Niners defense will be as strong as it was in the first 10-11 weeks of the 2019 season. I don't think it will be bad but I don't think it will be an all time great defense for two thirds of the season. If Kittle is healthy he will get at worst close to 1,000 yards and a healthy amount of receptions and TD's. The Niners defense regressing and Jimmy G playing with Kittle for a third season will at the very least compensate for any uptick in receiver targets.

They didn't let Sanders go, Sanders was a free agent and on the last year of his deal. It wasn't like Sanders had another year on his deal and they cut him. Sanders was a cap casualty not necessarily a we are so loaded at this position that we can let people go. The fact that they had to draft Aiuyuk high up shows you that they weren't really that sold on the two players that were coming off IR. Kittle's targets aren't going anywhere. I don't really think Jalen Hud a player coming off of a broken back and wasn't able to get on the field at all and Kendrick Bourne a player who has shown some flashes but hasn't caught on despite being healthy are going to take away any significant targets from Kittle. I think you are vastly overrating the 49ers receiving core which is mostly Debo Samuel, a 1st round pick in Aiuyuk and a bunch of unproven players. Kittle will be fine.

Who is taking away targets from Kittle? Emmanuel Sanders isn't there anymore and Goodwin was traded. The only major piece added in place of those two was their first round pick. I just don't see Kittle's targets declining. DeBo isn't going to soak that many more targets than what he got in 2019 and receivers often take time to come on so I don't see a rookie getting more targets than what Emmanuel Sanders got.

The TE market is a bit of an outlier unlike most positions which have had elite players test the market in the last 2-3 seasons, the elite players at the position have had contracts locked in before they were elite players (Ertz and Kelce signed deals after the 2015 season when they were up and coming players and not quite elite at the position) or they are still on rookie or lower end deals (Kittle and possibly Waller out of Vegas if he has another good season.) The last TE with two 1,000 yard seasons to negotiate a new contract was Jimmy Graham who did so in the 2015 off-season. So the market at TE is very deflated since there hasn't been an elite talent at the position to test the market. If Kittle puts in another good season he will be the first elite TE to test the market in a long time and it is going to massively alter the market at the position.

The numbers of "Resetting the market 70-80%" are completely irrelevant in the context of the tight end market which has not been tested. Travis Kelce and Zack Ertz the two other elite TE's in the game (and possibly Gronk depending on how good Gronk is when he gets back) signed their contracts in January of 2016 and both players had career high receiving yards of 875. No TE with two 1,000 yard seasons has hit the market since Jimmy Graham in the 2015 off-season. I would rather have an Ertz/Kelce/Kittle at 15-17 million than 2 Hooper or Henry type TE's for 20 million total. I think the difference between good and great at the position is significant enough to warrant that kind of money. If Kittle puts up another very good season I see no reason why he wouldn't command 7.5% of the cap like Gronk did in 2012 which depending on where the cap lands puts him at 15-17 million aav and if he could get someone to overpay and give him 8% of the cap that's 18 million possibly if the cap hits closer to the 2021 estimates.

Agents negotiate based on past contracts percentage of cap. If Kittle underperforms in 2020 of course that hurts him and he could get hit. My point is that if he stays healthy and produces another very good elite season. He will justify a contract at 7.5% of the cap similar to what Gronk got. No tight end coming off of a 1000 yard season in the previous two years before getting an extension has come around since 2014. If Kittle has another good season he should see 7.5% of the cap as should Kelce. Also you keep averaging his rookie year numbers in with the previous 2 season where his production was elite to down play his numbers but given that after 4 years the least relevant season to his future production is his rookie year that won't be a barrier. If Kittle hits the market with a third 1000 yard season and is healthy he will easily get a Gronk percentage of the cap (at about 7.5%.) His market will be set between 15-18 million aav easily. Is 20 million like Thomas too high yes, but the range Kittle will be looking at is 15 to 18 million which should be between 7.25 and 8% of the cap depending on where the salary cap is set at.

Miami has also made a lot of these big time splashes in free agency seemingly every 3-5 years and none of these big time off-seasons seem to result in anything more than a random wildcard birth here or there. I can't see this latest free agency spree resulting in long term success. Miami has about 55 million in space in 2021 (60 million if they cut Jordan Howard) so while they have some cap flexibility and have an extra draft capital I can't see them having another big spree in 2021 to fix the remaining holes on the roster. So overall I think the Dolphins hopes are going to have to stem from Tua being the real deal in 2021 and beyond as I don't see them having the longer term cap flexibility to add that much more to the roster via free agency.

I feel like you are being purposefully dense. Kelce after the 2015 season was not the caliber of TE he is now. He was only coming off of two 800+ yard seasons with 5 TD's each season. Very good numbers but not elite Gronk or Graham like numbers (the two top TE's of that time.) So you keep brining up Kelce like he was the player he is now when he signed that deal. Had Kelce singed that deal after 2016 or 2017 when he eclipsed 1000 yards and the conversation for best TE in the league was between him and Gronk he would have likely gotten 7.5% of the cap or close. Also I pointed out that the last TE to negotiate a deal while being an elite TE was Graham who signed a deal after the 2014 season. By the time Kittle signs a new deal it will be 2021 which will be 7 years without the market being tested. Kelce and Ertz didn't test the market because they weren't top end guys when they signed extensions. I agree that yes if the cap increase goes down due to fans in the stands (I can't see the raw cap number going down from the 2020 level as most of the NFL's revenue stems from TV rights certainly will at least stay flat which amounts to a huge decrease) then that number will fluctuate. But I don't see how in any rational universe if Kittle stays healthy and puts in a third top tier season how he doesn't get a contract around 7.5% of the cap. Which would put him at least well over 15 million if the cap stays the same or similar. You are caught up on the Kelce numbers like he isn't massively underpaid and had he not been locked into a long term deal he wouldn't be paid 30-40% more at minimum. Kelce's contract is completely irrelevant to Kittle's because Kelce is drastically underpaid and did not negotiate his deal as an elite TE.

Fitz is Fitz and I think that they have no interest in playing Tua year one. For one I think that they want to make sure he is healthy and I think they want to get him a year in the system before forcing him out there. But while I feel the Fins have improved their defense and have decent offensive pieces having a substandard QB is going to keep them from getting above the 7-8 win range.

Kittle lines up to block and receive out of the backfield. Because he can block like a good full back him being in the backfield doesn't tip him off as a decoy. It just adds to the versatility of him as a player. In January of 2016 Kelce was coming off of back to back 800 yard seasons. Two years later he would have been coming off of an increase in yards (back to back 1000 yard seasons) and TD's while being more established. He easily would have gotten a lot more. For one the cap increased in those years and two he would have gone from top 5-10 to top 2 production at the position. If Kelce got a similar deal to what Gronk got (7.5% as a percentage of cap) in 2012 adjusted for the 2018 salary cap he would be paid at an average of 13.25 million. If Kittle got 7.5% of the projected 2021 salary cap he would be paid 16.25 million. I think given the increased positional rarity he could command 8% of the cap (Which would put him above 17 million) given the right market. I don't think there has ever been a positional depression like there has been at TE. A top elite talent hasn't been in a position to negotiate a contract at the position since the Salary cap was over 30% lower in 2015 (Jimmy Graham.) The two elite talents at their position that are on their second contracts signed deals in the 2016 off-season before their production ballooned. Kittle would be the first elite TE to sign a contract in 7 years by the time his deal is up. That's going to cause a huge increase in his market. I can't think of another position in the league that has had such a wonky market where the top 3 players at the position on their second contracts are locked into deals signed just before their big outbreak. I think you are ignoring the circumstances of the top contracts at the position. The top TE's in the league have had locked in deals since 2016 when they weren't producing at elite levels. Gronk set the standard at 7.5% of cap for a TE and I think Kittle if he has another really good season would easily command that which would put him at 16+ million aav and he could if he gets a team to give him a bit more get to the 17-18 million range.

I think a big piece missing in this conversation is that there hasn't been a big TE to hit the market in many years. Gronk got a massive 6 year contract extension in 2012 season and was never at a point to get a second contract of significant length. Jimmy Graham signed his big deal back in 2014. Travis Kelce signed a 5 year extension after the 2015 season when he had logged back to back 800 yard seasons, Zach Ertz signed a similar contract in January 2016 when his career high in yards was 800. Both have blossomed into elite TE’s. There just hasn’t been an elite TE to hit the market in a long time. Hooper and Henry are good top 10 TE’s but not special dynamic players at the position and they still got over 10 million. I think Kittle if he can cement his status with one more very good season resets a very warped market. If a Jimmy Graham or Gronk or Kelce type TE hit the market in the past 2-3 seasons we would be easily talking Kittle having to go above a 14-15 million dollar top contract instead of 10 million. The Niners threw the ball 19 times in the divisional round and 8 times in the NFC title game. I think that might have deflated Kittle's stats although in the SB when the Niners threw 31 times he only had 4 receptions for 36 yards. Both guys are elite TE's. One being underpaid doesn't deflate the others value nor would one being a smidge better.

In 2019 Kittle broke 1000 yards on an offense that was nursing leads late and running heavy (and Jimmy G is not an elite QB at this point.) If he has another similar season in 2020 he will along with his elite blocking skills and versatility to line up in the backfield or anywhere on the field have established 3 seasons worth of elite TE play before hitting the market at age 27. I could easily see another team ponying up around 18 million aav to get an elite dynamic piece that is rare. I would disagree that Samuel and their receivers are going to take away targets in any significant manner. Sanders is no longer there and while they did draft a WR in round 1 I think it will take at least a year or two for Alyuk to take away significant targets. I also think that if anything having Samuel and other better receiving options will only help Kittle pop bigger numbers as the attention is less on him. Travis Kelce signed his contract that pays him about 9-10 million a season before the 2016 season. When he signed that deal he was coming off of back to back 800+ yard seasons with 5 TD’s in each season. Even before Mahomes in 2018 he had out performed that deal and if he hit the open market today would see a greater than 50% raise from his current salary. Ask yourself this question if 2 years ago Kelce hit the open market what would he have commanded? I would say at least 15 million. Kelce’s deal being deflated doesn’t diminish market value. I think Kittle at this point is worth about 15 million aav easily. If he has another good season and is healthy he should command closer to 20 than 15 ( I would say 18). There aren’t many TE’s that can anchor a passing attack as a number one option and block at an elite level on the market. Hooper got 10+ million and he isn’t a very good blocker and is far from a TE able to anchor a passing attack.

It's not an apples to apples choice though, my only point in brining up the Thomas contract is that the market is set at 20 million aav for a top pass catcher. The 49ers don't have the choice between Thomas and Kittle they have the choice to either let Kittle walk or pay him against the market. Do you think that if Kittle has another 1000 yard season and is healthy that some team wouldn't pony up at least 17-18 million aav for him? Elite TE's are the hardest to find and one hitting the market in his prime is going to command a huge deal.

Michael Thomas's deal was 5 years 100 million exactly 20 million on the dot. I think Kittle could with another very good season could easily command 18 million aav. TE's that can block at an elite, be versatile in other components of the game, and haul in 1000 plus yards a season in the receiving game are rare and hard to find. Kittle is as valuable to the 49ers offense as Thomas is to the Saints offense.