billsfan89

I think the Bills can land a top 3 guard for around 9.5 million aav which I would be happy with. If the Bills do all the restructuring they can they should have some good space to work with not crazy amounts but if they get Hines to take a modest pay cut and restructure what they can and do some cap magic they could have between 40-50 million in cap space depending on if they want to extend Oliver, cut Tim Settle and work out some other deals and restructures. I can't see the Bills getting multiple big pieces like some people want to sign a top 3 guard and a top-end RT. That's simply not doable. But one big ticket item to plug a big hole is possible while still having enough to spread around some mid-level and lower mid-level contracts to other ends of the roster.

The 2017 and 2018 Bills draft classes were amazing but the 2019-2022 draft classes thus far have been OK. The Bills in 2017-2018 hit a lot of "home runs" and "triples". I would say that Josh Allen, Tre White, and Matt Milano were home-run picks while Dion Dawkins, T.Johnson, and Edmonds were triples so to speak. Whereas from 2019 to 2022 the team has hit a lot of single and double. The Bills have found productive players who can start at an effective level or play a role such as Knox, Singletary, Ed Oliver, Groot, Elam, Davis, AJ and Dane Jackson but they have not had any truly elite players or even "very good" players come out of those drafts outside of Bass who is a ST player. I still hold out hope for Groot, Elam, Cook and others to take that next step but the 2019 draft class and 2020 draft classes don't look like they will be producing that type of player. The two best players in those drafts are Knox and Ed Oliver, both are solid starting caliber players but neither is elite or close to being a "Pro Bowl" caliber player. If the Bills hope to win a Super Bowl they need more development from the 2021 and 2022 classes and a good impact from the 2023 class.

The drafting under McBeane has been better which is a huge reason why they have been winning in recent years. From 2017-2018 the team found All-Pro talents in Josh Allen, Matt Milano, and Tre White, they also found Pro-Bowl caliber talents in Dion Dawkins and Edumonds and some underrated players like T.Johnson. 2019-2022 has not been as strong but they have consistently hit on productive players. Elam, Cook, and Groot have a lot of potential and already are starting caliber players, Knox is a top 10 player at his position, Bass is a stud kicker, and the level of production from other players like Davis, Singletary, Ed Oliver, Dane Jackson, and AJ has been positive. And there is still hope for late bloomers in Boogie, Spencer Brown, Shakir, and others. I also disagree that the Bills have never found elite talent in later rounds. Matt Milano was a 5th-round pick but going back even father Jason Peters is a Hall of Famer that was undrafted by the Bills and was a stud his few years here before being traded for a 1st and 4th. Kyle Williams was a 5th-round pick and an All-Pro/Pro-Bowl talent for a stretch of time. On top of that, Pat Williams was an undrafted player and was a stud. I think you are not really giving credit to a player like Jason Peters who was one of the best-undrafted players of all time or other very good to great late-round and undrafted players the Bills have had come through. Outside of Kurt Warner, Brady, and a few others, I can't really think of too many transcendent players that went undrafted or were drafted very late.

I would rather take an O-line player with a high second-round grade than an RB with a firm first-round grade. Cook is going to be a very good RB I don't think Robinson presents enough of an upgrade to warrant spending pick 27 on him esp if the O-line is made worse for it. I also disagree that OG, RT, MLB and S have less value than a RB. Given how RB's are paid compared to those other positions I would say the value of those positions is equal or higher. I would also rather fill a defensive need than go with Robinson at RB. Robinson while a really good prospect is not that generational type of RB prospect or else he likely wouldn't be there at pick 27. If Robinson were a CMC, Zeke, Barkley or Adrian Peterson generational-type top 10 pick RB I would say if he were there at pick 27 you could argue it. But Robinson is just not that type of prospect in my opinion.

It's why more and more players are retiring earlier. through the 2000's it was pretty common to see a player play 10-12+ years in the league at most positions. Now players seemingly retire after about 8 or so years.

No more running backs taken up high, this team just spent a 2nd round pick on a RB in the previous draft and that RB had a nice end to his rookie season. No need to draft one at 27 when other pressing needs will need to be addressed.

A third alone wouldn’t likely get it done which is why I think you would have to include a 2024 pick. Ideally a 4th that could escalate to a 3rd. I would consider pick 59 for Jeudy and pick 194.

NFL free agency is hard to predict. I would have predicted a guard like Alex Cappa who was a starting guard for 3 seasons including being on a Super Bowl-winning team while grading out very highly at age 27 would have gotten a 10+ million dollar contract. He signed for 8.75 million aav. Not cheap but not some massive contract either.

A lot of fans myself included loved his acquisition in 2017. He was the only real "big name" signing that off-season for the Bills who seemingly only signed him, a kicker in Haush, and some no named safety named Poyer. Obviously, we didn't know what they had in Poyer and the overall strategy of staying mostly flexible in the coming seasons until a QB was in place. But Hyde was the acquisition that all of the fans loved, hoping he has one more good season in him.

The Bills have had late-round or undrafted gems. In the drought, the late-round picks and undrafted players were actually not the issues. Jason Peters was undrafted and flipped for a 1st and a 4th. Peerless Price while a 2nd round pick was flipped for a 1st at the height of his value. Jabari Greer and Fred Jackson were undrafted players with a good degree of success. Stevie Johnson, D'Norris Searcy, Nigel Bradham, Terrance McGee and Kyle Williams were mid to late-round picks who panned out well. The issue with the Bills drafting particularly during the drought was struggling to draft well in the early rounds and free agency. The Bills had so many busts in rounds 1-3 from 2002-2016 and the players they hit on that were productive were rarely dynamic players. There were a lot of Donte Whitner type successes where they were solid players but nothing special.

The Bills have by far the best QB situation and a solid supporting roster. I am not too worried about the AFC East just yet. The Jets trading for an average safety is not worrying me. If there is one thing I trust McBeane on it is the secondary. If McBeane felt like Chuck Clark wasn't a fit for replacing Poyer then it likely wasn't a good fit. Poyer in 2017 was a no-name player. Prior to coming to Buffalo Poyer started 10 games for the Browns over 2 seasons and wasn't graded out very high in the games he did start. Many fans were puzzled why in 2017 he got a 4-year deal with 7 million guaranteed. But he far exceeded the contract and even got an extension. Levi Wallace was an undrafted free agent who played fairly well in the system, Dane Jackson was a 6th-round pick and has been a capable starting corner, Dean Marlowe and Hamlin have played decently at times. If there is one aspect of the team I do think the Bills can find players at it is the secondary.

At RB I would like to have the trio that ended last season back. But only if Hines takes a modest paycut and Singletary can be had at a reasonable 3.5-4 million rate. If neither happens go with a vet RB to replace Singletary at that cost and then draft a late-round back to replace Hines as a returner and depth. At backup QB I would like to go after a Mitch Trubisky reclamation project. Sam Darnold is a great candidate for this or just bring back Keenum if he is cheap. At WR I would trade pick 91 and a pick in 2024 for Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy has two years left on his rookie deal and is coming off of a pretty good season considering Denver's terrible offensive situation last year. Having Josh to throw to him and Diggs to take away coverage attention would make Jeudy a great slot WR. I would then draft a WR in round 4 as depth and development. I like Shakir's chances to make an impact but this team needs depth and adding Jeudy and getting a WR in round 4 would assure Josh has all the weapons he needs and help if Davis is gone after 2023 and Jeudy after 2024. At TE I love Knox and Morris is a capable backup, not much needed there. O-line is where the cap dollars need to go. I would sign one of the top guards in free agency in Dalton Risner or Ben Powers. Although I would love a top-flight RT like Mike McGlinchey too I don't know if that is realistic. After signing Risner or Powers I would then like to see some more depth added to the O-line a swing tackle or a vet guard would be a nice piece to add. In round 1 I would draft a tackle to compete with Brown and in round 2 I would draft a center to take over for Mitch after a season. No more half-measures on the O-line. Defensively I am not investing too much but I would resign J. Philips and Shaq to one-year deals if their rates are reasonable. Edumonds and Poyer are gone which I am fine with (although I would have liked to resign Edumonds but you have to live with it). Resign AJ Klein and Dane Jackson as well. I would also invest small cap dollars to replace Poyer and Edumonds but only with lower mid-tier players in the 4-7 million dollar aav range. Draft picks Round 1- O-line Round 2- O-line Round 3- Traded for Jerry Jeudy Round 4- WR Round 5- D-line Round 6- BPA

Unless the market for Edumonds is not there for some reason and the Bills can hop in on a more reasonable deal yeah he is gone. Good for him to get his money. Hopefully the Bills realize that they should be investing more in the offense.

I loved Ed coming out of the draft and he has been a solid player. But he hasn't been dynamic which is what you want from a player drafted in the top 10. If Ed is demanding an extension and his demands are unreasonable to his level of production I would look into trading him. If you can get a 3rd round pick in 2023 and a 5th in 2024 I would strongly consider taking it. If Ed is willing to play out his 5th-year option and hit the market I keep him and get a comp pick. If he wants an extension that's reasonable I sign him.

Hasn't been a truly elite player since 2018 and last had a highly productive season in 2020. For the past two years, he has been a solid player but not dynamic. At age 33 with 9 years in the league, he wouldn't be the best option. Not a tragic idea as he may have one more solid year in him but I would rather look elsewhere unless Thielen comes fairly cheap and is willing to be a complementary WR 4/5. But I don't see that happening. If the Bills are looking at WR I would rather look to the draft or trade for a younger WR like Jerry Jeudy.

Unless the Bills find two O-line starters a good slot WR and some help on defense if both Edumonds and Poyer are gone (effectively filling all or most major needs in free agency which will not happen) I think Robinson at pick 27 would be a very foolish move. I would rather fill a more pressing need or even if the needs on the roster are less glaring after free agency I would still rather go after a more impactful position like a pass rusher or another more "preimum" position. The Bills if they can have Hines agree to a pay cut and resign Singletary or another decent vet RB to complement Cook and add depth the Bills will have a very deep RB core. The Bills just spent a 2nd round pick on a RB who had a really solid rookie year. Why would the Bills need to spend another top flight pick at a position that isn't the most valuable or hard to find in the NFL?

I like it, 2022 was effectively a red-shirt year for Ike coming off a very serious injury. Not a bad "kick the tires" season to see if he can be a depth option, at worst it is camp competition.

A solid safety but not a dynamic player either. Likely wants an extension that the Jets can offer.

Would have liked to have kept Edumonds but I would rather invest more in the offense.

2021 and 2022 were bummer endings but football in the playoffs is often a crapshoot. So its hard to completely destroy a pair of division titles and a pair of playoff victories because the team didn't win a Super Bowl. Combing that with 2019 and 2020 being very successful building seasons I would say that McD has met expectations overall.

The defense is good very good but the scheme needs to take on a different dimension in the playoffs. This zone scheme works so well against mid level or lower QB’s but against elite QB’s in the playoffs they need some other way to play.

A needed change hopefully this isn’t related to health.

I would rather trade a 2nd or 3rd rounder for Jerry Jeudy who has 2 years left on his deal. A premium pick for a one year rental is not the best idea at least give me someone who can be around for 2 seasons.

The Bills drafts from 2019 to 2022 have not been the best drafts. They haven't been tragic but the problem is that the Bills haven't hit on a "home run" pick in the draft. It's been a lot of single and doubles so to speak. 2019 Oliver, Knox and Singletary Oliver has been an above average DT and Knox and above average TE, while Singletary has been an average RB. 2020 AJ, Gabe Davis, Bass and Dane Jackson AJ had a rough first two seasons but came up better this season. Gabe has been up and down as a WR. Bass probably the best hit but at a niche ST position and Dane Jackson a solid corner. 2021 Groot, Boogie, Spencer Brown and Hamlin Groot has been decent and has some "home run potential" but thus far he has only been solid, Boogie and Spencer Brown have been very up and down and Hamlin was playing decent before his situation but is more likely a high end backup. 2022 Elam, Cook, Shakir, Benford and Bernard Benford and Elam were up and down but both look like they can play in the league, Cook looks to be a good RB with how he ended the season, Shakir flashed some but will have to develop some more and Bernard looked lost hopefully he plays better in year two. Contrast that with 2017 to 2018 which produced Josh Allen, Milano, Tre White, Dawkins, T.Johnson and Edumonds. Allen, Milano and White are All-Pro caliber players while Johnson, Dawkins and Edumonds are "Pro Bowl" caliber players in just two drafts. The Bills need some of the 2020-2022 players to develop into higher impact players and the 2023 draft class to have at least one really big hit in it.

Lamar has to be somewhat realistic that no team is going to want to guarantee 5+ years to a QB that spent the ending of the last two years hurt and has a style of play that is dependent on running. This is not an easy situation for the Ravens to be in.