SHOULD the Bills pick up Dalton Kincaid’s 5th year option?

[NewEra]

19 minutes ago, tigerthelion said:

Let him play out this year and next.  If he can show more consistency with production and health, pick up the option for 27.   I don't believe the team should be in any rush to pick up the option right now. Kincaid is still largely unproven. 

That’s not how this works. We have to pick up the option before next season.

[tigerthelion]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

That’s not how this works. We have to pick up the option before next season.

Oops, my bad.   In that case, I think I still let it play out without picking up his option. 

[GASabresIUFan]

Beane will (& should) sign him to an extension.  

[Buffalo716]

He has the third highest yards per route ran for a tight end in NFL history this season 

 

Get him healthy he's going to be the difference Maker in the playoffs that can make our offense unstoppable

[DrDawkinstein]

The option question is a no-brainer. Of course you pick it up. At only $8M, even more so.

 

Then see how it plays out for an extension. I believe he has earned, and is worthy, of a second contract. Just dont make the Knox mistake again. No need to pay these guys $15M+. Should be more like an $8M-10M average.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

He has the third highest yards per route ran for a tight end in NFL history this season 

 

Get him healthy he's going to be the difference Maker in the playoffs that can make our offense unstoppable

That yard per route run chart someone posted had me laughing pretty hard.  That’s insane.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

That yard per route run chart someone posted had me laughing pretty hard.  That’s insane.

 

I remarked in one of the other threads 

 

That again Cincinnati the bills were pulling out a Peyton Manning special 

 

Trap play action tight end crossface 

 

It really sells the run.. and it's a very highly effective play 

 

Peyton Manning and Dallas Clark perfected it.. Tom Brady and gronkowski stole it

 

We ran it really well a few times... To Dawson Knox maybe once to Dalton 

 

We open that up and it's going to add a different dimension

 

 

[JohnNord]

On 12/7/2025 at 7:12 AM, EmotionallyUnstable said:

The 2023 first rounder class will have the team option 5th year decisions made this spring. Based on his performance and playing time, Kincaid’s 2027 season is projected to cost Buffalo 8.7 million if they choose to exercise it. 
 

I believe the Bills will pick this up, locking him in for the next two seasons (26’-27’). But SHOULD they continue down this path? Or would you prefer they let him play out is last year of the deal and see where it takes them, sign him to a multi-year cheaper deal, or just cut him loose? 
 

Personally, I believe they should exercise the 5th year option and that’s it. The injuries are too concerning for me to want to hitch my wagon to him, even at a discounted rate extending him early. 
 

I think the 8.7 is well worth another year, and if things trend upwards after next season, you could always extending him post-2026 with him under contract still in 2027 and plenty of time to work things out. 
 

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

5th year option is a no-brainer.  What Beane tends to do is to re-sign players they like after 3 seasons before the 5th year kicks in.  I think they like Kincaid but I wouldn’t re-sign him to an extension until he can show he stay healthy. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

5th year option is a no-brainer.  What Beane tends to do is to re-sign players they like after 3 seasons before the 5th year kicks in.  I think they like Kincaid but I wouldn’t re-sign him to an extension until he can show he stay healthy. 

This is not universally true for first round players. Although this past off season we saw a few guys on 4 year deals get re-upped after 3 years (Bernard, Cook, Benford, Shakir). 
 

When it comes to first rounders they’ve done this with Allen and Tre White after theee years, but most recently have waited until after the 4th year to extend Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau. 

[saundena]

Love him, but he's always injured 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

No need to pay these guys $15M+. Should be more like an $8M-10M average.

If he signed for 8-10 million I’d be shocked. 
 

That 8.7 in two years would put him as the 18th highest paid TE by average contract value THIS season. Cost will only go up.

Some recent deals for the upper tier, not elite guys: 

 

Mark Andrews - 13 million

Jake Furgeson - 12 million 

Pat Freirmeurh - 12 mil

Dalton Schultz - 12 

Cole Kmet - 12 

 

If he signed this offseason, I’d fully expect him to be in that range, let alone in two years it could absolutely be 15 mil.

 

To me it is more about the guarentees, when they give them and the length of the contract (he’s already 26y/o). 

Edited 9 hours ago by EmotionallyUnstable

[transplantbillsfan]

Of course they should. He's a Tight End. The 5th year option will be pretty cheap.

[Dr.Sack]

Yes, Pick it up (2027) and you can still franchise him 2028 and 2029. So Kincaid will be age 31 when you actually have to commit long term $. 

[Thurman#1]

On 12/8/2025 at 7:06 AM, Nephilim17 said:

Option, for sure.

But to me, he's the offensive Milano: better than average player who makes some big plays — but can't stay healthy.

See if he can stack together at least 14 or 15 games next season. If he can't, I'd be wary of extending him for big bucks.

 

 

Milano was a lot better than "an average player who makes some big plays." For two or maybe three years there he was top three or so, and once he was All-Pro. Yes, staying healthy was and is a concern, for Milano and for Kincaid.

 

They signed Milano to a contract that did not pay him like an All-Pro. That was partly a legitimate concern with his  ability to stay healthy.

 

They should try to extend Kincaid with a contract that is very very good, but has some injury protection for the team. If that doesn't work out, pick up the option. 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The option question is a no-brainer. Of course you pick it up. At only $8M, even more so.

 

Then see how it plays out for an extension. I believe he has earned, and is worthy, of a second contract. Just dont make the Knox mistake again. No need to pay these guys $15M+. Should be more like an $8M-10M average.

 

Ah I didn't realise the option only cost $8m in my previous answer. If that is the case, no brainer to pick it up. But I am in no rush to pay him. I am not ruling it out but he has to play a full season and have a truly exceptional year if he wants the big tight end bucks.

4 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

Yes, Pick it up (2027) and you can still franchise him 2028 and 2029. So Kincaid will be age 31 when you actually have to commit long term $. 

 

Hardly anyone plays on the tag now though. It is generally just a tool to stop someone walking in March and give more time for negotiation. 

 

Given he will be 29 coming off the option year his agent would be totally incompetent to let him play on the franchise tag. Life changing money is very much a one time shot for Dalton. He will get a 2nd deal.... his age when drafted means he probably won't get a third.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The option question is a no-brainer. Of course you pick it up. At only $8M, even more so.

 

Then see how it plays out for an extension. I believe he has earned, and is worthy, of a second contract. Just dont make the Knox mistake again. No need to pay these guys $15M+. Should be more like an $8M-10M average.

 

 

Kincaid won't sign for that. Nor should he. 

 

Right now 14 TEs have contracts that exceed $10M average salary. Even with his injuries, he ranked 10th in yards, 8th in catches, 11th in YAC and 5th in catch percentage ... as a rookie in 2023.

 

In 2024, even with his injuries, he was 10th in yards, 8th in catches, 11th in YAC and 6th in catch percentage.

 

Even this year, with several games left, he's 15th in yards, 7th in catch percentage and 14th in YAC.

 

You simply aren't going to get him to sign the 14th best contract in terms of yearly salary. Not going to happen.

 

He'll cost $15M or more. The question is whether the team can get some kind of games played guarantees baked in, and also when we sign him to that long contract. Contracts signed after the 3rd year tend to be lower (which is part of the reason Cook got less than he thought he would). Wait a bit and you can get more, but you risk never getting that large contract if you suffer really serious injury.

Edited 4 hours ago by Thurman#1

[Kelly to Allen]

He's a special talent and it's wise to keep really talented players.

 

 

[davefan66]

Kincaid has elite skills, absolutely pick up option. If an extension can be reached before that, do it. If not, extend and work on that contract.  

 

Knox can be had cheaper if he restructures again, hopefully he will. Hawes is cost controlled on a rookie contract. These three make up a good TE room and would prefer to keep them all. Knox would be the odd man out if his contract doesn’t work for the team.

 

Easy to say all this, but need to see where his contract hit would fit the next few seasons. We are over the cap for next season already. To keep Kincaid and make the roster adjustments they need to will cost them, but it can be done. Does the team really want to spend the money to keep winning? That’s the question.

[Buffalo ill]

8 hours ago, saundena said:

Love him, but he's always injured 

Yep.  Can't dump a bunch of money on someone who can't stay healthy.  If he proves he can play a full season he could be worth paying.

[tigerthelion]

Yeah, I changed my  mind.  8 million and change is peanuts in the grand scheme of things, so, yeah, the option will be picked up.