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Round 1 (#26) Selection: DT John McCargo


udonkey

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McCargo was regularly double and triple-teamed.  He made Mario Williams a better player.  Did we need a DT?  Of course we did.  So what's the beef?  It's that Mel Kiper isn't blessing our moves, that's all.

 

PTR

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I'm at work and can't see/hear Kiper and glad for it. I love the pick and think this kid will absolutely reek havoc in the middle with Tripplett.

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I think we could have gotten both of these dudes later.

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I agree we could have gotten McCargoPants with our 2nd rounder.

But I think Whitner would have been off the board had Marv pulled the trigger on a trade with Philly or Denver

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Solid pick in my book.  We need a solid DT and he is a solid DT.  So we gave up a 3rd to ensure we got him, not a big deal.

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there we go

 

if we want a player.... get him, what the hell is the big deal

 

we also dont need to "stockpile picks" anymore since we signed a lot of free agents

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You go to work and build things, sell things, etc.  These guys go to work and evaluate talent and put together football teams.

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One of the nice things about the NFL is that the cream rises to the top. Teams that are well coached and do a good job evaluating personnel win football games. The Bills are one of the 5 worst teams of this decade, they obviously haven't been the cream, they deserve to be criticized, if you don't see that, it's your problem.

 

When Marv was hired, his lack of experience was cited as a potential concern. Remember, Marv was not with the Bills when they drafted Kelly, Smith and Reed 3/4 of the superstar engine that powered the Bills to 9 playoff appearances in 10 years. The personnel moves he has made seem to reflect opinions contrary to those of the rest of the league. The players he has signed in free agency and the contracts he has doled out for them have been puzzling, even though the media has all but forgotten about the sorry, boring team from Buffalo. It's logical to draw the conclusion that Marv is making bad decisions.

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The personnel moves he has made seem to reflect opinions contrary to those of the rest of the league. 

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That is something we do not know.

 

The only people who are laughing at the picks are media heads who are guessing as to where players are slotted.

 

The actual teams who are selecting the players don't advertise their real intentions.

 

Both of these players fit the system and will out perform where the "experts' projected them to be drafted.

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One interesting thing about both picks to me: their write-ups on NFL.com in the draft profiles section are very good. And if you read through those profiles in general, they tend to be MUCH more conservative (even negative) than the vast majority of the draft mags. That's why I like them. They seem realistic and don't claim everyone is going to be a pro-bowler.

 

They liked both Whitner and McCargo a lot, however, and said that they were likely to be drafted much lower than they should be for various reasons (e.g., size). I guess the Bills saw things the way they did and moved accordingly.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2006/whitner_donte

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2006/mccargo_john

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Let me get something straight here...so the Bills dealt their 2nd AND a 3rd to move up for this guy???

 

 

Did you think that either one of those alone would have been enough to get a first round pick? Usually you need to give up more than one lesser pick to get greater pick. Of course, if you can get a team to trade you a second for a first, than by all means do it!

 

Also, for all you people making the statement that we could have had either of these guys later than what we got them are pissing in the wind. How could you possibly know that? Do you not think that people don't have much better inside info as to what other teams are doing than you? Just because numnuts Kuyper for ESPN thinks a guy has gone early is frankly irrelevant. He is not a coach, he is not in the loop as to what is going down in various war rooms. He has made a living convincing the public that he is an expert but he is nothing more than a media guy.

 

Lot's of teams have been successful drafting guys that the talking heads thought at the time were reaches. Why should it be presumed that if Marv, et al. ain't drafting the guys the media experts have projected that they are making a mistake?

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That is something we do not know.

 

The only people who are laughing at the picks are media heads who are guessing as to where players are slotted.

 

The actual teams who are selecting the players don't advertise their real intentions.

 

Both of these players fit the system and will out perform where the "experts' projected them to be drafted.

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These guys have a pretty good idea of how the league values most of these players. They speak with GMs, coaches and scouts daily. It's how they're able to give a pretty accurate value to each player. They won't be able to pick exactly where the players go but they're good at projecting the general area they'll be selected in.

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These guys have a pretty good idea of how the league values most of these players.  They speak with GMs, coaches and scouts daily.  It's how they're able to give a pretty accurate value to each player.  They won't be able to pick exactly where the players go but they're good at projecting the general area they'll be selected in.

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yeah they hit the nail on the head with Tom Brady, Huh?

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In terms of when he was selected as opposed to when he was predicted to be selected?  They probably did.  That's the only issue here.

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well if they think he fits into their scheme, why not get the guy they think will help. i think too much is put on predictions, new england proved you don't have to have household names to win super bowls.

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Qualified approval...he felt 8 was to high.  But Whittner was gone at 9 if the Bills didn't take him.

 

PTR

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Reminds me how the Bills "stole" Ryan Denney one pick before Pittsburgh. How did that work out?

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Reminds me how the Bills "stole" Ryan Denney one pick before Pittsburgh. How did that work out?

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Ryan Denney is still with the Bills. The players Pittsburgh had to settle for is no longer a Steeler.

 

Yeah, that was the closest thing to something positive I could come up with on taking Denney instead of Randel'El

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yeah they hit the nail on the head with Tom Brady, Huh?

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You obviously don't understand the issue here. It has nothing whatsoever to do with how good a player ends up being.

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well if they think he fits into their scheme, why not get the guy they think will help.  i think too much is put on predictions, new england proved you don't have to have household names to win super bowls.

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It's not a question of who the Bills picked but rather what they spent. The folks complaining about the McCargo pick aren't stating that he's a bad player or a bad fit, but that maybe the Bills didn't need to trade the 3rd-round pick to move up to take him.

 

If New England had spent a No. 1 pick on Brady, knowing then what we knew THEN, they would have overpaid because Brady would have been available in later rounds.

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It's not a question of who the Bills picked but rather what they spent.  The folks complaining about the McCargo pick aren't stating that he's a bad player or a bad fit, but that maybe the Bills didn't need to trade the 3rd-round pick to move up to take him.

 

If New England had spent a No. 1 pick on Brady, knowing then what we knew THEN, they would have overpaid because Brady would have been available in later rounds.

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Exactly. If the Bills have McCargo as the 20th best player in the draft and the rest of the league has him at roughly the 50th it's a mistake to take him in the first round, period. Even if McCargo ends up being the 20th best player in the draft. A team has to understand a player's value and that value is determined by how the entire league rates a player.

 

The thing is I don't think the Bills have misunderstood the player values (it's not a tough concept after all). I think they've made the mistake of having very specific players they want and they're throwing value out the window to get them because they don't feel comfortable with the other players that they have rated similarly. A team absolutely cannot go into the draft saying, "We HAVE to have THIS player!"

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It's not a question of who the Bills picked but rather what they spent.  The folks complaining about the McCargo pick aren't stating that he's a bad player or a bad fit, but that maybe the Bills didn't need to trade the 3rd-round pick to move up to take him.

 

If New England had spent a No. 1 pick on Brady, knowing then what we knew THEN, they would have overpaid because Brady would have been available in later rounds.

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Well...

 

Pick # 26 - Trade Value 700

 

Pick's # 42 and #73 - Trade Value 705 combined

 

So the compensation was about right...

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It's not a question of who the Bills picked but rather what they spent.  The folks complaining about the McCargo pick aren't stating that he's a bad player or a bad fit, but that maybe the Bills didn't need to trade the 3rd-round pick to move up to take him.

 

If New England had spent a No. 1 pick on Brady, knowing then what we knew THEN, they would have overpaid because Brady would have been available in later rounds.

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Overpaid according to whom? Had they realized that he was that good notwithstanding everyone else's assessment, it would have made them smart. The only issue then becomes, how long to wait given that your assumption is that no one else sees what you see. It certainly isn't because you failed to undervalue him like everyone else.

 

The issue with any player, is whether the value assessment is accurate. If the Bills give McCargo a late first round draft grade, and he turns out to play at that level or better, the only complaint you can have is that they should have waited to get him as a steal because no one else gave him a high grade and thus they could have had him cheaper. Only thing is, you have no idea whether another team ahead of the Bills also graded him that high, and I would assume that the Bills had some intelligence that another team was targeting him as well.

 

Do you really think that had the Bills thought he would have been there at their #2 that they would have traded picks to move up?

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Overpaid according to whom?  Had they realized that he was that good notwithstanding everyone else's assessment, it would have made them smart.  The only issue then becomes, how long to wait given that your assumption is that no one else sees what you see.  It certainly isn't because you failed to undervalue him like everyone else.

 

The issue with any player, is whether the value assessment is accurate.  If the Bills give McCargo a late first round draft grade, and he turns out to play at that level or better, the only complaint you can have is that they should have waited to get him as a steal because no one else gave him a high grade and thus they could have had him cheaper.  Only thing is, you have no idea whether another team ahead of the Bills also graded him that high, and I would assume that the Bills had some intelligence that another team was targeting him as well.

 

Do you really think that had the Bills thought he would have been there at their #2 that they would have traded picks to move up?

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To answer your question, no. I'm just explaining the argument; I'm not rendering judgment.

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Do you know he was going to be?

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Do you know he wasn't? We can go round and round all day with this. There's enough information out there to make an educated guess. That guess suggests that he'd be there at 42. If he wasn't, so what? You can't target specific players and go out of your way to make sure you select them. You have to have faith that your scouting department is good and let the draft come to you. The only way you trade up to select a player is if there is overwhelming evidence that multiple teams have that player targeted. Based on the info out there it doesn't seem like that was the case.

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Do you know he wasn't?  We can go round and round all day with this.  There's enough information out there to make an educated guess.  That guess suggests that he'd be there at 42.  If he wasn't, so what?  You can't target specific players and go out of your way to make sure you select them.  You have to have faith that your scouting department is good and let the draft come to you.  The only way you trade up to select a player is if there is overwhelming evidence that multiple teams have that player targeted.  Based on the info out there it doesn't seem like that was the case.

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My lack of this information is exactly why I'm not critical of the decision, but if you're right that there weren't a lot of teams targeting him, then you're also right that it was a poor decision. And dead-on about not targeting one player (unless the team has a #1-3 overall pick or something).

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