This roster is a disaster however…..

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Not sure I understand what you mean.

 

Josh was a top 10 pick, Keon was a 2nd round pick, but we only traded back 5 spots from #28 in the first round to #33 in the second round (still using our first round pick on him, we just got some extra compensation for the trades). I wasn't trying to say those picks are somehow of equal value, I was just looking at our recent top picks (mostly first rounders, with Keon included because he was our first pick even if it was early second round). I only included Josh and Tremaine in the conversation to point out that they were both kind of projects as well (despite being early- and mid-first round picks---rather than late first round picks). Many teams were scared off by Josh being too raw, bad completion %, etc. And it did take 2-3 years for Josh to develop (even though he showed tons of flashes in those first couple of seasons).

coleman was a second round pick

 

you wouldnt say we used pick #12 to draft allen

[folz]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

coleman was a second round pick

 

you wouldnt say we used pick #12 to draft allen

 

Fair enough.

[GoBills808]

Just now, folz said:

 

Fair enough.

im not trying to be pedantic. i think the way we phrase these things impacts perception

 

if we say we used a first on coleman, the perception is that he's a much bigger miss than what he actually is- a second rd WR who we almost certainly were not enamored of, hence the multiple tradebacks that landed us in that spot

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

im not trying to be pedantic. i think the way we phrase these things impacts perception

 

if we say we used a first on coleman, the perception is that he's a much bigger miss than what he actually is- a second rd WR who we almost certainly were not enamored of, hence the multiple tradebacks that landed us in that spot

 

And a second rounder vs first round has a different extension schedule.  I thought it was signaling a higher floor - lower ceiling player - which fit the McConkey hype and not the Coleman profile (Coleman had less time at the position and was considered more of the athlete that needed training). 

 

Didn't mean it wouldn't work out - they moved down several times before taking Cook.

 

But Coleman is starting to look like he could be a huge miss.  The FO just needed a WR2 out of the pick and right now they don't have that, IMO.  G Davis is beating Coleman out.  

[Buffaloflash]

On 12/8/2025 at 7:12 AM, Steptide said:

My fear is that McDermotts defense is really no better than it's ever been. I'll explain. After we went up 11 yesterday, the Bengals get the ball and Burrow just chucks it right down the field in 2 or 3 plays and throws a td to Higgins. If it's the playoffs and we're up with a min or 2 left, I have zero confidence the defense can do anything. I don't know if it's the prevent or what. 

I can't understand the determination not to change defensive play calling when the other team's WRs are basically walking out and finding an open spot in our zone, and waiting there for a 10-20 yard pass?

I also don't understand why these CB (Benford excluded) aren't coached, that to make an interception, you need to look for and find the ball first.

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, folz said:

You could probably even include Josh and Tremaine Edmunds in that philosophy (even though they were picked earlier in the round). 

 

I think that can work if you really have a feel/like for a player, but not sure that it should be the philosophy every year. Seems a little too boom or bust for my taste. Rousseau and Kincaid are very solid players, Elam did not work out, and things aren't looking great for Keon at the moment. It worked wonderfully with Josh (although he was a top 10 pick) and Tremaine is more like Rousseau/Kincaid (though he was selected mid-round, not late 1st too). I haven't paid too much attention to Tremaine since he left, but watching the Bears game on Sunday I was surprised to hear the announcer call him one of Chicago's superstars (has he been playing that well or was the announcer just glazing?).

 

I think Josh and Edmunds are different. 

 

First, the last sure-fire #1 overall QB in the draft was Peyton Manning. There are essentially no QBs in college who have anything close to showing  everything they need to be star NFL QBs, so that means every QB pick is a bet.  You have to suck it up and bet on someone.  Beane and McDermott understood that Josh was less of a bet than some teams thoughts, but they knew it still was a bet. 

 

Edmunds was definitely a bet, but he was a bet of different kind. First, he didn't have much downside.  It was pretty clear that guy was going to play linebacker on some team, either in the middle or on the outside.  He was just too talented and had too much size to have much bust potential.  So, the bet was sort of risk free - at worst, you're going to get a linebacker who can play, at best you're going to get a Hall of Fame player, a physical freak who had the potential to be talked about with the greatest linebackers of all time.  Elam and Coleman and Kincaid have never been considered to have that kind of upside. 

 

I agree with pretty much all the stuff I didn't quote, by the way. I just think Allen and Edmunds were different. 

[FireChans]

6 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

then we almost lost to a pretty bad chargers team where Josh passed for under 160 also

We almost lost a game we were up 24-6 in the 3rd Q?

 

I think you are conflating the two chargers games in the Allen era.

 

Ultimstely, I wasn’t trying to say there was never a bad offensive game, I just think the 2020 offense was best equipped to make good or great Josh Allen games as easy as possible. The Niners game comes to mind as a team with a very good defense that he just smoked.

 

 

 

6 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

another interesting discussion point is I think there’s been a bit of a swing back towards defense since 2020 so who knows how big of an effect that is having.  This year there’s 4 or 5 teams averaging over 370 yards per game and in 2020 it was half the league.  It’d be interesting to average all teams output but offense seems to be way down 

Does this have anything to do with the change in touchback rules I wonder.

[HardyBoy]

9 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The first run SB teams had Seymour, McGinnest, Bruschi, Samuels, Ty Law, Vrabel.  That's a pretty stacked Defense--not built for "depth". 

 

And then Tom Brady got paid...

[Mr. WEO]

13 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

 

And then Tom Brady got paid...

 

 

and then.....?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

 

Does this have anything to do with the change in touchback rules I wonder.

 

That's a driver compared to years outside of 2020 perhaps. 

 

IMO, the offenses were so much better on average league wide in 2020 vs anytime in the following five seasons because the stadiums were cleared out due to Covid and the offenses could freely communicate and get in rhythm. Even offensive players playing at home I think can sometimes get overhyped and play out of sync with even just a little bit of fan noise. These games were being played like practices. It's crazy to go back and watch the non broadcast videos of the games from 2020. The networks did a good job of making these games feel like regular games rather than what they really felt like which were scrimmages without fans.

 

A second point on 2020 Josh vs 2020 Allen, and we see this with a lot of players, that initial breakout season is hard to duplicate. Mahomes has never duplicated his 2018 breakout campaign. It took Lamar 5 seasons to match his 2019 breakout season. But even then, one could argue his 2019 season was still his best as he was a force with his legs in 2019 (83QBR) compared to 2024 (75 QBR). 

 

And then there are the Carson Wentz, CJ Stroud and Jayden Daniels of the world. Players that in their first or second season were in the MVP discussion and then either flamed out completely or at the least have yet to regain anywhere near that breakout season form. 

 

QB's that breakout, tend to take teams and defensive coordinators by surprise. Then those coordinators and teams make small adjustments in how to defend those QB's better. 

 

Good news for us with this trend is that Drake Maye is having a fantastic season, odds are it will be several or many years before he puts up a similar season or betters it.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 12/8/2025 at 6:30 AM, Xwnyer said:

Even though Beane has done a terrible job assembling this roster we are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and have a remote chance of finishing first in the East.  Meanwhile teams like Bengals, Ravens and Chiefs are almost eliminated from the playoffs yet people thought those rosters are in much better shape than ours.  Could you imagine if Josh had the weapons Burrow has or we had a defense that can actually generate pressure on the QB?  We are lucky we have Superman on our side but it would be nice if he had a supporting cast like the Superman has with the Justice League 😀

 

If we don’t win the east being the fifth seed won’t be a bad thing Pitt and Balt are terrible and as long as Cincy doesn’t end up winning that division I can see us winning a playoff game on the road.

 

I don’t think it’s a “disaster.” That’s an over exaggeration. There are areas that need drastic improvement such as the pass rush and WRs who can stretch the field. Injuries have been devastating, but you can’t really “improve” health. I think the Bills have some of the best depth in the NFL defensively. I don’t go into a game panicking if a starting LB or DT goes down. 

 

Offensively, this is the most balanced  Allen has had. I don’t really have to explain Cook’s role as it speaks for itself. 1308 yards rushing and still has 4 games to go. People really don’t appreciate how much of an advantage an elite running game is come playoff time. 

 

The Tight Ends are also an area where the Bills are near top of the league. Hawes emergence has been a pleasant surprise. He’s the type of versatile player you see on most championship teams. Kincaid’s only barrier is his health. Knox is finally the player we all knew he could be. All in all, very strong unit. They will be heavily relied upon against the Patriots. 

 

O-line is another unit which i think is at the strongest it’s been under the McDermott regime. In years prior, the Bills offense was much more finesse. 

Always top of the league in pass protection, but not a ton of push in the run game. In 2025, all of that has changed. Pass protection isn’t elite like years past, but I don’t mind because they are running it down the opposition’s throat. 

[BearNorth]

Still curious what's going through the Vulcan mind meld of McD, Babich and the rest of the defensive staff

 

In the Cinci game, PFF had our DB's graded as follows:

 

Benford - 59 snaps - 90.7 grade, key int for TD, sack, basically neutralized Chase

Hancock - 22 snaps - 69.1 grade, solid day

Bishop - 45  snaps - 60.5 grade, cramped up in the 4th Qtr

Hairston - 25 snaps - 59 grade, not bad for a rookie against the Bengals receivers

Poyer - 47 snaps - 51.6 grade, showing his age

Taron - 59 snaps - 39.3 grade, not a great showing

Tre' - 36 snaps - 34.9 grade, yikes [and frequent victim of Higgins]

Lewis - 25 snaps 27.7 grade, can we do better?

 

So basically 40% of our DB snaps are below replacement level.

[Wraith]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

IMO, the offenses were so much better on average league wide in 2020 vs anytime in the following five seasons because the stadiums were cleared out due to Covid and the offenses could freely communicate and get in rhythm. Even offensive players playing at home I think can sometimes get overhyped and play out of sync with even just a little bit of fan noise. These games were being played like practices. It's crazy to go back and watch the non broadcast videos of the games from 2020. The networks did a good job of making these games feel like regular games rather than what they really felt like which were scrimmages without fans.

I remember being so hyped when MLB started back up in July 2020, but that regular season was a total dud because the broadcasts couldn't hide the empty baseball stadiums and the missing energy. Therefore I had low expectations for the NFL. When that season started up, it was a revelation because those games actually felt normal. The camera angles could hide the empty stadiums and the play-by-play announcer supplies a ton of the energy on a football broadcast. I have often thought about how those environments affected the quality of play of those baseball and football players.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

That's a driver compared to years outside of 2020 perhaps. 

 

IMO, the offenses were so much better on average league wide in 2020 vs anytime in the following five seasons because the stadiums were cleared out due to Covid and the offenses could freely communicate and get in rhythm. Even offensive players playing at home I think can sometimes get overhyped and play out of sync with even just a little bit of fan noise. These games were being played like practices. It's crazy to go back and watch the non broadcast videos of the games from 2020. The networks did a good job of making these games feel like regular games rather than what they really felt like which were scrimmages without fans.

 

A second point on 2020 Josh vs 2020 Allen, and we see this with a lot of players, that initial breakout season is hard to duplicate. Mahomes has never duplicated his 2018 breakout campaign. It took Lamar 5 seasons to match his 2019 breakout season. But even then, one could argue his 2019 season was still his best as he was a force with his legs in 2019 (83QBR) compared to 2024 (75 QBR). 

 

And then there are the Carson Wentz, CJ Stroud and Jayden Daniels of the world. Players that in their first or second season were in the MVP discussion and then either flamed out completely or at the least have yet to regain anywhere near that breakout season form. 

 

QB's that breakout, tend to take teams and defensive coordinators by surprise. Then those coordinators and teams make small adjustments in how to defend those QB's better. 

 

Good news for us with this trend is that Drake Maye is having a fantastic season, odds are it will be several or many years before he puts up a similar season or betters it.

Was just lookin at the stats for this and it’s wild…this year there’s 4 teams with over 370 total yards per game…last year there were 5,2023 there were 6,2022 there were 8, 2021 there were 9, 2020 there were 15!

 

feels like offense has trailed off a bit each year and the empty stadiums in 2020 made it a lot easier on offenses on top of that 

Edited 5 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[HardyBoy]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

and then.....?

 

The Bills were number one in defense or damn close a bunch of years before Allen got paid. 

 

Depth player route or a few elite players and you kinda need to collude into getting a randy moss for a 4th was it? And then spy on teams and who knows whatever else...

 

But you really can't have both depth and several elite players, until you're in the Stafford era of an elite QBs timeline and you trade all your picks and go all in on one last window

[colin]

1 hour ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

I don’t think it’s a “disaster.” That’s an over exaggeration. There are areas that need drastic improvement such as the pass rush and WRs who can stretch the field. Injuries have been devastating, but you can’t really “improve” health. I think the Bills have some of the best depth in the NFL defensively. I don’t go into a game panicking if a starting LB or DT goes down. 

 

Offensively, this is the most balanced  Allen has had. I don’t really have to explain Cook’s role as it speaks for itself. 1308 yards rushing and still has 4 games to go. People really don’t appreciate how much of an advantage an elite running game is come playoff time. 

 

The Tight Ends are also an area where the Bills are near top of the league. Hawes emergence has been a pleasant surprise. He’s the type of versatile player you see on most championship teams. Kincaid’s only barrier is his health. Knox is finally the player we all knew he could be. All in all, very strong unit. They will be heavily relied upon against the Patriots. 

 

O-line is another unit which i think is at the strongest it’s been under the McDermott regime. In years prior, the Bills offense was much more finesse. 

Always top of the league in pass protection, but not a ton of push in the run game. In 2025, all of that has changed. Pass protection isn’t elite like years past, but I don’t mind because they are running it down the opposition’s throat. 

 

gaps in the nfl are small.  if we had full health on the D, w hoyt, carter, bosa, rook jackson, and ed oliver out there we might have 2 more road wins (miami and houston).

 

to show how small -- having kinkaid available means our team is 8-1 in those games.  we lost atl without him, we lost to the fins and houston without him, we are 1-3 when he doesn't play.  the one game we did lose with him, hosting NE, we got horribly jobbed by the refs (100 yards in penalties is shocking) and we had 3 turnovers, which is very rare at home.  and we still lost by only 3 and kinkaid went of vs the cheats.

 

on D, our epa vs the run goes from bottom 5 when bernard has played to top 3 when shaq thompson has played.  part of that is bernard is hurt, but a lot of that is thompson is a legit talented big strong MLB, and bernard is small and not strong and suited more to the WLB type role for us.  i also think thompson is a much better signal caller on D.  the most striking example was the atl game.  we got trucked unmerciful in the first half w bernard sticking it up, and we were so so so much better in the 2nd half w thompson.

 

if the roster is a disaster, it's because we have no talent at WR, and we have had so much talent missing or playing hurt on D.  and even then, this team is potent w kinkaid and thompson on the field.

[Mr. WEO]

48 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:

 

The Bills were number one in defense or damn close a bunch of years before Allen got paid. 

 

Depth player route or a few elite players and you kinda need to collude into getting a randy moss for a 4th was it? And then spy on teams and who knows whatever else...

 

But you really can't have both depth and several elite players, until you're in the Stafford era of an elite QBs timeline and you trade all your picks and go all in on one last window

 

 

not sure what a lot of this means.  Moss won zero SB rings.  The went to 5 more SB (won 3) years after everyone knew about spygate.

 

every teams backup are in a similar large group of skill level.

 

2021 was Rams (and Stafford's) "last window"?