Would you rather playoff seeding scenario?

[BuffaloBillyG]

I'll take the 5 seed and go on the road. 

 

Aside from the bye week which IMO is a huge benefit, I don't hold too much weight on home field advantage. In the last few years Buffalo has playoff losses at home to both KC and Cincinnati. Give me Pittsburgh, Denver or Indy to start the playoffs. I'm cool with that.

 

We are a running team. Running the ball travels well. And in climate controlled Indy, it would help our pass game out. 

[eball]

I get where you’re going with this but the Bills haven’t won a road playoff game in forever. I’ll take our chances at home (even though I think we have a game that travels this year).

 

[Lost]

1 minute ago, eball said:

I get where you’re going with this but the Bills haven’t won a road playoff game in forever. I’ll take our chances at home (even though I think we have a game that travels this year).

 

 

All but one of their road playoffs games went through KC

[eball]

3 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

All but one of their road playoffs games went through KC

Good point. 
 

How about the scenario where we are the 1 seed AND both Baltimore and KC miss the playoffs?

 

[Max Fischer]

Not even a close call:  #1 seed. 

 

First, you get the bye and only need to win two games. A week of rest may be the difference between key players being able to get on the field. 

 

Second, playing at home and not traveling.  

 

Three, the #1 seed is a better indicator that the team is playing well, and the Bills probably lost again to the Pats. 

 

Four, %$@# the Chiefs and Ravens. 

 

Five, there's no guarantee the other playoff games will be any easier. 

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

I would think if you win the division your more than likely the 1 seed and would have a bye week to heal and it’s a lot easier to win 2 games in a row than 3 to make the SB.

As a Pats fan, you might think that. If you said, “would you rather play at New  England 3 times or home to Baltimore & KC” it’s New England. It’s definitely not an easy question. That’s why the voting has been close.
 

The Bills and Chiefs have 10 battles with the Chiefs winning all 4 in the playoffs. The Ravens battles are less frequent but still often. The Bills have had the upper hand in the playoffs. Both of those games would be a coin flip. The Bills would be a clear favorite in all other games. It doesn’t mean that they’d always win and obviously would have to win an extra game. It’s would you rather play 3 road games where you’re the favorite by a few points (I understand they could have a home game) or 2 coin flips at home? 

[Antonio]

It is quite possible to get the No. 1 seed and either Ravens or KC are out of the playoffs, maybe even both. 

[transient]

27 minutes ago, Process said:

You're concerned with injuries so chose the scenario where we don't get a Week off?

I'm concerned with defensive injuries and chose the path with offenses that are less likely to exploit that.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This came out of a conversation in another thread but got me thinking. Would you rather be the 1 seed AND have the Chiefs & Ravens as division winners OR be the 5 seed & the Chiefs & Ravens both miss the playoffs? For me, I think that the Bills are the AFC favorite in either scenario but curious as to what others think. 
 

P.S. Try to leave out the emotions/nostalgia of “it would be really cool to play the AFC Championship as the last game at Higmark.” Let’s keep this as, “what is the easier path to a title?”

 

Curious, why are these the only options?  We very much could win the 1 seed, and if we do its unlikely the Chiefs win their Division and pretty much a certainty the Ravens won't win their division.  

 

So its much more plausible if we are the 1 seed, KC is a wildcard and Ravens maybe are a wildcard, they have low odds to even make the playoffs in general.

[mjt328]

The most important part of the #1 seed is the bye.  It gives us an extra week for injured players to rest and return to action.  One less game for players to possibly get injured.  Plus the Bills are undefeated (9-0) under Sean McDermott coming out of the bye.

 

Then you have the homefield advantage.  The Bills are 7-1 in the postseason at home under McDermott, and 0-5 on the road.  On top of that, the other elite QBs in the AFC are more vulnerable.  Patrick Mahomes has a 3-2 playoff record on the road, and Lamar Jackson is 1-2.  Not that a team should need any extra motivation in the playoffs, but maybe closing out this stadium with an AFC Championship victory would also give us an added boost.

 

I totally understand the reasoning behind wanting to avoid the Chiefs and Ravens.  One seems to have us in a mental block.  The other is a physical mismatch for our defense.  But the other advantages are just too big a deal to pass up.  

 

[GoBills808]

5seed and it's not close

 

must avoid Chiefs and Baltimore at all costs

[boyst]

42 minutes ago, eball said:

I get where you’re going with this but the Bills haven’t won a road playoff game in forever. I’ll take our chances at home (even though I think we have a game that travels this year).

 

Afcc in driving to durham to get you and we are going. Just fyi

[GoBills808]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Curious, why are these the only options?  We very much could win the 1 seed, and if we do its unlikely the Chiefs win their Division and pretty much a certainty the Ravens won't win their division.  

 

So its much more plausible if we are the 1 seed, KC is a wildcard and Ravens maybe are a wildcard, they have low odds to even make the playoffs in general.

ravens are favored to win AFCN as of today and Chiefs are basically even$ to Broncos who I don't trust 

[mjt328]

37 minutes ago, Antonio said:

It is quite possible to get the No. 1 seed and either Ravens or KC are out of the playoffs, maybe even both. 

 

People are getting WAY too caught up in the W/L record.  The chances are still very good that both will make the playoffs.

 

The Ravens have 5 losses, which seems like a lot at this time of the year.  But their upcoming schedule is very favorable, the AFC North is absolute trash, and they still play the Steelers twice.  Win both (which is very possible) and they are back in 1st Place.  Look at their remaining games, and tell me they can't finish 8-1 or 7-2 with Lamar Jackson back and healthy. 

 

The Chiefs have a much tougher schedule, and they are slowly falling behind in the AFC West race.  But they do play the Broncos two more times, so the path to catching up is still there.  At the very least, they probably need to lose 3-4 more games in order to completely miss the playoffs.  They are still too good for that to happen.  Smart money is probably on them landing a Wild Card.

 

In my opinion, the Bills best route would be getting the #1 seed... then hoping the #4 seed Ravens end up playing the #5 seed Chiefs in the Wild Card.  One eliminates the other.  Then root for one of the wild cards to knock-off the Colts or Broncos.  That way it's possible we get the bye and avoid both teams completely.

 

Edited 4 hours ago by mjt328

[strive_for_five_guy]

One seed.  One less game to play and all games at home.  Easy choice.

[Process]

28 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Curious, why are these the only options?  We very much could win the 1 seed, and if we do its unlikely the Chiefs win their Division and pretty much a certainty the Ravens won't win their division.  

 

So its much more plausible if we are the 1 seed, KC is a wildcard and Ravens maybe are a wildcard, they have low odds to even make the playoffs in general.

The Ravens are favorites to win their division...as are the Chiefs (tied with the Broncos). Us getting the 1 seed doesn't impact that. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Process

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

ravens are favored to win AFCN as of today and Chiefs are basically even$ to Broncos who I don't trust 

 

Ravens still have to play the Steelers twice in their division and the Bengals twice, who could have Burrow back for both Bengal games.  Ravens defense is still not good and they just beat 2 bad teams to get to 3 wins.  I don't trust the Ravens to win that division.  Is it possible, sure, but I have a hard time thinking they are the favorite to win it right now.  Derrick Henry is not the same guy he was last year, that OL isn't great, and their weapons still aren't great.  

 

Last year, the Ravens had the #1 defense in the AFC after they shifted Kyle for like the final 11 games of the year, and they had Henry having one of the best seasons of his era.  They don't have either of those things right now, and while I don't think the Steelers are all that great either, they are 2 games up and still face Ravens twice where if they just split its going to be really hard for Ravens to win the division unless they run table outside that game and Steelers go on a skid.  

 

Personally I think Baltimore is going to come up at least a game short of the division and it they split with both Pitt and Cincy, then they may not even make the playoffs if they lose one of NE or GB games.  

 

Im not counting the Ravens out, they still got Lamar, but they are going to have to play near perfect football to over take Steelers and in the final stretch they play Cincy 2x (who may have Burrow back too), Division leader Steelers 2x (who just trounced Indy), Green Bay, and New England.  They also play the Browns one more time, who even though lost bad to the Ravens earlier in the year, they are still a team thats upset them before, has a tough D, and has a better run game now so can't just assume its a cake walk either.  

[NewEra]

Good question Kirby.

 

I’d rather the chiefs and ravens miss the playoffs and take my chances on the road

[Kirby Jackson]

48 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Curious, why are these the only options?  We very much could win the 1 seed, and if we do its unlikely the Chiefs win their Division and pretty much a certainty the Ravens won't win their division.  

 

So its much more plausible if we are the 1 seed, KC is a wildcard and Ravens maybe are a wildcard, they have low odds to even make the playoffs in general.

The Ravens are currently the betting favorite to win their division. Us being the 1 seed actually helps those teams in their strength of record. 
 

In this scenario you’re assuming those teams win, you’re picking between 2 home games against the hardest teams vs. 3 road games against less accomplished teams. It’s a tough decision this way. It’s split right down the middle. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Kirby Jackson

[Alphadawg7]

Getting back to the original question though - there is only one correct answer.  And its not close.  It is always the 1 seed.  The value of playing 1 game less can not be over stated, not to mention playing every game at home.  And home field will be extra charged this year with every home playoff game potentially the last game ever in our stadium.  

 

But just playing one less game is the true value.  Honestly any other answer is statistically incorrect as our odds to make the Super Bowl are substantially higher with a 1 seed than anything else.  People picking wild card and facing teams like Indy doesn't really make a lot of sense to me - I mean Indy is more of a matchup problem for us than KC at this point.  Our run D vs Taylor is not a matchup I want to see in the playoffs.  And while Indy over paid, they also just added Sauce to shore up one of the weaker parts of an already pretty solid defense.  

 

1 seed all day, and twice on Sundays.