Would you rather playoff seeding scenario?

[Don Otreply]

I would prefer that every opposition QB we face has uncontrolled diarrhea for twenty four hours on the day we play said team, I don’t think that is to much to ask, 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

it’s bugging me out how many people would pass up the #1 seed. With all of the health issues this team has faced along w/ just being banged up in general. Winning 3 games in a row is easier than winning 4. There is no miracle playoff schedule that will make it easier. They are going to have to beat the best teams no matter what. 

[Doc Brown]

It's a great question and shows there's no easy path.  For me, it's REALLY hard to win three road games in a row against good teams.  Especially when we'd pry face the #1 seed in the divisional game who would have two weeks rest.  Give me the home field and a bye week.  There's a chance Baltimore, KC, or Indy would get knocked out in the WC round and we wouldn't have to play both BAL and KC.

[corta765]

1 seed means home all playoffs and only two wins to SB.

It isn't even a debate. If you cannot close with the 1 seed idk what to tell you at that point.

[snamsnoops]

3 hours ago, Heavy Kevi said:

We can beat the chiefs and ravens.

 

Bills are really good after bye weeks.

 

Home games cannot be understated.

 

One less team to beat.

 

Get that 1 seed!

Last game played at Rich stadium, AFCCG

[HappyDays]

No brainer, the 5 seed option. Super Bowl path of Jackson -> Mahomes, vs Rodgers -> Jones -> Nix. Not even a contest.

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I wonder what the odds would be of going to the Super Bowl in scenario A vs. scenario B? We need an oddsmaker on here. 🤣🤣

 

Depends on how you assign win probability in those games. My take is Baltimore and KC are both 50/50 games. Let's say scenario B is Steelers, Colts, Broncos in whatever order. I'd say 75%, 60% and 75% win probability in those games respectively even assuming all are on the road. So scenario A is 25%, scenario B is 33.75%. That seems right to me. I'd rather have 3 easier games than 2 harder games.

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

No brainer, the 5 seed option. Super Bowl path of Jackson -> Mahomes, vs Rodgers -> Jones -> Nix. Not even a contest.

 

Easily 5 seed...our defense against anyone other than Reid in the playoffs is a giant win. They might actually play well, like they have done in other games.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, boyst said:

That's just it. Since I'm only a fan and the outcome truly doesn't change my life I think it would be awesome to go beat the Chiefs to get to the super bowl and win. 

 

I want to go out there slay the dragon, ***** the prom queen, eat my cake, maybe even ***** the dragon and the cake. I want it all. 

 

We can beat KC on Allen's 2nd Super Bowl run. That run can be all nailbiters. I want the 1st Super Bowl to be as easy as possible. Screw all the narratives. Once we get the pressure off us it will be exponentially easier to win the next one.

[boyst]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

We can beat KC on Allen's 2nd Super Bowl run. That run can be all nailbiters. I want the 1st Super Bowl to be as easy as possible. Screw all the narratives. Once we get the pressure off us it will be exponentially easier to win the next one.

nope. want to go beat KC by 4+ after beating Baltimore's Jackson led Ravens by 20+

 

I want Mahomes to throw 110 yards, and 5 picks.  i want Jackson to be 9 for 9, 150 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 INT's, and 47 sacks.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

Maybe I'm old fashioned, but to be the best you gotta beat the best.

 

That isn't true. Philly beat Green Bay, LA, and Washington to get to the Super Bowl last year. They didn't have to "beat the best," they just had to win against tier 2 and 3 opponents. Our path by comparison was Denver, Baltimore, KC. Even if you skip the Denver game I'd still take Philly's path last year over ours 100 times out of 100.

 

I don't understand Bills fans that worry about perception or narratives. The only narrative that matters is that we can't win a Super Bowl. Why are we being picky about what it looks like to get there?

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That isn't true. Philly beat Green Bay, LA, and Washington to get to the Super Bowl last year. They didn't have to "beat the best," they just had to win against tier 2 and 3 opponents. Our path by comparison was Denver, Baltimore, KC. Even if you skip the Denver game I'd still take Philly's path last year over ours 100 times out of 100.

 

I don't understand Bills fans that worry about perception or narratives. The only narrative that matters is that we can't win a Super Bowl. Why are we being picky about what it looks like to get there?

seriously

 

we've never even been to the SB in this era and people are worried about how a championship is going to be perceived lol

[NY to VA to NV to TX to AZ]

I say the 1 seed with the Chiefs and Ravens just because if they are not there, especially the Chiefs, there would be too much bs about the Bills still not beating the Chiefs in the playoffs even if they did ultimately win the SB without the Chiefs in the playoffs. It would still be said that JA17 can’t beat Mahomes in the playoffs. So, yes, everyone that should be there needs to be there so the Bills can run through them and especially the Chiefs. The Ravens, not so much, the Bills have proven that they can beat them in the regular season and playoffs.

[Lionel Hutz]

I can't believe anyone would pick against an option without KC and BAL.

 

If the Chiefs and Ravens are in I guarantee one them makes it to the AFC Championship and there's no path to avoiding them.

[NY to VA to NV to TX to AZ]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

seriously

 

we've never even been to the SB in this era and people are worried about how a championship is going to be perceived lol

It’s just a hypothetical, not a matter of being worried about perception. Ultimately, a Championship is a Championship and I’ll take it no matter how we get it, outside of cheating of course I mean we’re not the Pats. This is just a preference for all of us on how we would like to see things play out, not how they have to play out. I think the vast majority of us don’t really care how it happens, we just want that trophy to come to our house, preferably now or at least some time in our lifetime.

[Gregg]

9 minutes ago, Lionel Hutz said:

I can't believe anyone would pick against an option without KC and BAL.

 

If the Chiefs and Ravens are in I guarantee one them makes it to the AFC Championship and there's no path to avoiding them.

 

Because the #1 seed gives the Bills homefield throughout the playoffs. They won't have to play on WC weekend and having that extra week off allows them to get as healthy as possible. Plus, McDermott has never won a road playoff game mostly at KC, but losses at HOU and JAC as well.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

i don't think the 1 seed is the advantage you seem to, especially this year

 

final season in the stadium is fan talk tbh...players don't really care about that. we haven't shown that we're significantly stronger vs top AFC teams at home as opposed to on the road. what we have shown is an ability to smack second tier AFC teams in the playoffs so the option to avoid the stronger teams is the obvious choice

 

No offense, but all math and statistics say other wise, and if you polled every GM and HC in the NFL they would agree that the 1 seed in its current format is a SUBSTANTIAL advantage and its why every single teams primary goal is to win that if they are in contention for it.  You will never (and never have) see a team intentionally give up a seed with a bye in it because they think it gives them an "easier" path in the playoffs.  

 

The mere idea of forcing a 3rd playoff game, guaranteeing 2 are on the road, over a bye and 2 home games is pretty silly TBH.

[folz]

Great question. It is so 50/50 for me.

 

#1 seed

Pros                                                                               Cons

-One less game to play                                                -Having to face either Mahomes/Chiefs or Jackson/Baltimore

-home field advantage                                                 -Possibly having to face both KC and Balt back-to-back (tough to win two of those types of  

-To be the best you want to beat the best                    games in a row, and if you do, how much do you have left in the tank to beat the NFC's best 

                                                                                         team---granted 2 week layoff for SB.

 

#5 seed

Pros                                                                                Cons 

-Not playing Mahomes, Jackson, or Henry                -Have to win 3 games instead of 2

-Weaker competition (QB play, experience)               -May have to play 2 or 3 of those games on the road

-Refs might favor Bills in this scenario (no KC/Balt)  

 

It seems insane not to choose the #1 seed. But, gun to my head, I think the #5 seed might actually be the easier path. Yes, winning 2 or 3 games on the road is really hard, but not as hard as beating say Baltimore and KC back-to-back at home. 

 

And with the way those teams are this year (KC and Balt), sure, there is a chance that one or both of them get knocked out before they get to us (but then again, are we really going to count KC out when it comes to the playoffs?---playoff Chiefs vs. Indy, Denver, Pitt, LAC, Pats...yeah I'm not counting on them losing). 

 

Conversely, as it stands now, the playoffs would look like this: 1 Broncos, 2 Colts, 3 Pats, 4 Pitt, 5 Buf, 6 LAC, 7 Jax.

If the favored teams win WC games, and we beat the Broncos (in DEN), our path would be: @Pitt, @Denver, @INDY or @PATs. 

But, let's say the Chargers beat the Pats in the WC round (doable), then we are: @Pitt, @Indy, and either @Denver, or Home vs LAC (Chargers could beat the Broncos) 

IF, big if, the Chargers beat Pats, and Jax beats Indy, then our road is @Pitt, Home vs. LAC, and either @Denver or Home vs. Jax (unlikely Jax beats Broncos, but...).

 

If the odds are the same either way on which teams we may or may not face (#1 seed vs. #5 seed), then here is another question. Pitt should be a fairly easy win if we have to face them, so, worst case scenario for each seed---which is the harder road?

 

Balt at home

KC at home

or

@Denver

@Indy

 

Road games are tougher and Taylor is a monster, but Daniel Jones vs. Mahomes? or Nix/Jones vs. Jackson/Mahomes. Yeah, give me the #5 seed.

Edited 1 hour ago by folz

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Because the #1 seed gives the Bills homefield throughout the playoffs. They won't have to play on WC weekend and having that extra week off allows them to get as healthy as possible. Plus, McDermott has never won a road playoff game mostly at KC, but losses at HOU and JAC as well.

Really just Houston. We can’t count games before Josh. They lost in OT vs. Houston and everything had to go against them (it did). It’s really the KC games home and away (plus the home Cincy game). Those are the only playoff losses that matter. 

[Alphadawg7]

44 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That isn't true. Philly beat Green Bay, LA, and Washington to get to the Super Bowl last year. They didn't have to "beat the best," they just had to win against tier 2 and 3 opponents. Our path by comparison was Denver, Baltimore, KC. Even if you skip the Denver game I'd still take Philly's path last year over ours 100 times out of 100.

 

I don't understand Bills fans that worry about perception or narratives. The only narrative that matters is that we can't win a Super Bowl. Why are we being picky about what it looks like to get there?

 

And then Philly trounced KC.  So they still beat the best to win the Trophy.

 

But if you take out Denver, which means we are the 1 seed, that means Balt and KC would have played each other round 2, so our path is not Balt then KC.  It means we play only one of them in the AFCCG and played someone else 2nd round.  So our path is easier by having the 1 seed than it was having to go through 3 games last year.

 

So you are only proving the point that the 1 seed is in fact better. And you quite frankly cannot compare Philly's path to ours, they are a different conference, and the overall talent of the NFC teams vs AFC teams were not equal last year with AFC having way more depth of hard teams than the NFL did.  So there was never a path that was going to be harder for Philly or any team in the NFC last year compared to whoever made it the SB in the AFC.

By the way - this notion that the 1 seed is "to be the best you beat the best" is inaccurate.  By default, the 1 seed has the easier schedule.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Alphadawg7