billsfan89

The Jets problem is their defense is mediocre to average and Darnold has no one to throw to. But they did have a nice draft further solidifying their O-line and getting a young receiver in there. But overall they are in my opinion a year away from seriously competing I think they win 8-9 games this season competitive for the last wildcard spot but not a serious threat in the division just yet. Now if they can continue that prudent approach into 2021 then I think they become a much more serious threat. But I wouldn't sleep on the Jets that's 2 games that won't be easy. The Dolphins I am not sold on being much more than a 7-8 win team. I don't think they play Tua and I think their big free agency splurge is bound to not give them the results they hoped. Long term their hopes rest on Tua and how he develops.

Hodges is on the bubble, not sure if he can beat out Mackenzie, Foster and Duke. Dane Jackson is likely to be on the PS. Moss, AJ, Davis, Fromm and Bass are likely to all make the roster.

I put that more on coaching than on Polian. Polian gave them the talent.

Indy won a Super Bowl, went to another and was constantly a contender when he was there. I say that run was just as good.

I think Gase saw how broken that locker room was starting to get and wants a stabilizing force in there. The Jets have been very prudent this off-season (compared to their spending spree in 2019) making smart acquisitions and trying to build a team as opposed to just trying to collect talent. Gore isn't going to be much more than a short yardage back on the field. But in the locker room he could be a great help to help the team's locker room culture.

I think Spain is an above average player in addition to Dawkins and Mitch. Spain gave up no sacks last year and was a good player in the rush attack. I think he is highly underrated after watching some more film on him. I think that as tempting as it is to think that the O-line lacking "Elite" players makes it a less than stellar unit that thinking ignores the realties of O-line play that is much more determined by playing as a unit and avoiding having a weak link. The Cowboys line is one way to build a line of just stacking as many elite players as possible. However I think the other (more easy to sustain) offensive line to model is the Giants O-line from 2005 to 2012 when they were a unit that featured 2-3 "Good players and 2-3 average to above average players BUT they played together for years on end in the same system and were one of the top 5 units in the NFL despite not having more than 1-2 Pro-Bowl caliber players at a time (Chris Snee, Sean O'Hara and David Diehl being the only O-line players to make a Pro-Bowl during that time and Diehl only made 1.) That O-line was more than the sum of its parts and allowed the team to spend bigger on other areas of the team being less reliant on stacking elite players. I think that is the model that McBeane is going for. Keeping a group of players who aren't elite on paper but are good and have a ton of chemistry and depth.

The D-line carries 8 typically and currently has 9 players who were either significantly high draft picks or on fairly decent sized contracts. Unless they plan to carry Addison as an LB I think you might be right in that they will look to trade some of that surplus.

Beane's attention to depth on the team is highly underrated the past 2 off-seasons. The Bills O-line rolls 9 deep with starting caliber players. The Bills D-line rolls 9 deep with starting caliber players. I have never seen the Bills ever have that level of depth on their lines before 2019. It isn't just the lines that are deep either. The running back position has 2 good backs and a decent veteran third RB in Yeldon. The WR core has 3 front line starters but also features a gadget WR5 in Mackenzie, added a 4th and 6th round pick to the mix, and has Duke and Foster competing for spots. I like that Beane has decided not to be a slave to comp picks and if he likes a player he will sign them in order to improve the roster instead of holding off on good players for a mid-round pick in next years draft. Beane has both managed to put this team in a position for short term success and sustained success at the same time.

Any O-line losing 2 starters is going to hurt any team's Super Bowl aspirations significantly. The Bills have the depth to field a mid-level or slightly below average O-line if they sustain 2-3 injuries in my opinion which is all you can ask for depth wise. The starting unit IF Ford can maintain the higher level of play he ended last season on features no bad players and a unit that will have better chemistry. I see 3 firmly above average players (Dawkins, Mitch, and Spain) and 2 players who I think will be average at worst and good at best (Feliciano and Ford.) Add in the chemistry improvement and I see a top 10 unit.

I think the O-line until will be a top 10 unit in the league next season. Continuity and chemistry are big factors in offensive line play. Prior to 2019 none of the Bills O-line players had played together let alone played for the same team in the same system. Despite that and starting a rookie at RT the Bills O-line was still decent in 2019. I think with a full year having played together (and all 5 players are under 30) and some improvement/development from Ford (he did play better late last season) the O-line should be a lot better. Dawkins is a top half of the league LT, Spain an above average guard, Mitch is top 5 at his position, Feliciano is an average to above average guard, and I expect Ford to play at least solid in 2020 with a year in the pros under his belt. The unit also has 3-4 good depth players behind that starting unit. I think that while the O-line might not be elite it certainly will be a good unit. Long term I think they will have to evaluate the right side in 2020 to see if Ford and Feliciano will be the long term answers but the unit should be good enough to allow Josh to handle his business. The Bills have a quality swing tackle in Ty, a starting caliber guard who can pinch into center in Long, Bates can play all 5 O-line positions and showed good play when called upon, and they added D.Williams a former All pro tackle reclamation project. I don't know how much deeper an O-line can get?

The O-line has 3-4 starting caliber players on the bench. If Dawkins goes out they have a respectable LT option in Ty. If Morse goes out they can shift Feliciano to Center and bring in Spencer Long to play guard. They also have D.Williams and a versatile player in Bates off the bench. Very few teams have more than 1 or 2 decent backup O-linemen the Bills have 3-4.

I don't think he is getting it. He fell short of 653 last season and he got 163 rushing attempts in a more legit time share for half of the season. The Jets have Lev Bell who is still a 3 down RB and will get most of the snaps. I guess it is possible but I think his snaps go down to less than 130 and if that's the case I don't see him surpassing last years rushing yards total with 30+ less carries to do so.

Gore at this point is nothing more than a locker room guy he is the NFL equivalent of the 19 year NBA vet who gets paid to sit on the bench and practice with the younger guys. I actually don't hate the move for the Jets, they need to clean up their culture a bit and Gore is the kind of vet that certainly helps and I think he is someone you would want around a young QB like Darnold. On the field I think the Bills got the last few drops of him out early last year (in particular the Titans game in which he basically closed the game out.) The last two thirds of the season Gore was done.

Star would get a one year deal from some team that runs a similar scheme. Just because he has been overpaid the past 2 seasons doesn't mean he doesn't have value and the fact that he is by all accounts not an issue in the locker room makes him easier to sign. Dareus comes with a toxic reputation one that coaches don't want to bring into the locker room.

Zack Moss was a really solid pick. I think he will be a quality 4.3 to 4.5 ypc between the tackles runner. I think by the end of their first season together Moss and Singletary will be viewed as one of the best young RB duos in the league.

That's my thought too, the game is the game, yes the fans add energy to it but in the end the game is played on the field and having limited or no fans in the stands doesn't change the game all that much for me. As long as it is on TV and being played the way it normally is I am good.

The offense also played the Steelers away, New England away and Baltimore at home during that stretch 3 of the most brutal defenses in the league and 2 of them away to boot. I think given that context it makes it a little more clear why the point totals got lower against those teams. Yes in the playoff game the offense ***** the bed. All they needed was to get the defense a three possession lead and they couldn't put the hammer down up 16. But the offense overall on the back half of the season was in my opinion better and more consistent against superior competition. I think it is cherry picking the most brutal 3 game stretch of the schedule and a game with the backups to say that the offense sputtered to close the regular season. If you take into account the totality of the back half of the regular season I think you see a more consistent less turnover prone offense.

It was one of the worst situations for MD to be in. Mario was one of the worst influences, the organization early on was cheap and not able to develop him mentally, and then when Rex and new ownership took over he had a big contract, bad influences on and off the team, and an inflated head. It was just destined to be a train wreck long term despite his amazing ability.

Clowney is a lot better than Murphy and on a one year deal keeps his motivation. I wouldn't sign Clowney for a 16 million dollar deal but I would offer him a deal in the range of 12-13 million which is only 4-5 million more than you would be paying Murphy. I think for a 4-5 million dollar hit it would be worth it to try and upgrade the DE spot with a player who can be very very disruptive.

I don't see any regression in this defense. The D-line is 9 deep with quality players, Milano and Edumonds are one of the best LB pairs in the league and they are young. Klein is a solid third LB. Hyde and Poyer don't have major injuries and are 30 and 29 respectively I think they should be good for at least 1-2 more seasons. White is in his prime as an All-Pro Corner, T. Johnson is a good slot corner and they have Levi Wallace and other good options opposite White none of whom should see significant regression. I think they should remain a top 5 defense, barring unreasonable levels of injuries. I think the offense will play better by simply having Diggs and continuity (Last year they entered in with 9 new starters on offense this year only 1.) The defense doesn't need to be leaned on too heavily. I also think with the ST additions they made the ST unit could moderately improve a solid unit. This team is also well coached and good at developing players, which might mean the emergence of players who are lesser known esp on the defensive side of the ball. To me it is all on Josh, can he put together a modestly better season? If so this team will win 12 games and be in contention for a bye.

It is hard to say that AJ Green or Julio Jones wouldn't have been better picks at #3 but at the time Dareus was considered as sure fire high ceiling low floor type prospect as you could get at a position where the Bills needed a lot of help at. Almost Everyone wanted the Bills to take him or Von Miller whomever was there at pick 3 and sign him to an extension. I am not sure if Mario being on the team and Rex showing up right when he got the extension made things worse? It was just such a drastic fall off form 2015-2017 from 2013-2014. In 2014 Dareus followed a Pro-Bowl caliber 2013 season by being one of the top 2-3 DT's in the league behind Suh and McCoy. He was 25 why wouldn't you want to keep that guy?

That's the proper criticism of the trade was why not do it in the 2018 off-season? The rush defense collapsed the rest of the season. As much as Dareus fell off as a interior disruptor he was still an elite level rush defender and it could have cost the team the 2017 playoffs by trading him a bit too early. BUT I understand that if someone is becoming such a huge problem in the locker room that it is looking like it will be toxic then maybe it was just too much of a risk to keep him around.

There are some positions that could be upgraded but we are talking about marginal upgrades to the edges of the roster. Punter, veteran TE (Would love someone better and more reliable than Kroft) and depth in the secondary and at linebacker are all positions the could be upgraded but none of those positions are likely to be the difference. This season comes down to Josh. If he says the same this is a 10-11 win team tough but lucky to win a playoff game. If he regresses this is a 8-9 win bubble team. If he takes a modest step up to being a top 12-10 QB I think this is a 12+ win team with a legit shot to win 2 playoff games or more. Josh has the receiving core, offensive line and RB combo to put together a good offense. The Special teams unit (which was decent last year) got upgraded and the defense should return to being a top 5 unit. With reasonable health this team is going as far as Josh is taking them. I think the defensive line has enough to produce a consistent pass rush, yes it would be nice to swap Murphy for Clowney on a one year deal but I think they are counting on interior pass rush to produce a lot of pressure and Addision and Hughes to be good pass rushers off the edge. I think TE is a concern because if Kroft is hurt and Knox is a year away from being consistent this team becomes much more reliant on 3-4 players in the receiving game which could stifle the offense just enough against elite defenses. Hopefully Kroft proves everyone wrong and Knox is more consistent but I get that being a concern on the roster.

Dak would have to improve his level of play to justify his contract if it was 35 million aav. And that's a big risk to pay on speculation. I think Dak is a very poor mans version of Russell Wilson his first 3-4 years in the league. He manages the game, uses his legs to get some cheap yardage and makes good plays on third down. However Dak unlike Wilson isn't as good of a passer even on the run. Wilson is a good passer in the pocket and an elite passer on the run. Dak is a mediocre passer from the pocket and very good on the run. Can Dak elevate his play? Certainly, but why would you want to pay 35 million with a 90+ million dollar guarantee to hope someone can get better to justify their contract? Dak also has played with a very good O-line, one of the best RB's in the league and a decent complement of receivers that is now stacked and a defense that has been good at times. Paying Dak 35 million means the defense has to get worse or his complementary pieces have to get worse. That's not a winning recipe. Would another team pay Dak 35 million? I don't know, there are some QB thirsty teams out there that would. Cousins a few years ago got offered 30 million and took 27 million fully guaranteed for 3 years.

The offense did get better as the season went on, by the middle of the season Josh was cutting down on the turnovers and playing more within himself and the rushing attack (besides Gore) got better. Yes the Houston game was a big let down but one game doesn't define the offenses entire performance throughout the latter portion of the season. I feel that Josh and the offense might have been playing timidly with the lead and then trying to make up too much when they were down. The team scored an average of 19.75 points in its first 8 games and then in its last 7 (excluding the Jets game because they didn't play the starters) it scored an average of 21.4 points. I think even by the eye test the offense was just more fluid and cohesive than it was in the first 8 games despite playing as hard if not a harder defensive schedule.