Opening drives vs Burrow

[mushypeaches]

I'll be in the stands on Sunday and putting the over/under at somewhere around 578 for how many times I yell about Bills corners giving too much cushion to Bengals receivers.  

[transient]

4 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This is nuts. Might as well onsides Kick it.

[Chicken Boo]

 

Now they've got this guy, Tinsley, that's showing a lot of potential.  

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

You can't. current NFL rules only allow you to onside kick in the 4th quarter and only if your team is behind.

 

Somehow, I did not know this. 

 

Wtf?

[TheBrownBear]

If we go zone, Burrow will pick at our carcass all day long.

[Comebackkid]

4 hours ago, Casey D said:

This is kind of silly isn't it.  Last game was over two years ago at Cincinnati.  Game was 21-7 at halftime.  Bengals scored three points in second half in 24-18 win.  Really different teams now.

 

People are scarred from the 2022 playoff game (in January 2023) at home.  Bills were emotionally spent after all the weather issues that year and, of course, what happened to Hamlin.  And after the game Burrow was smoking cigars and acting like an a-hole, so the PTSD is understandable.  Hopefully players that were on the team then remember.  But this Bengals defense is a shadow of what it was two years ago, and none of this is predictive of what will happen Sunday IMO.  But I could be wrong. 😎 

Bills fans are scarred...   from being bills fans.    that game just added a lil more scar tissue

[Gregg]

Avoid the NFL Network on Saturday at 1:00 PM. Replaying the Bengals - Bills playoff game from 2022.

[BuffaloBillyG]

On the one hand, it's not really applicable because those teams are not this team. Different teams, different years.

 

On the other hand, the Bills have often gotten smacked on defense on the first couple drives before they make adjustments.

 

A fast start by Cincinnati wouldn't shock me. As long as we can keep up out of the gate we should be ok.

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Now they've got this guy, Tinsley, that's showing a lot of potential.  

 

Somehow, I did not know this. 

 

Wtf?

When they made the new onside formation rule of equal players each side of kicker they also made this stupid rule.

[gonzo1105]

I know people exclude that Hamlin game but he was also carving us up in that game before the game was stopped 

[sven233]

Time to play some 2 high man.  Put Hairston on the field and let him run with Chase and use Benford's size to try and combat Higgins.  Bracket them both over the top and then send the house at the QB.  Their line is not great.  There's a reason their QBs have taken a beating this year.  Unfortunately, we have no real pass rushers active for this game, so you are not going to win with 4 which would be ideal, but it is what it is.

 

The last several times we have played them, we have tried playing McDermott's crap zone scheme and Burrow has literally not missed a throw on the first series.  Time to change things up and do something totally different.  Heck, you force 1 incompletion and you've already done better than the last 3 opening drives against them.  As much as McDermott hates this style of defense, we might not have a choice.  

 

This is a game we will really miss Oliver.  Burrow can't really move in the pocket with his toe and the stuff he's wearing in the shoe.  Pressure up the middle would be huge.  But, he's not there, so it is what it is.  However, I am blitzing the A gaps constantly to try and force him to move a little bit off his spot and hope that it just affects him enough to be less accurate than he normally is.

 

This isn't a great matchup for us, especially with the guys we have out.  Normally, I'd say we'll just have to win a shoot out, but the fact is, we can't do that this year.  We just don't have the horses, the scheme, or the OC to win that type of game.  Somehow, we have to keep them to around 20 and hope our offense can do just enough to squeak by.  Not going to be an easy game.

[mjt328]

Derrick Henry is the nightmare RB matchup for Sean McDermott's defense.

 

Joe Burrow is the nightmare QB matchup for McDermott's defense.

 

To have a prayer against Burrow, the corners need to play press/man coverage and the D-Line needs to get quick pressure.  Our defense has historically been mostly zone with an inconsistent pass rush.

 

[TheBrownBear]

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

Derrick Henry is the nightmare RB matchup for Sean McDermott's defense.

 

Joe Burrow is the nightmare QB matchup for McDermott's defense.

 

To have a prayer against Burrow, the corners need to play press/man coverage and the D-Line needs to get quick pressure.  Our defense has historically been mostly zone with an inconsistent pass rush.

 

One of the reasons we haven't been able to beat Mahomes in the playoffs is because in those games he gets rid of the ball quickly and plays "Burrow-like."  In the regular season he plays loosey goosey Mahomes sandlot ball and we generally fare well against him.

[Royale with Cheese]

That is truly an amazing stat.  

Can we get his completion % under 90% on this first drive?

[T.E.]

4 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

You can't. current NFL rules only allow you to onside kick in the 4th quarter and only if your team is behind.

The league adoptintg a rule like this at roughly the same time they decided to get into bed with various gambling apps is not shady at all, no sir!

[Livinginthepast]

5 hours ago, Casey D said:

This is kind of silly isn't it.  Last game was over two years ago at Cincinnati.  Game was 21-7 at halftime.  Bengals scored three points in second half in 24-18 win.  Really different teams now.

 

People are scarred from the 2022 playoff game (in January 2023) at home.  Bills were emotionally spent after all the weather issues that year and, of course, what happened to Hamlin.  And after the game Burrow was smoking cigars and acting like an a-hole, so the PTSD is understandable.  Hopefully players that were on the team then remember.  But this Bengals defense is a shadow of what it was two years ago, and none of this is predictive of what will happen Sunday IMO.  But I could be wrong. 😎 

Very true, but heres one more scary observation, Our defense is arguably worse, older and more injury riddled than that playoff game at the moment. McD has occasionally shown that he has learned from experience against certain teams (KC at least in the regular season) but has he learned to neutralize Burrow and his strengths? The last game vs the Bengals in November 2023, we did slightly better but had the same problems as the playoff game. 

[Livinginthepast]

4 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

You can't. current NFL rules only allow you to onside kick in the 4th quarter and only if your team is behind.

My bold idea was as soon as the Bills lost the coin toss in OT in the 13 seconds game vs KC that the Bills defense was so bad (which meant we would inevitably lose (and we did)) that McD should have done the balls out call of all time which was kicking an onside kick to start overtime. They never would have expected us to do it and if successful we win the game. I'm not sure if that would be even possible/legal with today's onside kick rules.

[machine gun kelly]

21 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

This is a reasonable take with sound logic. 

I think that offense is worse. They still have a crap OL. They still have some nice targets to throw to. But Joe Mixon of a few years ago > Chase Brown. I don't think we need to focus on the run as much this go around.

True. But he's got that really cool spinning throw he made in warm ups. 

the last remark was funny.

[machine gun kelly]

16 hours ago, sven233 said:

Time to play some 2 high man.  Put Hairston on the field and let him run with Chase and use Benford's size to try and combat Higgins.  Bracket them both over the top and then send the house at the QB.  Their line is not great.  There's a reason their QBs have taken a beating this year.  Unfortunately, we have no real pass rushers active for this game, so you are not going to win with 4 which would be ideal, but it is what it is.

 

The last several times we have played them, we have tried playing McDermott's crap zone scheme and Burrow has literally not missed a throw on the first series.  Time to change things up and do something totally different.  Heck, you force 1 incompletion and you've already done better than the last 3 opening drives against them.  As much as McDermott hates this style of defense, we might not have a choice.  

 

This is a game we will really miss Oliver.  Burrow can't really move in the pocket with his toe and the stuff he's wearing in the shoe.  Pressure up the middle would be huge.  But, he's not there, so it is what it is.  However, I am blitzing the A gaps constantly to try and force him to move a little bit off his spot and hope that it just affects him enough to be less accurate than he normally is.

 

This isn't a great matchup for us, especially with the guys we have out.  Normally, I'd say we'll just have to win a shoot out, but the fact is, we can't do that this year.  We just don't have the horses, the scheme, or the OC to win that type of game.  Somehow, we have to keep them to around 20 and hope our offense can do just enough to squeak by.  Not going to be an easy game.

Sven (or should I call you Walking Tall- i think that was show where Bo Swenson was the walking tall dude- I was a little kid so I think that was right), I agree with you're take.  I would add a couple points.

 

1.  Cooks needs to get more into the game plan as a deep outside threat as he’s done it for years and a pro on route running.  Davis also needs to be thrown intermediate and one or two deep threats.  Shakir is going to be Shakir, and I can see Hawes being a good 7 yard dump off as no one wants to make that business decision.  Knox even can be targeted in over the middle routes.

 

2.  The running back dump off option will help as both Cook and Ty have proven they are difficult to tackle in open space.  For god’s sake cut out the behind the LOS scrimmage throws.

 

3. We already expect Cook to get a heavy run dose and on those plays we should play 12 personnel.  Their D Line and O line suck and they are the 31st against the run, and 32nd against the pass.

 

4.  It’s true on defense, our best pass rushers are out, so we might as well drop 7-8 and blanket them.  It somewhat makes sense to activate Lawson, and push Sanders to the outside as they set the edge well as Rousseau so they are completely one dimensional.  They shouldn’t be able to run at will.  They just aren’t like the better rushing offenses we've faced.

 

5.  Thompson has remain in the middle as if nothing else Bernard is banged up and it’s hurting us.  I know he’s out this week anyway, but as long as Thompson is in the middle we have a better rushing defense.  One of the analysts on WGR, I think Joe Marino juxtaposed between Bernard and Thompson and it was striking.  I know a number of you aren’t crazy about Jeremy or Joe, but most in this board like Marino and his podcasts.

 

6.  I certainly hope Hairston and Hancock continue to see their reps increase by the week, as White has been better when Hairston’s is sharing the duty as well as Hancock to Poyer.

 

7.  So in the end, these are just a couple of additions to Sven’s excellent post.

 

Most importantly, GO BILLS!