Hate to say it, but Bills @ Ravens in the Wild Card seems like the most likely scenario right now

[Gregg]

It's too bad the Browns couldn't pull off the upset yesterday. At this point I can't see the Steelers holding on to the division. The Ravens will catch them and win the AFCN.

[SCBills]

12 minutes ago, corta765 said:

football is a weird weird weird sport and losses happen out of the blue that no one sees coming that shake everything.

Would be super cool if this started happening with NE.  
 

Just can’t imagine they go an entire season without dropping a game nobody saw coming, but so far they’re batting 1000. 

[milfandcookies]

We got lucky, gifted by the referees, last time we played Baltimore and that was at home.

This would be the nightmare scenario.

 

We need Pittsburgh to win that division 

 

 

[Low Positive]

You guys don't watch enough AFC North football. There is almost no chance that the Ravens beat Pittsburgh twice. They couldn't do it when they had Lamar, and the Steelers were starting a combination of Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph. They lost to them in Pittsburgh last year with Russell Wilson. The best Baltimore has been able to manage since 2020 has been a split. Lets look at the remaining schedules.

 

Balt: 

• Jets
• Bengals (Thanksgiving Night)
• Steelers
• @Bengals
• Pats
• @Packers
• @Steelers

Pitt

• @Bears
• Bills
• @Ravens
• Dolphins
• @Lions
• @Browns
• Ravens

That division will probably come down to a week 18 game in Pittsburgh. 

[NewEra]

Watch the season and enjoy what you can of it.  Crystal Balls are stupid

[No_Matter_What]

32 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

Let's just try and enjoy the season as it unfolds.

 

I know that's been particularly hard this year given the expectations but getting all wrapped up in the "what ifs" just isn't worth the mental anguish (to me anyways). 

 

This team can beat anybody. They can also probably lose to anybody. It's going to be a rollercoaster. 

Don't worry I am enjoying the season. I am one of those guys who hate all these doom and gloom posts.

 

That doesn't mean I am also not enjoying playing with PO calculators. I think it is fun to discuss various options.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Low Positive said:

You guys don't watch enough AFC North football. There is almost no chance that the Ravens beat Pittsburgh twice. They couldn't do it when they had Lamar, and the Steelers were starting a combination of Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph. They lost to them in Pittsburgh last year with Russell Wilson. The best Baltimore has been able to manage since 2020 has been a split. Lets look at the remaining schedules.

 

Balt: 

• Jets
• Bengals (Thanksgiving Night)
• Steelers
• @Bengals
• Pats
• @Packers
• @Steelers

Pitt

• @Bears
• Bills
• @Ravens
• Dolphins
• @Lions
• @Browns
• Ravens

That division will probably come down to a week 18 game in Pittsburgh. 

Bengals somehow beating the Pats would be so clutch, not just for obvious reasons, but because that Thanksgiving game against the Ravens would have juice. 
 

Probably will anyway, being on the holiday, but CIN has an outside shot if they can beat NE. 

[Scott7975]

Tough to say at this point. Lamar could blow out his knee or something between now and then. He’s playing hurt. I know he missed some practice last week with a swollen knee. 
 

they could also lose enough to not make the playoffs at all if the Steelers can win enough. 

[thenorthremembers]

There are a lot of things not clear right now.  How much time will Rodgers miss?  Will he be done for the season?   Is Burrow coming back this year and when?   Will the Colts and Patriots slump at all?

 

Still a ton of moving pieces. 

[Southern McButterpants]

Ravens D is hot garbage.

[BillsMontreal]

From what i saw, i'm not even sure we gonna be a wild card. We should with this 7-3, but i feel like it's not a gimme this year the way we play.

 

We played our games this year to flip the coin in the 4th quarter and it could turn on the worst side for a couple of games in a row.

 

So, it will be a -next game- first for me before thinking about a playoff game.

 

Let see which kind of Bills will play against the Texans.

[No_Matter_What]

12 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

You guys don't watch enough AFC North football. There is almost no chance that the Ravens beat Pittsburgh twice. They couldn't do it when they had Lamar, and the Steelers were starting a combination of Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph. They lost to them in Pittsburgh last year with Russell Wilson. The best Baltimore has been able to manage since 2020 has been a split. Lets look at the remaining schedules.

 

I am well aware of this. I noted in the OP that I am expecting them to split. But even if they do, Ravens are 75% favorites to win that division. 

[corta765]

24 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Would be super cool if this started happening with NE.  
 

Just can’t imagine they go an entire season without dropping a game nobody saw coming, but so far they’re batting 1000. 

Watch it be the Giants who do have a good d-line and the offense can be spunky despite a garbage record

[SCBills]

11 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Tough to say at this point. Lamar could blow out his knee or something between now and then. He’s playing hurt. I know he missed some practice last week with a swollen knee. 
 

they could also lose enough to not make the playoffs at all if the Steelers can win enough. 

Lamar looked awful yesterday. 
 

Not sure what’s going on with him, but he’s clearly playing with a pretty legitimate injury. 
 

If he can’t get healthy, it seems like a ticking time bomb that might put him back on the shelf. 
 

If the Browns had anyone not named Shadeur Sanders at QB, they win that game. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said:

I know things can change a lot between now and the end of the regular season, but at the moment things are shaping up that way, in my opinion.

 

I think it’s safe to say that whoever wins the NFC North will be the 4-seed. My money is on the Ravens, especially now that Rodgers has hurt his wrist. I still think the Steelers will split with them, but the Ravens will probably end up 10–7, and the Steelers will have a hard time matching that. At the same time, it’s hard to imagine a 10–7 (or even 11–6) Ravens team having a better record than any other division winner.

 

So whoever loses the division race in the AFC is most likely going to end up playing at Baltimore.

 

The NYT playoff calculator says the Pats* have an 86% chance and we have 14%. I’d say that’s pretty accurate. Even if we beat them at their place after their bye (which I think we have a solid chance to do), we’d still only be at 29%. We need them to drop one more game than us. So if we win out (which is very hard to do), we need them to lose to the Ravens. If we lose one more, then we need them to lose to the Ravens plus another game. They have the Giants and Dolphins at home, and the Bengals, Ravens, and Jets on the road.

 

If I had to guess, we beat them, lose one more game, they lose to the Ravens, and it all comes down to their last game at the Dolphins. The Fish might pull an upset, but I wouldn’t count on it.

 

There are other possibilities — we could lose the division and end up as the 6-seed or so — but I don’t think we’ll finish worse than 12–5.

 

To sum it up, the most likely scenario right now is Bills @ Ravens.

that would be a wild game. Both teams are just straight-up erratic this year. Have no idea what you are getting from either of them.

[mjt328]

Playing Baltimore might be a blessing in disguise.

 

Even with Lamar Jackson back, that Ravens team doesn't look like the juggernaut most of us expected.  Derrick Henry hasn't been the same since the first 3 quarters of Week 1, and it's possible Jackson will be hobbled the rest of the year.  

 

For some reason, Bills fans would rather play someone like the Colts.  I'm pretty sure that Jonathan Taylor would rush for 250-300 yards against our defense.  And in terms of the Patriots, I'm never comfortable playing a division opponent in the playoffs.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I don’t know how much football most of this board watches, I realize im the weird one for watching all of the nfl that’s possible…the Ravens look terrible. Lamar is banged up and isn’t a good passer when he’s healthy. Hes not even running. They had all they wanted against the browns and got lucky to win. Henry is slow and washed. They have almost nothing on the outside.  It’s painful to watch their offense. I’m not worried. Also, I’m definitely not assuming they win that division. I fully expect Pittsburgh to hang on. They aren’t great but the ravens aren’t even as good as pit

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, TheWei44 said:

It might be the most likely scenario and also be something like a 15-20% probability.  I could definitely see it happening.  So much ball left to play though and if Bills don't win division, sixth seed is very possible too.

Agreed that a lot may change.

 

But right now it's more than 15-20%. We are 52% to end up 5th seed and Ravens are 68% to end up 4th. That makes 35% that this actually happens. And I think NYT model is pretty accurate. It is very realistic option.

[Warriorspikes51]

let's just take the division and get the 1 seed at 14-3   

Colts and Broncos will lose multiple games 

Pats lose to us, Ravens...maybe 1 other game.  They finish 13-4 or 12-5  

[HOUSE]

The Ravens will never make the playoffs imo. They love running Lamar and he isn't built for this.

Mark my words, IR